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[h=1]Boom Or Bust: Which Teams Like To Draft Players From Non-BCS Divisions?[/h]By One.Cool.Customer on May 14 2013, 11:00a @OCC44 128
A quarter of all players drafted in the last four years come from outside the six big BCS divisions. We look at which teams have a propensity for drafting prospects from out of the way schools.
Jerry Jones attended college at the University of Arkansas. He played guard for the Razorbacks, was a co-captain of the 1964 National Championship football team and a teammate of Jimmy Johnson. This has led many to believe that Jerry Jones and the Cowboys have a preference for players out of Arkansas. It seems that every time there's a highly rated prospect out of Arkansas, that player is automatically associated with the Cowboys.
Fact is, of the 200+ draft picks in Jerry Jones' tenure as Cowboys owner, only one draft pick, 2008's Felix Jones, was a Razorback. But it is also a fact that no amount of facts will shake a strong preconceived notion.
Similarly, there's a firmly held belief that the Cowboys love drafting skill position players. The only problem with that particular belief is that the Cowboys haven't really been doing that. Tony Violetti from draftmetrics.com took an extensive look at each NFL team's drafting tendencies from 1992-2011. His findings will be a shock to many who firmly believe that Jerry Jones has a penchant for "shiny things" in the draft:
A more recent theme has been the Cowboys' propensity to draft injured players. After all, they used two successive second-round picks on injured players: Sean Lee and Bruce Carter. And Morris Claiborne had an injury last year as well. Imagine the surprise on many people's faces when they learned that the first six players the Cowboys drafted in 2013 had missed a grand total of two games in the last two years.
Another theme that hasn't yet received a lot of airtime, and this one may have some basis in facts, is that the Cowboys may have a propensity for going after small school standouts in the draft.
The first player to fit this definition was defensive tackle Jethro Pugh out of Elizabeth (N.C.) City State in the 1964 draft. Since then, the Cowboys have had great success looking for talent in out of the way places, and have compiled an impressive list of small school talent that includes Hall of Fame OT Rayfield Wright out of Fort Valley State, HoF OG Larry Allen out of Sonoma State and numerous Pro Bowlers.
And while it’s great that the Cowboys found the likes of Tony Romo or Miles Austin, building your roster with undrafted free agents or small school prospects is a high-risk strategy. Case in point, the 2010 draft: Of the 256 players drafted that year, 195 came from the six big BCS conferences (+ Notre Dame). Another 33 were drafted out of the remaining BCS conferences. That left 28 players from mostly out-of-the-way schools, of which the Cowboys picked two, fourth rounder Akwasi Owusu-Ansah from Indiana (Pa) and seventh rounder Sean Lissemore from William & Mary. Lissemore looks like a solid pick, but AOA has become a synonym among Cowboys fans for a small-school bust.
In 2010, AOA was selected with the 126th pick at the end of the fourth round. The next three DBs selected were Kam Chancellor out of Virginia Tech (133), Dominique Franks out of Oklahoma (135) and Kendrick Lewis out of Mississippi (136). Those three players have combined for 69 starts in three years. AOA started two games for Jacksonville in 2011 and never started for Dallas.
There is a risk inherent in selecting players who’ve excelled against inferior competition. The Cowboys obviously factor this into their draft evaluation, but the Cowboys’ recent talent acquisition history indicates that college pedigree may play a lesser role in Dallas than in other places.
The table below looks at the propensity of each NFL team to draft prospects from out of the way schools. The table shows how many of a team's draft picks between 2010 and 2013 come from non-BCS schools, and I used two criteria for that:
A quarter of all players drafted in the last four years come from outside the six big BCS divisions. We look at which teams have a propensity for drafting prospects from out of the way schools.
Jerry Jones attended college at the University of Arkansas. He played guard for the Razorbacks, was a co-captain of the 1964 National Championship football team and a teammate of Jimmy Johnson. This has led many to believe that Jerry Jones and the Cowboys have a preference for players out of Arkansas. It seems that every time there's a highly rated prospect out of Arkansas, that player is automatically associated with the Cowboys.
Fact is, of the 200+ draft picks in Jerry Jones' tenure as Cowboys owner, only one draft pick, 2008's Felix Jones, was a Razorback. But it is also a fact that no amount of facts will shake a strong preconceived notion.
Similarly, there's a firmly held belief that the Cowboys love drafting skill position players. The only problem with that particular belief is that the Cowboys haven't really been doing that. Tony Violetti from draftmetrics.com took an extensive look at each NFL team's drafting tendencies from 1992-2011. His findings will be a shock to many who firmly believe that Jerry Jones has a penchant for "shiny things" in the draft:
- Only 20% of the Cowboys' total draft picks from 1992-2011 are offensive skill position players, the second lowest value in the league.
- In the first three rounds of the draft from 1991-2011, the Cowboys spent only 16.1% of their draft picks on skill position players. At the time, this was the lowest value in the league.
A more recent theme has been the Cowboys' propensity to draft injured players. After all, they used two successive second-round picks on injured players: Sean Lee and Bruce Carter. And Morris Claiborne had an injury last year as well. Imagine the surprise on many people's faces when they learned that the first six players the Cowboys drafted in 2013 had missed a grand total of two games in the last two years.
Another theme that hasn't yet received a lot of airtime, and this one may have some basis in facts, is that the Cowboys may have a propensity for going after small school standouts in the draft.
The first player to fit this definition was defensive tackle Jethro Pugh out of Elizabeth (N.C.) City State in the 1964 draft. Since then, the Cowboys have had great success looking for talent in out of the way places, and have compiled an impressive list of small school talent that includes Hall of Fame OT Rayfield Wright out of Fort Valley State, HoF OG Larry Allen out of Sonoma State and numerous Pro Bowlers.
And while it’s great that the Cowboys found the likes of Tony Romo or Miles Austin, building your roster with undrafted free agents or small school prospects is a high-risk strategy. Case in point, the 2010 draft: Of the 256 players drafted that year, 195 came from the six big BCS conferences (+ Notre Dame). Another 33 were drafted out of the remaining BCS conferences. That left 28 players from mostly out-of-the-way schools, of which the Cowboys picked two, fourth rounder Akwasi Owusu-Ansah from Indiana (Pa) and seventh rounder Sean Lissemore from William & Mary. Lissemore looks like a solid pick, but AOA has become a synonym among Cowboys fans for a small-school bust.
In 2010, AOA was selected with the 126th pick at the end of the fourth round. The next three DBs selected were Kam Chancellor out of Virginia Tech (133), Dominique Franks out of Oklahoma (135) and Kendrick Lewis out of Mississippi (136). Those three players have combined for 69 starts in three years. AOA started two games for Jacksonville in 2011 and never started for Dallas.
There is a risk inherent in selecting players who’ve excelled against inferior competition. The Cowboys obviously factor this into their draft evaluation, but the Cowboys’ recent talent acquisition history indicates that college pedigree may play a lesser role in Dallas than in other places.
The table below looks at the propensity of each NFL team to draft prospects from out of the way schools. The table shows how many of a team's draft picks between 2010 and 2013 come from non-BCS schools, and I used two criteria for that:
- Non-BCS 6: Players not from the six big divisions (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC) + Notre Dame
- Non-BCS 10: Players not from any of the ten BCS divisions (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC + Notre Dame + C-USA, MAC, MWC and Sun Belt)
Non-BCS picks in %, 2010-2013 (click on column headers to sort)
Team | No. of Picks | non-BCS 6 | non-BCS 6 in % | non-BCS 10 | non-BCS 10 in % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Eagles | 41 | 4 | 10% | 2 | 5% |
Seattle Seahawks | 39 | 10 | 26% | 8 | 21% |
Cincinnati Bengals | 37 | 6 | 16% | 2 | 5% |
Minnesota Vikings | 37 | 5 | 14% | 2 | 5% |
Green Bay Packers | 36 | 12 | 33% | 7 | 19% |
St. Louis Rams | 36 | 12 | 33% | 7 | 19% |
San Francisco 49ers | 36 | 11 | 31% | 7 | 19% |
Buffalo Bills | 35 | 10 | 29% | 4 | 11% |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 35 | 7 | 20% | 2 | 6% |
New England Patriots | 35 | 7 | 20% | 1 | 3% |
Washington Redskins | 34 | 9 | 26% | 2 | 6% |
Houston Texans | 34 | 8 | 24% | 2 | 6% |
Baltimore Ravens | 33 | 12 | 36% | 9 | 27% |
Oakland Raiders | 33 | 8 | 24% | 4 | 12% |
Tennessee Titans | 33 | 8 | 24% | 3 | 9% |
Cleveland Browns | 33 | 6 | 18% | 3 | 9% |
Miami Dolphins | 32 | 10 | 31% | 4 | 13% |
Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | 8 | 25% | 3 | 9% |
Denver Broncos | 32 | 6 | 19% | 1 | 3% |
Arizona Cardinals | 31 | 10 | 32% | 4 | 13% |
Indianapolis Colts | 30 | 7 | 23% | 3 | 10% |
Carolina Panthers | 30 | 6 | 20% | 4 | 13% |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 30 | 5 | 17% | 2 | 7% |
Dallas Cowboys | 29 | 11 | 38% | 7 | 24% |
New York Giants | 29 | 8 | 28% | 3 | 10% |
Detroit Lions | 28 | 10 | 36% | 7 | 25% |
Atlanta Falcons | 27 | 7 | 26% | 2 | 7% |
San Diego Chargers | 27 | 5 | 19% | 1 | 4% |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 25 | 14 | 56% | 10 | 40% |
New York Jets | 25 | 8 | 32% | 2 | 8% |
Chicago Bears | 22 | 8 | 36% | 3 | 14% |
New Orleans Saints | 22 | 4 | 18% | 4 | 18% |