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Early look at the NFL draft
By Bob McGinn of the Journal Sentinel
Dec. 12, 2015
Here is a look at how the National Football League draft of 2016 is shaping up based on interviews with five executives in personnel for NFL teams in the last week. Underclassmen have until Jan. 15 to declare for the draft, which is scheduled April 28-30 in Chicago.
RECEIVERS
At this point, there doesn't appear to be a tight end worthy of a first-round selection.
"There's none," said one scout. "It's a very, very slim group. College football isn't producing any (Mark) Chmuras or (Jason) Wittens anymore. It's just such a really, really hard position to find now."
Jake Butt of Michigan, one of the better prospects, has said he's going back to school. Two other juniors, Alabama's O.J. Howard (6-6, 255) and Arkansas' Hunter Henry (6-5, 250), are near the top of the list.
"Howard's probably the most NFL-ready of all the tight ends," another scout said. "He's probably the best blocker. Henry has the best hands. He'll run 4.6s, and he's a better route runner than Richard Rodgers."
Juniors Evan Engram (6-3, 230) of Mississippi and Eric Cotton (6-5, 242) of Stanford might figure in the middle rounds as well.
"Engram is a smaller flex guy," a third scout said. "Good hands. Didn't have a ton of production this year. Cotton's a good player. Better athlete than he is blocker."
Mississippi junior Laquon Treadwell (6-2, 210) appears to be the best of what projects as an average corps of wide receivers.
"I don't think there's a receiver this year that is that (top-15 pick)," said one scout. "Not a great group. It's a similar situation to last year. I don't believe there's that dynamic speed guy like a Phillip Dorsett, which got him in the first round last year."
Treadwell bounced back from a horrific leg injury early in the 2014 season to catch 76 passes for 1,082 yards (14.2) and eight touchdowns.
"DeVante Parker last year was a very similar player," said one scout. "Good route runner. Good body control. Good feel for the game. Real strong hands. But I don't think he'll run real well at all."
The only senior with a legitimate shot at the first round is Texas Christian's Josh Doctson (6-2, 193).
"If he runs a good 40 he could be (first round)," one scout said. "He's got great hands, maybe the best hands of the bunch."
Junior Corey Coleman (5-10, 190) of Baylor, who has declared, counts 20 TDs among his 74 receptions.
"He's like Anquan Boldin," said one scout. "The whole thing will be, 'Can he run a good 40?' He's very thick and strong and short. Competitive."
Playing on a bad team at South Carolina, junior Pharoh Cooper (5-11, 208) already declared as well. He's a slot receiver destined for the second round.
One of the draft's fastest wideouts is Notre Dame junior Will Fuller (6-0, 184). Another junior, Ohio State's Michael Thomas (6-3, 210), has great size.
"Fuller will run low 4.4s, high 4.3s," one scout said. "Better player than Devin Smith, who went top of the second (No. 37) last year. Just a better overall receiver.
"Thomas is not a first-round type pick. Doesn't have dynamic speed."
OFFENSIVE LINE
Two junior tackles, Mississippi's Laremy Tunsil (6-5, 305) and Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley (6-6, 315), will vie for the top spot. Both figure to go among the top 15 picks.
"Tunsil is a good athlete with strong hands," said one scout. "Little bit of a finesse guy. They (Ole Miss) are almost like the Oregon teams now. They're really not physical players."
Stanley, according to the scout, isn't regarded as a great worker off the field and doesn't always play hard.
"He needs to get stronger," another scout said. "But he's really good technically as a pass blocker."
Another junior, former walk-on Jack Conklin (6-6, 320) of Michigan State, probably has the best chance to be the third O-lineman in the first round.
"He played left tackle and can probably survive there, but eventually I think you'll want a better athlete," one scout said. "I think he's a right tackle. Kind of a self-made guy who kind of grew into his body."
Junior Germain Ifedi (6-5, 325) is another in a long line of Texas A&M tackles. He has played both tackles and left guard.
"He's just real inconsistent," one scout said. "Effort level is down. I don't think he's playing as well as a year ago. He'll work out well so somebody will take him in the second."
Jason Spriggs (6-6, 310) of Indiana is a pure left tackle with second-round possibilities.
It's an OK year at guard but center isn't good. None of the interior prospects appears destined for the first round.
Kansas State's Cody Whitehair (6-4, 312) played left tackle but projects to guard and should start early. Connor McGovern (6-4, 305) also played left tackle at Missouri but is helped by the fact former teammates Justin Britt (Seahawks) and Mitch Morse (Chiefs) started at different positions as rookies.
"McGovern is that type of player," one scout said. "They seem to come in the league and play early."
Probably the best run-blocking guard is junior Denver Kirkland (6-5, 335) of Arkansas, according to one scout. Louisiana State's Vadal Alexander (6-5, 329) shouldn't need much training before he claims a job.
Mentioned most often as the leading center is Alabama's Ryan Kelly (6-4, 300). "Probably second, third round," said one scout. "Smart kid. Pretty good athlete. But he's not particularly strong."
Junior Ethan Pocic (6-6, 305) of LSU also would have a shot at the second round if he declares.
The other top seniors are Notre Dame's Nick Martin (6-4, 300) and Missouri's Evan Boehm (6-3, 320). Martin's brother, Zack, starts for the Cowboys at right guard.
Of Martin, one scout said: "Tough, try-hard kid. Not near the athlete his brother is. He's got the intangibles like his brother."
Of Boehm, another scout said: "He's like (Corey) Linsley. That's how he plays. Strong. Physical. Fourth round."
Southern California's Max Tuerk (6-5, 275) underwent knee surgery in October. He's a superior technician but might be too light.
QUARTERBACKS
One scout guessed the top four would be taken in this order: California's Jared Goff (6-4, 212), Memphis' Paxton Lynch (6-6, 235), Michigan State's Connor Cook (6-4, 225) and Penn State's Christian Hackenberg (6-4, 235). Cook is the only senior.
It's possible even the erratic Hackenberg might make the first round.
"With the amount of need at quarterback, you're going to go, 'Gotta have one,'" said one scout. "Or you're playing with Ryan Mallett or Johnny Manziel.
"None of them are just ready-made. None of them show consistency. But they all show the physical skills and ability to start."
Of the four, Lynch's passer rating of 117.1 on the NFL scale surpasses Goff's 105.7, Cook's 98.5 and Hackenberg's 84.8.
"There's stuff Lynch doesn't see but then he makes some plays that look like he knows what he's doing," one scout said. "But, boy, is he a great athlete for a big guy. He's going to run in the 4.5s. He's got good feet and can make all the throws."
Goff, according to another scout, has excellent patience and awareness.
"In terms of arm talent, he'll be like (Jay) Cutler," said one scout. "Skinny kid. Gets hit a bunch. Doesn't see everything. Accuracy is off at times. But he can really spin it and has really good feet."
Cook is the most decorated quarterback in Spartans history.
"Physically, he's pretty good," said one scout. "He can make all the throws and he's got some strength to him and he can run. It's all the other stuff with him. How much does he really like ball? How much is he going to work at it? He likes being a celebrity."
Hackenberg's best season was 2013 when Texans coach Bill O'Brien still was at Penn State.
"Physically, he can do it," one scout said. "When Bill O'Brien was coaching him, he was pretty good. He hasn't been coached in two years. He's not real accurate. You watch him on the sidelines, he's a little pouty."
Ohio State's Cardale Jones (6-5, 250), a junior, and senior Carson Wentz (6-5, 230) of North Dakota State figure in the second-to-third round range.
"(Jones) has by far the best arm," said one scout. "Great size. Big hands. Just a natural thrower. He had great stretch last year when he was dominant.
"But he seems a little bit like a knucklehead. He's speaking out. His body language isn't good on the field. But some offensive coordinator will say, 'Oh, I can fix him.'"
RUNNING BACKS
A pair of juniors, Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott (6-0, 225) and Alabama's Derrick Henry (6-2, 245), are sure-fire first-round picks.
"The best running back in the country can't come out," one scout said in reference to LSU sophomore Leonard Fournette. "So the top two are big boys. They put up yards and are productive in all phases of the game. You can't go wrong with them."
Elliott, who has declared, rushed for 1,672 yards (6.4) but irritated some personnel people by complaining about not getting enough carries after a last-second loss to Michigan State.
"He's probably the best player," one scout said. "With the comments he made, you have to check his background. Is he a selfish player? Is it all about him?"
"Declaring for the draft and making those statements right after a loss was very disappointing. He's going to have to answer a lot of questions."
Henry carried a whopping 339 times (Elliott had 262) for 1,986 yards (5.9) and 23 TDs.
"He's the workhorse," said one scout. "He's probably got the best power. He's very similar to (Eddie) Lacy."
Utah's Devontae Booker (5-11, 210) is versatile but is prone to injury and fumbles too much. He's in the second-third round range with juniors C.J. Prosise (6-1, 220) of Notre Dame, Paul Perkins (5-10, 212) of UCLA and Alex Collins (5-11, 220) of Arkansas.
As for the fullbacks, one scout said, "I don't really care. It's a dying position in today's football."
DEFENSIVE LINE
Seven to nine players could be headed for the first round from possibly the best position in the draft.
At defensive end, Ohio State junior Joey Bosa (6-5, 275) should be a top-five choice.
"He's a better version of Justin Smith when he came out of Missouri (in 2001)," said one scout. "Little better athlete. Little more explosive. Strong, tough guy like that. Good motor."
Probably the most attractive 5-technique for the 3-4 teams is DeForest Buckner (6-7, 295) of Oregon. Three scouts said he was as good if not better than ex-Duck DE Arik Armstead, who went 17th to the 49ers last year.
"Probably better effort than (Armstead)," said one scout. "Same type athlete. He's a giant. Not sure he's a great instinct guy."
Clemson junior Shaq Lawson (6-3, 270), who declared, and Oklahoma State junior Emmanuel Ogbah (6-3, 275), who has 13 sacks this season, look like late first-round picks.
"Lawson played behind Vic Beasley in the past," one scout said. "Totally different than Beasley. Beasley was a speed rusher. This guy is bigger. Long arms. Really came on this year.
"Ogbah has been highly productive every year he played. Good effort player. Very explosive."
Two seniors, Michigan State's Shilique Calhoun (6-5, 250) and Florida's Jonathan Bullard (6-3, 283), are 4-3 ends and project to the second round.
"Calhoun is talented but really soft and kind of inconsistent effort," said one scout. "Bullard isn't special."
Penn State's Carl Nassib (6-6, 270) leads the nation in sacks (15½) and scored 39 on the 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test. He's far more productive than Baylor's Shawn Oakman (6-8, 280), who scored 11.
"Nassib is kind of an overachiever," said one scout. "He's going to bring it, and those kinds of guys seem to produce in the NFL.
"Oakman looks great. He's going to be a combine warrior. But you've got to turn on the film at some point, and he doesn't make a lot of plays. He kind of freelances."
At defensive tackle, two scouts said junior Robert Nkemdiche (6-3, 295) of Mississippi would be the first player picked and go somewhere in the top 20.
"He's really athletic and he's got strength," one scout said. "He's really a different kid. He may scare some people. He's strange strange."
Alabama has three players that figure among the top 45: junior A'Shawn Robinson (6-4, 325), Jarran Reed (6-3, 313) and junior Jonathan Allen (6-3, 285).
"Robinson is a giant," said one scout. "Big run stuffer with pass-rush ability. Top-15 pick.
"Reed got in a lot better shape this year than he was as a junior. He was more in the 330 range. Excellent run-down player, and he's showing a little bit more of a push in the pass game. Top 25.
"Allen spells them and is more of a pass rusher. Kind of an in-betweener. End and outside linebacker. He'll go late first, early second."
Louisiana Tech NT Vernon Butler (6-3, 310) is widely admired and should make the second round. Nebraska junior Maliek Collins (6-2, 310) and Penn State junior Austin Johnson (6-3, 325) are more 3-techniques with second-round grades.
Nose tackles Kenny Clark (6-2, 310) of UCLA and Andrew Billings (6-1, 315) of Baylor, a pair of juniors, are rugged against the run.
"Clark's probably the best run stopper," said one scout. "They bill Billings there as the strongest college-football player. He's a limited athlete but he's got incredible strength."
Ohio State's Adolphus Washington (6-4, 290), a possible late first-round pick, hurt his chances after being suspended for the bowl game. Last week, he was arrested for soliciting sex from an undercover police officer.
LINEBACKERS
On the inside, junior Myles Jack (6-1, 245) of UCLA already has declared and junior Jaylon Smith (6-3, 243) of Notre Dame is expected to join him. They look like top-15 choices, and Alabama's Reggie Ragland (6-2, 250) should come later in the first.
Jack played only three games before suffering a knee injury that wasn't overly serious and then shutting it down. In 2013-'14, he also carried 66 times as a running back and scored 11 TDs.
"He's a 'will' in a 4-3," said one scout. "He can play inside in a 3-4 but it'd be kind of a waste to take a guy that high to do that. I'm betting he would go in the first three rounds as a running back. He'll run in the 4.5s."
Another scout referred to Jack and Smith as "slam dunk" prospects.
"Jack can play modern-day football, let's put it that way," he said. "He ain't never leaving the field.
"Smith is a really good pass rusher. He's also got cover skills. I like Jack better, but I think Smith has got the best potential."
Scouts say Ragland isn't as good as C.J. Mosley, the Crimson Tide inside linebacker who went 17th to the Ravens in 2014. His Wonderlic score of 10 concerns some personnel men.
"He's a bigger guy than Mosley," said one scout. "Talented guy, makes a bunch of plays, plays hard. But you've got to worry about him mentally."
LSU junior Kendell Beckwith (6-2, 252) and Missouri's Kentrell Brothers (6-0, 238), the nation's tackling leader with 152, could fit in the second. So might Alabama junior Reuben Foster (6-2, 250).
"Beckwith can play all three downs," one scout said. "Plays the pass and the run. Early second round.
"Brothers is short but he's thick. Doesn't run extremely well but really a productive, physical player. Smart kind of kid (Wonderlic of 28).
"Foster may come out. More of a second-rounder. He's another big, physical, fast inside backer. Probably runs in the 4.6 range."
On the outside, junior Leonard Floyd (6-3, 240) of Georgia has declared and figures as a top-20 choice.
"He's an ideal 3-4 pass rusher," said one scout. "This year, he played some inside and then outside on obvious pass situations. He never should have played inside.
"He's a pass rusher. Runs like the wind. The only thing that might hurt him is he's had a couple shoulder surgeries...and he's a little lean."
Floyd's teammate, Jordan Jenkins (6-2, 255), is a strong-side player and might reach the second round. Ohio State's Joshua Perry (6-4, 254) fits the same category.
Eastern Kentucky's Noah Spence (6-3, 261), a junior who was dismissed by Ohio State, has been a productive pass rusher.
"Pass rushers are at a premium, and he is that," said one scout. "Multiple trust things got him kicked out. You'll have to do a lot of background work on him."
USC's undersized Su'a Cravens (6-1, 225) might project to safety.
Said one scout: "He can really run and he's really athletic and he'll hit you and make big plays occasionally … but he's not real strong and there's games where he just disappears."
Wisconsin's Joe Schobert (6-1, 236) is viewed as a third- or fourth-round selection.
"He could be an inside guy in a 3-4," one scout said. "He could play outside as well because he does rush the passer a little bit. He's just a good football player. Shea McClellin comes to mind. Very similar in a lot of ways."
SECONDARY
Two juniors, Florida State's Jalen Ramsey (6-1, 205) and Florida's Vernon Hargreaves (5-9, 200), should be top-12 picks. Some teams might draft Ramsey as a safety, and he would easily be the best prospect there.
"Really good athlete," one scout said of Ramsey. "I don't know if the movement's there for corner but he can really run and he's smooth. I think he's probably better covering tight ends and backs than walking out."
Hargreaves was compared by one scout to Joe Haden, the ex-Gator cornerback who was the seventh pick in 2010.
"Very smart, very competitive," said one scout. "Gets his hands on a lot of balls. Very physical in the run game."
Junior Kendall Fuller (6-0, 197) of Virginia Tech has had two brothers play in the NFL. The younger of the two, Kyle, was drafted 14th by the Bears in 2014.
"He's faster than Kyle," said one scout. "He's not as good a football player or as strong."
Others with first-round chances are junior Tre'Davious White (5-11, 191) of LSU, redshirt sophomore Mackensie Alexander (5-10, 195) of Clemson and junior Eli Apple (6-0, 200) of Ohio State.
Mississippi State's Will Redmond (5-11, 185) and Notre Dame junior KeiVarae Russell (5-11, 196) suffered major knee and leg injuries, respectively, that figure to push them down.
At safety, it's a thin list. Look for teams to project some cornerbacks with size to inside.
"I don't think there's any special safety," one scout said. "There's some good, solid players but no firsts."
Some safeties mentioned most prominently by personnel people are junior Vonn Bell (5-11, 205) of Ohio State, Duke's Jeremy Cash (6-1, 208), Boise State's Darian Thompson (6-2, 210) and Clemson junior Jayron Kearse (6-5, 220), who might be too long.
"Name me one 6-5 safety that ever played in the NFL," said one scout. "It hasn't happened. He's got talent and he's athletic, but he's just really, really, really tall."
By Bob McGinn of the Journal Sentinel
Dec. 12, 2015
Here is a look at how the National Football League draft of 2016 is shaping up based on interviews with five executives in personnel for NFL teams in the last week. Underclassmen have until Jan. 15 to declare for the draft, which is scheduled April 28-30 in Chicago.
RECEIVERS
At this point, there doesn't appear to be a tight end worthy of a first-round selection.
"There's none," said one scout. "It's a very, very slim group. College football isn't producing any (Mark) Chmuras or (Jason) Wittens anymore. It's just such a really, really hard position to find now."
Jake Butt of Michigan, one of the better prospects, has said he's going back to school. Two other juniors, Alabama's O.J. Howard (6-6, 255) and Arkansas' Hunter Henry (6-5, 250), are near the top of the list.
"Howard's probably the most NFL-ready of all the tight ends," another scout said. "He's probably the best blocker. Henry has the best hands. He'll run 4.6s, and he's a better route runner than Richard Rodgers."
Juniors Evan Engram (6-3, 230) of Mississippi and Eric Cotton (6-5, 242) of Stanford might figure in the middle rounds as well.
"Engram is a smaller flex guy," a third scout said. "Good hands. Didn't have a ton of production this year. Cotton's a good player. Better athlete than he is blocker."
Mississippi junior Laquon Treadwell (6-2, 210) appears to be the best of what projects as an average corps of wide receivers.
"I don't think there's a receiver this year that is that (top-15 pick)," said one scout. "Not a great group. It's a similar situation to last year. I don't believe there's that dynamic speed guy like a Phillip Dorsett, which got him in the first round last year."
Treadwell bounced back from a horrific leg injury early in the 2014 season to catch 76 passes for 1,082 yards (14.2) and eight touchdowns.
"DeVante Parker last year was a very similar player," said one scout. "Good route runner. Good body control. Good feel for the game. Real strong hands. But I don't think he'll run real well at all."
The only senior with a legitimate shot at the first round is Texas Christian's Josh Doctson (6-2, 193).
"If he runs a good 40 he could be (first round)," one scout said. "He's got great hands, maybe the best hands of the bunch."
Junior Corey Coleman (5-10, 190) of Baylor, who has declared, counts 20 TDs among his 74 receptions.
"He's like Anquan Boldin," said one scout. "The whole thing will be, 'Can he run a good 40?' He's very thick and strong and short. Competitive."
Playing on a bad team at South Carolina, junior Pharoh Cooper (5-11, 208) already declared as well. He's a slot receiver destined for the second round.
One of the draft's fastest wideouts is Notre Dame junior Will Fuller (6-0, 184). Another junior, Ohio State's Michael Thomas (6-3, 210), has great size.
"Fuller will run low 4.4s, high 4.3s," one scout said. "Better player than Devin Smith, who went top of the second (No. 37) last year. Just a better overall receiver.
"Thomas is not a first-round type pick. Doesn't have dynamic speed."
OFFENSIVE LINE
Two junior tackles, Mississippi's Laremy Tunsil (6-5, 305) and Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley (6-6, 315), will vie for the top spot. Both figure to go among the top 15 picks.
"Tunsil is a good athlete with strong hands," said one scout. "Little bit of a finesse guy. They (Ole Miss) are almost like the Oregon teams now. They're really not physical players."
Stanley, according to the scout, isn't regarded as a great worker off the field and doesn't always play hard.
"He needs to get stronger," another scout said. "But he's really good technically as a pass blocker."
Another junior, former walk-on Jack Conklin (6-6, 320) of Michigan State, probably has the best chance to be the third O-lineman in the first round.
"He played left tackle and can probably survive there, but eventually I think you'll want a better athlete," one scout said. "I think he's a right tackle. Kind of a self-made guy who kind of grew into his body."
Junior Germain Ifedi (6-5, 325) is another in a long line of Texas A&M tackles. He has played both tackles and left guard.
"He's just real inconsistent," one scout said. "Effort level is down. I don't think he's playing as well as a year ago. He'll work out well so somebody will take him in the second."
Jason Spriggs (6-6, 310) of Indiana is a pure left tackle with second-round possibilities.
It's an OK year at guard but center isn't good. None of the interior prospects appears destined for the first round.
Kansas State's Cody Whitehair (6-4, 312) played left tackle but projects to guard and should start early. Connor McGovern (6-4, 305) also played left tackle at Missouri but is helped by the fact former teammates Justin Britt (Seahawks) and Mitch Morse (Chiefs) started at different positions as rookies.
"McGovern is that type of player," one scout said. "They seem to come in the league and play early."
Probably the best run-blocking guard is junior Denver Kirkland (6-5, 335) of Arkansas, according to one scout. Louisiana State's Vadal Alexander (6-5, 329) shouldn't need much training before he claims a job.
Mentioned most often as the leading center is Alabama's Ryan Kelly (6-4, 300). "Probably second, third round," said one scout. "Smart kid. Pretty good athlete. But he's not particularly strong."
Junior Ethan Pocic (6-6, 305) of LSU also would have a shot at the second round if he declares.
The other top seniors are Notre Dame's Nick Martin (6-4, 300) and Missouri's Evan Boehm (6-3, 320). Martin's brother, Zack, starts for the Cowboys at right guard.
Of Martin, one scout said: "Tough, try-hard kid. Not near the athlete his brother is. He's got the intangibles like his brother."
Of Boehm, another scout said: "He's like (Corey) Linsley. That's how he plays. Strong. Physical. Fourth round."
Southern California's Max Tuerk (6-5, 275) underwent knee surgery in October. He's a superior technician but might be too light.
QUARTERBACKS
One scout guessed the top four would be taken in this order: California's Jared Goff (6-4, 212), Memphis' Paxton Lynch (6-6, 235), Michigan State's Connor Cook (6-4, 225) and Penn State's Christian Hackenberg (6-4, 235). Cook is the only senior.
It's possible even the erratic Hackenberg might make the first round.
"With the amount of need at quarterback, you're going to go, 'Gotta have one,'" said one scout. "Or you're playing with Ryan Mallett or Johnny Manziel.
"None of them are just ready-made. None of them show consistency. But they all show the physical skills and ability to start."
Of the four, Lynch's passer rating of 117.1 on the NFL scale surpasses Goff's 105.7, Cook's 98.5 and Hackenberg's 84.8.
"There's stuff Lynch doesn't see but then he makes some plays that look like he knows what he's doing," one scout said. "But, boy, is he a great athlete for a big guy. He's going to run in the 4.5s. He's got good feet and can make all the throws."
Goff, according to another scout, has excellent patience and awareness.
"In terms of arm talent, he'll be like (Jay) Cutler," said one scout. "Skinny kid. Gets hit a bunch. Doesn't see everything. Accuracy is off at times. But he can really spin it and has really good feet."
Cook is the most decorated quarterback in Spartans history.
"Physically, he's pretty good," said one scout. "He can make all the throws and he's got some strength to him and he can run. It's all the other stuff with him. How much does he really like ball? How much is he going to work at it? He likes being a celebrity."
Hackenberg's best season was 2013 when Texans coach Bill O'Brien still was at Penn State.
"Physically, he can do it," one scout said. "When Bill O'Brien was coaching him, he was pretty good. He hasn't been coached in two years. He's not real accurate. You watch him on the sidelines, he's a little pouty."
Ohio State's Cardale Jones (6-5, 250), a junior, and senior Carson Wentz (6-5, 230) of North Dakota State figure in the second-to-third round range.
"(Jones) has by far the best arm," said one scout. "Great size. Big hands. Just a natural thrower. He had great stretch last year when he was dominant.
"But he seems a little bit like a knucklehead. He's speaking out. His body language isn't good on the field. But some offensive coordinator will say, 'Oh, I can fix him.'"
RUNNING BACKS
A pair of juniors, Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott (6-0, 225) and Alabama's Derrick Henry (6-2, 245), are sure-fire first-round picks.
"The best running back in the country can't come out," one scout said in reference to LSU sophomore Leonard Fournette. "So the top two are big boys. They put up yards and are productive in all phases of the game. You can't go wrong with them."
Elliott, who has declared, rushed for 1,672 yards (6.4) but irritated some personnel people by complaining about not getting enough carries after a last-second loss to Michigan State.
"He's probably the best player," one scout said. "With the comments he made, you have to check his background. Is he a selfish player? Is it all about him?"
"Declaring for the draft and making those statements right after a loss was very disappointing. He's going to have to answer a lot of questions."
Henry carried a whopping 339 times (Elliott had 262) for 1,986 yards (5.9) and 23 TDs.
"He's the workhorse," said one scout. "He's probably got the best power. He's very similar to (Eddie) Lacy."
Utah's Devontae Booker (5-11, 210) is versatile but is prone to injury and fumbles too much. He's in the second-third round range with juniors C.J. Prosise (6-1, 220) of Notre Dame, Paul Perkins (5-10, 212) of UCLA and Alex Collins (5-11, 220) of Arkansas.
As for the fullbacks, one scout said, "I don't really care. It's a dying position in today's football."
DEFENSIVE LINE
Seven to nine players could be headed for the first round from possibly the best position in the draft.
At defensive end, Ohio State junior Joey Bosa (6-5, 275) should be a top-five choice.
"He's a better version of Justin Smith when he came out of Missouri (in 2001)," said one scout. "Little better athlete. Little more explosive. Strong, tough guy like that. Good motor."
Probably the most attractive 5-technique for the 3-4 teams is DeForest Buckner (6-7, 295) of Oregon. Three scouts said he was as good if not better than ex-Duck DE Arik Armstead, who went 17th to the 49ers last year.
"Probably better effort than (Armstead)," said one scout. "Same type athlete. He's a giant. Not sure he's a great instinct guy."
Clemson junior Shaq Lawson (6-3, 270), who declared, and Oklahoma State junior Emmanuel Ogbah (6-3, 275), who has 13 sacks this season, look like late first-round picks.
"Lawson played behind Vic Beasley in the past," one scout said. "Totally different than Beasley. Beasley was a speed rusher. This guy is bigger. Long arms. Really came on this year.
"Ogbah has been highly productive every year he played. Good effort player. Very explosive."
Two seniors, Michigan State's Shilique Calhoun (6-5, 250) and Florida's Jonathan Bullard (6-3, 283), are 4-3 ends and project to the second round.
"Calhoun is talented but really soft and kind of inconsistent effort," said one scout. "Bullard isn't special."
Penn State's Carl Nassib (6-6, 270) leads the nation in sacks (15½) and scored 39 on the 50-question Wonderlic intelligence test. He's far more productive than Baylor's Shawn Oakman (6-8, 280), who scored 11.
"Nassib is kind of an overachiever," said one scout. "He's going to bring it, and those kinds of guys seem to produce in the NFL.
"Oakman looks great. He's going to be a combine warrior. But you've got to turn on the film at some point, and he doesn't make a lot of plays. He kind of freelances."
At defensive tackle, two scouts said junior Robert Nkemdiche (6-3, 295) of Mississippi would be the first player picked and go somewhere in the top 20.
"He's really athletic and he's got strength," one scout said. "He's really a different kid. He may scare some people. He's strange strange."
Alabama has three players that figure among the top 45: junior A'Shawn Robinson (6-4, 325), Jarran Reed (6-3, 313) and junior Jonathan Allen (6-3, 285).
"Robinson is a giant," said one scout. "Big run stuffer with pass-rush ability. Top-15 pick.
"Reed got in a lot better shape this year than he was as a junior. He was more in the 330 range. Excellent run-down player, and he's showing a little bit more of a push in the pass game. Top 25.
"Allen spells them and is more of a pass rusher. Kind of an in-betweener. End and outside linebacker. He'll go late first, early second."
Louisiana Tech NT Vernon Butler (6-3, 310) is widely admired and should make the second round. Nebraska junior Maliek Collins (6-2, 310) and Penn State junior Austin Johnson (6-3, 325) are more 3-techniques with second-round grades.
Nose tackles Kenny Clark (6-2, 310) of UCLA and Andrew Billings (6-1, 315) of Baylor, a pair of juniors, are rugged against the run.
"Clark's probably the best run stopper," said one scout. "They bill Billings there as the strongest college-football player. He's a limited athlete but he's got incredible strength."
Ohio State's Adolphus Washington (6-4, 290), a possible late first-round pick, hurt his chances after being suspended for the bowl game. Last week, he was arrested for soliciting sex from an undercover police officer.
LINEBACKERS
On the inside, junior Myles Jack (6-1, 245) of UCLA already has declared and junior Jaylon Smith (6-3, 243) of Notre Dame is expected to join him. They look like top-15 choices, and Alabama's Reggie Ragland (6-2, 250) should come later in the first.
Jack played only three games before suffering a knee injury that wasn't overly serious and then shutting it down. In 2013-'14, he also carried 66 times as a running back and scored 11 TDs.
"He's a 'will' in a 4-3," said one scout. "He can play inside in a 3-4 but it'd be kind of a waste to take a guy that high to do that. I'm betting he would go in the first three rounds as a running back. He'll run in the 4.5s."
Another scout referred to Jack and Smith as "slam dunk" prospects.
"Jack can play modern-day football, let's put it that way," he said. "He ain't never leaving the field.
"Smith is a really good pass rusher. He's also got cover skills. I like Jack better, but I think Smith has got the best potential."
Scouts say Ragland isn't as good as C.J. Mosley, the Crimson Tide inside linebacker who went 17th to the Ravens in 2014. His Wonderlic score of 10 concerns some personnel men.
"He's a bigger guy than Mosley," said one scout. "Talented guy, makes a bunch of plays, plays hard. But you've got to worry about him mentally."
LSU junior Kendell Beckwith (6-2, 252) and Missouri's Kentrell Brothers (6-0, 238), the nation's tackling leader with 152, could fit in the second. So might Alabama junior Reuben Foster (6-2, 250).
"Beckwith can play all three downs," one scout said. "Plays the pass and the run. Early second round.
"Brothers is short but he's thick. Doesn't run extremely well but really a productive, physical player. Smart kind of kid (Wonderlic of 28).
"Foster may come out. More of a second-rounder. He's another big, physical, fast inside backer. Probably runs in the 4.6 range."
On the outside, junior Leonard Floyd (6-3, 240) of Georgia has declared and figures as a top-20 choice.
"He's an ideal 3-4 pass rusher," said one scout. "This year, he played some inside and then outside on obvious pass situations. He never should have played inside.
"He's a pass rusher. Runs like the wind. The only thing that might hurt him is he's had a couple shoulder surgeries...and he's a little lean."
Floyd's teammate, Jordan Jenkins (6-2, 255), is a strong-side player and might reach the second round. Ohio State's Joshua Perry (6-4, 254) fits the same category.
Eastern Kentucky's Noah Spence (6-3, 261), a junior who was dismissed by Ohio State, has been a productive pass rusher.
"Pass rushers are at a premium, and he is that," said one scout. "Multiple trust things got him kicked out. You'll have to do a lot of background work on him."
USC's undersized Su'a Cravens (6-1, 225) might project to safety.
Said one scout: "He can really run and he's really athletic and he'll hit you and make big plays occasionally … but he's not real strong and there's games where he just disappears."
Wisconsin's Joe Schobert (6-1, 236) is viewed as a third- or fourth-round selection.
"He could be an inside guy in a 3-4," one scout said. "He could play outside as well because he does rush the passer a little bit. He's just a good football player. Shea McClellin comes to mind. Very similar in a lot of ways."
SECONDARY
Two juniors, Florida State's Jalen Ramsey (6-1, 205) and Florida's Vernon Hargreaves (5-9, 200), should be top-12 picks. Some teams might draft Ramsey as a safety, and he would easily be the best prospect there.
"Really good athlete," one scout said of Ramsey. "I don't know if the movement's there for corner but he can really run and he's smooth. I think he's probably better covering tight ends and backs than walking out."
Hargreaves was compared by one scout to Joe Haden, the ex-Gator cornerback who was the seventh pick in 2010.
"Very smart, very competitive," said one scout. "Gets his hands on a lot of balls. Very physical in the run game."
Junior Kendall Fuller (6-0, 197) of Virginia Tech has had two brothers play in the NFL. The younger of the two, Kyle, was drafted 14th by the Bears in 2014.
"He's faster than Kyle," said one scout. "He's not as good a football player or as strong."
Others with first-round chances are junior Tre'Davious White (5-11, 191) of LSU, redshirt sophomore Mackensie Alexander (5-10, 195) of Clemson and junior Eli Apple (6-0, 200) of Ohio State.
Mississippi State's Will Redmond (5-11, 185) and Notre Dame junior KeiVarae Russell (5-11, 196) suffered major knee and leg injuries, respectively, that figure to push them down.
At safety, it's a thin list. Look for teams to project some cornerbacks with size to inside.
"I don't think there's any special safety," one scout said. "There's some good, solid players but no firsts."
Some safeties mentioned most prominently by personnel people are junior Vonn Bell (5-11, 205) of Ohio State, Duke's Jeremy Cash (6-1, 208), Boise State's Darian Thompson (6-2, 210) and Clemson junior Jayron Kearse (6-5, 220), who might be too long.
"Name me one 6-5 safety that ever played in the NFL," said one scout. "It hasn't happened. He's got talent and he's athletic, but he's just really, really, really tall."
