Sturm: Marinelli Report - The Perfect Plan To Take Down the Packers

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm, Special contributor

Today's topic as we discuss the defense revolves around the simple question of "how many points is a reasonable amount to allow in a game?"

It is important to remember that this is a league where the margins are very close and every opponent has some exceptional talent on it. If you want a level of football where you play several games against completely incompetent opponents, the NFL isn't for you. This is the highest level of the sport, and therefore, even the worst teams have many unreal football players on it. Parity. It is what this league is founded upon.

And for that reason, expectation levels for any defensive coordinator need to remain in the realm of "reasonable" rather than "fantasy". Of course, you would prefer to give up no yards and no points, but let's understand that most the time, even the poor teams are able to eat up statistics.

The NFL has a pretty constant "average points per game per team" number in the last several seasons. It sits at about 23 points per team.

So, as a defense in this league - especially a defense that is in Dallas and doesn't seem to ever get their fair share of resources (premium draft picks and salary cap space) - you are just competing against that number. In other words, you realize having the best defense in the league is not reasonable without investment. But, the plan on this side of the ball has always been, to steal a phrase that I liked, "trying to get to average."

If you want a top team in this league and to be in the mix for a Super Bowl every January, I would contend that very rarely does a team come along that is "top 5" in offense and defense. If there is, it is usually for just a flash. Instead, you want to get one side of the ball to "elite" and the other side to league average. This seems to put you in the mix for a Super Bowl.

With that in mind, the Cowboys are trying to get under that 23 ppg barrier. And they have done a nice job of it with Rod Marinelli. You can tell it is easier when the offense is what it was advertised to be (elite). But, this season, the level has dropped substantially in a good direction and after 2 weeks where they faced supposed playoff offenses and allowed 30 points in 2 games, optimism is bubbling over.



So the line is 23 ppg. That is league average for any offense to score or any defense to allow. It is early, but getting below 23 has never been easy and if they did it, it was barely. I cannot stress how impressive the first 6 weeks has been for this defense. In fact, the season high they have allowed was 23 points to Washington. Nobody has surpassed 23 points even once against Marinelli's crew. Nobody!

Now, let's look at it from a perspective of what I would consider "great games". These are games where you do not allow 21. Games where the Dallas defense allowed 20 points or less in a game.



Those are all full seasons, guys, except this year. This year is just through 6 games! They have 10 games to go. They have 5 games of allowing 20 points or less in 6 games. They have really done well in the bend-but-don't-break defense and the pursuit of average. For now, they have flown by average to a point where we better start asking whether their plan has really worked brilliantly.

And for that plan to work, they needed big performances from guys you didn't expect and that the league knew nothing about.

Sunday was all about those guys. Look at the names on the splash chart. By the way, the pure number of splashes is the highest since I started keeping this stat. 21 splash plays! They got to 20 splashes 3 different times in 2014, but that flurry at the end of this game where they kept stripping the ball loose put them in a new place.

WEEK 6 SPLASH PLAYS



Anthony Brown, Terrell McClain, and David Irving? Who are these guys? Ryan Davis? Benson Mayowa? Is this a no-name defense or what? I could see it if they were led by Sean Lee and DeMarcus Lawrence or Tyrone Crawford. Instead, many of the biggest plays from this big day at Lambeau Field were made by guys making a million dollars a year or less. Bargain basement production is surely the key to figuring out how to skin a cat with no resources.

It is also interesting to see how many splashes I had to share between 2 guys. I try to avoid this, but on many occasions on Sunday, 2 guys arrived at the exact same time on players. In other words, Rod continues to get these guys all flying to the ball and making plays.

Let's look at the tape, coach.



This is Anthony Brown. Hopefully, you are up to speed with his fine work by now, but he is their 6th round pick out of Purdue (one of several 6th rounders, actually). This guy has had to fill in for Orlando Scandrick almost every week this season and given that you haven't see him make too many mistakes, we should be happy. Now, he is getting confident and showing off one of his best attributes - tackling. Here is Randall Cobb in the open field.



Here is Jordy Nelson trying to get to the sticks on 3rd down. Also, notice the 3-man rush from the Cowboys. The Packers hate this. Rodgers has all day, but is being kept in the pocket. 8 players in zones trying to give him nowhere to go.



Here is Anthony Brown one more time. Not sure what the lead blocker is doing here as he runs by Brown on his way to nowhere, but Brown closes fast and gets a big tackle for a loss here. Starting to wonder if this is the best draft class in decades around here. And we haven't seen Jaylon Smith yet.



Here is my favorite defensive player these days. Terrell McClain has just been a pleasure this season. So much so, that I might try to get him signed during the bye week because he has already earned an extension from me. Look at this. He plays it like a linebacker, scraping to the play and then a form tackle on Eddie Lacy. Gracious.



Look at McClain blow up the center here and score another TFL. Such a great combination of strength and quickness.

Finally, my other offseason delight was David Irving. I hope you read this back at camp. I still don't know why his snap totals are so low. But, they won't be able to keep them down if he keeps taking over games like this. He just turned 23. And he was unreal in this game with 6 splashes. Yes, he was given double credit if you can strip a fumble and then recover it.



He is such an active and massive body. And look at his go. Strips Rodgers and then goes and gets it out of the pile. Awesome stuff, #95. And did you see they had 97 and 95 together inside on that play?



And this is the 3-man rush again. But, Irving still gets to the ball to knock it loose. Nobody is open again. This is a coverage sack and the ball comes out.

Those 3 players - Brown, McClain, and Irving will make a total of $2.1 million combined this year. In a league where Jeff Heath makes $1.9 million, I would say there is some value in that trio.

WEEKLY DATA BOX



I realize that the Cowboys might have just had to hand the Packers the rope and they would fashion their own noose, but the Cowboys should not apologize for an awesome 4 takeaway performance where they did not allow the Packers into the end zone until it was too late and also under 400 yards in a home game and under 20 points.

AARON RODGERS THROW CHART



Those blue dots on the right were the constant swing passes to safety valves that Rodgers had to continuously settle for. Most of it as the Cowboys decided to drop deep into coverage to simply allow things underneath. Rodgers did miss some throws down the field, but the plan was perfect.

And here it is, give him time, but no options - Here is how Marinelli deployed his pass rushers:



See, don't rush him. Frustrate him with no open spots to throw. Keep him in the pocket with a spy, but flood the zones and make him make perfect throws. Some times, Rodgers can. Right now, he obviously cannot.

SEASON SPLASH TOTALS - THRU 6 WEEKS



If you expected the leader board to look like this, you should gamble. I never imagined this would materialize like this.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Many of the statistics should remind us to remain suspicious that this model is sustainable. To be honest, we don't fully know how much of their early success is completely "situation reliant" and a testament to the offense right now.

They are 23rd in yards per rush and 20th in yards per pass. 23rd in sacks per attempt and 29th on 3rd downs.

A lot of things need to improve and can improve. At the same time, it seems a story is worth telling about this first stretch for the defense beyond the offense being so great. If you watch the games, it is worth seeing that they fly to the ball and seem to make the offenses frustrated.

Honestly, we will need to see more before we offer any proclamations, but they are off to quite a start with a lot of unknown players stepping up.
 
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