Jared Goff vs Paxton Lynch

VA Cowboy

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JARED GOFF:

Strengths
Ideal stature in the pocket
Adeptly steps into throws with sound lower body mechanics
Great pocket presence, feels pressure and moves well to avoid it
Keeps his feet active in the pocket while moving through progressions
Quick, fundamentally sound release
Carries the ball high in his stance
Throws with excellent anticipation to release passes as receivers break in routes
Flashes excellent touch to drop the ball in the bucket over defenders
Consistently accurate enough to put ball in catchable location for target
Gets the ball out quickly
Arm strength to stretch the field
Strong zip on the ball 15-20 yards out
Good accuracy on the move, keeps upper body mechanics on point
Solid athlete with the ability to scramble when necessary
Uses eyes well to manipulate defenders in coverage
Started every game possible at California (37)
Tough in the pocket, will take shots attempting to make throws


Weaknesses
Ball location can be an issue, accurate enough to hit target, but not in ideal spot
Forces receivers to make tough adjustments at times, even on rhythm throws
Good, not great velocity, throws to the far hash can dip significantly
Will occasionally force throws off his back foot under pressure
Spread offense created a lot of big windows and first read throws, inflated production
Inconsistent deep ball accuracy, rushes throws a bit and sails the ball
Predetermines throws pre-snap at times
Took almost every snap from shotgun, will need work on drops from under center

Analysis:
Jared Goff is a prospect who has grown on me with every viewing, culminating in one of the better quarterback performances we’ve seen this season in California’s bowl game against Air Force. Like every quarterback in this class, Goff isn’t without his issues, but he also displays plenty of skills that should translate nicely to the NFL.

First, what I enjoy/appreciate about Goff. He’s exceptionally calm in the pocket, showing the patience and footwork to let routes develop and still hit receivers with excellent timing. His eyes are always downfield, confidently perusing what the defense is giving him and making quick, sharp decisions with a clean release. Goff’s upper body mechanics typically stay very sound, and he doesn’t waste time with the ball in the pocket. We’ll get to his accuracy on a more in-depth level in a bit, but suffice to say he throws a catchable ball the vast majority of the time.

His arm strength has been much-maligned, but even the term “arm strength” is a rather vague one, so I’ll break down what I see for you. Goff doesn’t have the cannon that Paxton Lynch or even Connor Cook have, but he does throw with good zip up to 15-20 yards, largely due to his feet being set and the junior generating power from his hips. He’s especially on point with seam throws inside the hashes, able to drive the ball to a location when he doesn’t have to shift his base.

Outside the hashes things get a little more sticky. Goff doesn’t have the arm to wing a pass from the far hash to the sideline without some fluttering and dipping of the ball. That makes any out-route throw to the far sideline pretty dangerous against NFL corners, limiting Goff’s options a bit.

Throwing deep isn’t much of an issue to me, as Goff actually overshot his target more than he underthrew receivers. He can winJared Goff down the field vertically, but his accuracy is inconsistent, as he’ll flash the ability to drop one in the bucket before overshooting his receiver by several yards. His mechanics look good, but Goff may rush the throw a bit and release the ball a tad early, causing the pass to sail to it’s intended target. His arm isn’t the issue though, and the right quarterback coach will have plenty to work with to improve this area of Goff’s game.

My biggest issue with Goff actually goes back to his accuracy. While he almost always puts the ball in the vicinity of his receiver, too often Goff doesn’t place it in the most advantageous location for a routine catch to be made. Even on slants and digs Goff can be somewhat off-target, forcing the receiver into an adjustment that is not only unnecessary, but can also minimize yards after catch. With smaller windows in the NFL, a lot of these throws can be broken up or even intercepted if they become a regular habit. I’ll have a post with video coming this week to show you what I’m talking about.

That said, Goff shows advanced tendencies for a quarterback that could lead to him being the first passer off the board in this year’s draft. When forced to do so he’ll work through progressions calmly, move the pocket when necessary, and show the important ability to make anticipatory throws downfield to his receivers. This is especially important for a quarterback with limited velocity, as Goff’s timing will help him win where his natural tools cannot.

When I first watched Goff, I wasn’t sure many NFL teams would be gung-ho about his lack of “upside” due to limited physical capabilities. The more I watch however, I see a quarterback who can win despite those limitations, especially within the right system and with sound coaching. Mechanically and mentally, Goff is a sharp prospect who has improved each year at Cal, and physically he’s not as inept as many would make you believe. I don’t think he’s a top 20 player like some do, and I value him around the same range as Lynch (late first, early second), but I do think Goff may be the most NFL-ready passer in the draft.

Grade: Second Round
 
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PAXTON LYNCH

Strengths
3-year starter
Top-notch velocity to fit the ball into tight windows and make lower percentage throws with good consistency
Comfortable/accurate on the move, can square up and release quickly
Arm strength to throw without proper mechanics/compromised base and still hit targets on time
When feet are set, can drop it in the bucket vertically
Distance throwing not an issue, rarely under throws receivers
Excellent athlete who is elusive in space and tough to bring down one-on-one
Love his pocket presence, very calm and collected
Great feel for pressure and has the mobility to avoid it
Has unique ability to extend plays from the pocket
Despite many one-read throws, flashes ability to move through progressions steadily in the pocket
Master of the ball fake, RPOs, very decisive
Tough, competitive kid with ideal leadership ability


Weaknesses
Will all-arm throws on occasion and get sloppy with his feet
Ball location/accuracy to the boundary is inconsistent
Throws so hard at times that ball will exit his hand a tad late and dip quickly as a result
Ball doesn’t consistently spiral or spin aerodynamically to the target
Needs to learn to vary ball’s pace at times to make passes more catchable for receivers
Still learning to throw with anticipation, could afford to throw tad late in college due to arm strength
Tendency to load the ball up and fire, causes slight delay in release
Worry about long-term arm strength if current throwing style doesn’t change
Lots of one-read, quick hitting throws
Will need time to adjust to pro-style offense from largely shotgun, spread scheme

Analysis
I won’t go so far as to say that Lynch is a blue-chip prospect, but there are raw skills and abilities that he possesses that perhaps no other quarterback in this class can claim. In a perfect world, you’d like to see a more mechanically sound passer who can spin a prettier ball to his targets, but Lynch has found a way to be successful without top-notch form.

2016 NFL Draft Paxton Lynch shuttleThe biggest reason for Lynch’s prowess as a passer is his rocket arm, which can unhinge passes on a frozen rope to his targets, even without a sound base at times. Lynch’s ability to create gains in the passing game despite a crumbling pocket or compromised mechanics is special, and makes me excited for his ceiling when he does master the details.

The Memphis product is still learning to vary the ball’s pace, but Lynch has already shown remarkable touch and accuracy throwing deep, with the ability to drop passes into the bucket despite tight coverage. His ability to thread the needle in the smallest of windows, whether on the run or from the pocket, allows Lynch to complete lower percentage throws that most quarterbacks cannot.

His NFL system fit offers some versatility, as Lynch shows the presence and developing footwork to thrive from the pocket as a downfield passer, while also being an excellent ball handler and fully capable as a rusher. He’ll need time to master progressions and reads for a pro-style offense, but the comfortability is there to excel in a West Coast attack quickly. I don’t see Lynch as a bad fit for any system honestly, as long as the coaching staff is patient and doesn’t thrust undue responsibility on him too early.

Probably my favorite trait about Lynch is his underrated athleticism, which allows him to escape pressure with quick feet and top-notch movement skills. You’d expect more awkward lower-body mechanics from a 6-7 quarterback, but instead Lynch is a very natural and fluid mover, which allows him to escape pressure quickly while keeping his attention down field.Paxton Lynch Mempis postgame celebration

The best case scenario is for Lynch to sit behind a veteran and refine his throwing mechanics and understanding of a pro-style offense for awhile, but in today’s NFL that might not be possible. He’s currently too reliant on his arm to make plays, but against better competition that won’t always be possible. I’m excited about Lynch’s future, and the fact that his toolset should make him attractive to a variety of different offenses, but I hope whatever team he lands with doesn’t accelerate him to a starting position too quickly and ruin the potential he currently possesses.

Grade: Late 1st Round
 

Cotton

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We kinda have a draft chatter thread for this.

:unsure
 

skidadl

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I'm always nervous about QBs that come out of a spreads system. That system hides a much of flaws making it harder to evaluate the player IMO.

Is there an air raid QB that had been successful in the NFL? I can't think of one.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I'm always nervous about QBs that come out of a spreads system. That system hides a much of flaws making it harder to evaluate the player IMO.

Is there an air raid QB that had been successful in the NFL? I can't think of one.
That's the thing. I think a great QB can come from any system, but different systems can mask a QBs deficiency. You better learn to evaluate them though because college football has gone in the direction of spread offenses.
 

skidadl

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That's the thing. I think a great QB can come from any system, but different systems can mask a QBs deficiency. You better learn to evaluate them though because college football has gone in the direction of spread offenses.
Exactly.
 

Chocolate Lab

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So many people run spreads though now, what are you going to do? Take only Michigan State, Bama, or Iowa QBs?

Doesn't Goff pretty much run a spread? Not to the extend of a Leach, but still.

Anyway, I think Goff looks like the best prospect. He's skinny and needs to gain weight, but that can be done.
 

boozeman

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So many people run spreads though now, what are you going to do? Take only Michigan State, Bama, or Iowa QBs?
Well, all of the sudden Jake Coker is considered a draftable prospect, so you might be right.
 

VA Cowboy

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So many people run spreads though now, what are you going to do? Take only Michigan State, Bama, or Iowa QBs?

Doesn't Goff pretty much run a spread? Not to the extend of a Leach, but still.

Anyway, I think Goff looks like the best prospect. He's skinny and needs to gain weight, but that can be done.
Stanford too. They sell it in recruiting, not just QB's but OL and even FB's.

All of these spread offenses make it easier to win in college but it's the biggest reason there's been a lack of good quality QB's coming out the last 10 years.

I do like Goff over Lynch and probably Wentz over Lynch too. Lynch is much more a product of the system he's in at Memphis. He does have the arm strength and size and qualities that make him a good prospect but I think he's got the biggest chance of begin an NFL bust.
 

skidadl

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So many people run spreads though now, what are you going to do? Take only Michigan State, Bama, or Iowa QBs?

Doesn't Goff pretty much run a spread? Not to the extend of a Leach, but still.

Anyway, I think Goff looks like the best prospect. He's skinny and needs to gain weight, but that can be done.
Sonny Dykes is a Leach disciple
 

VA Cowboy

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The plus side is the Cowboys won't need a rookie QB to start from day one. The downside is we have to rely on Wade Wilson to coach him up.
 

dallen

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Sturm's draft profile on Paxton Lynch. I'm not copying all those gif links over, but here is his conclusion:

Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys:

This is a real prospect to get excited about and to dig heavily into his material. He seems to have all of the tools and a set of intangibles that have coaches raving positively on his behalf. He is big, mobile, confident in all throws, able to manipulate coverage with his eyes, healthy, and competitive. You might beat him, but he won't stop coming at you. For a guy who was unranked and unrecruited (1 offer) out of high school, he has really turned himself into something.
If I am Dallas and he is available for selection, after doing this study I am left with 2 conclusions - although so much can change and so many others must be considered, first. 1) I absolutely would be excited to leave this draft with a prospect as good as Lynch and 2) I would want 12-24 months of not having to play him, if possible. I believe he is going to be a very impressive pro, but I would like to buy as much time as possible to prepare and develop him for the incredibly hot seat he would assume in Dallas after Tony Romo.
 

dallen

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Yeah, it is Bleacher Report so who knows what this idiot's credentials are. That said he is really high on Goff:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2604748-why-jared-goff-is-the-next-franchise-quarterback

Goff Projection

People love comparisons, but Goff is a difficult one to peg because he blends many styles together. His ability to extend plays but also occasional recklessness draws visions of Romo. His throwing motion and ability to drop the ball into tight windows remind me of Derek Carr. He has the frame of Matt Ryan.

Goff’s talent level is significantly higher than anyone else’s in the class, not only right now but also projecting forward. He wins with intangibles in the pocket and has the physical tools to match what his mind processes. There are risks with drafting Goff. Every quarterback has a “bust” factor, but the lack of great quarterback play across the league should have teams willing to invest into him.

I think Goff will fall into the middle of the first round because teams will be worried about his frame and experience with the spread offense. Those same knocks didn’t stop Bridgewater or Mariota from having excellent campaigns early in their careers.

Who transcends from a franchise quarterback is very difficult, if not impossible, to tell. At his worst, Goff could be a Sam Bradford- or Matt Ryan-type quarterback. If Bradford had stayed healthy, and if we’re talking about the pre-2015 version of Ryan, that level of quarterback is certainly worth a top-five investment.

Teams that Goff would fit perfectly on from a need and personnel standpoint would be the Cleveland Browns, the Dallas Cowboys, the New York Jets, the New York Giants, the San Francisco 49ers and the New Orleans Saints. A team that could provide an older quarterback who can mentor Goff and bridge the gap for one year would be ideal. The potential pairing with Sean Payton, wherever he coaches, is particularly intriguing.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2606320-2016-nfl-draft-buyer-beware-on-memphis-quarterback-paxton-lynch

Lynch Projection

Lynch has the size that scouts dream of, and his breakout 2015 campaign was encouraging for his outlook. He shows a natural comfort in the pocket that most quarterbacks can only fantasize about. His best plays strike up images of a young Roethlisberger.

Lynch's upside is significant, and it's why he’s been projected as a top-10 pick. But we cannot overlook the obvious weaknesses to his game, either. He’ll need at least a year to refine his footwork and then adjust to an NFL playbook. The jump from the AAC to the NFL is steep.

Finding the best fit for Lynch is relatively easy, but he has a major buyer-beware sticker on his projection. Taking Lynch in the top half of the first round sets a high expectation that he will be a franchise quarterback at some point in his rookie contract. While he may get there, don’t expect that climb to come until the latter part of a five-year deal.

In comparison to recent prospects, Lynch falls between Ryan Tannehill and Brock Osweiler. Tannehill and Lynch both excel on short and intermediate passes, and they use their mobility. But Tannehill improved quickly despite limited experience in college, and he seems to be, at worst, an average NFL quarterback. Osweiler has struggled when he’s played, but he needs more time to prove whether or not he can develop.

The top-10 hype on Lynch is simply too much. Dallas, with the No. 4 pick, is the only team drafting that high that should even consider him. The Cowboys offer a rare situation in which Lynch can develop. But it might be wiser to draft Goff, who is clearly the better quarterback prospect.

Lynch has franchise quarterback potential, but it’ll take a few years. If he’s afforded the time, he can greatly reward an organization. But the growing pains he will have may resemble those from his collegiate experience, which quickly peaked once things started clicking.
 

Angrymesscan

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The plus side is the Cowboys won't need a rookie QB to start from day one. The downside is we have to rely on Wade Wilson to coach him up.
Well Romo would be coaching him for the first two years, but yeah, that is a big downside...
 

Simpleton

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Lynch has all of the traits that you could want, one of the biggest things with him for me is the mental/leadership/love of the game part of it, basically what you can deduce from interviews/psychological evaluations which we have no access to obviously.

If he wants to be great and is willing to work tirelessly at his craft I think he will end up being great, if he wants to run off to Vegas with his boys a week after getting drafted then I wouldn't touch him with a 3rd rounder.

The intriguing thing is that Wentz is more or less just as physically gifted as Lynch but he has pristine character/leadership qualities, the main concern with him is level of competition and lack of experience. That's why if he kills it at the Senior Bowl I'd permanently move him above Lynch.
 
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Jiggyfly

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Lynch has all of the traits that you could want, one of the biggest things with him for me is the mental/leadership/love of the game part of it, basically what you can deduce from interviews/psychological evaluations which we have no access to obviously.

If he wants to be great and is willing to work tirelessly at his craft I think he will end up being great, if he wants to run off to Vegas with his boys a week after getting drafted then I wouldn't touch him with a 3rd rounder.

The intriguing thing is that Wentz is more or less just as physically gifted as Lynch but he has pristine character/leadership qualities, the main concern with him is level of competition and lack of experience. That's why if he kills it at the Combine I'd permanently move him above Lynch.
How can he kill it at the Combine?

You don't get much time with the teams and it's no lock he even goes to the Combine.
 

Cotton

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Bob's Blog - Live from Lewisville

2016 Draft Profile #1 - Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis

I have never been a scout or a NFL General Manager, but I am willing to watch a ton of football. By watching about 200 snaps of each prospect, we can really get a feel for a player and then know what we are talking about a bit better. It is no exact science, but the NFL hasn't quite figured out drafting either, so we are going to do the best we can. Read more about the draft project here.
Paxton Lynch, QB, Memphis - 6'7, 245 - RS Junior

Like the kid who grabs the biggest present first on Christmas morning, I am guilty of starting the 2016 Draft Project by grabbing one of my favorite players to watch this past college football season, Memphis' big QB, Paxton Lynch.
Lynch is one of the QBs who will be examined closely over the next four months to decide if he is worthy of one of those top spots at the very start of the draft for a team that needs its hope for the next decade. Perhaps, you are aware that one of those teams shopping this aisle closely is your Dallas Cowboys.



We start with his height. He is 6'7. Once upon a time, we decided that QBs must be between 6'2 and 6'5. Just about everyone was either in that group or they were labeled as "not ideal" if they were shorter or taller. But, we are a bit more open-minded these days for the Joe Flacco's (6'6) and the Russell Wilson's (5'10) if they prove to be capable of getting it done. Now, here comes 6'8 Brock Osweiler in Denver to soften the premise of Lynch at 6'7.

But, he doesn't move like an awkward tall QB usually does. In fact, he moves really well. He prefers to move and make plays with his feet to open up opportunities with his arm. He also, in some ways like Cam Newton, looks like he will be your best short yardage back option on 3rdand 1. But the best part of Paxton Lynch is his arm.



What I liked:There is no question that if you grab most Lynch games (I used primarily his games this fall against Ole Miss, Temple, and Houston), you will be very impressed with his ability to make every throw in the book. He makes a few throws against Mississippi that are flat-out ridiculous, even for anyone on Sundays. With those wide college hash-marks, he appeared to be demonstrating he could throw the NFL out-route to the far side on a rope to anyone evaluating his work. He generally stays out of trouble, which is a very difficult trick against ranked opponents, to make incisive throws with small windows and high velocity, while almost never getting into trouble with defenders intercepting balls. He threw just 4 interceptions against 28 touchdowns. He moves his feet and then gets the footwork right before he throws on many occasions, but also seems to imitate Aaron Rodgers on the run where he often throws the ball without resetting them. This is not advisable long-term, but it didn't seem to cause too many accuracy issues on the 200 plays I focused on. He throws the slant on 3rd down like he was born to do it. Ball placement is generally fantastic. He keeps plays alive constantly with mobility and then delivers strikes. He is also strong with keeping his eyes downfield and also setting up screens and using the mesh point to cause issues for defenders.



What I did not like: He does have some accuracy issues with his over-the-top motion where it seems like he gets the release point wrong on occasion. This is usually a shorter pass where he has to get the velocity right and on these he sometimes will bounce a pass or airmail it. This seems correctable with some mechanics instruction. He will, oddly for a man his height, get passes batted down at the line of scrimmage, which will lead to some chaotic outcomes at times. Additionally, when Jared Goff and Carson Wentz were putting on unreal performances in their final college games which both happened to be in Dallas-Fort Worth, Lynch was having his worst day in a few seasons at the Birmingham Bowl in the rain against Auburn. That was the first time many Cowboys' fans saw him, and their impressions were not positive. It is also true that many will recoil at how much shotgun he plays. But, he really makes it work.



Summary and Potential Fit For the Cowboys: This is a real prospect to get excited about and to dig heavily into his material. He seems to have all of the tools and a set of intangibles that have coaches raving positively on his behalf. He is big, mobile, confident in all throws, able to manipulate coverage with his eyes, healthy, and competitive. You might beat him, but he won't stop coming at you. For a guy who was unranked and unrecruited (1 offer) out of high school, he has really turned himself into something.

If I am Dallas and he is available for selection, after doing this study I am left with 2 conclusions - although so much can change and so many others must be considered, first. 1) I absolutely would be excited to leave this draft with a prospect as good as Lynch and 2) I would want 12-24 months of not having to play him, if possible. I believe he is going to be a very impressive pro, but I would like to buy as much time as possible to prepare and develop him for the incredibly hot seat he would assume in Dallas after Tony Romo.




You can view plenty of his tape here at Draftbreakdown.com.

 
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