Sturm: Where's DeMarco when you need him?

Jiggyfly

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Sturm: Where's DeMarco when you need him? Cowboys' offense is NFL's worst on 3rd and 1



So much of 2015 has been boiled down to having the Quarterback in the huddle. If this team is to go anywhere, it must have Tony Romo, right? Or, if not, it must have better QB play from the backups. This whole thing can be explained away by not having a QB do impressive QB things.

But, what about the situations where the QB has almost nothing to do with the play?
This is the case with the most basic of offensive football situations. 3rd and 1.

So much of football requires precise skill and big chunks of yardage. But, on 3rd and 1, when your entire possession relies on your ability to get 36 inches by generally utilizing brute strength, it is often just 22 men in a phone booth playing what amounts to a 2-second match of muscle.

You would assume that the Dallas Cowboys would be great at this. After all, who would you rather have on your side when you need a yard than Travis Frederick, Zack Martin, Lael Collins, and Tyron Smith? All regarded as blue chip talents and lauded for what they accomplish, surely the Cowboys are well equipped to get 3rd and 1, even if the QB play makes 3rd and 10 next to impossible, right?

Wrong.

All season long, this team has struggled on 3rd downs, but just about all of these issues come back to the fact that not only are the Cowboys bad on 3rd and 1 - they are the worst. And, not even that says it strongly enough. They are dead last by a good ways.

On 17 occasions this season, the Cowboys have had 3rd and 1. Just to give you an idea of what the normal NFL team is doing in these situations, the league average on 3rd and 1 is converting 66% of the time. Oakland, Seattle, Philadelphia, and San Diego all convert 3rd and 1 at over 80%. On the other side, Baltimore and Green Bay are very poor in these scenarios and they only convert 50%. But, even those teams can look down their noses at the Cowboys.

Dallas has had 17 cracks at 3rd and 1 and have converted only 7 times for 41%. Broken down, they have passed 5 times and are 1 for 5 on 3rd and 1 passes (Romo twice, Weeden twice, Cassel once) and run 12 times in which they have converted on 6 of 12.

This is just awful any way you look at it. And it leads to many other issues that then creep in as you turn touchdowns into field goals with this inefficiency and field goals into punts. To make matters even worse, when you look carefully at this team's issues, we are led to believe they are generally poor on 3rd down because of QB play. By the way, it sure looked like that on Monday night as Cassel struggled on 3rd down, partly because Washington brought the Cover 0 blitzes to get right in his face.

While there is some truth to it, the fact is that the Cowboys are at least league-average when it comes to 3rd downs if you simply look at the numbers for 3rd and medium or 3rd and long - where it relies most on the QB's ability to be great. But, on 3rd and short, it is mostly his job to hand the ball off and get out of the way.
This, of course, does include a few exceptions: 1) the QB does have the ability to check into a different play if he sees big issues before the snap. And 2) some QBs, Cam Newton and Tom Brady both come to mind, are real threats on 3rd down to sneak the ball the 36 inches and just move the chains themselves. Even with Tony Romo healthy, this has seldom been a solution for the Cowboys. It is hard to recall very many conversions from Romo with a sneak.

So, when you pull the QB out of the mix, then you understand on 3rd and 1, you are trying to block 11 guys with 9 blockers. The ball carrier only needs a yard, but part of the math equation is the truth that there simply aren't enough guys to get you there.

Additionally, there are many (I am included in this group) that are driven crazy by knowing that Jason Garrett will not go for it on 4th and 1 to try to turn field goals into touchdowns when the odds are stacked against his team. But, to be fair to his decision making process, if the team is poor at 3rd and 1 - which they certainly are - why would there be optimism for 4th and 1?

Let's look at two crucial 3rd and 1 failures from Monday night.



Above is the 3rd and 1 in the 3rd Quarter at the Washington 15 yard line. This has been a great long drive, but the team needs 36 inches. As you can see, they go with 23 personnel which brings all 11 Redskins into the box. The Cowboys motion James Hanna and also have Tyler Clutts as lead blockers, but the real issue is an edge defender coming from the far left of the screen getting to McFadden quickly and grabbing him around the neck. You can also see that the play takes too long because the Redskins are flooding the gaps once they get the impression of the direction of the play.

Personally, I do not love the 23 personnel decision, but the Cowboys insist on it. I like spreading the defense out - Dez Bryant is on the sideline. Bryant attracts at least 2 defenders usually, but I suppose that would require the slightest hint that the QB might actually throw there. I also am a big fan at the FB dive here because the defense is keying on McFadden so often if you sneak it into the gut of the lead blocker, he has a chance - but again, the Cowboys have never considered giving Tyler Clutts the ball in a deceptive plan to get a yard. In 68 NFL games, Clutts has 0 NFL carries.

So, the Cowboys telegraph that McFadden is going to get the ball and trust their offensive line to hold off everyone, but as you can see, there are only 5 OL and 11 defenders. That means the tight ends have to be great, the lead blockers have to be great, and it has to hit quickly. You only need a yard, but it is not close to being a success.



Here is another. This followed the long pass to Dez to the 3 yard line. Surely this will be the go-ahead touchdown. They only need 3 yards. This is 3rd and Goal from the 1.
This time, it is 13 personnel. No Clutts, but also, no Dez! At the goal-line, no Dez? They elect Lucky Whitehead as a better asset, and Cassel motions him in. To do what?

Confusing, but as you can see, Doug Free loses his gap, and that means Jason Witten is left to deal with the massive Chris Baker and he loses, too. Again, a real mess at the point of attack that seems to cause us to question the actual concept and play design.

The play has to happen fast, because the longer it takes, the more defenders come streaming down hill. This is the argument for the QB sneak or the spread out offense with 3 or 4 receivers trying to pull defenders out of the box.
Regardless, this team is no 7 for 17 on 3rd and 1. 41% when the league average is 66%. If you just convert at that clip, it is possible this team has a much better feel for their entire 3rd down performance.

The rest of the article is here.

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/dallas-cowboys/cowboys/2015/12/09/sturm-cowboys-offense-nfls-worst-3rd-1
 

Carp

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With all the BS going on in Philly now, you know Murray had to wish he could have worked something out in Dallas. The money is good and all, but you have to wonder how big of a difference the money is with no state taxes in Texas. Certainly it would be less, but he seems pretty miserable...it would not surprise me at all if he end up cut and back in Dallas this offseason.
 

Simpleton

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With all the BS going on in Philly now, you know Murray had to wish he could have worked something out in Dallas. The money is good and all, but you have to wonder how big of a difference the money is with no state taxes in Texas. Certainly it would be less, but he seems pretty miserable...it would not surprise me at all if he end up cut and back in Dallas this offseason.
Yea, agreed, it's kind of a zoneish proposition but how can the Eagles justify keeping Murray at his salary when they're seemingly fazing him out of the offense?

I realize they wouldn't really be saving any money but you free up cap hits in future years by biting the bullet now.

I'd be happy to bring him back to split carries with McFadden, I'm sure the organization would as well, I just wonder if his pride would allow him to come back here on a short contract paying him around 3-4 a year, if that.
 

Carp

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Yea, agreed, it's kind of a zoneish proposition but how can the Eagles justify keeping Murray at his salary when they're seemingly fazing him out of the offense?

I realize they wouldn't really be saving any money but you free up cap hits in future years by biting the bullet now.

I'd be happy to bring him back to split carries with McFadden, I'm sure the organization would as well, I just wonder if his pride would allow him to come back here on a short contract paying him around 3-4 a year, if that.
I doubt he has any pride left...he has been flatout humbled in Philly.
 

Simpleton

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I doubt he has any pride left...he has been flatout humbled in Philly.
Bringing him back would be perfect honestly. While I like Elliott and Henry, I'd really prefer to sign a solid vet who can split carries with McFadden in 2016, McFadden's contract runs out after next season and then we go into the 2017 draft looking at what could be the best RB draft class of all time. Draft a guy like Cook, Perine, Chubb, McCaffrey, etc., and let them split carries with Murray for a year or two before they become the bell cow.
 

Jiggyfly

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I doubt Murray converts either of those 3rd downs.
Yeah that's the way I saw it as well.

I wonder if not having a QB capable of getting them into another play is the real issue.

There always seems to be a man coming free or somebody in the gap who blows a play up.
 

Jiggyfly

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Like it has been mentioned before Murray is a 13 million cap hit for Philly next year if cut, it's highly doubtful they let him walk.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I doubt Murray converts either of those 3rd downs.
Pretty much. I absolutely hate predictability. Third and 1 if you go with a certain package it makes it very clear your only option is run the ball. Another package makes it very clear you're going to pass the ball.

I hate empty set backfield stuff just as much as I hate an offensive formation where Whitehead is your only receiver. They are both dumb because they are totally predictable. I have no idea why we have stopped trying to keep defenses off balance. It's very simple, if you run to set up the pass, in order for that to work you have to actually pass out of formations that look like you could run. Just as if you are going to pass to set up the run, you have to run out of the formations that you pass out of.

When you abandon that all together you end up with the predictable garbage that we see this year. And maybe it's just because we don't trust these guys. We don't trust Cassell and we don't trust McFadden. But a lack of trust is on the coaches, not the players.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Like it has been mentioned before Murray is a 13 million cap hit for Philly next year if cut, it's highly doubtful they let him walk.
That's not really the way any team should view the cap but you're probably right. They would be saving 7 mil by cutting Murray (His base salary) so unless they are in a cap squeeze they need to decide if he is worth 7 mil to keep.
 

Simpleton

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Pretty much. I absolutely hate predictability. Third and 1 if you go with a certain package it makes it very clear your only option is run the ball. Another package makes it very clear you're going to pass the ball.

I hate empty set backfield stuff just as much as I hate an offensive formation where Whitehead is your only receiver. They are both dumb because they are totally predictable. I have no idea why we have stopped trying to keep defenses off balance. It's very simple, if you run to set up the pass, in order for that to work you have to actually pass out of formations that look like you could run. Just as if you are going to pass to set up the run, you have to run out of the formations that you pass out of.

When you abandon that all together you end up with the predictable garbage that we see this year. And maybe it's just because we don't trust these guys. We don't trust Cassell and we don't trust McFadden. But a lack of trust is on the coaches, not the players.
I agree, we telegraph alot with our formations.

It absolutely drove me crazy how often we would go empty backfield last year on 3rd and 2-4 despite the fact that Murray was usually ripping defenses up. And yes, when Dez is off the field it's a huge tip that we're running.
 

Carp

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Like it has been mentioned before Murray is a 13 million cap hit for Philly next year if cut, it's highly doubtful they let him walk.
If it is not working and he is causing issues, I have no doubt they would cut him. If he truly say down with Lurie to air his grievances with Kelly, then I think they would definitely cut him in an addition by subtraction way.
 

Jiggyfly

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That's not really the way any team should view the cap but you're probably right. They would be saving 7 mil by cutting Murray (His base salary) so unless they are in a cap squeeze they need to decide if he is worth 7 mil to keep.
No team should just take a 13 million cap hit just because, especially when they are deficient at so many other areas.

His base salary is 8 million and it is guaranteed next year so no they will not save that.
 

Jiggyfly

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If it is not working and he is causing issues, I have no doubt they would cut him. If he truly say down with Lurie to air his grievances with Kelly, then I think they would definitely cut him in an addition by subtraction way.
Ok I disagree, we will see how it works out.

It's not like he is burning bridges, he has said nothing about Chip publically and it's no guarantee Chip is still coach next year.
 

Cowboysrock55

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No team should just take a 13 million cap hit just because, especially when they are deficient at so many other areas.

His base salary is 8 million and it is guaranteed next year so no they will not save that.
Didn't know his base salary was guaranteed. Yeah, no reason to cut him then. Unless you just think he is eating up a roster spot that he is such a waste of space. Of course Chip Kelly is also the most unpredictable coach if he returns after this season.
 

dallen

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Could Eagles cut DeMarco Murray?

Posted by Mike Florio on December 9, 2015, 9:15 AM EST

The news that Eagles running back DeMarco Murray took to owner Jeffrey Lurie a contention that coach/de facto G.M. Chip Kelly lied to Murray about the offense and his role in it surely has prompted coach/de facto G.M. Chip Kelly to explore his options with the 2014 NFL rushing champ.

Or maybe the options already were explored before the news became news. Unless the ESPN report of the Murray/Lurie charter-flight sit-down was leaked by a disinterested eavesdropper, someone had a reason for getting the story out.

At first blush, common sense would point to Murray, who in theory would leak the story in order to help justify a poor performance in 2015, or to simply take his frustrations with Kelly beyond the organization and to the public. (Indeed, the story from Ed Werder at one point specifically cites “a source close to Murray.”)

But the story cites “sources,” which means it may have initially come from the Eagles, with Werder merely confirming the item through a source close to Murray.

Kelly already has shown that he doesn’t operate a star system, with different treatment given to certain players based on contract value and/or jersey sales. Kelly will get rid of players who don’t buy in, and nothing says “I don’t buy in” more than going over Kelly’s head to the owner of the franchise during the fairly short flight home immediately after the biggest win of the season.

If Kelly is thinking about getting rid of Murray, Kelly and the Eagles need to consider the potential fan and media reaction. Many, for example, still believe that the Eagles leaked vague suspicions of gang ties regarding receiver DeSean Jackson to help justify abruptly cutting him in 2014. If the Eagles are thinking about dumping Murray, the Eagles benefit from leaking their reasoning in advance.

The move would carry financial and salary-cap consequences, which would give the critics more fodder in the absence of solid reasoning for dumping Murray. For starters, the Eagles would take a cap charge of $4 million in 2016, reflecting the balance of his $5 million signing bonus.

More importantly, the Eagles owe Murray a fully-guaranteed base salary of $7 million for 2016. The only way to avoid that payment would be to cut him now, and then to have someone claim his contract on waivers.

That’s where this one gets the most interesting. Would another team step into the shoes of the Murray deal? With $5 million in signing bonus, a $3 million roster bonus, and most of a $1 million base salary for 2015 already paid, does a $7 million commitment for the stretch run in 2015 plus all of 2016 justify the investment?

If no one claims the Murray contract on waivers, he’ll become a free agent — and the Eagles would be entitled to an offset of the $7 million based on whatever he makes next season.

Either way, the biggest downside to cutting Murray comes not from the financial side but from the risk that Murray will show up on the roster of a division rival, like the Giants or the Cowboys. For that reason, the Eagles possibly leaked the story simply to explain in advance a decision to put Murray on ice for the rest of the year, accepting the fact that he’ll be owed up to $7 million in 2016 but avoiding the possibility that cutting him would come back to haunt the team in 2015.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/12/09/could-eagles-cut-demarco-murray/
 

Simpleton

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I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Eagles cut him honestly, especially if he doesn't want to be there, they may trade him out of spite but I can't see any team being willing to take on that contract when you consider his 2014 workload, his lack of production this year, etc.

He looks like he still has some gas in the tank but he just doesn't fit their blocking scheme, bringing him back here to split something like a 70/30 workload with McFadden would be ideal.
 

Clay_Allison

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Would be easier to fire Kelly and bring in an offense that fits Murray.
 

UncleMilti

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Above is the 3rd and 1 in the 3rd Quarter at the Washington 15 yard line. This has been a great long drive, but the team needs 36 inches. As you can see, they go with 23 personnel which brings all 11 Redskins into the box. The Cowboys motion James Hanna and also have Tyler Clutts as lead blockers, but the real issue is an edge defender coming from the far left of the screen getting to McFadden quickly and grabbing him around the neck. You can also see that the play takes too long because the Redskins are flooding the gaps once they get the impression of the direction of the play.

Personally, I do not love the 23 personnel decision, but the Cowboys insist on it. I like spreading the defense out - Dez Bryant is on the sideline. Bryant attracts at least 2 defenders usually, but I suppose that would require the slightest hint that the QB might actually throw there.
This is nothing more than Garretts ego getting in the way, trying to prove his shitty offensive philosophy works.

Fuck the RHG.
 

Cotton

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