Sturm's Marinelli Report - Following the Recipe Is Getting Results

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm, Special contributor

It is a short week and therefore, in the interest of time, we will probably make this a shorter version of our weekly check-in with the defense.

I think it is still a fair and reasonable question to wonder just how good the Cowboys defense really is in 2016. We have seen very good signs at different times this season - including Sunday. They get off the field in rather short order. They allow fewer than 17 points. They did not allow Baltimore to dictate the proceedings like Pittsburgh was for stretches.

But, there are also potentially problematic indicators in the other direction that we should not ignore. For instance:


  • They are now sliding back in takeaways again. At the moment, they are tied for 23rd in Takeaways with 10. There are just 6 defenses that have taken the ball away fewer times than the Cowboys and they don't have a takeaway since the Philadelphia game. Interception rate is now all the way down at 30th.
  • Sacks are also regressing. After an uptick for many weeks, the last 2 weeks again have been rather quiet with which finds them tied for 19th and sliding back to the bottom third of the league again. Sacks per pass attempt is down to 24th.
  • Opponents yards per game is holding strong, but opponent's yards per play is not. At 23rd, they are exactly the same as a Washington defense that is widely regarded as poor, but does not have the benefit of being protected by its offense.
  • The Cowboys run defense might actually be poor. Per play they are 21st in the league. But, per game they are 3rd. The reason? No team in the NFL has faced fewer run plays than the Cowboys. They have faced 199 runs all season and the next best is 224. Nobody runs against the Cowboys. Especially after halftime. Why? Because in the 2nd half, you are passing to get back in the game. And overall, you are running the fewer plays.

So, basically, the recipe is working. Have an offense so good that the defense never has to actually prove how good it really is. We should also admit that there is some level of "only regular season" component to this in that you do get to play opponents in the regular season that are easier to manipulate. One would assume that in January, you will actually have to pass some quality tests on both sides of the ball. Then again, besides Seattle, who has that full squad in the NFC?

WEEKLY DATA BOX - RAVENS



Here we go with the weekly view of the sum totals. 3rd Down success for the defense (anything under 40% is a very nice day), explosive plays are back in a reasonable range, and time of possession is A+. But, again, no takeaways and 1 sack suggest that it is tough to say this is a good defense as much as it remains a protected defense.

In no way am I trying to play the role of contrarian or harsh your buzz, because they are 9-1 and this is seemingly working quite well. Two weeks ago I suggest this defense is exceeding expectations, but it was under the premise that the offense is basically playing defense. If we are going to have conversations about just the defense without heaping praise on the offense again, we should probably look reality in the face and wonder how much better this defense is than the 2015 version. The reality is starting to appear to suggest that there is almost no difference whatsoever, except the massive question of exposure.

And that is the trick the team is playing very well.

JOE FLACCO THROW CHART



As you can see, teams want to go after Anthony Brown deep, but to his credit, he is fighting his tail off. I really have enjoyed the tenacity of the young rookie. Also, most of their yardage was on inside routes across the middle. The reason we don't mind those as much as that brings many more defenders back in play to corral and tackle the receiver. Plays on the edge are far more dangerous, of course, for just the opposite reason.

Let's look at some tape for a moment or two. I wanted to look at those 3 big runs the Ravens got in the 1st half and then wonder why they stopped running the ball altogether after doing this.



20 Personnel for the Ravens. 3 WR puts the Cowboys in nickel which as math teaches us leaves 6 "bigs" with 4 DL and 2 LB to deal with a potential run. That means if the FB can get his own guy, you have 6 on 6 in the box and likely will need someone to win or a DB will have to make the tackle.

Cedric Thornton - 92 - gets double teamed by the center/guard and that provides the cutback lane. Anthony Hitchens, who has really struggled against the run (which might not really be his fault because he is clearly their best option or they would have found another one by now - get well soon, Jaylon Smith), is the free man here and he again over-pursues and appears to take himself out of the play. He has to mirror the RB and be there for a cutback, but that is not something he has proven to do very well.



Next play. 11 personnel. Same numbers situation. This time, DeMarcus Lawrence is unblocked but the Ravens use a fake end around to hold him in place, which allows the RB to get through. Once he does, look at their awesome guard 73-Marshall Yanda wall off big Terrell McClain after the center chips him over and then goes and gets Hitchens, too. This is very well blocked. It also doesn't help that Anthony Brown is unaware of what is happening and the safeties are really deep due to the 3 WRs. Running out of 11 personnel is a very good tool in today's NFL. There is so much more space.



Next play again, and you can see the Cowboys are now confused. Here is another well blocked inside run with a pulling guard and a lead Fullback. The RB sets the delay with his feet and allows his guys to get the timing right inside and once JJ Wilcox gets his angles wrong, the play is in the end zone.

The Ravens look like a really good running team in this sequence and shredded the Cowboys defensive front. The Cowboys made some adjustments after this, but the biggest one seems to be that the Ravens got away from this altogether.

Now, here are a few of the key plays in the 2nd half to get off the field. You must make 3rd down stop to cover all sorts of smaller issues.



This is the very nice breakup by Anthony Brown on a comeback route to Mike Wallace. The questions here are to look at the pass rush (or lack thereof) and the question of "how big of a hole would Joe Flacco need to just run for it?" That all said, Brown made a real nice play here on 3rd down and this is what he needs to do to avoid being targeted more.



And then, later in the 3rd, the Cowboys got off the field again when JJ Wilcox, in a Cover-2 shell, wrecked a crossing pattern to Wallace again and did not get this angle wrong. Direct hit.



JJ Wilcox is certainly a controversial figure in Cowboys fandom, but nobody hits harder. He seems to be box safety asked to try to play in space, but you have to love the aggression.

WEEK 11 - SPLASH PLAYS - RAVENS



And look who had a big day again. David Irving! It is a pretty nice trick for the guy who is tied for 17th in defensive snaps to be on top of your splash play chart after 10 games, right? Well, behold.

SEASON TOTALS - SPLASH PLAYS



I have said it before and I will say it again. I have no idea why David Irving doesn't play more. He has 203 snaps this season. That is 426 fewer than Sean Lee. I am not saying he should be up that high, but guys, let's split the difference!

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

The summary is this. They have taken a step back defensively since losing two key components. Both appear that they may return, so that is good news. Otherwise, know that Kirk Cousins just destroyed Green Bay's silly secondary and will have deep plans for Dallas, too. In Week 2, he definitely was able to accomplish some things over the top.

The Cowboys likely don't have a good defense this year. Next year, with Jaylon Smith and another few in the draft, they can start handling their own business better. This season, the plan is to continue to scrap their tails off. Make a few plays (turnovers or 3rd down stops) and let the offense do the rest.

It is certainly working so far.
 

Cotton

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David Irving with the most splash plays on the defense and only 17th in snaps. Play that man more.
 

ravidubey

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LB play outside of Lee is just not up to NFL snuff.

Good to see our DL trending upwards.
 

GShock

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slurs definitely have the weapons to exploit this defense. They like what they have now with Kelly at RB, and while Jones may be able to neutralize Reed, Crowder is turning out to be a PITA, and Wilcox and Hitchens up the gut of this defense is simply a liability. Unlike Flacco, Cousins won't hesitate to take those alleys and run.

This defense has to find a way to generate a pass rush and turnovers.
 

Cowboysrock55

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slurs definitely have the weapons to exploit this defense. They like what they have now with Kelly at RB, and while Jones may be able to neutralize Reed, Crowder is turning out to be a PITA, and Wilcox and Hitchens up the gut of this defense is simply a liability. Unlike Flacco, Cousins won't hesitate to take those alleys and run.

This defense has to find a way to generate a pass rush and turnovers.
Kirk Cousins is so streaky. He loves to toss up those deep balls though. The real key to this game will be stopping the run with the front 7 so that we can keep 2 safeties in deep coverage. Cousin's is too streaky to dink and dunk his way down the field in my opinion. But if you give him the bombs to DeSean Jackson and Crowder he will throw those balls and get the quick points. And obviously if you can't stop the run, they won't even need to pass the ball.

It should be a good game to watch. I just hope Cousins has an off day.
 

Simpleton

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Kirk Cousins is so streaky. He loves to toss up those deep balls though. The real key to this game will be stopping the run with the front 7 so that we can keep 2 safeties in deep coverage. Cousin's is too streaky to dink and dunk his way down the field in my opinion. But if you give him the bombs to DeSean Jackson and Crowder he will throw those balls and get the quick points. And obviously if you can't stop the run, they won't even need to pass the ball.

It should be a good game to watch. I just hope Cousins has an off day.
Indeed he is.

My biggest concern is that they have a multitude of weapons in the passing game and love to throw short, none of their receivers are elite, aside from Reed, but the problem is that they have several credible threats and we're missing two starters in the secondary.

We have to stop their running game (which is generally average) and then force them into being one dimensional.
 

Simpleton

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LB play outside of Lee is just not up to NFL snuff.

Good to see our DL trending upwards.
LB is just as big a need on the defense in my opinion going into the 2017 offseason.

Obviously if Smith can come back at 90% or so that's a huge boost, but I'd draft a LB in the 1st if they're the BPA.
 

Rock Slamdance

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LB is just as big a need on the defense in my opinion going into the 2017 offseason.

Obviously if Smith can come back at 90% or so that's a huge boost, but I'd draft a LB in the 1st if they're the BPA.
Agreed. Smith will help, but it's still a position that needs to be addressed. Hitchens is a nice rotation guy, but I'd rather have somebody with more size and speed starting.
 

Simpleton

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On the Ravens first TD drive Dixon and West combined for 58 yards on just 4 carries. The rest of the game they combined for 24 yards on 9 carries, the vast majority of those carries came with the Ravens leading or when the game was still within one score, but then they found themselves down 14 and their running game had been mostly ineffective, so they were forced to throw.

They didn't really get away from running the ball, they could've maybe stayed a little more committed, but in reality they had one fluke drive, then were mostly shut down the rest of the game and were forced to throw because they were down two scores.
 

Simpleton

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Agreed. Smith will help, but it's still a position that needs to be addressed. Hitchens is a nice rotation guy, but I'd rather have somebody with more size and speed starting.
Yea I mean the thing is that in today's NFL you aren't really starting three LB's anymore, so if I knew for a fact that we could rely on Smith it wouldn't be that huge of a deal. I'd still look for an LB at some point, but not necessarily in the 1st, and I'd be ok with foregoing a traditional 235-240 lb player for one of these LB/S hybrids like Deone Bucannon, because these days if you have two three-down LB's you're pretty much good to go, then you can fill in around them with specialty players.

I just don't know what we can count on with Smith, I'm optimistic, but I also want two three-down LB's and if one is sitting there in the 1st and is the BPA, I wouldn't hesitate.

Of course Lee's injury history is another consideration also.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Yea I mean the thing is that in today's NFL you aren't really starting three LB's anymore, so if I knew for a fact that we could rely on Smith it wouldn't be that huge of a deal. I'd still look for an LB at some point, but not necessarily in the 1st, and I'd be ok with foregoing a traditional 235-240 lb player for one of these LB/S hybrids like Deone Bucannon, because these days if you have two three-down LB's you're pretty much good to go, then you can fill in around them with specialty players.

I just don't know what we can count on with Smith, I'm optimistic, but I also want two three-down LB's and if one is sitting there in the 1st and is the BPA, I wouldn't hesitate.

Of course Lee's injury history is another consideration also.
With Jaylon Smith I'm not so hot on drafting a LBer high. Jaylon and Sean Lee with Wilson and Hitchens filling in the depth is really all you need. But with a pick at the end of the first round I just want an impact guy. You don't pass on a Bobby Wagner simply because DE or WR is a bigger need. Of course a talent like Jabrill Peppers will do as well. Obviously I expect him to be gone near the top of the draft but a hybrid like him would be great. A guy who can tackle and hit well but run and cover like a safety.
 
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