Fantasy Baseball Keeper League - Input Wanted
Figured I'd try here. Looking for some feedback from people not in my league on who I should keep in my league. Seems to be a pretty active baseball group on this board.
In an auction keeper league. Can keep 3 guys per year at the price they were drafted or acquired in free agency. Can only keep a guy for one year, so not really a dynasty league.
Auction budget is $260. Free agent budget is $100. A lot of the big name keepers from two years are coming available this year: Trout, McCutchen, Bautista, Encarnacion, Cabrera, Stanton, etc.
Here's the guys I have that are eligible to keep and their acquisition price:
Buster Posey - $21
Robinson Cano - $32
Elvis Andrus - $11
Josh Donaldson - $18
Kole Calhoun - $9
Starling Marte - $17
J.D. Martinez - $1
Jorge Soler - $1
Mookie Betts - $1
Joc Pederson - $1
Xander Bogaerts - $4
Gregory Polanco - $1
Chris Carter - $1
Manny Machado - $11
Jon Lester - $11
Marcus Stroman - $1
Sean Doolittle - $1
Hector Rondon - $1
Greg Holland - $12
Wily Peralta - $1
Kyle Hendricks - $2
Mike Fiers - $4
What is the format? Roto? Is it the tradition roto setup (ie, do you start 5 outfielders?)? That is important info when making a decision.
I don't play in any auction leagues but I have a pretty good idea of values from the resources I use for my leagues (snake draft leagues). Makes it easier to find auction value projections online since you have the standard $260 budget, so you may take a look at a site or two to get an idea of projected value.
My initial thought is that I really like Donaldson at $18. I don't knowfor sure but I am guessing he has earned more than that the past couple seasons & it is a safe bet that he will see a decent HR increase going from pitcher-friendly OAK to launching pad TOR. Seems like a lock to earn well over $20, IMO.
Starling Marte should be pretty value for that price if it is a roto league. If you start 5 OF you should consider him as he offers batting average, some power, and a lot of stolen bases. Posey is also decent value for the price (but not a huge bargain) & catcher is a very thin position. He puts up very nice numbers & plays a lot of games at 1B, saving some wear & tear.
You have some extremely intriguing $1 options. Jorge Soler at $1 is a huge steal, and I'm not just saying that as a Cubs fan. He's going to play almost every day and is projected to hit > 20 HR by most sources. He will produce way, way more than your average $1 player. JD Martinez had a nice year last year but hasn't been very good for most of his career. For $1 he would be a worthwhile keeper if you kept a lot more than 3. Betts & Polanco should also be bargains at $1 and profile similarly. A lot less power than Soler but probably better batting average and way more steals. Either would be a great $1 keeper if you want the steals over the power.
Again with the Cubs, but that is also big value on Lester this year. Only keeping 3 I would probably try to keep 3 bats, but if you're good with keeping a pitcher this is a hell of a price for Lester.
Overall I would be very tempted to keep 2 of those $1 players so you have a ton of money left to spend on the top free agents. Of the two I would pick Soler & Polanco and pair them with Donaldson. If you are risk averse and want to go with safer, more established (but also way more expensive) options in Donaldson, Posey, and Marte.
Last edited by E_D_Guapo; 02-27-2015 at 02:24 AM.
Thanks for the feedback
Roster size is 25. 5 outfield slots. It is a head to head league with the offensive categories being batting average, home runs, Ks, runs, RBIs and stolen bases
I was leaning towards Betts and Soler already. I'm a little concerned about OF depth in Boston and if Betts has a position but Farrell also said he might lead off. Bears watching
My third keeper is where I've struggled. Debated between Posey (because of position depth), Donaldson and Polanco. I think power is going to be hard to come by and I think Donaldson might have a big year in that ballpark/lineup. I love Polanco though too but I worry I get too caught up on prospects sometimes
A winning temperament
I was going to suggest Posey and Donaldson because they are top players at thin positions and then Soler if Ed signed off on him since I wasn't sure what his playing time will look like. If he is indeed an every game player now, he's a big time steal at a $1.
The BoSox OF situation definitely bears watching. If you feel confident Betts will play 5 days a week he would be tough not to keep. Most scouts seems to like Polanco better long term but Betts better this year. Pederson is a big time prospect with speed and power too, but he still strikes out at an alarming rate so he is a much better option in a dynasty league than one like this.
Originally Posted by junk
If power is going to be hard to come by then Soler is definitely a $1 keeper, IMO. He will be the every day RF without a doubt unless he totally craters, which is doubtful (safe to count on 5 starts per week). The one thing I would worry a little about with him is that he did miss some time in the minors with leg issues a couple of times, so it's possible he could see a DL stint for a hammy or something. It would by no means deter me from keeping him at $1 but I wanted to make sure and tell you of his potential warts. All in all though if he achieves the Steamer projections of .262/24/78/66/4 that is big time profit.
Donaldson is the no-brainer to me. 3B isn't exactly loaded with sure things and he is one of few. He went for 24/93 & 29/98 HRs/RBI the past two years in Oakland. It is pretty safe to assume a bump in those numbers with the ballpark factor in TOR. Even if he stays at the exact production as last year with 29/98, that kind of power is huge at 3B.
Like I said, if you keep two $1 players you are going to have a shitload of money left to bid on the top free agents. Since there are only 3 keepers per team there will be plenty of talent in the auction. Posey at $21 is still awfully tempting though. Gotta love those C who spend some time at 1B. He is the rare C that hits for BA and power too and is very reliable.
Tough choice. Good luck.
Last edited by E_D_Guapo; 02-27-2015 at 12:14 PM.
I tell you what...the one that sticks out most to me is Stroman. I think the guys is going to be a stud...getting him for a dollar is great. Hard to say with Betts and Pederson, not sure how much play they are going to get.
Definitely a good deal for $1 but pitchers aren't quite as valuable in the head to head format, and only keeping 3 players he would be tough to squeeze in. Pitching in TOR dings him a little bit too because it is a hitter's park that yields some of the highest HR rates in MLB.
Originally Posted by Carp
That said, totally agree that he is going to be a stud. I just don't think he's a top 3 option for Junk's fantasy team given the keeper parameters.
Well, any concern on keeping Stroman went out the window today. Sucks for him, I think he was going to have a good year. Was going to try to grab him even if I didn't keep him.
Originally Posted by E_D_Guapo
Rusney Castillo has been hurt too, so Betts is taking the lead in Boston, but that'll be one to watch. Draft isn't until 3/28
Resurrecting this thread again soliciting advice again for this year. Last year, I kept Donaldson, Betts and Soler. Two of the three worked out. Same rules as last year, I can keep three, but you cannot keep players for more than one year.
I picked Carlos Correa up off the waiver wire prior to him getting the call up to the majors for $2, so obviously I'm keeping him. I also have Maikel Franco, Steven Matz, Aaron Nola and Corey Seager for a $1. My only higher dollar draft guy I'm thinking of keeping is Gerrit Cole who I drafted for $22. Main reason I'm considering him is that my starting pitching killed me last year, I think a lot of #1/#2 type pitchers will be kept this year and, as a result, pitching could go for a lot in the draft.
Franco was pretty good until he got hurt. Seager was great at the end of the year and Matz/Nola both look good long term too.
I'm kind of leaning towards Correa and then some combination of Franco, Seager or Cole.
A winning temperament
If the Phils can muster any sort of run support, I think Nola can be great this year and is a bargain at $1. Plus him being that cheap makes keeping Cole so much easier.
Originally Posted by junk