Archer: Would a runner make sense for the Cowboys at No. 4?

boozeman

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Would a runner make sense for the Cowboys at No. 4?


10:26 AM ET
Todd Archer
ESPN Staff Writer


IRVING, Texas -- For the last few years the running back position has taken more hits than a presidential candidate.

Since 2012, there have been only five running backs chosen in the first round, with none in 2013 and 2014. Maybe it is the curse of Trent Richardson, who was the third overall pick in 2012 by the Cleveland Browns and found himself traded in his second season and out of football last year.

But then the St. Louis Rams took Todd Gurley with the 10th overall pick, knowing he needed time to recover from a knee injury suffered at Georgia. In 13 games, Gurley had 1,106 yards rushing with 10 touchdowns and looks to be the game’s next great running back.

Could they take a running back with the fourth overall pick? Ability-wise there are no questions about Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott. He is the best runner available in the draft. He had 1,821 yards and 23 touchdowns for the Buckeyes in 2015. He also caught 27 passes for 206 yards and is considered a devastating blocker too.

When it comes to running backs, it’s not so much about talent, it’s about the long term. Teams picking in the top 10 want that player to be an 8-10 year foundational piece. Running backs have been feeling the pinch because historically production drops once they reach 30 years old, if not a little before that.

That’s why teams are leery to sign running backs to big free-agent contracts. The Cowboys would go only so far financially to keep DeMarco Murray because of their analysis of age and production for running backs.

“I think you look at backs a little different,” Cowboys executive vice president Stephen Jones said. “Most of the backs that you pick are ready to come in and play right now, unless there is an injury issue like Gurley. But he was still able to come in and be pretty productive even though he missed the first four to six games, whatever that was.”

The fourth pick in the draft this year is set to earn a four-year deal worth roughly $24 million, fully guaranteed. Teams can pick up the fifth-year options on their first-round picks after the third season. A top-10 pick earns the transition tag at their position.

This year, the transition tag is $9.6 million for running backs. That number should go down at least a little by 2020 because teams simply aren’t paying big money for runners these days.

By 2019, only Murray and LeSean McCoy are currently on the books for more than $9 million per year, and the chances that either plays out his contract by then are slim.

So the question becomes would you want a running back fresh out of college on a five-year deal worth, say, $33 million total? Is that more palatable than, say, signing a Lamar Miller in free agency for a similar price?

If you are hung up on the second contract, the answer will likely always be no. If you look at running backs as a position to churn through players, then maybe you say yes.

The Cowboys drafted Morris Claiborne with the sixth overall pick in 2012, believing they made a steal of a move to trade up for what was considered the best cornerback available. They saw Claiborne as an 8-10 year player.

In four seasons, Claiborne missed 24 regular-season games, intercepted three passes and the Cowboys did not pick up the fifth-year option. They hope to re-sign him as a free agent but will have a difficult time coming to an agreement on his price.

Claiborne is proof that there are no guarantees, despite the grade they had on him entering the draft.

Five years is a lifetime in the NFL, especially at running back.

If you are virtually guaranteed top-end production for a five-year run, especially with an offensive line the Cowboys employ, why care about years six through whatever?

“I think you would look at a back a little differently in terms of being successful if you can't resign them like DeMarco,” Jones said. “I think DeMarco was a great pick in the third round. We just made a decision that it wasn’t efficient for us to spend that much money for his second contract. We would have for the right amount of money. We would have liked to have had him at that point.”
 

Cowboysrock55

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If you are virtually guaranteed top-end production for a five-year run, especially with an offensive line the Cowboys employ, why care about years six through whatever?
If the RB is having all the production because of the offensive line the Cowboys employ then why use such a high pick? It's a stupid argument. Like you're so afraid of failure that you're going to just take a player at a position that should be cake to fill. There is no way in hell Elliot is 4th player in the draft good. He just isn't that good of a RB. Regardless of what type of production he would have behind the best offensive line in football. Derrick Henry would probably have great production behind the offensive line too. Doesn't make him worthy of the fourth pick in the draft.
 

GShock

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If the RB is having all the production because of the offensive line the Cowboys employ then why use such a high pick? It's a stupid argument. Like you're so afraid of failure that you're going to just take a player at a position that should be cake to fill. There is no way in hell Elliot is 4th player in the draft good. He just isn't that good of a RB. Regardless of what type of production he would have behind the best offensive line in football. Derrick Henry would probably have great production behind the offensive line too. Doesn't make him worthy of the fourth pick in the draft.
I don't know that that is true.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I don't know that that is true.
Name RBs in the NFL on a current roster drafted in the top 4 picks? He isn't as good of a prospect as Gurley was. The hype train on Elliot on this board has gotten out of control. He is a RB with good size, good speed and good moves. But he isn't a special back.

RBs who have gone in the top 5 of the draft in recent history are:

Trent Richardson
Darren McFadden
Reggie Bush

(Prior to that it was Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams)
 

GShock

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Name RBs in the NFL on a current roster drafted in the top 4 picks? He isn't as good of a prospect as Gurley was. The hype train on Elliot on this board has gotten out of control. He is a RB with good size, good speed and good moves. But he isn't a special back.

RBs who have gone in the top 5 of the draft in recent history are:

Trent Richardson
Darren McFadden
Reggie Bush

(Prior to that it was Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams)
I can identify the top 5 busts at every position in past drafts, QB, DE, DT, OT, CB, etc.

It is this draft. For this team.

And in these circumstances, for this team, Zeke could thrive.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I can identify the top 5 busts at every position in past drafts, QB, DE, DT, OT, CB, etc.

It is this draft. For this team.

And in these circumstances, for this team, Zeke could thrive.
I wasn't naming busts. I was just naming top 5 picks at RB. Period. Didn't skip the good ones.

Just because Zeke could thrive given the circumstances in Dallas doesn't make Zeke a better prospect. It just means that Dallas has a great setup for any RB.
 

boozeman

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Name RBs in the NFL on a current roster drafted in the top 4 picks? He isn't as good of a prospect as Gurley was. The hype train on Elliot on this board has gotten out of control. He is a RB with good size, good speed and good moves. But he isn't a special back.

RBs who have gone in the top 5 of the draft in recent history are:

Trent Richardson
Darren McFadden
Reggie Bush

(Prior to that it was Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson and Cadillac Williams)
If you think for a minute this draft is anything like we have seen in recent years, I don't think you know what you are looking at.

And this is not like other drafts where you had clear cut top players.

In most years, it should not be much of a debate. I mean we have the 4th pick overall and aside from maybe Tunsil, there is not any one prospect that anyone can designate as blue chip. Everybody has issues. Knee problems, lack of production, lower level of competition, douche hair, pothead, you name it.

Elliott sticks out as an incredibly safe player. In a weird draft like this, he is more valuable.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Elliott sticks out as an incredibly safe player. In a weird draft like this, he is more valuable.
It is an odd draft. It's why I'm all about taking a QB or trading down. I don't want to stay put at 4 and take anyone but a QB.

But this safe pick nonsense is ridiculous. Elliot is only a safe pick because we have such an amazing set up for any RB that steps into this offense. Sheldon Rankins is a safe pick too. But I know, Dallas just won't take a DT in the first because Crawford and stuff. Doesn't make it right.
 

boozeman

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It is an odd draft. It's why I'm all about taking a QB or trading down. I don't want to stay put at 4 and take anyone but a QB.

But this safe pick nonsense is ridiculous. Elliot is only a safe pick because we have such an amazing set up for any RB that steps into this offense.
This is complete bullshit. It is the same stupidity that suggested "anyone can run behind this line" last year.

I don't give a shit how many empty crap yards McFadden accumulated, our run game was not the same. There was no consistency nor were we ever able to establish it to the point it was reliable enough to lean on.

Elliott is not just a runner, he is a quality receiver and more importantly, he can pass protect.

Those skills have zero to do with the offensive line or how good it is. Those skills are inherent in this player.
 

townsend

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RBs have had one of the highest bust factors. Myles Jack or Deforest Buckner may only be decent top 10ish prospects in other drafts, but Elliot's a guy who's no more likely to be a productive player than a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th round pick.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I don't give a shit how many empty crap yards McFadden accumulated, our run game was not the same. There was no consistency nor were we ever able to establish it to the point it was reliable enough to lean on.

Yeah, it's because we had Brandon Weeden at QB as opposed to Tony Romo. If you can't actually pass the ball it's hard to do anything consistently on offense.

Which by the way is all a convenient excuse for the crowd that thought we needed a stud RB behind our offensive line last year. Instead the offensive line took a shit free agent RB and made him a top 5 RB in the NFL.
 

Simpleton

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I wouldn't be thrilled with Elliott at 4 but I understand the theory behind it, namely that we have the best OL in the league and if you put an elite talent like Elliott back there, and he is elite, you could build a championship contender behind that type of synergy.

Now the real question is the opportunity cost, is taking Elliott at 4 that much more impactful than Henry in the 2nd? Alex Collins or Kenneth Dixon in the 3rd? Lamar Miller in free agency?

So much more so that we should pass up a potential difference maker in the front 7 or the obvious opportunity cost, a potential franchise QB?

I don't think so, although I sure as hell would love to see what Elliott could do behind this line.
 

ravidubey

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Elliot is a monster and will probably make a greater impact than any other rookie in this draft over the next three seasons.

He's the total package and short of Buckner I want him wearing a star. I could tolerate Bosa, but Elliot is a playmaker.

Taking him 4th overall would be (a little) lazy and taking him over Buckner not wise at all, but if we can't get a trade then I'd definitely pull the trigger.

Hard to imagine we couldn't squeeze a 3rd out of the 49ers to ensure they get Goff and then take Elliot 7th.

This guy makes the offense and defense instantly better. He's both a grinder and explosive. He can both catch and pass block. Think less injury prone Demarco Murray with better vision, balance, and speed.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I wouldn't be thrilled with Elliott at 4 but I understand the theory behind it, namely that we have the best OL in the league and if you put an elite talent like Elliott back there, and he is elite, you could build a championship contender behind that type of synergy.
You sound like one of those crappy BS motivational speakers when you use terms like that.

You either think Elliot is a truly special back ala Adrian Peterson and LT. Personally I don't see it. He doesn't have their type of speed or ability to make you miss and he doesn't have Peterson's break tackle.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Or like someone with a useful vocabulary.

The NFL is all about synergy... run-pass, offense-defense.
Synergy is a buzzword used by salesmen and marketers to get idiots to follow and buy into shit.
 

Simpleton

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Synergy is a buzzword used by salesmen and marketers to get idiots to follow and buy into shit.
Yea but it also makes sense within the context that I used it.

As far as him being Peterson or Tomlinson, no I don't think he is quite that level, but those are probably the top two RB's of the last 15-20 years, so there's that. I do think he is one of the best RB prospects to come out in a while and I would understand the temptation to put a talent like that behind an OL like the one we have in an attempt to create a running game so formidable that it could carry an average defense and an injury prone QB to a title.
 
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