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Cowboys are Super Bowl favorites
Tony Romo & Co. may well be hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy a month from now.
The Dallas Cowboys have been defying expectations all season. Almost no one picked them to make the playoffs, to win the NFC East with a 12-4 record or to have Tony Romo be considered among the top MVP candidates.
That trend of relatively low respect levels from the public is continuing. According to the Westgate Las Vegas SportsBook, the Cowboys are currently listed with 10-1 odds to win Super Bowl XLIX. That ranks fifth out of the 12 playoff teams and marks Dallas outside of the clubs considered front-runners to win the Super Bowl.
This perception level is mistaken, as there are many metric and game-tape reasons that point to Dallas as the favorite to run the table and win their sixth Lombardi trophy.
Road warriors
It likely will take a victory at Seattle or Green Bay for the Cowboys to win the NFC title game, but winning on the road has become a habit for Dallas: The Cowboys were the only NFL team to win all of their road games during the regular season, and they were the only club to beat Seattle at CenturyLink Field.
A big part of why they have been dominant away from home is that Romo is arguably the best road quarterback in the NFL.
His numbers in these contests have been nothing short of amazing. Romo leads the league in Total QBR in road games (88.9). He has a 20-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio away from AT&T Stadium and leads the league in yards per attempt (8.5), yards per dropback (7.7) and completion rate (70.6 percent) in away games. This is not a one-year anomaly, as Romo's road metrics have been superb for a while now.
Romo is protecting the football
Dallas came into this season with a reputation as a team that didn't do a good job of protecting the football, and its minus-1 turnover margin from 2010 to 2013 (ranked tied for 13th in the league) backed up that claim.
That has not been the case this season. The Cowboys have posted nine games with a positive turnover margin, a mark that is tied for best in the NFL. That trend has improved during the second half of the 2014 campaign, as the Cowboys' plus-9 turnover margin since Week 10 is the league's best.
Romo's performance is a major factor for the positive turnover margin. He has a solid 1.8 percent mark in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric this season, but that total drops to a superb 1.0 percent rate if the Week 1 contest against San Francisco -- which included four bad decisions -- is taken out of the equation. (Note: BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team.)
To put that total into perspective, it means Romo is on pace to make a risky mental error about once every three games. That is part of the reason the Cowboys are winning the turnover battle consistently, and it will make it quite difficult for another team to beat them in this category.
Elite rushing attack
It's hard to overstate just how dominant DeMarco Murray has been this season. He won the league rushing yardage title by a nearly 500-yard margin (1,845 for Murray, 1,361 for Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell). No back had more yards after contact (731), and his 57 receptions ranked fourth among running backs.
Murray displayed a durability level not seen in his previous pro seasons, and he beat the team rushing-yardage record set by Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith. He gives the Cowboys the rare advantage of having two MVP-caliber players in their backfield.
Elite pass blocking
The Cowboys' offensive line is rightly lauded for its ability to road grade in the ground game, but this group is nearly as adept at pass blocking.
Dallas finished the regular season ranked third in ESPN Stats & Information's pass-protection metric that gauges the percentage of pass plays an offense controls at the line of scrimmage. Its 53.2 percent mark in this category placed it behind only Green Bay (54.6 percent) and Indianapolis (54.1 percent).
Superb production from entire receiving corps
The Cowboys' triplets of Romo, Murray and Dez Bryant offer more than enough offensive firepower on their own, but that group is being augmented by superb production from the rest of the Dallas receiving corps.
Terrance Williams is the Alvin Harper to Dez Bryant's Michael Irvin.
It starts with Terrance Williams. His overall numbers (37 receptions for 621 yards) may look subpar, but his eight receiving touchdowns rank tied for 14th among wide receivers, and his 16.8 yards per reception mark places fourth. To use a 1990s Dallas Cowboys analogy, he is the Alvin Harper to Bryant's Michael Irvin.
Cole Beasley is no one's idea of a star player, but he's racked up 277 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns since Week 12. The yardage total ranks 47th among wide receivers in that time frame and is a higher total than the yardage figures posted by Mike Evans (257), Kelvin Benjamin (240) or Martavis Bryant (228) in that span. Beasley would be likely be considered fifth on the Cowboys' target priority list of pass-catchers, but with numbers like these, a defense cannot simply forget about him -- or else.
Perhaps the hottest defense in the NFL right now
The offense finished the regular season on such a strong note that the incredible play of the Cowboys' defense has been almost completely overlooked.
During the final three weeks of the season, the Cowboys finished first in turnovers generated (10), third in interceptions (six), fourth in yards allowed per rush (3.3), fifth in Total QBR allowed (21.3) and tied for ninth in sacks (nine). They did this while facing two powerhouse offenses (Philadelphia and Indianapolis), so this wasn't a matter of dominating low-caliber competition. If this defense performs during the playoffs at anywhere near the level at which it ended the season, the Cowboys will be the most dangerous club.
Bottom line
History shows that no team can ever be considered a shoo-in to win the Super Bowl. It also shows that teams playing the best football at the end of the season tend to be the clubs that win Super Bowls.
Dallas fits that category; it is hitting on nearly all cylinders right now and is built to win games in hostile road conditions. That has to make the Cowboys an odds-on favorite to add another Lombardi trophy to their collection.
Tony Romo & Co. may well be hoisting the Vince Lombardi Trophy a month from now.
The Dallas Cowboys have been defying expectations all season. Almost no one picked them to make the playoffs, to win the NFC East with a 12-4 record or to have Tony Romo be considered among the top MVP candidates.
That trend of relatively low respect levels from the public is continuing. According to the Westgate Las Vegas SportsBook, the Cowboys are currently listed with 10-1 odds to win Super Bowl XLIX. That ranks fifth out of the 12 playoff teams and marks Dallas outside of the clubs considered front-runners to win the Super Bowl.
This perception level is mistaken, as there are many metric and game-tape reasons that point to Dallas as the favorite to run the table and win their sixth Lombardi trophy.
Road warriors
It likely will take a victory at Seattle or Green Bay for the Cowboys to win the NFC title game, but winning on the road has become a habit for Dallas: The Cowboys were the only NFL team to win all of their road games during the regular season, and they were the only club to beat Seattle at CenturyLink Field.
A big part of why they have been dominant away from home is that Romo is arguably the best road quarterback in the NFL.
His numbers in these contests have been nothing short of amazing. Romo leads the league in Total QBR in road games (88.9). He has a 20-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio away from AT&T Stadium and leads the league in yards per attempt (8.5), yards per dropback (7.7) and completion rate (70.6 percent) in away games. This is not a one-year anomaly, as Romo's road metrics have been superb for a while now.
Romo is protecting the football
Dallas came into this season with a reputation as a team that didn't do a good job of protecting the football, and its minus-1 turnover margin from 2010 to 2013 (ranked tied for 13th in the league) backed up that claim.
That has not been the case this season. The Cowboys have posted nine games with a positive turnover margin, a mark that is tied for best in the NFL. That trend has improved during the second half of the 2014 campaign, as the Cowboys' plus-9 turnover margin since Week 10 is the league's best.
Romo's performance is a major factor for the positive turnover margin. He has a solid 1.8 percent mark in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric this season, but that total drops to a superb 1.0 percent rate if the Week 1 contest against San Francisco -- which included four bad decisions -- is taken out of the equation. (Note: BDR measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team.)
To put that total into perspective, it means Romo is on pace to make a risky mental error about once every three games. That is part of the reason the Cowboys are winning the turnover battle consistently, and it will make it quite difficult for another team to beat them in this category.
Elite rushing attack
It's hard to overstate just how dominant DeMarco Murray has been this season. He won the league rushing yardage title by a nearly 500-yard margin (1,845 for Murray, 1,361 for Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell). No back had more yards after contact (731), and his 57 receptions ranked fourth among running backs.
Murray displayed a durability level not seen in his previous pro seasons, and he beat the team rushing-yardage record set by Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith. He gives the Cowboys the rare advantage of having two MVP-caliber players in their backfield.
Elite pass blocking
The Cowboys' offensive line is rightly lauded for its ability to road grade in the ground game, but this group is nearly as adept at pass blocking.
Dallas finished the regular season ranked third in ESPN Stats & Information's pass-protection metric that gauges the percentage of pass plays an offense controls at the line of scrimmage. Its 53.2 percent mark in this category placed it behind only Green Bay (54.6 percent) and Indianapolis (54.1 percent).
Superb production from entire receiving corps
The Cowboys' triplets of Romo, Murray and Dez Bryant offer more than enough offensive firepower on their own, but that group is being augmented by superb production from the rest of the Dallas receiving corps.
Terrance Williams is the Alvin Harper to Dez Bryant's Michael Irvin.
It starts with Terrance Williams. His overall numbers (37 receptions for 621 yards) may look subpar, but his eight receiving touchdowns rank tied for 14th among wide receivers, and his 16.8 yards per reception mark places fourth. To use a 1990s Dallas Cowboys analogy, he is the Alvin Harper to Bryant's Michael Irvin.
Cole Beasley is no one's idea of a star player, but he's racked up 277 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns since Week 12. The yardage total ranks 47th among wide receivers in that time frame and is a higher total than the yardage figures posted by Mike Evans (257), Kelvin Benjamin (240) or Martavis Bryant (228) in that span. Beasley would be likely be considered fifth on the Cowboys' target priority list of pass-catchers, but with numbers like these, a defense cannot simply forget about him -- or else.
Perhaps the hottest defense in the NFL right now
The offense finished the regular season on such a strong note that the incredible play of the Cowboys' defense has been almost completely overlooked.
During the final three weeks of the season, the Cowboys finished first in turnovers generated (10), third in interceptions (six), fourth in yards allowed per rush (3.3), fifth in Total QBR allowed (21.3) and tied for ninth in sacks (nine). They did this while facing two powerhouse offenses (Philadelphia and Indianapolis), so this wasn't a matter of dominating low-caliber competition. If this defense performs during the playoffs at anywhere near the level at which it ended the season, the Cowboys will be the most dangerous club.
Bottom line
History shows that no team can ever be considered a shoo-in to win the Super Bowl. It also shows that teams playing the best football at the end of the season tend to be the clubs that win Super Bowls.
Dallas fits that category; it is hitting on nearly all cylinders right now and is built to win games in hostile road conditions. That has to make the Cowboys an odds-on favorite to add another Lombardi trophy to their collection.
