Ex-NFL exec: Cowboys shouldn't hesitate to draft a QB in first round

Ex-NFL exec: Cowboys shouldn't hesitate to draft a QB in first round
Published: 30 September 2015 09:30 PM
Updated: 01 October 2015 12:08 AM

The Dallas Cowboys, like a number of other NFL teams, are playing with fire in terms of their quarterback situation.

That is the opinion of Jeff Diamond, a former team president of the Tennessee Titans and general manager for the Minnesota Vikings. In a story in The Sporting News, Diamond says contending teams like the Cowboys, who count on an aging starting quarterback without an early round talent as a backup in case of injury, put their seasons at risk.

Diamond writes: Just three games into the 2015 season, we're seeing how critical it is for teams to have a solid No. 2 QB as Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Jay Cutler and Ben Roethlisberger have already missed playing time due to injury. Their replacements have generally not fared well.

I believe it's particularly important for a team to have a good future quarterback in waiting when you have an older starting quarterback such as Brees, Romo, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady -- all of whom are north of 35-years-old with Manning (39) and Brady (38) pushing 40.

The Cowboys are really rolling the dice that they will find a quality quarterback to eventually replace Romo, and it's highly doubtful that it will be Weeden, who has now lost his last nine starts going back to his Cleveland days. The Cowboys who have no highly drafted young QB in the pipeline to replace Romo, who could pack it in anytime considering his back problems and now a broken clavicle.

There are plenty of first-round QB busts, but the odds are still better for a first-rounder than picking a QB in other rounds.

So memo to NFL GMs: You'd better draft a big-time QB soon if you think you have a good team without a top quarterback. Or if you have a team with an older starting quarterback and you're not sold on the heir apparent, you also better plan accordingly and be prepared to take a quarterback in the first round if a good one is there when you pick. It will give you the best chance to replace a top quarterback with a future star.

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It's time we all started this conversation. Actually, it's kinda late, but...

Since when has a Jerry Jones regime ever been proactive with the QB position? We have always ride the arm until it falls off and it's too late.

Rev said:

Since when has a Jerry Jones regime ever been proactive with the QB position? We have always ride the arm until it falls off and it's too late.

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Young son gets his opportunity to cement his position with the organization with a successor QB selection, let's hope he gets it right FFS. I still smart from Quinthy. And Chutch. And Henson....

Lord, not again. Please.

There's no chance after Romo. The fact that our dumb asses still have Wilson as QB coach points to another long drought.

townsend said:

There's no chance after Romo. The fact that our dumb asses still have Wilson as QB coach points to another long drought.

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Is he still here? I hoped he might simply fade away unnoticed, like this guy:

I honestly think that Stephen really calling the shots has led to many smart decisions...in the past we would have given Murray truckloads of money and completely fucked up our cap for the future. The emphasis on building the OL...we did not do that in the past either. A strong OL bodes well for a young QB coming in.

This is not a strong set of QB prospects though...I really like Hogan and Kessel, but outside of Goff and Cook there are no first round prospects IMO.

Carp said:

I honestly think that Stephen really calling the shots has led to many smart decisions...in the past we would have given Murray truckloads of money and completely fucked up our cap for the future. The emphasis on building the OL...we did not do that in the past either. A strong OL bodes well for a young QB coming in.

This is not a strong set of QB prospects though...I really like Hogan and Kessel, but outside of Goff and Cook there are no first round prospects IMO.

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We should be in prime position to snag a strong prospect.

Rev said:

Since when has a Jerry Jones regime ever been proactive with the QB position? We have always ride the arm until it falls off and it's too late.

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If we go 2-7 or worse without Romo (Meaning Romo misses more then 7 games) and this season ends with us having a high draft pick it absolutely would be a great idea to take a QB. It wouldn't be all that different then the Colts did when Manning got hurt, they had a stinker of a season and took advantage by drafting his replacement.

I love Romo but he just takes such a beating. It's not the offensive lines fault but it's just the nature of Romo. He is going to hold onto the ball as long as possible and attempt to keep plays alive. Beyond that he just doesn't appear to have a frame capable of taking that type of beating. I'd have absolutely no problem drafting a guy like Connor Cook, letting him backup for a year and then moving on from Romo.

Cowboysrock55 said:

If we go 2-7 or worse without Romo (Meaning Romo misses more then 7 games) and this season ends with us having a high draft pick it absolutely would be a great idea to take a QB. It wouldn't be all that different then the Colts did when Manning got hurt, they had a stinker of a season and took advantage by drafting his replacement.

I love Romo but he just takes such a beating. It's not the offensive lines fault but it's just the nature of Romo. He is going to hold onto the ball as long as possible and attempt to keep plays alive. Beyond that he just doesn't appear to have a frame capable of taking that type of beating. I'd have absolutely no problem drafting a guy like Connor Cook, letting him backup for a year and then moving on from Romo.

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Theres a big difference when drafting 1st overall and you have agenerational QB prospect sitting there than drafting in the top 15 and every QB in the draft has question marks.

This is nothing like the Colts situation, do you draft Cook with a higher rated prospect there just because?

I have no issue taking a QB in the 1st in theory but I am not drafting a marginal prospect when there are higher rated prospects.

Jiggyfly said:

Theres a big difference when drafting 1st overall and you have agenerational QB prospect sitting there than drafting in the top 15 and every QB in the draft has question marks.

This is nothing like the Colts situation, do you draft Cook with a higher rated prospect there just because?

I have no issue taking a QB in the 1st in theory but I am not drafting a marginal prospect when there are higher rated prospects.

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How do you compare the rating on a QB to that of another position though. I mean a good starting QB is worth way more then an elite guard for example. So if you need a QB I think it is acceptable to go for a lower rated QB prospect then a player at another position.

The key is you need to make sure you're getting a good QB. No point in deafting the next Harrington in the first round.

It takes years to develop a QB, so don't draft one until you know you have those years to commit to him.

Also if you draft a QB, it needs to be the first two rounds or don't bother unless he is passed on because he is under six feet and black.

If you draft a QB, then you must trade Romo. Get it over with. High picks must play ASAP to make the most of their rookie contracts and draft stock.

Since Dallas doesn't care about 2nd rounders you might be able to get away with Romo grooming a 2nd round pick for a year, but though the pressure to play is less the shorter contract becomes even more pressing.

For example Jimmy Garoppolo has provided negative production from 2014's 2nd round pick because he drains coaching reps and a roster spot but produces nothing.

If Brady is hurt, the Pats must find out if Garoppolo can replace Brady on the fly-- not cool for a Superbowl contender's hopes or really fair to Garoppolo. QB's need reps in real games, preseason isn't the same.

If Brady does retire in 2016 or 2017, you have a year or max two to develop Garoppolo before his contract ends-- how can your team even decide to extend a guy for millions when no one really knows what he can do? Brady might not even retire before 2018 when Garoppolo is a free agent. What then?

Cowboysrock55 said:

How do you compare the rating on a QB to that of another position though. I mean a good starting QB is worth way more then an elite guard for example. So if you need a QB I think it is acceptable to go for a lower rated QB prospect then a player at another position.

The key is you need to make sure you're getting a good QB. No point in deafting the next Harrington in the first round.

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There is no guarantee and a wider margin for error drafting a QB mid 1st than a elite guard.

You are far more likely to get a Harrington, Ponder or Manuel after the top 5 than getting a reliable starter.

Good QB's go fast even if a top 5 team does not need a QB it's very likely somebody is willing to trade up to get them.

This is a QB poor draft it is not the year to be taking a flier on a QB in the 1st IMO.

You tying up a valuable resources and then you are tied to that QB for 3 years minimum making it remote you go after a QB's in better draft classes.

ravidubey said:

It takes years to develop a QB, so don't draft one until you know you have those years to commit to him.

Also if you draft a QB, it needs to be the first two rounds or don't bother unless he is passed on because he is under six feet and black.

If you draft a QB, then you must trade Romo. Get it over with. High picks must play ASAP to make the most of their rookie contracts and draft stock.

Since Dallas doesn't care about 2nd rounders you might be able to get away with Romo grooming a 2nd round pick for a year, but though the pressure to play is less the shorter contract becomes even more pressing.

For example Jimmy Garoppolo has provided negative production from 2014's 2nd round pick because he drains coaching reps and a roster spot but produces nothing.

If Brady is hurt, the Pats must find out if Garoppolo can replace Brady on the fly-- not cool for a Superbowl contender's hopes or really fair to Garoppolo. QB's need reps in real games, preseason isn't the same.

If Brady does retire in 2016 or 2017, you have a year or max two to develop Garoppolo before his contract ends-- how can your team even decide to extend a guy for millions when no one really knows what he can do? Brady might not even retire before 2018 when Garoppolo is a free agent. What then?

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I'd say that we have such little data when it comes to developing successful QBs in this era, no method should be considered too good or too bad. (Other than repurposing failed baseball players, another great thing we've started doing since Wilson came back)

Who knows how many QBs out of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds could have made it. Who's to say that Chase Daniel, or Brian Brohm couldn't have been elite starters with the patience and guidance typically reserved for 1st round draft picks?

Would Alex Smith stayed the starter in San Fransisco for 8 years if he wasn't a #1 overall?

Jiggyfly said:

There is no guarantee and a wider margin for error drafting a QB mid 1st than a elite guard.

You are far more likely to get a Harrington, Ponder or Manuel after the top 5 than getting a reliable starter.

Good QB's go fast even if a top 5 team does not need a QB it's very likely somebody is willing to trade up to get them.

This is a QB poor draft it is not the year to be taking a flier on a QB in the 1st IMO.

You tying up a valuable resources and then you are tied to that QB for 3 years minimum making it remote you go after a QB's in better draft classes.

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What you're basically saying is you can't trust your own grade on a QB so if one is available just assume he sucks. You just can't draft that way. That's how you end up taking a TE every year, because their odds of being a bust are so much lower. If you're grade says a QB is going to be good, you trust it. The fact is a lot of first round QBs probably don't even have a first round grade from the Cowboys. You're calling them first round busts but in reality a lot of NFL teams don't even have first round grades on them. For example EJ Manuel. Do you think he was a legit first round QB? No of course not. Most NFL teams probably had a third/fourth round grade on the guy.

What I'm saying is if the team grades a QB as good. Meaning their scouts say, hey, this guy will most then likely develop into a top 15 QB in the NFL, then I draft him. When you play the draft scared you end up drafting the same position year after year and half the time those guys end up busts anyway. What are you going to do, wait until the stars align and you have the top pick in the draft with Luck/Manning looking you right in the fact?

Cowboysrock55 said:

What you're basically saying is you can't trust your own grade on a QB so if one is available just assume he sucks. You just can't draft that way. That's how you end up taking a TE every year, because their odds of being a bust are so much lower. If you're grade says a QB is going to be good, you trust it. The fact is a lot of first round QBs probably don't even have a first round grade from the Cowboys. You're calling them first round busts but in reality a lot of NFL teams don't even have first round grades on them. For example EJ Manuel. Do you think he was a legit first round QB? No of course not. Most NFL teams probably had a third/fourth round grade on the guy.

What I'm saying is if the team grades a QB as good. Meaning their scouts say, hey, this guy will most then likely develop into a top 15 QB in the NFL, then I draft him. When you play the draft scared you end up drafting the same position year after year and half the time those guys end up busts anyway. What are you going to do, wait until the stars align and you have the top pick in the draft with Luck/Manning looking you right in the fact?

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What?

I did not "basically" say any of that.

What I am saying is drafting a QB out of the top 5 is more than likely reaching and if there is a more highly rated prospect I am taking him in the 1st.

And your argument that most of those guys probably don't have 1st round grades seems to affirm that.

I am not a proponent of BPA at any cost so I don't know what that TE bullshit was all about I believe in never reaching especially at QB if there is a guy that drops and you are sold on him OK, but history tells us those mid 1st round QB's will fail more likely than not.

I believe that 2nd round is the spot to find a good QB prospect if not at the top of the draft, I would have had no issue moving up for a guy like Carr or Bridgewater who were highly rated but dropped.

There is no right way to draft a QB I just don't believe in missing out on 1st round talent for marginal QB prospects.

Jiggyfly said:

What?

I did not "basically" say any of that.

What I am saying is drafting a QB out of the top 5 is more than likely reaching and if there is a more highly rated prospect I am taking him in the 1st.

And your argument that most of those guys probably don't have 1st round grades seems to affirm that.

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So if you have a first round grade on a QB and project him to be a good NFL QB, then you would take him? Perfect, so you agree with me. You should have just said that from the start.

Your talk about QB's being too unpredictable to draft made it really hard to understand your point. If I have a shot at Ben Roethlisberger at 11 I'll take it. Even over an elite guard next year.

townsend said:

I'd say that we have such little data when it comes to developing successful QBs in this era, no method should be considered too good or too bad. (Other than repurposing failed baseball players, another great thing we've started doing since Wilson came back)

Who knows how many QBs out of the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds could have made it. Who's to say that Chase Daniel, or Brian Brohm couldn't have been elite starters with the patience and guidance typically reserved for 1st round draft picks?

Would Alex Smith stayed the starter in San Fransisco for 8 years if he wasn't a #1 overall?

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See, you've nailed the problem.

There's no way a QB can develop unless he gets reps. The reps. With the whole team in both preseason and real game conditions.

And there's no way you can commit those reps to someone you've drafted as an afterthought.

There's no way to test a QB except in live fire.

The only reason we know about Tom Brady and Kurt Warner is because Drew Bledsoe and Trent Green got injured. Neither team had playoff aspirations at the time, so they left their backup slots with young, untested players.

Tony Romo came to the Cowboys specifically because they had no QB and he might actually get a shot.

The position is unlike every other.

Cowboysrock55 said:

So if you have a first round grade on a QB and project him to be a good NFL QB, then you would take him? Perfect, so you agree with me. You should have just said that from the start.

Your talk about QB's being too unpredictable to draft made it really hard to understand your point. If I have a shot at Ben Roethlisberger at 11 I'll take it. Even over an elite guard next year.

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My point was in this draft there is not 1 Roethlisberger, so no I would not be ok taking a Conner Cook at 11 if there is a better prospect there.

The fact that there are no great or even good QB prospects in next years draft makes you Roethlisberger point pretty much moot.

What part of that did you not understand?

The point is, the Cowboys had a top-8 grade on Brady Quinn and passed on him because they had Romo. They should not make that decision again. Next time they are picking in the mid-late first and a QB with a top 10 grade rolls around, there should be zero discussion, he should be selected.

The fact that Brady Quinn ended up being a bust is irrelevant because you can't be scared of your grade and that's what Crock is saying, and he's right. Trust your scouts, if they say they have a top prospect grade, and he's available, the time is now (or passed) for the Cowboys to snag one.

Jiggyfly said:

My point was in this draft there is not 1 Roethlisberger, so no I would not be ok taking a Conner Cook at 11 if there is a better prospect there.

The fact that there are no great or even good QB prospects in next years draft makes you Roethlisberger point pretty much moot.

What part of that did you not understand?

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He's talking in theory, and his logic is correct. What you are saying is that there are no QBs you'd put an elite grade on who will be in this draft.

Seems a bit early to me to be making such statements, but yeah, if you were a Cowboys scout (~snicker~) and said there were no QBs worthy of selection, I'd listen to you.

Then again if I was picking in the 2016 draft at 22 and you told me a QB rated as the 8th best player in the draft was still available, he's my pick.

No more passing on the position because we have Romo. That time is over.