Over The Cap: Potential Cuts 2017

dallen

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2017 Potential Cuts: Safety
Posted on January 18, 2017 by Jason Fitzgerald

1. DeAngelo Hall, Redskins
Cap Saved: $4.3 million/Cash Saved: $4.3 million

This contract fell in the “thank you for your years of service category” when the Redskins signed it with Hall back in 2014. Since that time it’s been a rough ride for Hall who has missed 31 games in the first three seasons of the contract. Clearly it is time for Washington to move on especially with a large core of free agent decisions this year.

2. Jairus Byrd, Saints
Cap Saved: $3.7 million/Cash Saved: $8.3 million

You can track the Saints cap woes back a bit further than this contract but this may have been the turning point where it went from a problem into a three year long salary cap nightmare. This was a huge deal at the time with massive guarantees and one that was only made worse with an ill advised restructure after he played in just 4 games in an injury filled season. They may look to bring his pay down since the cap savings are minimal but keeping him at this number would be a mistake.

3. Darrell Stuckey, Chargers
Cap Saved: $2.9 million/Cash Saved: $2.9 million

This is one of those contracts signed for special teams with a possibility of doing more. But if the player doesn’t do more often the last year of the contract is too high which is the case here. Stuckey’s salary is nearly three times what he earned in each of the last two seasons which would seem to make cutting him a pretty realistic option.

4. Tyvon Branch, Cardinals
Cap Saved: $2.8 million/Cash Saved: $4 million

2016 marked the third time in four years that Branch ended the season on IR. He has now missed 36 games in that timespan and only once appeared in more than 7 games. There are still guarantees in this contract that might protect his spot, but Arizona shouldn’t be chasing a player like this unless there is a significant salary conversion to incentives.

5. Marcus Gilchrist, Jets
Cap Saved: $4.6 million/Cash Saved: $6 million

I think the Jets expected big things from Gilchrist when he came over in free agency but it hasn’t materialized. He was poor in coverage and the Jets secondary was routinely exploited with the safety help being non existent. Gilchrist’s salary jumps from $5 to $6 million so its hard to see them seeing the value here unless there is a pay cut. If the Jets do keep Darrelle Revis and move him to safety a $12 million investment in the position between Revis and Gilchrist would seem insane. Gilchrist could qualify for injury protection on a small portion of his salary.

6. Lardarius Webb, Ravens
Cap Saved: $5.5 million/Cash Saved: $5.5 million

The Ravens have some big decisions to make this offseason about either starting a youth movement or chasing one last time with veterans who have failed to finish over 500 in three of the last four seasons. If they decide the former Webb is likely to be released to help open up some needed cap room and save on their budget. If they continue to chase with the current team then he’ll probably finish out his contract with the team.
 

dallen

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2017 Potential Cuts: Linebacker
Posted on January 7, 2017 by Jason Fitzgerald

1. Elvis Dumervil, Ravens
Cap Saved: $6 million/Cash Saved: $6 million

Two years ago Dumervil had 17 sacks and was an All Pro selection, but his performance has plummeted since making the turn past 30. His sack total dropped to 6 in 2015, his lowest figure since 2008, and finished with just 3 sacks this year as he was slow to recover from an injury. The Ravens look to be the oldest team in the NFL an need to begin a purge of the older veterans.

2. Lamarr Houston, Bears
Cap Saved: $5 million/Cash Saved: $6 million

The decision to sign Houston was one of Chicago’s worst in recent years, which is saying something for a struggling team. Houston basically has no natural fit in the defense and will be coming off his second ACL injury in three seasons. In his three years with the Bears Houston has now missed 22 games because of injury and it would seem foolish to count on him in 2017.

3. JT Thomas, Giants
Cap Saved: $3 million/Cash Saved: $3 million

Thomas was only with the Giants for one season before the approached him to take a paycut from $3 million to $1.625 million, to remain on the team in 2016 and its unlikely he would be offered the same deal this year. Thomas spent the entire season on IR and the Giants defense certainly does not need him, especially at $3 million next year.

4. Emmanuel Lamur, Vikings
Cap Saved: $2.8 million/Cash Saved: $2.8 million

Lamur should thank head coach Mike Zimmer for this contract. Lamur had one decent season with the Bengals but failed to produce in his walk year. The Bengals rarely let players go and if they are willing to do that it should raise a red flag. Lamur’s decline continued as he logged barely any playing time on the Vikings defense and finished the year with just three tackles.

5. Erin Henderson, Jets
Cap Saved: $2.8 million/Cash Saved: $2.8 million

Henderson spent much of the season on the NFI list, appearing in just 5 games and notching 12 tackles. Henderson needed a standout year to ensure a roster spot in 2017 and with the Jets likely moving to a youth movement it would not seem that Henderson did enough to remain on the team.

6. D’Qwell Jackson, Colts
Cap Saved: $5.5 million/Cash Saved: $5.5 million

Jackson’s signing is another example of some of the problems that have plagued the Colts approach to roster building the past few years. Jackson was released by the Browns and the Colts quickly pounced on a plus 30 linebacker rather than looking for younger talent to put on defense. Jackson has had an ok career with the Colts but his numbers dropped last season and he ended the year suspended at a crucial time in the Colts season.

7. DeAndre Levy, Lions
Cap Saved: $1.2 million/Cash Saved: $6 million

Levy probably has the best timing of almost any player in the NFL striking a big $8.4 million a year extension with the Lions right before his career was basically derailed by injuries. Since signing the contract Levy has only appeared in 6 games and started 4 of them. Levy peaked at the perfect time, exploding for 121 solo tackles in 2014 as the Lions made a big playoff push primarily based on the strength of their defense. The Lions had no need to extend him in 2015 but with salaries rising at the position they rushed it to avoid any issues down the line with a player who looked like he became a star. They may offer him a pay cut before releasing him. If they fail to release him his salary will become guaranteed for the year.

8. Koa Misi, Dolphins
Cap Saved: $4.2 million/Cash Saved: $4.2 million

Misi has finished the last two years on IR for the Dolphins and hasn’t appeared in 16 games since his rookie year in 2010. Misi will be 30 next season and the Dolphins should look to find a more impactful player. It would not be a shock if Miami renegotiated his contract to pay him as a low cost reserve, but his $4.2M salary is the highest of his entire career so it is highly unlikely they would risk that number.

9. Dan Skuta, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $4.1 million/Cash Saved: $4.1 million

I’m not sure there is anyone, not even Skuta himself, that understood why the Jaguars opted to sign Skuta to a $20.5 million contract in 2015. Skuta has only started 10 games for Jacksonville in two years and produced 1.5 sacks and 46 tackles for the team. He doesn’t really have a natural fit on the Jaguars defense and would be better utilized in a different defense. The only reason I don’t have him higher on this list is because the Jaguars decisions on player contracts generally confuses me and I’m very often wrong, so Ill assume the same applies here.

10. Rey Maualuga, Bengals
Cap Saved: $3.7 million/Cash Saved: $3.7 million

The Bengals dependency on homegrown players has led to Maualuga probably have a longer and more lucrative run than he would have had if he began his career with any other team in the NFL. With the Bengals finally looking much older on the field this past season players like Maualuga should probably be cut. He’ll be 30 next year and finished the season with just 17 tackles in 14 games.

11. Ahmad Brooks, 49ers
Cap Saved: $7.8 million/Cash Saved: $7.8 million

I probably should have Brooks much lower on this list since it seems every year I believe he will be released and every year San Francisco holds onto him. Brooks is a steady enough second pass rusher that you can generally pencil in for 6 sacks a year, but at his current cost, even when any de-escalators kick in, I am not sure the value is there for a 33 year old player on a 2 win team.

12. Pernell McPhee, Bears
Cap Saved: $6.3 million/Cash Saved: $7.3 million

McPhee cashed in a few years ago with a 7.5 sack season and a great deal of hype in his walk year with the expectation that even more playing time would lead to more impact. Often that doesn’t work out as planned and McPhee looks to be in that category. McPhee struggled with injuries most of the season and lost his role as a starter after just one year. That key reserve role suits him fine but he’s paid to make an impact not be a reserve. The Bears may very well be chasing a sunk cost on this one.

13. Mychal Kendricks, Eagles
Cap Saved: $1.8 million/Cash Saved: $5 million

Kendricks only started 8 games in 2016 and only played in about 27% of the Eagles snaps. He clearly fell out of favor with the coaching staff and I’m sure there are some who may be questioning the effort. Still he is young and the cap savings are minimal, but if he isn’t motivated and that’s the primary issue, better to put the $5 million in actual salary to better use. They will need to make an early decision or look for trade partners as a portion of his salary will become guaranteed early in the offseason.

14. David Harris, Jets
Cap Saved: $6.5 million/Cash Saved: $6.5 million

Harris has very quietly been able to negotiate two of the more team friendly contracts in the NFL over the last six or seven years. From a football standpoint there is probably little way to justify this salary for Harris who is an 85% playtime player who should be on the field for at the most 50% of the snaps. But Harris is also the leader of the defense and along with Nick Mangold probably one of two Jets that are considered their best of the last ten years. I would not be surprised if Harris signs a two year extension that brings his cap number down a bit rather than being cut.

15. Brian Cushing, Texans
Cap Saved: $5.6 million/Cash Saved: $6.8 million

I put the likelihood of Cushing being cut as low, but he has a $9.5 million cap charge and is no longer the type of player to justify that number. His $6.8 million salary is high, fourth among ILBs in the NFL, but the Texans are still a competitive team and competitive teams lean towards the short term and they may not see a better alternative out there. They may see if they can reduce his number for the year with a promise of free agency in 2018. His salary in 2018 increases to $8.5 million and it would seem release at that point is a given anyway.
 

dallen

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2017 Potential Cuts: Defensive Tackle
Posted on January 5, 2017 by Jason Fitzgerald

1. Paul Soliai, Panthers
Cap Saved: $2.5 million/Cash Saved: $2.5 million

This was kind of an odd signing but sometimes when a player is cut from a division rival other teams take more interest. Soliai never really fit in with the Panthers and barely played this season logging under 15% playtime. There is no need for the Panthers to spend this much on a player they don’t envision to even be in the rotation.

2. Haloti Ngata, Lions
Cap Saved: $5.8 million/Cash Saved: $5.8 million

There was a time when Ngata was one of the most talked about (and highest paid) defensive linemen in the NFL. That time should be at an end now. Statistically Ngata is pretty much at the bottom of his career and at 33 he may just decide to retire. Even if he doesn’t want to retire it is hard to see the Lions keeping him with a cap hit close to $8 million on the year.

3. Roy Miller, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $4 million/Cash Saved: $4.1 million

The Jaguars have a few veterans on their line and of those I would think Miller is the most likely to be released. Miller will be 30 next season and is coming off an injury that limited him to just 6 games. He wasn’t necessarily effective or a big part of those six games either. Since he likely isn’t going to project to rush the passer he will likely be the odd man out.

4. Earl Mitchell, Dolphins
Cap Saved: $4 million/Cash Saved: $4 million

Mitchell probably needed a standout season to ensure he would play out his contract in 2017 and he didn’t have that this year while healthy. In Mitchell’s 9 games this season he has 11 tackles which isn’t nearly enough to be a lock for next season. I’d expect Miami to be willing to tinker with their roster next year and cutting Mitchell gives the more money to do tht.

5. Pat Sims, Bengals
Cap Saved: $1.1 million/Cash Saved: $1.1 million

If there is a team that needs to get younger in 2017 it’s the Bengals whose roster has gotten older and older and the results were not there this season. While Sims does not make much it probably makes more sense to get younger if possible.
 

dallen

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2017 Potential Cuts: Defensive End
Posted on January 2, 2017 by Jason Fitzgerald

I’ll turn my attention now to the defense with the defensive end position. If you are new to these pieces, in each article I review a position and give an opinion on some of the players who I believe are in danger of being released or traded in the offseason. Next up should be defensive tackles.

1. Mario Williams, Dolphins
Cap Saved: $8.5 million/Cash Saved: $8.5 million

When we talk about great contracts often we forget to mention Williams who has leveraged draft status and name value as well as any player ever has. Miami took a shot on Williams and hoped his problems were related to clashing with his prior coach in Buffalo, but the reality is that he is no longer the same player. Williams has basically fallen off a cliff in the last two years and has just 1.5 sacks and 9 tackles through week 16.

2. Arthur Jones, Colts
Cap Saved: $5.1 million/Cash Saved: $6.2 million

When people criticize the Colts front office for the job they have done over the last few seasons, Jones is usually front and center of that criticism. The Colts took a gamble on Jones assuming that he could continue improve even further than where he was with the Ravens but instead he regressed, missed a year due to injury, and also faced a suspension.

3. Tyson Jackson, Falcons
Cap Saved: $2.7 million/Cash Saved: $4.3 million

This was one of those signings that never really made sense from the start, but the Falcons made a few desperation plays that year to try to fix the defense and have basically been stuck with Jackson for three years because of it. Jackson has produced 0 sacks and just 28 tackles in 3 seasons. He’s not really a positional fit for the team and its time for the Falcons to move on.

4. Jared Odrick, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $8.5 million/Cash Saved: $8.5 million

You can put Odrick’s name down in a pretty long list of head scratching contracts signed by the Jaguars in recent years. Odrick is versatile ad can play a number of positions but he isn’t a standout at any position and after missing 10 games Im not sure of the logic in bringing back a 30 year old, overpaid player on a really bad football team.

5. Connor Barwin, Eagles
Cap Saved: $7.8 million/Cash Saved: $7.8 million

The change in defense didn’t seem to click well with Barwin who is currently near his career low in sacks and tackles. While nobody believed he would ever replicate his 14 sack season the Eagles do have a number of questions to consider here. Is Barwin a bad fit for the defense? Is Barwin’s age a reason for the decline. I believe the Eagles front office likes Barwin so he could be more of a lower cost extension candidate, but its hard to justify this number given his production.

6. Brian Robison, Vikings
Cap Saved: $5.6 million/Cash Saved: $5.6 million

With the Vikings season not going the way they hoped its probably time for the team to begin making sure they don’t waste too much on older players and Robison fits that bill. Robison will be 34 next season and it is hard to justify this kind of salary on someone who should start to be see his playing time phased down. Better players are around the NFL have taken on lower salaries at this stage of their career and I can’t see any reason why Robison won’t be asked to do the same or be released if he refuses.

7. Brooks Reed, Falcons
Cap Saved: $2.2 million/Cash Saved: $4.1 million

I’m not entirely sure what the Falcons expected from Reed when they signed him to a 5 year, $22.5M contract but I would imagine it was more production than they have received. Reed has been unable to win over a starting job and plays in under 40% of the snaps. The team needs more of a rush up front and it certainly is not going to come from Reed.

8. Sheldon Richardson, Jets
Cap Saved: $8.1 million/Cash Saved: $8.1 million

I don’t think the Jets will actually release Richardson unless he has another off the field incident but they should do everything in their power to try to trade him. Richardson acted through most of the year as if he was trying to get himself moved off team and the Jets have a logjam at his position and in many ways treat Richardson as the odd man out. He is incredibly talented but there are questions about that talent showing itself all the time. The question is can the Jets get a team to bite on a high draft pick in a trade or not. If not they may have a very unhappy player on their hands next season unless they can find a way to utilize him better.

9. Eugene Sims, Rams
Cap Saved: $3.3 million/Cash Saved: $3.3 million

There is nothing wrong with having a player like Sims as a rotational player, but there are two things to consider here. One is that the price is a little steep for a player who really can’t rush the quarterback even when given the opportunity. Secondly it seems as if the Rams are still pretty far away from competing and savings from his contract could be siphoned to the offense which needs a facelift.

10. George Johnson, Buccaneers
Cap Saved: $2.2 million/Cash Saved: $2.2 million

Johnson was part of one of the odder minor contract squabbles a few years ago when as a RFA the Lions disputed the offer sheet he signed with Tampa Bay before the agreed to simply trade him to Tampa. Johnson didnty come close to duplicating his 6 sack season in his first year with Tampa, finishing with no sacks in 11 games. He spent all of 2016 on IR.

11. Desmond Bryant, Browns
Cap Saved: $3 million/Cash Saved: $3.5 million

Figuring out anything about the Browns is near impossible but I thought it made sense to include Bryant on this list since he spent the year on NFI after getting hurt lifting weights. Bryant is one of those players who can be very productive certain weeks but not on others. The Browns have already redone his contract to be more reflective of his overall production and did pay him while on NFI a reasonable salary which makes me think they are keeping him, though its entirely possible they redid the contract to hope to trade him in the offseason.
 

dallen

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2017 Potential Cuts: Interior O-Linemen
Posted on December 30, 2016 by Jason Fitzgerald

Today we are finishing up our look at possible cuts on offense with a focus on the interior of the offensive line. In general I think this is a position where cuts don’t happen as much because salaries are generally on the lower end, except for younger players who have recently signed and are in no danger of a release.


1. Brandon Fusco, Vikings
Cap Saved: $3.2 million/Cash Saved: $4 million

The Vikings probably have the worst offensive line in the NFL and Fusco is certainly part of that. Among right guards Fusco’s $4 million salary ranks 7th and his $4.8 million cap number ranks 8th so it’s difficult to see the justification for his return. The $3.2 million in cap savings is actually the second highest figure at his position so the reward is clearly there for Minnesota if released.

2. Evan Smith, Buccaneers
Cap Saved: $4.5 million/Cash Saved: $4.5 million

Smith lost his starting job to Joe Hawley last season and is little more than a backup at this stage. $4.5 million is far too high a figure for any of the interior positions to pay for someone who may start one or two games and play in about 15% of the team’s offensive snaps. Smith has looked good at times in the past but things didnt really work out with the Bucs. Perhaps a hance of scenery will do him well.

3. Orlando Franklin, Chargers
Cap Saved: $2.8 million/Cash Saved: $6 million

The Chargers need to begin the process of upgrading their offensive line, not expecting the norms to change by simply awaiting another year. I would see the Chargers retaining Franklin simply because he has a salary guarantee that vests early in free agency and long before the draft, but I’d expect them to approach him about a pay cut similar to King Dunlap last season.

4. DJ Fluker, Chargers
Cap Saved: $8.8 million/Cash Saved: $8.8 million

I get the concept of chasing draft expectations and allowing that bias to sometimes cloud your judgement, but it would be hard to believe that the Chargers will objectively look at Fluker as a top tier player, which this salary makes him. Fluker allowed over 4 sacks on the season and has been hit with 6 penalties, which is an improvement from 2015 but not enough of one to justify the salary. I would not be stunned if the team extends him on a contract that guarantees him $8 million for the next four or five years, but they should not lock into this season which will become fully guaranteed at the start of free agency.

5. Nick Mangold, Jets
Cap Saved: $9.1 million/Cash Saved: $9.1 million

As a Jets fan this is a difficult one to write about. Mangold has been the best Jets player for the last decade and will clearly wind up in the teams ring of honor whenever he decides to retire. But Mangold is coming off of an injury filled season and the Jets look to be in need of a total makeover, which normally would not include a 33 year old highly compensated center. The Jets could offer him a retirement special contract that might keep him around until he wants to retire and pay him his $9M in exchange for playing out his career at a lower cost.

6. Alvin Bailey, Browns
Cap Saved: $1.6 million/Cash Saved: $2 million

The Browns certainly don’t need the cap space, but Bailey was one of the new regimes few free agent signings. Bailey did not contribute much, though I’m not sure he was expected to do so, but I think the late season suspension could be enough to move on. The team will need to make an effort to improve their line next season regardless of what they decide.
 

dallen

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2017 Potential Cuts: Offensive Tackle
Posted on December 28, 2016 by Jason Fitzgerald

Keeping up with our look at potential cuts around the NFL we turn our attention today to the offensive tackle position, where a number of players took one year contracts with an option to hopefully cash in next season.

1. Ryan Clady, Jets
Cap Saved: $10.5 million/Cash Saved: $10.5 million

The Jets took a chance that Clady, who was once an elite player, could shake off a few years worth of injuries and play at a high level but it never happened. Clady performed poorly with the Jets this year and then landed on IR, his third time in four years he finished the regular season on the injured list. At this point Clady will be viewed different than a Jake Long type who has the name value to carry them to another contract but an injury history that makes them a high risk. The Jets technically have an option on Clady which they clearly will not exercise, in effect cutting him and making him a free agent.

2. Russell Okung, Broncos
Cap Saved: $10.9 million/Cash Saved: $11.5 million

Though Okung has played in almost every snap this season, the Broncos are not in the business of overpaying players because they may not have another option already lined up. Okung has been ok in his first year with the Broncos, but he needed to be have the Broncos pick up an option that would pay him $11.5 million in 2017, nearly double his 2016 salary. I do believe that the Broncos will make an attempt to rework this contract but I believe Okung’s level of play is probably closer to the mid tier $8M tackles than the upper echelon tackle market that his option would indicate.

3. Donald Stephenson, Broncos
Cap Saved: $3 million/Cash Saved: $4 million

John Elway often gets a great deal of credit for being tough with player decisions and then being proven right, but this is a spot where he clearly got it wrong. Stephenson was graded by PFF as one of the worst two linemen in the NFL. He is a penalty machine and hasn’t had much lock blocking opponents. Stephenson has a $4M guarantee that kicks in on the 5th day of the league year so they need to cut him before that date.

4. Sebastian Vollmer, Patriots
Cap Saved: $2.25 million/Cash Saved: $3.25 million

Vollmer was set to be a free agent in 2017 but by spending the year on the PUP list he will see his contract toll and he will remain on the Patriots roster for 2017. He lost his position to Marcus Cannon who was extended on long term deal just a few weeks ago so it seems pretty clear that the Patriots will move away from Vollmer this year unless they see value in him as a backup.

5. King Dunlap, Chargers
Cap Saved: $5.125 million/Cash Saved: $6.75 million

The Chargers signed Dunlap to a $7M per year contract in 2015 that certainly surprised me as prior to that Dunlap was basically a $2M a year player. Just one year into the contract the Chargers seemingly realized their mistake and cut his salary for the year by $1.2 million. Next year that salary increases by nearly $3 million and this time they will probably just admit their mistake and move on.

6. Austin Howard, Raiders
Cap Saved: $3.6 million/Cash Saved: $5 million

Howard ended up with the right tackle job because of injury but did not distinguish himself this season and was recently benched. Howard probably never lived up the Raiders expectations when they signed him though he has been relatively durable. At this stage Howard’s future may be as a jack of all trades types on another team.

7. Breno Giacomini, Jets
Cap Saved: $4.3 million/Cash Saved: $4.3 million

It was kind of surprising that the Jets opted to retain Giacomini this season, but I guess after switching their left tackle they wanted more continuity on the line. However that never happened as Giacomini spent most of the year on the PUP list and then averaged around ¾ of a penalty and sack allowed per game before going on IR to finish the year.

8. Kelvin Beachum, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $8.5 million/Cash Saved: $12.5 million

Beachum was the other tackle along with Okung who opted for a one year “prove it” style contract and I think just about everything that applies to Okung applies to Beachum. The only reason I don’t have him rated as high on the list is because of the team he plays for. The Broncos are very demanding with their contracts while the Jaguars are on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. It’s very possible that the Jaguars could decide that Beachum is competent enough to honor a pretty high final four years and pick up his $5 million option.

9. Joe Reitz, Colts
Cap Saved: $2.5 million/Cash Saved: $2.5 million

Reitz was benched this year and with just one year remaining on his contract may be in line to be replaced by a younger player with more upside. At a price this low you cant discount them keeping someone around, but the Colts offensive line is pretty poor and if you are being in Indianapolis it’s probably not a good sign for the future.

10. Jah Reid, Chiefs
Cap Saved: $2.1 million/Cash Saved: $2.85 million

Reid signed a moderate contract extension in late 2015, after becoming a starter for the team, but I’m not sure there is a role left for him anymore now that they signed Mitchell Schwartz. They have younger players on the line so unless they want him as an insurance policy, which is possible since he isn’t very expensive, I’m not sure why they would keep him.
 

dallen

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2017 Potential Cuts: Tight End
Posted on December 27, 2016 by Jason Fitzgerald

1. Julius Thomas, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $4.7 million/Cash Saved: $7.1 million

This is one of the worst contracts in the NFL for a team and one that has been typical of the many problems the Jaguars have had in rebuilding via free agency. Thomas had never played in 16 games in his entire career, twice finishing with under 10 yards and once under 500 yards, when the Jaguars made the bold move to make him one of the highest paid tight ends in NFL history. Not surprisingy he has failed to reach 500 yards or 16 games in either of his years in Jacksonville. Thomas has the fifth largest cap charge and 3rd largest salary among tight ends in 2017. The one thing that might prevent his release is that the Jaguars included an additional $3 million injury guarantee for 2017 that becomes fully guaranteed five days after the Super Bowl. If Thomas is unable to pass a physical the Jaguars will owe him that money in the event he is cut at a later date. Still the team needs a complete makeover and losing $3 million is better than sinking $7 million in a bad investment.

2. Ben Watson, Ravens
Cap Saved: $3 million/Cash Saved: $3 million

Watson signed a two year contract with the Ravens this year, but never played a down for the team after being injured in the preseason. Part of the reason I would imagine that he was signed was because of the uncertainty around Dennis Pitta, but Pitta had a productive and injury free season for the first time in a while, which only hurts Watson’s chances of remaining. He’ll be 37 next season and even if he wasn’t coming off of injury the Ravens need to get much younger if they want to being to turn things around.

3. Niles Paul, Redskins
Cap Saved: $2 million/Cash Saved: $2 million

It’s tough to stick in the NFL when you get the injury prone label and Paul, having played just 8 games in the last two years, is probably tagged at this point. Paul showed promise in 2014 with his 500 yard season but was an afterthought in the time he was healthy this season. Washington has far more important contracts to use his $2 million for.

4. Luke Stocker, Buccaneers
Cap Saved: $1.7 million/Cash Saved: $1.7 million

Stocker has a limited role for the Buccaneers and was graded as one of the worst tight ends in the NFL in 2016 by Pro Football Focus. Roles such as his can be filled by a minimum salaried veteran or a higher upside rookie. When you have a team with a young quarterback on his rookie contract you have to be aggressive to improve and every penny can help I that regard.

5. Lee Smith, Raiders
Cap Saved: $3 million/Cash Saved: $3 million

Lee Smith is a pretty good blocker and is certainly well liked by the players and organization, but Oakland is ready to start making their next step in contract growth and I don’t see paying $3 million to essentially an extra lineman as a part of that. That doesn’t mean Smith, who missed most of this year with a leg injury, will be gone from the team, but generally I would expect a team to pay half this salary for someone performing Smith’s role.

6. Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $3.25 million/Cash Saved: $3.5 million

Every now and then teams have certain players that they just fall in love with whose contract status pretty much defies logic and Lewis is one of those players. Despite missing 13 games from 2013 through 2015 and seeing his yardage go from 540 to 359 to 206 to 226 yards, the Jaguars still signed a 3 year, $12 million contract with $5 million guaranteed. Lewis is a decent enough blocker, but offers little else. He only played in 10 games this year before the injury bug hit again and despite the $1 million guarantee should either be cut or asked to play the year out for $1 million plus incentives based on playing time and performance.

7. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Jets
Cap Saved: $1.14 million/Cash Saved: $1.14 million

The Jets claimed Seferian-Jenkins off waivers when the Buccaneers released him for off the field issues, but I’m not sure anyone can explain why they claimed him. The Jets barely used him this year and in his brief appearances failed to impress. Unless a new offensive coordinator is hired that sees great potential, we should not expect him to return.

8. Lance Kendricks, Rams
Cap Saved: $4.25 million/Cash Saved: $4.25 million

I almost didn’t include Kendricks here because he has one of the highest amount of snaps in the NFL and realistically the Rams aren’t going to be able to fill that void unless they draft a tight end. But with some uncertainty about the staff and GM position next year I don’t think you can completely discount the possibility of moving on and using that money to try to improve the offensive line. Still I look at this the way I would a Brent Celek, who I did not include here, which is a longer shot to happen.
 

dallen

Senior Tech
Joined
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Messages
8,466
2017 Potential Cuts: Wide Receiver
Posted on December 22, 2016 by Jason Fitzgerald

Our look ahead to potential cuts in 2017 turns to the wide receiver position.

1. Victor Cruz, Giants
Cap Saved: $7.5 million/Cash Saved: $7.5 million

Teams often get a reputation for being heartless when it comes to contract decisions, especially with players off injury, but the Giants have done pretty well by Cruz who has struggled with injuries over the last two years. Cruz never matched his production off his breakout 2011 season and this year has seen some of his playing time and targets be eaten up by rookies as the season as worn on. It’s possible the Giants will lean more on Cruz in the playoff stretch, but barring a miracle finish to the year it would seem likely that this is the end of his Giants career.

2. Danny Amendola, Patriots
Cap Saved: $6.5 million/Cash Saved: $6.5 million

The Patriots signed Amendola to be their next Wes Welker and that never came close to actually happening. Pretty much every season with Amendola has been the same- miss a few games from injury, have one surprising big game, take a pay cut to remain in New England. I would lean towards the time for pay cuts to be done and Amendola to be out next season. They have Chris Hogan signed for the next few years and Malcolm Mitchell is also solidifying himself in the rotation which should leave Amendola as the odd man out.

3. Eddie Royal, Bears
Cap Saved: $5 million/Cash Saved: $5 million

Outside of costing a few million less than Brandon Marshall it’s hard to find any logical reason for replacing Marshall with Royal and guaranteeing Royal $9 million in the process. Maybe they were blindsided by his fluky touchdown production in San Diego but it was a pretty lofty guarantee for someone who most teams would peg as a 3. He has basically been non-existent in his time in Chicago, playing in just 18 games over two years, averaging under 35 yards a game on a paltry 8.7 YPR with just 3 touchdowns.

4. Harry Douglas, Titans
Cap Saved: $3.75 million/Cash Saved: $3.75 million

While things have gone better for the Titans this year, Douglas has had no part in their improvement. Douglas has played in under 20% of the Titans offensive snaps and has a statline of just 10 reception for 162 yards which has made him one of the worst values in the NFL. Douglas will be 33 next year which makes it even less likely for him to return.

5. Steve Johnson, Chargers
Cap Saved: $3.5 million/Cash Saved: $3.5 million

Johnson has had a nice career with three 1,000 yard seasons in Buffalo, but those days are long behind Johnson. Johnson more or less filled the Royal role of touchdown grabber in San Diego in 2015 when healthy, but has missed the entire 2016 season because of injury. The Chargers can’t come back in 2016 with a 30 year old Johnson, who hasn’t played in 16 games since 2012, Keenan Allen, who has missed 23 games in the last two years, and a 37 year old Antonio Gates. Allen and Gates are likely safe which should make this decision easy.

6. Jarius Wright, Vikings
Cap Saved: $1.48 million/Cash Saved: $2.6 million

The Vikings are one of those teams that often takes a glass half full approach on some extensions which I believe is what they did with Wright, assuming they could lock in a potential number 2 receiver for number 3 money. After just one year he has fallen to 6th on the receiver depth chart and has just 6 receptions for 43 yards with multiple inactives over the course of the year. On a $/performance basis he ranks about on par with the players who missed all but a game or two because of injury, which arguably makes him the worst value at the position, even though his salary is not massive. I’d have put him higher on this list but he is still at an age where he can be productive and teams sometimes will chase that performance for an extra year. Wright has a small guarantee that will vest on the 5th day of the year so that will be the decision date for Minnesota.

7. Torrey Smith, 49ers
Cap Saved: $4.8 million/Cash Saved: $8 million

A few years ago Smith looked like he was going to be one of the highest paid receivers in the NFL, before he tailed off in his free agent season and struggled with drops. His situation hasn’t really improved in San Francisco and they don’t even have a quarterback in place to take advantage of his best asset which is his speed down the field. Smith only had 663 receiving yards last year and probably won’t surpass 300 this season unless he is recovered from a concussion to play in two meaningless games at the end of the year. Smith has an injury protected salary in 2017 but as long as he is healthy by April 1 the 49ers won’t owe him anything else if they release him.

8. Eric Decker, Jets
Cap Saved: $5.75 million/Cash Saved: $7.25 million

The Jets should be entering yet another rebuilding phase in 2017 and that should not leave a big opportunity for Decker, who is coming off two injuries that could have him slow to return anyway. The Jets have three younger receivers on the team that they would like to use in the future and that should leave room for, at the most, one veteran receiver. It would seem that Decker would not be that veteran target.

9. Brandon Marshall, Jets
Cap Saved: $7.5 million/Cash Saved: $7.5 million

Outside of the injury issues you can re-read the paragraph on Decker and it pretty much all applies to Marshall. Unless the Jets are going to avoid rebuilding and try to use free agency to build a team to compete next year is there a point to having a 33 year old receiver who has struggled even more so than usual with drops if you can possibly move him for a late draft pick?
 

dallen

Senior Tech
Joined
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Messages
8,466
2017 Potential Cuts: Running Back
Posted on December 21, 2016 by Jason Fitzgerald

Over the next few weeks I’ll be looking ahead to players who may be cut/traded/renegotiated in 2017. The first entry was for the QB position and today I’ll look at the running backs in the NFL, who may see 3 of the top 5 contracts drop off the charts next year.

1. Jamaal Charles, Chiefs
Cap Saved: $7 million/Cash Saved: $7 million

Charles is very popular with Chiefs fans, but he has only been active for 8 games in the last two years, and only a real participant in five of those games. He has had multiple injuries and even for healthy players, the age of 31 is usually not considered a strong age for high level play at the position. Charles $7 million cap hit is the 4th highest and his $7 million salary is 2nd highest among all running backs. The Chiefs have other concerns with their salary cap and have already moved on from Charles on the field.

2. Adrian Peterson, Vikings
Cap Saved: $18 million/Cash Saved: $18 million

The last of the monster running back contracts has amazingly made it all the way to 2016. How much of an outlier is this contract? His $18 million 2017 salary is $11 million higher than the next highest paid running back in the NFL. Peterson looked like he may have been slowing down in 2015 after the fast start, had a bad start to 2016, and ended up injured for most of this season. He’ll be 32 years old in 2017 and the Vikings need to start looking toward the future and not the past. Is it possible he will be back? I’m sure it’s possible but I can’t imagine any possible way he would be brought back at a price anywhere near this. Even taking the legend status into account $6 million should be his max, and even that seems high.

3. Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Cap Saved: $4.75 million/Cash Saved: $6.25 million

This should be the last of the old Panthers albatross contracts that really confined the Panthers front office over the last three years to come off the books. Stewart is the 3rd highest paid running bank when ranked by APY, has the 3rd highest cap charge and the 4th highest salary in 2017. His last (and only) 1,000 yard season came back in 2009. He has a nose for the end zone with 14 scores in 23 games over the last two years, but hes always an injury risk and pretty much a bruising style runner in an era where you pay for dynamic players. Not sure what logic there would be to keeping him on his current contract other than just being familiar with him.

4. Ryan Mathews, Eagles
Cap Saved: $4 million/Cash Saved: $4 million

Mathews is a difficult player to judge. When he is healthy and given opportunities he can be as dangerous as top level backs in the league. But he is often banged up and the more carries he gets in one game probably means he’ll be ineffective the following week or two. The Eagles use a committee system and at one point this year it seemed Mathews was the odd man out before injuries brought him back into the spotlight. Even if he closes the year out well I think the Eagles have better areas to use $4 million.

5. James Starks, Packers
Cap Saved: $3 million/Cash Saved: $3 million

Starks had a decent 2015 season as a reserve and spot starter which helped him land his contract with the Packers, but 2016 has been an entirely different story. Ineffective play, some injuries, bad luck, etc… has marred the year for him and it would seem that the Packers have found the players who will be playing this position next year.

6. Alfred Morris, Cowboys
Cap Saved: $1.7 million/Cash Saved: $1.7 million

I though Morris, who exploded onto the scene a few years ago before falling out of favor in Washington, was going to be a sneaky good signing for the Cowboys, but, with how well Ezekiel Elliot has been, Morris has basically been invisible all season. He got one opportunity in their blowout of Cleveland and didn’t really distinguish himself. They can get that same production and probably a more versatile back for a lower cost.

7. Rashad Jennings, Giants
Cap Saved: $2.5 million/Cash Saved: $2.5 million

The Giants use Jennings more than any other back on their team, but the results have been mediocre at best. Jennings is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry and does little to take the pressure of Eli Manning and the passing game. While the offensive line is partly to blame for Jennings problems, the Giants could use a more dynamic and younger (Jennings will be 32 next year) player.

8. Chris Ivory, Jaguars
Cap Saved: ($1 million)/Cash Saved: $2 million

What the Jaguars saw in Ivory when they signed him to a $6.4 million per year contract this past offseason is one of the great mysteries of free agency. Ivory still has $3 million in guarantees on his contract which is the only reason I didn’t put him higher on this list. Teams often chase bad investments, but the Jaguars should follow the lead of teams like the Bucs and just release him rather than sinking more money into a player. Cap space isn’t really a concern for Jacksonville so losing $1 million for the year should not be a big deal and it can send a message to all the overpaid players in the locker room from a new staff that this is not an acceptable level of play.

9. Anthony Sherman, Chiefs
Cap Saved: $1.8 million/Cash Saved: $1.8 million

Sherman plays a position that simply isn’t utilized that much in the NFL as evidenced by his playing time which is under 20%. Obviously there are situations where he does important things for Kansas City, but given the team’s needs for cap room for other players in 2017 someone like Sherman could be expendable.

10. Darren Sproles, Eagles
Cap Saved: $4 million/Cash Saved: $4 million

I put Sproles much lower on my list than the other players, but I also can not see a scenario in which both Mathews and Sproles return, so I think you have to include both players on a list like this. Sproles is still an effective 3rd down receiver and is a threat on punt returns. The negative is that he will be 34 years old which is way old for a running back, even one who doesn’t have the wear on his body that many others do.
 

dallen

Senior Tech
Joined
Jan 1, 2000
Messages
8,466
2017 Potential Cuts: Quarterback
Posted on December 19, 2016 by Jason Fitzgerald

As we inch closer to the end of the season I’ll be looking at each position in the NFL and giving my opinions on some players who could be released or traded in the offseason. We’ll start off with quarterback.

1. Jay Cutler, Bears
Cap Saved: $14 million/Cash Saved: $15 million

This should be the easiest decision in the NFL. Cutler will have missed 11 games this year and hasn’t posted more than 6 wins in a season since 2012. Cutler was among the last of the mediocre veteran QBs to cash in big with the huge guarantees before the teams began to use more sophisticated escalators and vesting guarantees for question mark players and that made him seem even more overvalued. Cutler only has 3 winning seasons in his entire career, none of which were more than 10 win seasons. The Bears could look to try to trade him, but I’m not sure what kind of career rebirth at 34 years old anyone should expect from Cutler to take on $15 million for the year. While he does have $2.5 million tied to health I think teams should want to put much more than that tied to performance to bring him on board, though desperation at the position always leads to crazy decisions.

2. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers
Cap Saved: $16.9 million/Cash Saved: $16.9 million

Kaepernick has the ability to void his contract so I would say it is likely he will void the deal before being released, but either way he should not be a member of the 49ers in 2017. The fall of Kaepernick has been among the biggest in the NFL after showing so much potential in 2012 and 2013. As the team and coaching staff fell apart around him so did Kaepernick. He is still a tremendous athlete and at times can be brilliant, but at other times awful. You can’t be a big time player in the NFL when for every 300 yard game you put up you are just as likely to have a game where you complete just 45% of your passes for less than 150 yards. He should get an opportunity to compete for a starting job somewhere, but for about 35% of his current salary. I think any team that plays in the cold should also stay away.

3. Nick Foles, Chiefs
Cap Saved: $10.75 million/Cash Saved: $10.75 million

Foles signed a “funny money” contract that paid him a very low salary in the first year of the contract but had an inflated second year number in the event he started and claimed the job from Alex Smith. Technically Foles will not be released as the Chiefs have an option on the season which they will decline and that should make Foles count towards the compensatory pick process. Given that the Chiefs don’t have a lot of cap space this year and extensions likely, they could be in a chance to qualify for that pick. Foles did play well enough in two games this year to where it’s possible they could stick with him over Alex Smith, but Foles’ career has gone so bad since his one miracle with the Eagles that doing that wouldn’t make much sense. My guess is he will explore free agency and if no deal comes around that gives him a chance to start he will re-sign with the Chiefs for a few million as a backup.

4. Tony Romo, Cowboys
Cap Saved: $5.1 million/Cash Saved: $14 million

I’m sure there are more than a few people wondering why Romo isn’t higher on this list all things considered. Since I am writing this with 2 weeks left in the regular season and before the playoffs I can’t discount the possibility that Dak Prescott does end up benched in January if he has a bad half. If Romo comes in and wins in the playoffs or in the Super Bowl there will be a legit QB controversy in Dallas and Romo may stick around despite his NFL leading $24M+ cap charge, especially since they only gain $5 million by moving him. I do expect the Cowboys to be able to trade Romo on his existing contract either for a player or a draft pick rather than releasing him outright. If I was running another team or if I was running the Cowboys I would not want Romo next year at $14 million. He essentially has not played football in two years, is an injury risk and will be 37 in 2017. While everyone remembers his terrific 2014 season the fact is he has only won more than 8 games once in the last 7 years. So unless you are a team like the Broncos, Texans, etc…who look like they could be a championship level team with a decent QB I wouldn’t see the benefit of Romo on a rebuilding or other question mark kind of team.

5. Tyrod Taylor, Bills
Cap Saved: $5.1 million/Cash Saved: $27.5 million

This contract falls into the category of contracts that should have never been signed in the first place. Taylor was under contract this year but rather than worry about an unhappy player they did this contract instead. While the Bills protected themselves in the event of a crash and burn they did not protect themselves from the situation in which they still don’t know what their quarterback is. The way Taylor’s contract is structured the Bills will effectively be paying him like a $20M+ QB over the next two seasons if they pick up an option on him at the end of the season. He clearly is not worth that so they will need to either release him or convince him to rework his contract. This is the complete opposite of the handling of Kirk Cousins in Washington who took a more pessimistic approach knowing that Cousins had few other options. Taylor is a lot like Kaepernick in that he can be dazzling at times but at others doesn’t look like he belongs at this level. I can’t discount the Bills bringing him back because they simply don’t know anything more about him to abandon ship, but it would be a big mistake to happen at his current price.

6. Josh McCown, Browns
Cap Saved: $4.4 million/Cash Saved: $4.4 million

McCown will be 38 years old next season and is 2-20 as a starter in the last three years. He should not fit into the Browns future plans and there is no reason for them to keep him at spot starter money. If McCown wants to continue to play he could probably find a job backing up an established quarterback like Russell Wilson or Ben Roethlisberger and I’m sure his name would be brought up for some bad QB situations like in Houston but we are talking a quarter or so of this current salary.

7. Robert Griffin III, Browns
Cap Saved: $7.5 million/Cash Saved: $7.5 million

The Browns really wanted this to work out and my guess is they still want it to work out, but they should not be blind to the facts here. I get the signing they made. You have a player with potential upside who has been through some difficult times with injuries and clashes with coaches, but as we get further and further away from the good days you have to come to grips with reality. Griffin can never stay healthy nor does he play the way he did as a rookie. Whatever he was when he was drafted is long gone and it will likely not come back. RGIII can get another chance somewhere for like $2-3 million but if it is going to impede the Browns search for a new QB it should not be in Cleveland.

8. Sam Bradford, Vikings
Cap Saved: $13 million/Cash Saved: $13 million

The only way I could see Bradford being moved is if Teddy Bridgewater is completely healthy. At that point the Vikings would look to get anything in return for Bradford to try to recapture the massive price they paid because they panicked about who could play quarterback in 2016. If Bridgewater isn’t healthy then it’s clear that Bradford should be back. Though Bradford has nothing more than Alex Smith upside, for one more year he gives the Vikings at least a capable game manager and he would not prevent them from drafting a quarterback since 2017 is the final year of his contract.

9. Alex Smith, Chiefs
Cap Saved: $9.7 million/Cash Saved: $13.3 million

Like Bradford, I don’t see Smith as a likely cut. The Chiefs would have to find a better alternative and right now that alternative would be Foles who is not exactly appealing. The Chiefs are built to win now and usually those are the kind of teams that overspend to try to maximize their window of opportunity. I guess it’s slightly possible they could look at a guy like Romo, but this seems more like a situation where KC will look to draft the future QB and have him sit a full season behind Smith before moving to him in 2018.
 

dallen

Senior Tech
Joined
Jan 1, 2000
Messages
8,466
2017 Potential Cuts: Cornerback
Posted on January 12, 2017 by Jason Fitzgerald

1. Tramon Williams, Browns
Cap Saved: $7 million/Cash Saved: $7 million

The Browns signed Williams a few years ago in their period of adding fading veterans in an effort to be respectable which certainly did not work. There is absolutely zero reason for the Browns to keep a 34 year old cornerback who is going to make $7 million in 2017, especially one who isn’t very good.

2. Kyle Arrington, Ravens
Cap Saved: $2.1 million/Cash Saved: $2.1 million

Arrington spent the season on IR due to a concussion after having accepted a pay cut to remain in Baltimore. Arrington is a capable corner but should be part of a veteran purge that the Ravens need to begin this season if they want to turn the franchise around.

3. Darrelle Revis, Jets
Cap Saved: $9.3 million/Cash Saved: $10 million

About the only reason that the Jets would not be moving on outright from Revis is the fact that they owe him $6 million this season whether or not he is on the team. Revis was awful early in the season but closed the year closer to average. He has clearly lost a step but could consider a move to safety. Regardless there is no way Revis’ contract will remain intact.

4. Davon House, Jaguars
Cap Saved: $6 million/Cash Saved: $6 million

In the last two or three years the Jaguars have been overloaded with overpriced and underperforming players and House is one of those guys. The bright side with House is that his contract was one of the ones the Jaguars did with no signing bonus so they are free and clear if they choose to move on. House played in less than 26% of the Jaguars defensive plays in 2016.

5. Sam Shields, Packers
Cap Saved: $9 million/Cash Saved: $9 million

I always considered Shields one of the recent “jump” contracts when the Packers extended him a few years back. A jump contract is one that I think occurs when the team jumps the gun on a contract and goes high rather than risking the market moving much more in the wrong direction. Shields is a fine player, when healthy, but he’s never healthy. He has suffered multiple concussions and has never played 16 games in a season in his entire career. He’ll be 30 next year and it might be time to move on.

6. Alterraun Verner, Buccaneers
Cap Saved: $6.5 million/Cash Saved: $6.5 million

Verner is a capable player, but I’m not sure that the value is there for the Bucs at $6.5 million. Verner played in less than 25% of the team’s defensive snaps last season and a close to $7 million corner is generally expected to play over 75% if healthy. Verner didn’t strike gold in free agency so its doubtful he can be traded but this could be a split that works best for both sides.

7. Johnathan Joseph, Texans
Cap Saved: $6.5 million/Cash Saved: $6.5 million

The Texans still have a place for their 32 year old corner but this could simply be a numbers game leaving Joseph as the odd man out. The Texans already have an investment in Kareem Jackson and will have a decision to make on AJ Bouye. Its hard to see Joseph staying at his current salary if they sign Bouye to a big contract. Seeing if he would play on a much lower incentive laden contract would seem like a good way to keep Joseph as a Texan and seeing how Leon Hall fared in free agency should make him agreeable.

8. Justin Bethel, Cardinals
Cap Saved: $3.8 million/Cash Saved: $4.5 million

The Cardinals contract extension with their stud special teamer seemed to indicate they believed he would develop into a defensive contributor which he did not do. In fact he was a liability given more responsibility. His $4.5 million salary is more than he ever made in his career and more than someone would receive for specials. My guess is they bring his salary down and end any notion that he can be anything more than a defensive fill in.

9. Buster Skrine, Jets
Cap Saved: $3.5 million/Cash Saved: $6 million

Skrine is best suited to be a number 3 corner but the Jets made the leap of faith that he could play full time on the outside when they signed him to a $6.25 million a year contract in 2015. Both sides probably got off lucky when other decisions put him in that role in his first year but he had a difficult year in 2016 with more responsibilities. Penalties, poor coverage, missing tackles he just had a poor year. Still the Jets secondary is poor so there might be more logic in seeing if he is open to a pay cut before moving on.

10. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Giants
Cap Saved: $4.5 million/Cash Saved: $6.5 million

I don’t think the Giants will tinker that much with the defense but there is a chance that they could move on from DRC next year as they have other options on the team now. While his loss was felt against the multi-receiver Packers, right now the NFC East, and really most of the NFC, isn’t built that way which may make him an expensive luxury. Generally the Giants lean towards keeping players longer than other teams regardless of price and DRC is more effective than those others so Id probably put the odds here of a cut being pretty low.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
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Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,734
Dallen bringing it strong. I like it.
 

boozeman

28 Years And Counting...
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121,759
This list has some decent stopgap guys on it
 
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