Sturm's Decoding Linehan - Rough Day Provides Blueprint For Opponents

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm, Special contributor

In the Cowboys last game, we spent quite a bit of time discussing how they had one of the worst days possible for the defense against Washington, and still won the game.

They allowed the Redskins to run up 500 yards of offense, theynever sacked Kirk Cousins, nor did they ever turn the ball over a single time. And still won.

We discussed how that was a fortuitous conclusion to a really tough day and should like to avoid any similar experiences in the near future.
Well, this occasion, 7 days later, was a nearly opposite experience.

The offense - a group that has had almost no days all season where anything appeared difficult to them - sputtered all night long and looked vulnerable in many ways against a fired up Vikings defense that forced Dallas into discomfort routinely.

Behold, the results:

- Dallas scored a season-low 17 points of offense (including a special teams aided TD).
- Dallas totaled a season-low 264 total yards.- Dallas turned the ball over twice (tying a season high for turnovers).
- Dallas converted a season-low one 3rd Down. 11%
- Dallas won.

It is really quite a year when your stinkers go for victories, but given the fragile nature of wonderful seasons, we should begin to examine some of the issues that appear to be present as this team heads down the stretch. It isn't that we should freak out, or anything. But, this is a football organization that has had a 13-3 season in 2007 and a 12-4 season in 2014 in which they then went to the playoffs and were dismissed prior to the NFC Championship Game on both occasions.

That can happen. You can have amazing seasons that can be dismantled in just under three hours.

With that in mind, what Minnesota has done to provide a blueprint to certain potential playoff opponents must, at least, give one pause.
The Cowboys have been a dominant rushing team all season long. Things have gone very well for them on the ground, which we believe is the foundation of what they like to accomplish. However, it should be noted that there is a disturbing trend has formed regarding their success rates since the injury to Geoff Swaim, the blocking tight end from Texas.

Swaim tore his pectoral muscle against Pittsburgh. Before that day, the Cowboys were getting a majority of their running game from multi-tight end sets. Since then, Dallas has been trying to figure out a way around this obstacle because it makes their offense so much more powerful.
Why? Why do you think that running with multiple tight ends is a big deal?

Because, when you are in a multiple tight end set - 12, 13, 21 (if a TE is lined up as a fullback) or 22 personnel, you will see the defense attempt to defend you in their base personnel. They will not have a 5th defensive back on the field because they realize how difficult it is to stop the run being outsized so badly. Now, that Swaim is out, there is a lot of the offense that is now trying to be replicated by Gavin Escobar, who unfortunately, blocks like a WR sometimes. If you make him block a linebacker or a DE, we see his issues bubble to the surface.

So, the Cowboys are left with the unenviable choice of either trying to get Escobar to get to Swaim's level of blocking, or rip out a big part of the playbook that got the Cowboys to where they were when leaving Pittsburgh.

Below will give you an idea of what we are talking about. This is just raw yardage numbers, but I didn't want to complicate things too much. You can see, though, when the Cowboys declared power runs by running a 2 TE on to the field, the defenses did not have much success between Week 3 (when the offense started figuring out how to get Zeke going) and Week 9 when Swaim got hurt with the brief exception of the Eagles impressive showing.

Since then, the power runs have really slowed down to almost nothing.



This doesn't mean they can't run at all. It just means a lot of it will now come from 11 personnel, where teams are not out-sized on defense and a team like Minnesota (or Seattle) is not going to be manhandled in the same way.

It isn't a devastating issue, but it is certainly one to think about moving forward.

WEEKLY DATA - MINNESOTA



The numbers above are just not very good at all. Only 13 first downs. Look at the average yards to go on 3rd down! Over 10! Too many penalties and no success on the early downs. Basically, this is the type of day we expected to encounter on a regular basis with a rookie QB.

This is what an overwhelmed offense against an elite defense looks like. Lucky the Cowboys have not run into this much this season.

DAK PRESCOTT THROW CHART



Wow. That is a very careful throw chart. Dak Prescott refuses to risk bad things in a game like that, which I am sure came at the hands of the coaches offering a game-plan. They knew that odds were very good that if the Cowboys could hold the ball, they would eventually win in a very hostile situation.

Then, the ball started coming lose. Lucky Whitehead fumbled. Ezekiel Elliott fumbled (and the play was overturned). Penalties and sacks and then a QB strip fumble. It was all very chaotic, which made the offense get even more careful.

I think you need to make sure to include Witten in the middle to occupy the safeties more. They had one connection brought back for a Doug Free penalty.

PERSONNEL GROUPINGS



Above, note the personnel production from each grouping. This is something to keep an eye on. We don't fully know how much is the loss of a player and how much is the situation and the opponent. But, from here, it looks like the Cowboys success is coming out of shotgun, where many of the runs are from 11 personnel. Spread them out and use the space. Trouble is, I don't know if that is the recipe to win in the playoffs, where smash mouth football was the Cowboys best go-to move.

Let's look at the video:



Here is an early run from 12 personnel that did not count. But, both TEs did a nice job and Zeke gets out side and hits the turbo. The issue here was a call on Doug Free for holding the LB 54-Kendricks. I think this is a horrible call and that the LB sold the call by acting like he got held. A truly ridiculous call, in my opinion. I know Doug Free has struggled, but this is not a hold and this alters the game significantly.



This is 3rd and 13. Prescott was phenomenal with his feet in this game. Imagine what a dual threat you have when a QB can do this against that defense on 3rd and long. Very impressive work here.



Deep ball to Dez. The one really big offensive play in the game. We talk all season how Dez has the same move over and over and how do they let him get that DIG every time? It is a 15-yard route that is a sharp turn to the inside of the field. The Deep In. The Dez Bryant signature route. Well, here is Harrison Smith getting ready to jump that and Dez has a double move. Smith is awesome, but the Cowboys set him up with a season of film and then Dak delivers a nice ball that required a great catch. A slight less on the ball might be a touchdown. But, this is pretty great as is.



Here, look at the protection on the same play. This is also out of empty, which I would like to see the Cowboys do more if they are unable to power-run. Spread them out, but they have to figure out how to use Zeke more if they do this as a receiver. That is the downside.



Really rough night for Doug Free. It appears that this is becoming more and more of an issue. They just don't have very good pass protection from right tackle anymore. I really appreciate his career, but we have seen a decline in 2016. Robison gets him here and the ball comes loose.



Now, the very athletic Danielle Hunter gets Free from the same spot. Dak is going to need to start feeling that situation and escape in that direction if this continues. I am not sure how much a chip from Elliott would help this. Free just can't handle this type of edge guy, which complicates things, too.

Seattle has plenty over right tackle to replicate this.



Here, the Cowboys break one late as Zeke bounces it to the outside on that same rollout action we have seen so much out of 12 personnel. I think the game 54-Kendricks had was very impressive, and here he saves a touchdown. This became a field goal, so his effort to get off the block and beat Elliott to that angle is remarkable.



And then this play where it looked like Dak ended the game with a scramble. It is a screen play right to Zeke, but the Vikings sniff it out and take Elliott away. Dak doesn't panic and keeps headed for the marker where he gets comfortably, but review backed the ball up a few yards and the Cowboys blow 3rd and 1 and have to punt (which turns into the Vikings touchdown). I am sure next time Dak will dive head first and end the game right there, but we shouldn't lose sight of all of the good he did here and all night with his decision-making. He got it right quite a bit.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

There was a lot unsteady about that performance. You would have liked to see a lot more, but do not take the easy way out and just talk about the QB. There were too many penalties. Too many blown assignments. And just an overall poor performance from the big guys up front. Now, that is a product of playing a great defense at their place - something the Cowboys will likely earn the right to avoid with home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

But, it did reveal some vulnerabilities and some issues at right tackle and 2nd tight end. The Cowboys will have to closely monitor those situations closely and perhaps attempt to understand what everyone they have available is capable of these days.

A quality win for sure. But, easily the 11th or 12th best offensive performance of the season. Look for a bounce back on Sunday in a very tough place against a defense that is designed to slow Dallas down.
 

P_T

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Every time I hear this "blueprint" nonsense I just roll my eyes... every team for the past five weeks or so has attempted the same thing, the reason the Vikings had success:

1) it was our third game in 12 days
2) that stadium was rockin and they were uber motivated (playing for their coach)
3) and most importantly... their TALENT

4) I don't like complaining about the referees, but there were some highly questionable calls in that game that negated some plays which would have broken the game open for us.


It's not like we're running some gimmick offense... in reality, it is quite simple: run the ball, throw to the open receiver.


The only issue I really see for this offense going forward is at the TE position... not having a second TE who is a legitimate run blocker and pass catcher is making things a bit more difficult. We're really missing Swaim and Hanna. Too bad Rico is not further along.
 

townsend

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Every time I hear this "blueprint" nonsense I just roll my eyes... every team for the past five weeks or so has attempted the same thing, the reason the Vikings had success:

1) it was our third game in 12 days
2) that stadium was rockin and they were uber motivated (playing for their coach)
3) and most importantly... their TALENT

4) I don't like complaining about the referees, but there were some highly questionable calls in that game that negated some plays which would have broken the game open for us.


It's not like we're running some gimmick offense... in reality, it is quite simple: run the ball, throw to the open receiver.


The only issue I really see for this offense going forward is at the TE position... not having a second TE who is a legitimate run blocker and pass catcher is making things a bit more difficult. We're really missing Swaim and Hanna. Too bad Rico is not further along.
Seriously, the "blueprint" is have a defense approximately as talented as the Cowboys offense, and have some important penalties go your way. Not extremely replicable.
 

Simpleton

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The Ravens personnel is nearly perfectly built to stop us with two behemoth DT's, one of the best ILB's in the league, versatile safeties and an edge rusher like Suggs. A second edge rusher or a shutdown CB would be great to add to that, but how many defenses are out there with all of that?

And they couldn't do shit to stop this offense once it got rolling.

As towns over here previously said, you need elite defensive talent on top of an off-game from our offense as far as penalties, turnovers and such to really stop us.
 

UncleMilti

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No one we would face in the playoffs has a defense as good as the Vikings, so its a moot point on the analysis.
 

fortsbest

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It was preseason, but this offense made Seattle's D look pedestrian in the first half. And Zeke has Sherman scared! :skurred
 

Simpleton

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Another key point is that we were on the road and the Vikings had the benefit of one of the best defenses in the league in the Ravens softening us up for them just about 11 days prior.

Neither of those circumstances will play out again this season.
 

Texas Ace

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Every time I hear this "blueprint" nonsense I just roll my eyes... every team for the past five weeks or so has attempted the same thing, the reason the Vikings had success:

1) it was our third game in 12 days
2) that stadium was rockin and they were uber motivated (playing for their coach)
3) and most importantly... their TALENT

4) I don't like complaining about the referees, but there were some highly questionable calls in that game that negated some plays which would have broken the game open for us.


It's not like we're running some gimmick offense... in reality, it is quite simple: run the ball, throw to the open receiver.


The only issue I really see for this offense going forward is at the TE position... not having a second TE who is a legitimate run blocker and pass catcher is making things a bit more difficult. We're really missing Swaim and Hanna. Too bad Rico is not further along.
I agree 100%.

Like I said last week, if we go to New York against that formidable defense and have the same struggles all game long that we did vs Minnesota, then we need to be concerned that something is going on.

But until then? I'm not going to sound the alarm over a one-off, especially when we played against a very similar defense just a few weeks ago and looked very impressive doing so.
 

Joe Fan

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Here's what matters - we won despite all of the struggles. That's all you need to take away from this game. Clean up the iffy penalties and it's another blowout in our favor.
 

Joe Fan

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Every time I hear this "blueprint" nonsense I just roll my eyes... every team for the past five weeks or so has attempted the same thing, the reason the Vikings had success:

1) it was our third game in 12 days
2) that stadium was rockin and they were uber motivated (playing for their coach)
3) and most importantly... their TALENT

4) I don't like complaining about the referees, but there were some highly questionable calls in that game that negated some plays which would have broken the game open for us.


It's not like we're running some gimmick offense... in reality, it is quite simple: run the ball, throw to the open receiver.


The only issue I really see for this offense going forward is at the TE position... not having a second TE who is a legitimate run blocker and pass catcher is making things a bit more difficult. We're really missing Swaim and Hanna. Too bad Rico is not further along.
This is exactly why I wish we hadn't gotten rid of Traylor. He was a beast in blocking.
 

boozeman

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Isn't he on a practice squad available to be signed if we wanted?
Yes. Bounced around with the Ravens and other PS, but if they wanted him, they could sign him. He looked okay in preseason, but why he is viewed like a solution, I dunno.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Yes. Bounced around with the Ravens and other PS, but if they wanted him, they could sign him. He looked okay in preseason, but why he is viewed like a solution, I dunno.
I think because some reporter made it sound like he should make the roster as a blocking TE. Of course he may be more useful then Mayle on the roster but oh well.
 
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