MLB Chatter Thread

Rev

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
19,327
It is actually Iapoce, not Lapoce. I really don't know. Very difficult to measure the impact of a guy like that within the organization. I'll say this though...he did oversee the minor league hitting program and they got a lot of production from guys who started the season in the minors this year. Granted, guys like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, and Kyle Schwarber have a lot of talent and were all high 1st round picks so the talent was there, but they were pretty MLB-ready when they came up at young ages.

I suppose you have to give Iapoce some credit for this but it is just impossible for me to say how much. He just isn't a guy whose name comes up real often, even for someone like me who follows the organization closely (the position he held is important within the organization but rarely is covered in the news cycle surrounding the team unless you are way more into following the minor leagues than I am). Honestly I didn't know anything about him when they hired him a few years back and I still don't know much.
Thanks ED. I did see the I on the front but just thought it was a typo as the font where I saw it looked like this : l .

I hope he can bring some discipline to our hitters because they can be painful to watch.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
119,705
Thanks ED. I did see the I on the front but just thought it was a typo as the font where I saw it looked like this : l .

I hope he can bring some discipline to our hitters because they can be painful to watch.
It's so damn frustrating, and Fielder is one of the worst despite his good average last year.
 

E_D_Guapo

Brand New Member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
3,158
Thanks ED. I did see the I on the front but just thought it was a typo as the font where I saw it looked like this : l .

I hope he can bring some discipline to our hitters because they can be painful to watch.
Theo brought him in and it is an organizational philosophy to draft/develop guys with plate discipline who can work the count. I am sure that will be a major point of emphasis.
 

Carp

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
15,127
I'd like to see the Mets try d'Arnaud out in the OF. He is a defensively liability behind the plate, but he would be a plus arm in the OF and it would save the wear and tear on his body. Plawecki can play C or they can bring in a vet if they deal him.
 

Carp

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
15,127
The trade: The Seattle Mariners trade shortstop/outfielder Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison and right-hander Danny Farquhar to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Nathan Karns, left-hander C.J. Riefenhauser and minor league outfielder Boog Powell.

This looks like a good old-fashioned challenge trade, two teams dealing from a relative position of strength to fill obvious holes: The Rays need a shortstop with Asdrubal Cabrera hitting free agency, and the Mariners need to improve a rotation that finished ninth in the American League in ERA and has Hisashi Iwakuma as a free agent.

Miller is a guy I've always liked, a good athlete with some power and speed. His problem was on defense, where he'd boot routine plays, usually with bad throws. The Mariners finally gave up on him as a shortstop when they promoted Ketel Marte late in the season and tried him in the outfield, continuing a bad Mariners experiment of moving middle infielders to the outfield (Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin).

Here's the thing: Miller didn't look good in the field -- he was never smooth, and sort of flings the ball sidearm to first base -- but his defensive metrics weren't horrible there. In 2014, he rated at minus-3 Defensive Runs and in 2015 he rated at 4 runs below average. Over those years, Ultimate Zone Rating has him at plus-1.6 runs per 150 games, about on par with Jhonny Peralta and Erick Aybar, and nobody is moving those guys off shortstop.

As a Mariners fan who watched quite a bit of Miller, I can see why the Mariners dealt him. His errors also seemed to come at crucial moments, and ninth-inning errors lost a couple of games for the team. But his arm is pretty strong, and strong-armed shortstops are often underrated. The Rays are buying into the metrics more than the eye test; considering this is a team that has historically valued defense, Tampa Bay must be confident he can at least be average-ish at shortstop.

Miller hit .258/.329/.402 in 2015, a line that shoots up to .266/.350/.453 against right-handers. That's well above-average production for a shortstop. Trouble is, he hit .234/.264/.252 against southpaws, with only two doubles and no home runs in 111 at-bats, after hitting .170 against lefties in 2014. So there's some strong evidence that the lefty-hitting Miller needs a platoon partner, maybe Tim Beckham, who slugged .462 against lefties in 2015 and started 22 games at shortstop.

Karns went 7-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 26 starts as a rookie. He's not young, however, as he'll be entering his age-28 season, having begun his pro career late because of a torn labrum suffered in college and then battled control issues in the minors. With Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and former Mariner Erasmo Ramirez fronting the rotation, plus, one hopes, full seasons from Drew Smyly and Matt Moore and the possible return of Alex Cobb, the Rays had depth to deal. Karns throws a four-seam fastball up in the zone that isn't overpowering (average velocity 91.8 mph), and also throws a curveball and changeup. Scouts consider the curve his best pitch, and batters hit only .170 against it in 2015.

Karns averaged 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings with the Rays in 2015 and 10.3 per nine in his minor league career, so he always has been able to put away batters. The Rays didn't push their starters deep into games, so Karns went seven innings only three times, but he also gave up two runs or fewer in 20 of his 26 starts.

In the end, I see two solid but flawed players, neither likely to break out into a star but useful regulars. Karns is the little bigger risk because of health issues in his past and the concern his control suddenly regresses again (plus, Tampa Bay pitching coach Jim Hickey is considered one of the best in the business).

The other guys are mostly filler. Morrison is no longer an adequate starting first baseman, with an OPS+ of under 100 in three of the past four seasons. Farquhar is an undersized righty who had a very good 2014 (like the rest of the Seattle bullpen) and a very bad 2015 (like the rest of the Seattle bullpen). He has a decent arm and is the kind of reliever the Rays like to take chances on.

Riefenhauser is a lefty with LOOGY stuff who has put up good numbers in the minors but has been roughed up in 20 major league innings. Powell is sort of an interesting guy, and not just for the blasphemous name -- there can, after all, be only one Boog Powell, even if this Boog got the nickname because the original was his grandfather's favorite player.

A 20th-round pick by the A's in 2012 out of junior college, he had a 50-game amphetamine suspension in 2014 but reached Triple-A last year with Tampa at age 22 on the strength of his hit tool, speed and on-base skills. He has little power, with only six career home runs in the minors in more than 1,000 at-bats, but he hit .295/.385/.392 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015. His chance to become a regular -- the Mariners need a center fielder -- will depend on his defense and ability to keep hitting for a high average. I do wonder how fast he really is, however, as he has been a poor percentage base stealer in the minors (18-for-32 in 2015). So while he draws comparisons to Billy Burns of the A's, he looks more like a fourth outfielder to me.

Anyway, a fun trade to kick off the offseason. We don't usually see these kinds of deals much anymore, so kudos to Jerry Dipoto and Matt Silverman for one that seems to make sense for both clubs.
 

Carp

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
15,127
I am slowly building my list of players I would like the Mets to go after in FA:

OF Ryan Raburn
RP Shawn Kelly
RP Mark Lowe
SS Asdrubel Cabrera
OF Austin Jackson
OF/INF Sean Rodriguez
IF Mike Aviles
 

Rev

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
19,327
You keep your hands off Ryan Raburn and Mark Lowe.
 
D

Deuce

Guest
The trade: The Seattle Mariners trade shortstop/outfielder Brad Miller, first baseman Logan Morrison and right-hander Danny Farquhar to the Tampa Bay Rays for right-hander Nathan Karns, left-hander C.J. Riefenhauser and minor league outfielder Boog Powell.

This looks like a good old-fashioned challenge trade, two teams dealing from a relative position of strength to fill obvious holes: The Rays need a shortstop with Asdrubal Cabrera hitting free agency, and the Mariners need to improve a rotation that finished ninth in the American League in ERA and has Hisashi Iwakuma as a free agent.

Miller is a guy I've always liked, a good athlete with some power and speed. His problem was on defense, where he'd boot routine plays, usually with bad throws. The Mariners finally gave up on him as a shortstop when they promoted Ketel Marte late in the season and tried him in the outfield, continuing a bad Mariners experiment of moving middle infielders to the outfield (Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin).

Here's the thing: Miller didn't look good in the field -- he was never smooth, and sort of flings the ball sidearm to first base -- but his defensive metrics weren't horrible there. In 2014, he rated at minus-3 Defensive Runs and in 2015 he rated at 4 runs below average. Over those years, Ultimate Zone Rating has him at plus-1.6 runs per 150 games, about on par with Jhonny Peralta and Erick Aybar, and nobody is moving those guys off shortstop.

As a Mariners fan who watched quite a bit of Miller, I can see why the Mariners dealt him. His errors also seemed to come at crucial moments, and ninth-inning errors lost a couple of games for the team. But his arm is pretty strong, and strong-armed shortstops are often underrated. The Rays are buying into the metrics more than the eye test; considering this is a team that has historically valued defense, Tampa Bay must be confident he can at least be average-ish at shortstop.

Miller hit .258/.329/.402 in 2015, a line that shoots up to .266/.350/.453 against right-handers. That's well above-average production for a shortstop. Trouble is, he hit .234/.264/.252 against southpaws, with only two doubles and no home runs in 111 at-bats, after hitting .170 against lefties in 2014. So there's some strong evidence that the lefty-hitting Miller needs a platoon partner, maybe Tim Beckham, who slugged .462 against lefties in 2015 and started 22 games at shortstop.

Karns went 7-5 with a 3.67 ERA in 26 starts as a rookie. He's not young, however, as he'll be entering his age-28 season, having begun his pro career late because of a torn labrum suffered in college and then battled control issues in the minors. With Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and former Mariner Erasmo Ramirez fronting the rotation, plus, one hopes, full seasons from Drew Smyly and Matt Moore and the possible return of Alex Cobb, the Rays had depth to deal. Karns throws a four-seam fastball up in the zone that isn't overpowering (average velocity 91.8 mph), and also throws a curveball and changeup. Scouts consider the curve his best pitch, and batters hit only .170 against it in 2015.

Karns averaged 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings with the Rays in 2015 and 10.3 per nine in his minor league career, so he always has been able to put away batters. The Rays didn't push their starters deep into games, so Karns went seven innings only three times, but he also gave up two runs or fewer in 20 of his 26 starts.

In the end, I see two solid but flawed players, neither likely to break out into a star but useful regulars. Karns is the little bigger risk because of health issues in his past and the concern his control suddenly regresses again (plus, Tampa Bay pitching coach Jim Hickey is considered one of the best in the business).

The other guys are mostly filler. Morrison is no longer an adequate starting first baseman, with an OPS+ of under 100 in three of the past four seasons. Farquhar is an undersized righty who had a very good 2014 (like the rest of the Seattle bullpen) and a very bad 2015 (like the rest of the Seattle bullpen). He has a decent arm and is the kind of reliever the Rays like to take chances on.

Riefenhauser is a lefty with LOOGY stuff who has put up good numbers in the minors but has been roughed up in 20 major league innings. Powell is sort of an interesting guy, and not just for the blasphemous name -- there can, after all, be only one Boog Powell, even if this Boog got the nickname because the original was his grandfather's favorite player.

A 20th-round pick by the A's in 2012 out of junior college, he had a 50-game amphetamine suspension in 2014 but reached Triple-A last year with Tampa at age 22 on the strength of his hit tool, speed and on-base skills. He has little power, with only six career home runs in the minors in more than 1,000 at-bats, but he hit .295/.385/.392 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015. His chance to become a regular -- the Mariners need a center fielder -- will depend on his defense and ability to keep hitting for a high average. I do wonder how fast he really is, however, as he has been a poor percentage base stealer in the minors (18-for-32 in 2015). So while he draws comparisons to Billy Burns of the A's, he looks more like a fourth outfielder to me.

Anyway, a fun trade to kick off the offseason. We don't usually see these kinds of deals much anymore, so kudos to Jerry Dipoto and Matt Silverman for one that seems to make sense for both clubs.
Very nice. Karns is the odd man out in the rotation assuming everyone is healthy and packaging him with average assets for guys who will contribute is a plus.
 

Carp

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
15,127
Very nice. Karns is the odd man out in the rotation assuming everyone is healthy and packaging him with average assets for guys who will contribute is a plus.
Just seems like they are shuffling turds around.
 
D

Deuce

Guest
Just seems like they are shuffling turds around.
That's what Tampa does. Guys who are full time turds elsewhere get platooned with us to help them be a little more successful. Miller will split time with Beckham, Morrison will split time at DH with someone else.

I will ill say that I don't think Rofenhauser is a turd, though. He gave some quality innings after his call up when the rest of the pen was burned out.
 

Carp

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
15,127
2015-16 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions
By Tim Dierkes | November 6, 2015 at 11:42pm CST

Just in time for the tenth anniversary of MLB Trade Rumors, our Top 50 Free Agents list has arrived! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our free agent tracker here.

This year, I asked MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, Mark Polishuk, Charlie Wilmoth, Zach Links, and Brad Johnson to send me their picks so I could compare to my own. Discussions with the MLBTR writing team, especially Steve and Jeff, helped inform the predictions found below. Each player’s team was picked in a vacuum, so we’re not predicting the Nationals will sign both Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra. Additionally, we’ve added our contract predictions to the mix. We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Still, the contract predictions give a more clear criteria, as players are ranked by earning power. Without further ado, we’re proud to present MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents!


1. David Price – Cubs. Seven years, $217MM. Price is a true number one starter in his prime. The 30-year-old southpaw posted a 2.45 ERA in 220 1/3 innings for the Tigers and Blue Jays, and is ineligible for a qualifying offer due to a July trade. Price is a five-time All-Star and the 2012 Cy Young winner, and he’s got a shot at the award again this year. Even in a free agent market flush with unprecedented starting pitching, Price is the cream of the crop and should command a record deal. Clayton Kershaw‘s seven-year, $215MM extension signed in January 2014 should be his target. The Cubs are the early favorite, as they are known to be seeking an impact starting pitcher and Joe Maddon managed Price with the Rays. The Blue Jays will attempt to bring Price back, while the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Giants figure to be among those in the mix.

2. Jason Heyward – Yankees. Ten years, $200MM. Since his 2010 rookie season, Heyward has quietly been one of the game’s best outfielders. He’s an excellent defender and baserunner with a solid on-base percentage and some pop. Heyward hit a career-high 27 home runs in 2012, but only 38 in the three seasons since. He doesn’t have the typical power output of a $200MM player, but his all-around game makes him a sabermetric darling with six wins above replacement this year. A very long term and an opt-out clause are on the table for Heyward because he broke into the Majors at age 20, and is now just 26. The Cardinals will try to convince Heyward to stay, but teams like the Angels, Yankees, White Sox, and Astros could make a play. For more on Heyward, click here.

3. Zack Greinke – Dodgers. Six years, $156MM. Greinke is a contender for the NL Cy Young Award after leading all of baseball with a 1.66 ERA in 222 2/3 innings. He’s been an elite starting pitcher since winning the AL award with the 2009 Royals, and has already earned over $100MM in his career. Greinke’s 2012 free agent deal with the Dodgers included a clause allowing him to opt out of the $71MM remaining over the final three seasons, and he’s done just that in search of a guarantee of more than twice that much. Since Greinke recently turned 32, a six-year deal may be out of some teams’ comfort zone. It’s possible he’ll get into the $150MM range even on a five-year term, however. His market should be similar to that of Price, but the 22 month age difference will keep Greinke from matching his contract.

4. Justin Upton – Nationals. Seven years, $147MM. Drafted first overall by the Diamondbacks a decade ago, Upton hasn’t quite reached the lofty expectations placed on him. He’s still a solid source of right-handed power, with 82 home runs over the last three seasons. Upton turned 28 in August, so there’s room to grow. Even if he doesn’t, he could still provide decent value at a contract similar to the one Jacoby Ellsbury signed two years ago with the Yankees. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was Arizona’s scouting director when they drafted Upton, and there could be a fit if the team is willing to move Bryce Harper to center field. The Yankees, Angels, Rangers, and Giants are other potential matches. Click here for our full profile on Upton.

5. Chris Davis – Cardinals. Six years, $144MM. Davis is baseball’s most prolific home run hitter, leading the Majors in 2013 and 2015. He’s a middle of the order monster and he doesn’t turn 30 until March. Agent Scott Boras will attempt to downplay Davis’ high strikeout rate and his 2014 suspension for use of Adderall. Boras will push for seven years for Davis, a term he achieved with Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo previously. First base is not an in-demand position this winter, so finding a match for Davis is difficult. He would be a great addition to the Cardinals’ lineup if they lose Heyward. The Orioles will stay involved, while the Astros, Mariners, and Padres make some degree of sense. Click here for more on Davis.

6. Yoenis Cespedes – Angels. Six years, $140MM. Cespedes, 30, vaulted up the free agent ranks after bashing 25 home runs in the season’s final three months. Signed by the Athletics for $36MM as a free agent out of Cuba, Cespedes’ choice to limit that contract to four years has paid off. He’s ineligible for a qualifying offer, and seems unlikely to return to the Mets. The Angels are one possibility for Cespedes, though they would prefer a left-handed masher. The Astros, Giants, Mariners, White Sox, Rangers, and Yankees could get in the mix, but this one’s tough to predict.

7. Jordan Zimmermann – Blue Jays. Six years, $126MM. Zimmermann could become the first Tommy John survivor to score a $100MM contract. He has a 3.13 ERA over 810 1/3 innings over the last four seasons, but slipped a bit in 2015 and doesn’t boast the strikeout rate of other top arms. Since Zimmermann won’t turn 30 until May, a six-year term is attainable. The Blue Jays need arms, and executive Dana Brown was the Nationals’ scouting director when Zimmermann was drafted in ’07. The Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Tigers are other good matches. Click here for more on Zimmermann.

8. Johnny Cueto – Red Sox. Five years, $115MM. Cueto served as the Reds’ ace for many years until the Royals acquired him in July, removing his qualifying offer eligibility. Prior to the trade, he went two weeks between starts due to an elbow issue, but avoided the DL. Cueto was not the dominant force the Royals expected, as he posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 regular season starts and pitched poorly in two of his four postseason outings. The righty capped his season with a complete game to take Game 2 of the World Series. Cueto’s performance since August may have knocked down his free agent value, leaving teams wary of guaranteeing a sixth year. He could still be the ace the Red Sox are seeking, as predicted by five of seven MLBTR writers, or clubs such as the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Astros, or Blue Jays could win the bidding.

9. Alex Gordon – Royals. Five years, $105MM. Gordon was drafted second overall by the Royals in 2005, one pick after Upton. He has become one of the game’s best left fielders, combining elite defense with excellent on-base skills and decent pop. Gordon’s left-handed bat would look great in a lot of lineups, but most MLBTR writers expect him to remain in Kansas City. How far will the World Champion Royals push the hometown discount? We feel Gordon’s earning power is around $100MM, so it’s hard to picture him accepting something below $75MM.

10. Ian Desmond – Mets. Five years, $80MM. Perhaps the game’s best shortstop from 2012-14, Desmond slumped to a .233/.290/.384 batting line in 2015. He still hit 19 home runs, and is easily the best available at his position. Three MLBTR writers feel the Mets will sign their longtime Nationals adversary, while the Padres and White Sox also got mentions. Desmond will come with a qualifying offer attached.

11. Jeff Samardzija – Giants. Five years, $80MM. After posting a 2.99 ERA in 2014, Samardzija seemed like another potential member of the $100MM club. Instead, he struggled with the White Sox in 2015, leading MLB in hits and earned runs allowed. Executives to whom we’ve spoken still like him the most out of the second tier starters, and think he’ll bounce back from this year’s 4.96 ERA. Shark had an unconventional path to the Majors, serving as a wide receiver at Notre Dame and pitching mostly as a reliever until 2012. That has kept his mileage down relative to someone like Yovani Gallardo, who is a year younger but has thrown nearly 27% more career innings. The Yankees are known to like Samardzija, but the Giants, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Astros are just a few others who could get involved.

12. Mike Leake – Giants. Five years, $80MM. Leake is younger than his free agent peers, as he doesn’t turn 28 until next week. The Reds drafted him in the first round in 2009 and put him straight into the Majors in 2010. Leake profiles as a sub-4.00 ERA, mid-rotation arm, and he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer due to his trade to the Giants. His age puts five years on the table. The Giants generally retain their guys and are the prohibitive favorite, though the Diamondbacks are known to like him. To read our full profile on Leake, click here.

13. Wei-Yin Chen – Tigers. Five years, $80MM. Chen, a native of Taiwan, was signed by the Orioles out of Japan in 2012. Though he’s been prone to the longball, the lefty has posted a 3.44 ERA in 377 innings over the last two seasons. Boras figures to position him as a cut above the typical mid-rotation arms, pushing for a fifth year despite a qualifying offer. In need of multiple arms, the Boras-friendly Tigers could be a match.

14. Kenta Maeda – Diamondbacks. $20MM posting fee plus five year, $60MM contract. Maeda, 28 in April, recently finished his eighth season with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp. After he put up a 2.09 ERA in 206 1/3 innings, the Carp may decide to post Maeda. The posting system established in 2013 caps the posting fee at $20MM, allowing all teams that tie for the highest posting bid to negotiate with the player for 30 days. Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart admitted a year ago he loves Maeda, so Arizona is a strong contender.

15. Matt Wieters – Nationals. Four years, $64MM. Another former first-round draft pick, the switch-hitting Wieters has an above average bat for a catcher and little competition on the market at his position. As with Upton, there’s a feeling Wieters hasn’t lived up to expectations, but he’s still a quality player. His contract will be depressed by last year’s Tommy John surgery, which delayed his 2015 debut until June and prevented him from catching on consecutive days regularly. We expect him to turn down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, and the Nationals could sign Wieters as an upgrade over Wilson Ramos. The Braves make sense with Wieters’ strong Georgia ties, while the Angels, Astros, and White Sox could be fits. Click here for our full profile of Wieters.

16. Dexter Fowler – Mets. Four years, $60MM. Fowler, 30 in March, joined the Cubs from the Astros in a January trade. He did a fine job as the Cubs’ center fielder, playing in a career-high 156 regular season games and quieting concerns about his 2014 defensive metrics. The switch-hitter posted his standard solid OBP and a career-best 17 home runs, so he’ll be turning down the Cubs’ qualifying offer in search of a multiyear deal. A return to the Cubs makes sense, but if they decide to move on, the Mets, Nationals, Angels, Marlins, and White Sox are some decent matches. Teams like the Mariners and Rangers may seek help in center field, but may be reluctant to forfeit their first-round draft pick.

17. Daniel Murphy – Angels. Four years, $56MM. Murphy, 31 in April, has long served as a solid second baseman for the Mets. He had the best contact rate in baseball among qualified hitters this year and can also handle third base. He’s a below average defensive second baseman. After hitting a career-high 14 home runs in the regular season, Murphy smashed seven more in the span of seven postseason games against the Dodgers and Cubs. His bat quieted in the World Series, and he also committed a costly error in Game 4. The idea that 14 postseason games had his free agent value swinging $20MM in either direction was always nonsense, as a qualifying offer and a contract in the range of Chase Headley‘s four-year, $52MM pact made sense for Murphy before the postseason narratives set in. The Angels and Yankees are the favorites among MLBTR writers, with the White Sox also getting a mention.

18. Scott Kazmir – Orioles. Four years, $52MM. Kazmir put up an excellent 3.10 ERA in 183 innings this year for the Athletics and Astros. Though he was either struggling or out of the Majors from 2009-12, Kazmir has re-established himself over the last three seasons. The southpaw, who is ineligible for a qualifying offer, has a case for a four-year deal. I don’t completely subscribe to the narrative, but Kazmir will have to contend with the impression that he fades down the stretch. The Orioles, perhaps seeking a more affordable southpaw to replace Wei-Yin Chen, could pursue Kazmir. The Tigers, Blue Jays, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, and Royals are other possibilities.

19. Ian Kennedy – Angels. Four years, $52MM. Kennedy had a 4.28 ERA for the Padres but seemed deserving of better. He will deal with the drag of a qualifying offer, but several teams will gravitate toward a pitcher with a 9.3 K/9 over the last two seasons. Kennedy’s biggest issue is home runs; no one posted a higher rate per nine innings this year. The Angels, Giants, Astros, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Orioles are potential suitors.

20. Yovani Gallardo – Tigers. Four years, $52MM. Gallardo, 30 in February, spent his career with the Brewers before a January trade to the Rangers. Once one of the NL’s better pitchers, Gallardo has settled in as a mid-rotation arm. His peripheral stats this year suggest he was fortunate to manage a 3.42 ERA, and his qualifying offer could hamper his market. The Tigers could work, as a team seeking multiple starters with a protected first-rounder.

21. Ben Zobrist – Yankees. Three years, $51MM. Baseball’s Swiss Army knife would fit with more than a dozen teams, as he can handle second base and the outfield corners and even back up at shortstop. Offensively, Zobrist contributes a strong OBP and good pop, plus he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer because he was traded to the Royals. He’ll be vying for a fourth year, and Victor Martinez did get that, but with Zobrist turning 35 in May it’s still a tough sell. He remains a good fit for the Royals, while the Yankees, Orioles, Padres, Astros, and White Sox could also make sense.

22. Howie Kendrick – White Sox. Four years, $50MM. Kendrick presents an alternative to Murphy, from the right side of the plate. He remains an above-average hitter and is considered a competent second baseman. After nine seasons with the Angels, Kendrick was traded to the Dodgers last December. The 32-year-old will likely seek a four-year deal, which may cause a few suitors to back away. The White Sox have a protected first-round pick and could stabilize second base with Kendrick. The Yankees, Royals, Angels, and Mets are other possibilities.

23. Byung-ho Park – Rockies. $10MM posting fee plus five-year, $40MM contract. Park, a 29-year-old first baseman from the Korea Baseball Organization, was posted by the Nexen Heroes this week. In the wake of the Pirates’ success with Jung-ho Kang, Park’s price tag should exceed that $16MM expenditure. Park had big home run numbers but played in a very homer-friendly league. We may learn next week which MLB team won the posting bidding and if the Heroes will accept it, making this an easier pick for our free agent prediction contest. The Rockies, Orioles, Cardinals, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Padres, Phillies, and Pirates are potential matches.

24. John Lackey – Cubs. Three years, $50MM. Lackey had a fantastic year for the Cardinals, with a 2.77 ERA in 218 innings. His base salary was the league minimum due to an injury-related clause he agreed to upon signing with Theo Epstein’s Red Sox in 2009, but the Cards added $2MM in performance bonuses. After that bargain, the Cardinals made the $15.8MM qualifying offer, and Lackey is expected to turn it down in search of a multiyear deal. He recently turned 37, so some suitors could be wary of a three-year deal. The Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Astros, Royals, Giants, Tigers, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers, Twins, and Yankees could all be part of his robust market.

25. Hisashi Iwakuma – Mariners. Three years, $45MM. Iwakuma’s run of success continued with the Mariners, as he posted a 3.54 ERA in 20 starts and pitched a no-hitter. He missed more than two months with a lat strain, however, and turns 35 in April. He’ll contend with a qualifying offer if he reaches the open market, but interest in a new deal with Seattle is mutual. Iwakuma’s market would resemble that of Lackey.

26. Colby Rasmus – Padres. Three years, $39MM. Rasmus, a 29-year-old former first-round draft pick, hit a career-high 25 home runs for the Astros this year. He added four more in nine postseason games. Rasmus can play all three outfield positions, too. One of four 2005 first-round draft picks on this list, Rasmus had trouble meshing with the Cardinals and Blue Jays clubhouses but found comfort in Houston. The Astros made him a qualifying offer, however, and the prospect of forfeiting a draft pick will give some teams pause.

27. Denard Span – Cubs. Three years, $39MM. Span, 32 in February, hit .292/.345/.404 in his three seasons with the Nationals. His center field defense rated as below average for the last two years, however. Span had hip surgery on September 1st and will spend most of the offseason recovering, potentially depressing his price tag. To the great benefit of his market, Span did not receive a qualifying offer from the Nationals. The Cubs are a good fit for Span, though it’s easier to picture a team like the Mariners coming into play since they have the first unprotected pick in the draft.

28. Brett Anderson – Dodgers. Three years, $39MM. Anderson is another interesting southpaw, although his market will be hampered by a qualifying offer from the Dodgers. Anderson is young for a free agent, as he doesn’t turn 28 until February. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he led all qualified starters with a 66.3% groundball rate this year. He set a career high with 180 1/3 regular season innings with the Dodgers, after injuries limited him to 206 1/3 over the previous four seasons. Anderson’s injury history likely takes a four-year deal off the table unless the average annual value is greatly reduced. The Dodgers may retain him, especially since his leverage is reduced by their qualifying offer. Otherwise his market should resemble that of Kazmir.

29. Marco Estrada – Athletics. Three years, $30MM. Estrada looked like a non-tender candidate for the Brewers a year ago, who traded him to the Blue Jays for Adam Lind. He didn’t even join Toronto’s rotation until May 5th, but he went on to post a 3.28 ERA in 28 starts. He also raised his profile with two excellent postseason starts in three tries. The 32-year-old soft-tosser received a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays — an offer of a one-year, $15.8MM contract upon which he must decide in the next seven days. Estrada has earned $10MM in his career, so accepting the offer has to be a serious consideration. Still, Estrada would surely prefer the security of a multiyear deal, and has a good chance of finding a three-year contract even with the draft pick cost. The qualifying offer gives the Blue Jays leverage over the next week, so it’s possible he’ll strike a multiyear deal with them to remain in Toronto.

30. J.A. Happ – Royals. Three years, $30MM. Happ, a 33-year-old southpaw, posted a 4.64 ERA in 108 2/3 innings for the Mariners but a 1.85 mark in 63 1/3 for the Pirates. Assuming teams feel some of that success can be replicated outside of Pittsburgh, Happ will be a popular mid-range free agent target, as he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer and probably won’t expect a four-year deal. The Pirates will attempt to retain him, while the Royals, Orioles, Padres, Angels, Giants, Tigers, A’s, Dodgers, and Marlins also make sense.

31. David Freese – White Sox. Three years, $30MM. Freese is a decent third baseman in a market bereft of them. 33 in April, he hit .260/.328/.394 over the last three years and plays average defense. The Halos chose not to risk the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to Freese. That’s a big plus for his free agency and probably makes a third year possible. He could return to the Angels, while the White Sox and Indians also make sense.

32. Gerardo Parra – Nationals. Three years, $27MM. Parra was a hot commodity on the July trade market after hitting well beyond his norm for 100 games with the Brewers. The Orioles acquired him, and he tanked in the remaining 55 games. Still, Parra doesn’t turn 29 until May, he plays all three outfield positions, and he’s not eligible for a qualifying offer. Parra’s struggles against left-handed pitching prevent him from being a regular, but he’ll be a popular free agent as something between a regular and a fourth outfielder. There’s a Mike Rizzo connection since Parra came up with the D’Backs, while the White Sox, Mets, and Padres could also work.

33. Darren O’Day – Red Sox. Three years, $22.5MM. O’Day may be the best reliever on the free agent market. The sidearmer compiled a 1.92 ERA in 263 innings over four seasons with the Orioles. He has at times struggled with walks and home runs against left-handed hitters, but he doesn’t have to be used as a righty specialist. Though he recently turned 33, a three-year deal is in order. If the Orioles elect not to pay the price, the Red Sox, Tigers, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Mets are just a few potential suitors.

34. Joakim Soria – Tigers. Three years, $18MM. Soria, the former dominant Royals closer, is fully back to form after April 2012 Tommy John surgery. He became the Tigers’ closer after Joe Nathan went down with an elbow injury, and was traded to the Pirates in July. A healthy three-year deal is in order for Soria, who turns 32 in May. His market will be similar to that of O’Day, perhaps with a boost for some teams due to his closing experience.

35. Austin Jackson – Rockies. One year, $12MM. Jackson looked like a potential star after a breakout 2012 season with the Tigers. However, his offense declined and he was traded to the Mariners at the 2014 trade deadline. Seattle sent him to the Cubs this year at the August deadline. Jackson doesn’t turn 29 until February, and he plays a capable center field. There’s a good chance he can still pass as a two-win center fielder. A Boras client, Jackson could attempt to maximize his earnings now on multiyear deal, or rebuild value on a one-year pact. A return to the Cubs makes sense, while the Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers, Braves, Reds, White Sox, and Indians could also be fits.

36. Tyler Clippard – Braves. Three years, $18MM. Clippard’s strikeout and walk rates moved in the wrong direction this year, but he still compiled a 2.92 ERA in 71 innings for the Athletics and Mets. He’s a two-time All-Star who has succeeded in a setup and occasional closer role since 2009. His history of success should be enough for a three-year deal.

37. Asdrubal Cabrera – White Sox. Two years, $18MM. The Rays signed Cabrera to a one-year, $7.5MM deal in January. His longstanding record as a below-average defensive shortstop held true, but he showed some pop with 15 home runs and overall was a net positive. Some teams might prefer him at second base, where he played for the Nationals last year. The Padres or White Sox could plug him in as a stopgap at either position.

38. Mat Latos – Pirates. One year, $12MM. A few years ago, Latos seemed in line for a monster free agent deal upon hitting the market at age 28. Then bone spurs in his elbow late in 2013 led to surgery, followed by knee surgery prior to 2014 spring training, and then a flexor mass strain in his elbow. His 2014 season debut was pushed to mid-June. He had a stem cell elbow procedure in November 2014, and then the Reds traded him to the Marlins. He battled minor injuries but showed promise in his 16 starts with the Marlins this year and then joined the Dodgers via trade. Latos struggled in six outings for the Dodgers and earned his release, hooking on with the Angels in late September to make a few relief appearances. Latos will probably go for a one-year deal to rebuild value, and the Pirates have a knack for getting pitchers back on track. As one of only a couple of interesting one-year deal arms, Latos should be popular.

39. Doug Fister – Astros. One year, $10MM. Fister is the other popular one-year deal target, as he served as a dependable starting pitcher until this year. With his strikeout and groundball rates declining, and his fastball down to around 86 miles per hour, he doesn’t have the upside of Latos.

40. Mike Pelfrey – Royals. Two years, $15MM. Pelfrey isn’t the most exciting free agent starter, but the righty did make 30 starts for the Twins this year with the game’s eighth best home run prevention rate. Teams like the Royals, Tigers, and Phillies could entertain him for the back end of the rotation.

41. Antonio Bastardo – Mariners. Three years, $15MM. Bastardo profiles as the best lefty reliever on the free agent market after a 2.98 ERA in 57 1/3 innings for the Pirates. The 30-year-old does have control problems, however. The Mariners, Twins, and Cardinals are a few potential matches.

42. Ryan Madson – Twins. Three years, $15MM. Madson, 35, signed a minor league deal with the Royals in January. He hadn’t pitched in the Majors since 2011. With a 2.13 ERA and strong peripherals in 63 1/3 big league innings, Madson proved he’s all the way back as a top setup option. Suitors will prefer a two-year deal due to Madson’s age and history, but a third year might win the bid.


43. Steve Pearce – Rangers. Two years, $14MM. Pearce smashed 21 home runs in 383 plate appearances for the Orioles in 2014, but couldn’t replicate his success in his contract year. He could fill a lefty-mashing left field/first base role for the Rangers.

44. Shawn Kelley – Diamondbacks. Two years, $12MM. Kelley has a shot at a three-year deal, after he posted a 2.45 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 in 51 1/3 innings for the Padres this year. He’ll be appealing to a long list of teams seeking to augment the bullpen.

45. John Jaso – Orioles. Two years, $12MM. Jaso spent most of the season as the Rays’ designated hitter, and figures to remain in the American League. A wrist injury knocked him out for three months this year. The 32-year-old hit .278/.368/.439 against right-handed pitching over the last three years, but generally shouldn’t face lefties.

46. Chris B. Young – Yankees. Two years, $12MM. Young is a lefty-masher who can play all three outfield positions. If the Yankees don’t bring him back, the Rangers could be a fit.

47. Tony Sipp – Astros. Three years, $12MM. Sipp, one of the top lefty relievers on the market, revived his career by joining the Astros in 2014. He seems inclined to stay in Houston, though he may be popular enough to net a three-year offer.

48. Justin Morneau – Orioles. One year, $8MM. After winning a batting title with the Rockies last year, Morneau played in just 49 games in 2015 due to a strained neck and concussion symptoms. A move back to the American League makes sense.

49. Alexei Ramirez – Padres. One year, $7.5MM. Ramirez’s $10MM option was a borderline call for the White Sox, but they ultimately chose the $1MM buyout. The 34-year-old struggled mightily in the season’s first three months, but hit a respectable .282/.329/.426 in the second half. His defense might be a little below average at this point, but teams seeking a shortstop can’t be too picky.

50. Rich Hill – Phillies. One year, $5MM. Hill, 36 in March, rose from the ashes to twirl four brilliant starts for the Red Sox in September and October. He’s a southpaw with a huge curveball and career-long control issues. His last run of success as a starter came in 2007, but I like using the last spot on this list for a wild card.
 

Carp

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
15,127
I'd love Desmond and Fowler...shift Flores to 2B...not a bad line up. Still lacking that thumper we had with Cespedes, but adding Fowler would allow Granderson to move down in the order.
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
37,474
In what universe is Jason Hayward a 200 million dollar player? That's retarded.
 

Rev

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
19,327
He has the Rangers taking a Napoli- lite. Would rather just have Napoli.
 

Rev

Good, bad, I'm the guy with the gun
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
19,327
He can play 1B, 2B, or OF though...position flexibility is a big plus.
Would rather spend the money on a better player. Its pretty much going to come down to either him or Napoli I would imagine.
 

Carp

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
15,127
One thing the Mets will have to improve on is the bullpen. Clippard can go...I like Reed, but we need some power arms back there. Not much in FA...I do like Shawn Kelly. Would love to just have power arms out there like the Royals have.
 
Top Bottom