Archer: Dallas Cowboys will be above .500 in 2016

Dallas Cowboys will be above .500 in 2016

7:50 PM ET
Todd Archer
ESPN Staff Writer

After a miserable 4-12 finish in 2015, the Dallas Cowboys will look to go worst to first in the NFC East. But in order to do so, they will need a fast start. In April, I gave the Cowboys a 10-6 record. Before Tony Romo's most recent back injury, I was going to give them another 10-6 finish. Now? Not so much.

Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 11 vs. New York Giants, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Cowboys open with the Giants for the sixth time since 2007 and Romo carried a five-game winning streak against the NFC East rivals into the opener, but he’s out. Still, Dak Prescott shocks the world. Well, maybe not the world, but the Cowboys pull the surprise. Record: 1-0.

Week 2: Sunday, Sept. 18 at Washington Redskins, 1 p.m. ET

The Cowboys won last season at FedEx Field with Matt Cassel as their starter, but asking Prescott to win his first road game against an NFC East foe is a little too much. The Dez Bryant-Josh Norman matchup should be high drama, but can the Cowboys slow down Kirk Cousins? Record: 1-1.

Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 25 vs. Chicago Bears, 8:30 p.m. ET

The first hinge-point of the season. The Bears might be a surprise team this year, especially considering John Fox’s history. Prescott should be more comfortable and the Cowboys should be able to run the ball well. It will be a squeaker with Dan Bailey hitting a winning field goal late. Record: 2-1.

Week 4: Sunday, Oct. 2 at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET

I wonder if Chip Kelly would like to have Prescott running his offense instead of Blaine Gabbert or Colin Kaepernick. The Cowboys did a decent job against Kelly when he was in Philadelphia, but can you expect a 3-1 record at the quarter mark with a rookie QB? Record: 2-2.

Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 9 vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Bengals will be making their first regular-season appearance at AT&T Stadium. Andy Dalton starred at nearby TCU and he has A.J. Green and a lot of weapons to choose from. Record: 2-3.

Week 6: Sunday, Oct. 16 at Green Bay Packers, 4:25 p.m. ET

How fitting would it be that Romo's return coincides with a trip to his home state? Seems to be a storybook deal. Let’s go with it. Bryant won’t have a catch called back at the goal line like he did in 2014. Record: 3-3.

Week 7: BYE

Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 30 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 8:30 p.m. ET

In January many people thought the Cowboys were going to draft Carson Wentz because they got to know him so well at the Senior Bowl. Maybe that knowledge from a week of practice will help them since he will be the Eagles’ starter. Record: 4-3. Record: 4-3.

Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 6 at Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m. ET

Jerry Jones could barely breathe after witnessing what Robert Griffin III did to the Cowboys in 2012 with Washington. The Browns might be better than people think, but the Cowboys will get to the midway point with one of the best records in the NFC. Record: 5-3.

Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:25 p.m. ET

The NFL was never better when the Cowboys and Steelers were meeting in Super Bowls. This game features two of the best offenses in the NFL with Romo, Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott going against Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers' defense is just a bit better than Dallas'. Record: 5-4.

Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 20 vs. Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m. ET

Back-to-back games against the black-and-blue division will leave the Cowboys a bit battered. The Ravens are looking to bounce back from a horrendous 2015 like the Cowboys. Record: 5-5.

Week 12: Thursday, Nov. 24 vs. Washington Redskins, 4:30 p.m. ET

Romo has not liked the short week leading into Thanksgiving the past two years, with no touchdown passes and five interceptions in losses to Philadelphia and Carolina, but this is a must win with a two-game losing streak. The Cowboys split the season series with Washington. Record: 6-5.

Week 13: Thursday, Dec. 1 at Minnesota Vikings, 8:25 p.m. ET

Mike Zimmer made his bones as a Cowboys assistant coach for years. He’s now one of the best head coaches after finally getting his chance. Adrian Peterson will show Elliot that he is still the league’s best runner. Record: 6-6.

Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 11 at New York Giants, 8:30 p.m. ET

We mentioned Romo’s winning streak against the Giants in previewing the opener. He has been a Giant killer with his late-game heroics. Having 10 days to get ready for this one will help, but the Giants have a defense that is much improved from last season. Record: 6-7.

Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 18 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET

Bryant wasn’t healthy when these teams played last season. Romo didn’t play. The defense was good enough, but faltered late against Jameis Winston. That doesn’t happen this season. Record: 7-7.

Week 16: Monday, Dec. 26 vs. Detroit Lions, 8:30 p.m. ET

Calvin Johnson won’t be around to torment the Cowboys, which is a good thing. Perhaps the Lions will be carrying the scars of their controversial playoff loss at AT&T Stadium with them. The Tyron Smith vs. Ziggy Ansah matchup will be worth the price of admission. Record: 8-7.

Week 17: Sunday, Jan. 1 at Philadelphia Eagles, 1 p.m. ET

Another win-and-in situation for the Cowboys? Why not? It happened in 2008, 2011-13, and they lost them all. Given the Romo injury to start the season, the fact that the Cowboys are in this spot is noteworthy. This time they get the happy ending and make the playoffs. Record: 9-7.

8-8

So we'll lose at SF, but win in GB...makes perfect sense.

Carp said:

So we'll lose at SF, but win in GB...makes perfect sense.

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I think we will be 3-3 when Romo returns after the bye week. Swap the loss to the 49ers with the win over Green Bay.

After that it depends how long Romo stays healthy and how much better Dak has gotten. Plus maybe we have a couple DEs added to the roster.

Cowboysrock55 said:

I think we will be 3-3 when Romo returns after the bye week. Swap the loss to the 49ers with the win over Green Bay.

After that it depends how long Romo stays healthy and how much better Dak has gotten. Plus maybe we have a couple DEs added to the roster.

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Call me crazy, but I see us having a better record than that after 6. I think 4-2, with 5-1 not impossible.

Iamtdg said:

Call me crazy, but I see us having a better record than that after 6. I think 4-2, with 5-1 not impossible.

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It could be, I'm just trying to not set myself up for a let down with Dak. Last year we couldn't win more than a game without Romo. Dak is way better then those QBs so who knows.

Also the advantage is teams early in the season may not have any tendancies on Dak yet. As the season goes on teams will have a better idea on how to defend Dak. So I wouldn't be surprised if Dak starts out really hot and maybe cools a little bit if he starts late in the season.

Cowboysrock55 said:

It could be, I'm just trying to not set myself up for a let down with Dak. Last year we couldn't win more than a game without Romo. Dak is way better then those QBs so who knows.

Also the advantage is teams early in the season may not have any tendancies on Dak yet. As the season goes on teams will have a better idea on how to defend Dak. So I wouldn't be surprised if Dak starts out really hot and maybe cools a little bit if he starts late in the season.

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I have let myself get sucked in by Dak's preseason performances. I know it's a mistake, but I just can't help myself. My inner homer is dying to show it's ugly face again.

Iamtdg said:

I have let myself get sucked in by Dak's preseason performances. I know it's a mistake, but I just can't help myself. My inner homer is dying to show it's ugly face again.

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Dam looks great... My fear is that Garrett and Linehan crawl into a conservative shell and coach him into "bus driver" mode and start playing "not to lose". They need to give him quick, simple reads-- and tell him to take off it's not there. Use his legs like to stress the defense.

IMO-- Dak has the competitive fire and decisiveness to be a good QB. His personality and love of the game could be contagious-- just let him off the leash. He's the kind of player that could set the tone for the whole team if he starts making plays and gaining some confidence.

Assuming Romo comes back and doesn't get injured again I think 3-3 over the first 6 makes us a near lock to win the division, while 2-4 would give us a damn good shot at winning it as well. Of course who knows how long Romo will last once he's back.

I see us starting 3-1 but falter to 3-3 then it all depends on Romo and if he's good to go or not.

Between a rookie QB starting and this defense, i don't see us finishing above .500.

VA Cowboy said:

Between a rookie QB starting and this defense, i don't see us finishing above .500.

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Sort of depends how good Dak is and how many games Romo actually plays. Romo could potentially start 10 games. Or he may start 1.

is it sad how you hope and pray the bye week is early every year so that romo will get a week off and (hopefully) come back healthy while the season is still salvageable?