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The Morning After: Cowboys Draft 2024
The Thought Process and the Evaluation Process meet to make the selections that must fix their problems quickly.
BOB STURM
APR 29, 2024
I don’t do draft grades.
This always used to irritate my old bosses, but I think my logic is sound and reasonable.
A draft grade is consumed by people that want you to evaluate how well the team in question performed the task of adding the best possible pieces to their puzzle with the resources they possessed.
But, this isn’t what a writer does.
Instead, it is 100% based on whether a team did what you and the rest of the media thought they should do. As in, did they agree with you which introduces miles of bias that is not relevant or even logical.
If a media guy spends 100 days and two hours a day preparing for the draft, that is a lot relative to the profession. In fact, I assume most media folks who cover the draft spend considerably less than 200 hours preparing for this it. But, they talk as if it is all they do all year. They are speaking as if they know more than what they do, because their bosses want them to have a hot take to get clicks going.
Teams, meanwhile, have 25 guys (a full scouting department) who do this sort of thing all year for their entire careers. Scouting, investigating, analyzing hundreds of amateur players a year and thousands of players over the course of their careers. They are not always right, but if they are wrong often, they get fired.
I have never really seen a media member get fired for giving a wrong draft grade. They may get laughed at for panning the Patrick Mahomes pick, but they don’t lose their careers.
Why?
Because that isn’t their paid career objective.
I just didn’t want to live a lie and I always have felt it is important to be authentic and real with the audience. And to anyone who wants to be a media guy some day, I would suggest rule No. 1 is this:
So, I don’t. And I also don’t really have a boss anymore, so that is cool, too.
But, we didn’t come here to talk about me. We came here to investigate and discuss the Cowboys decision making in the 2024 Draft Weekend.
I think it is fascinating to see their actions, listen to their explanations, and cross-examine it with similar drafts and decisions made over the course of their careers. We have been doing this a long time and there is plenty of information for those of us who collect it.
So, without any further expository in set-up, let’s dive in to a series of topics and questions and answers.
First, here are your new Dallas Cowboys.
They added eight players in the draft and each has a story. As we talked about in the week’s leading up, they were not each acquired at the same price points, so I always like to consider that in the discussion and will include that in each guy’s capsule.
Ok, let’s get started.
What do we think of this overall draft class?
I would say that there is a veil of mystery behind the final five picks. That is more than fair given that the familiarity drops off considerably after Cooper Beebe.
But, the top three are all very highly regarded big fellas who should really help this team moving forward.
Basically, they believe they have found replacements for Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz on the offensive line as well as a young potential understudy for DeMarcus Lawrence.
Once we understand the conveyor belt of talent is always turning, we have to come to terms that Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and DeMarcus Lawrence are nearing the end of the road.
They cost more and affect games less, so you have to remember that expiration dates come for everyone. They were good Cowboys, but you always have to find replacement and prepare for that day. Better a year early than too late and also understanding that plans change along the way. If you thought Tyler Smith was Tyron’s replacement, perhaps you recalculate as you add more information.
What was the main objective of this draft?
It definitely feels like they put their resources into improving the physicality of this football team.
They want to get better in the trenches and I believe they did. Of course, it is difficult to fully prove that until you are at sea in the middle of the season, but in terms of Guyton, Kneeland, and Beebe, they all pass the tests of college tape that shows physical players who are ready to rumble.
I did think it was revealing that Dallas suggested their plan was basically to use No. 24 and attempt to turn it into two starting offensive linemen who could both start immediately. Most years, that is an unlikely premise, but No. 24 was easily their biggest asset this weekend (it represented 59% of their entire draft currency) and to basically cut it in two pieces and get a top tackle and potentially a top center is a very nice piece of business.
There were other objectives for sure, but once you drop past a certain threshold, it does seem that they trusted their process of taking good football players that do not address specific needs. Instead focusing on attempting to upgrade overall talent, knowing that if you can add resources that exceed what you are paying, then you are building wealth for the long-term process that expects attrition and shrinkage.
So, again, allow me to reference DraftTek and their points chart to explain this the best I can as it relates to 1389 points which is what they had after the trade with Detroit:
The rest is throwing darts with 3%. This is your penny stock money to try to find some flyers worth gambling on. I think when we look at it this way, then we don’t get so worked up about not getting a RB and just throwing four darts on four guys the scouts and coaches liked.
I think that is right.
“So it came down to LB Marist Liafau at No. 87 vs. a running back with a lower grade. Highly doubtful Liafau gets to the Cowboys in the fifth round in their minds. To get a pick in the 4th round, they would've had to given up a 2025 3, so they stood with what they had.”
If they take USC’s RB Marshawn Lloyd at No. 87 (who was taken with the very next pick at No. 88), then we all sign off on this draft as very strong and positive and full of optimism.
Why are they bringing back Ezekiel Elliott?
However, when you ignore RB and then pair it with the most Dallas Cowboys thing ever – re-signing Ezekiel Elliott – everyone wants to riot. Trust me, I don’t get that signing either, especially with Jerry telling us that he liked how he finished the season - "I thought he played well the last part of the season at New England. Very well" - despite Zeke’s final games in New England looking like he was beyond cooked:
So, I don’t know what to do with the Zeke news, except to say this:
One of the biggest issues I have with the Jerry Jones administration is the feeling that he takes the meritocracy out of a sport where merit is all that should ever matter.
In other words, riddle me this, Batman: If Zeke is not good enough to make the 53 man roster in August, which I think is a very good question, does he still make it?
And even worse, if Zeke is not the best option on 3rd-and-goal in Week 1, why do I believe he will definitely be the one who is getting the ball?
In a nutshell, this is why this team has never achieved at its highest level under Jones since I have lived here.
I just think he allows “his guys” to not have to prove themselves like most of the rest of pro football demands. When you are no longer good enough, they cut you loose. With Jones, his soft heart and loyalty blinds his vision and there is nothing ruthless about this organization anymore. Nothing is harder for Jerry than goodbyes and this proves it is not getting better with age.
So, you can believe the pairing of the RB signing with a RB not being taken in the draft is related. Just like not considering a QB because of Trey Lance already representing the fourth round pick are related, too. We are constantly tying these loose ends like a season of Succession in real life. In fact, what is more Succession than a picture of the war-room?
I’d wager there is no other war-room in all of sports that has seats for family and friends around the outer borders of the room.
I know, it comes with the dinner.
Let’s visit about each pick in our remaining time together today.
Pick No. 29 - Tyler Guyton - OT - Oklahoma
Hopefully, you know my views on the young lad by now.
If not, please review the following pieces that can be found here and here. They will tell you the story of my optimism and delight that they were able to turn No. 24 into Guyton and Beebe, because I see great value in both of them. This worked out very well, in my estimation.
Pick No. 56 - Marshawn Kneeland - DE - Western Michigan
For you fans of the Sturm 60, you probably shared my frustration on this one because if I had time for a few more, Kneeland was going to make the cut.
In the end, I kept doing OL because I felt like they were grabbing two and would probably not address edge at all, so he ended up being No. 62 or so on my to-do list and I ran out of time. But, I had a sinking feeling when the Darius Robinson rumors were starting that Dallas had let it slip that they were interested in adding a DeMarcus Lawrence clone as soon as they had the chance.
I am collecting my Western Michigan tape and resources and will get him written up this week with the 200 snap treatment for sure.
But, when all reports and clips I have seen show a large man who plays with the requisite motor and power against the run along with developing pass rush traits, I am in. I think Dan Quinn has leaned towards all pass rush and less run stop from his edges and it was time to switch that around. I would like to share with you the scouts Bob McGinn visited with before the draft on this kid:
But, you can see the similarities, right?
What would I have done at pick No. 56?
I would have taken Trey Benson, the RB from Florida State (and actually thought they did for a second), but he went at pick No. 66 to Arizona. There is plenty of reason to believe they have a chance to be very pleased with this pick, though. I don’t hate it at all.
Pick No. 73 - Cooper Beebe - G/C - Kansas State
You already know I love this pick and I am a big believer that he will be fine at center and was a dominant enough college player that to take pick No. 24 and cut it in two and get Guyton and Beebe and start them both in September is my favorite part of this draft. I really have no concerns. Will he be a top center or just a solid one? We need to let him play, but hopefully I have been clear on this guy throughout the process. I love his work.
THE STURM 60
Draft Profile - Kansas State's Cooper Beebe
BOB STURM
·
APR 13
This is our 51st member of the Sturm 60 and as we are now within two weeks of the draft, I think it is fair to say that nearly all of our remaining ten will be offensive linemen who are candidates for the Dallas Cowboys picks on Day 2 or perhaps early Day 3.
Let’s get a little Bob McGinn’s work on Beebe:
What would I have done at No. 73?
You already know. Cooper Beebe.
Pick No. 87 - Marist Liufau - LB - Notre Dame
Obviously, this is where the rubber meets the road as we already said. This also is a frustrating miss by the Sturm 60, but also where the consensus folks did not seem to rate him as the 4th LB taken at all.
Brugler’s guide had him listed as his 15th ranked LB.
Ourlads had him at 6th.
McGinn did not have him in the top 12 LBs.
The Consensus board had him as the 11th LB.
But, the Cowboys had a chance to take many LB’s at No. 87 if they wanted one and they chose Marist Liufau.
There were several LBs I was familiar with, but as you know, Marist is one I am anxious to dive into, but am flying blind right now.
Many of us were hoping for Payton Wilson from NC State, but the whole league was terrified of his health history and the Steelers might love pick No. 98. I also really liked Jeremiah Trotter, Jr, but again, I cannot rank him against a player I have yet to fully study, so let me just say this:
The Cowboys bet plenty that this guy is their guy, so we owe them the chance to be right in the face of nearly everyone else.
What would I have done at Pick No. 87?
I was taking Marshawn Lloyd, RB, USC. But, they did not think they should ignore their board. They knew they wanted a LB and a RB and took the higher guy on their board.
That is the draft process in a nutshell. Trust your work and trust your judgement and don’t care what Brugler, McGinn, or Ourlads says at all. They don’t have to live with your roster. You do.
I do have thoughts on Day 3 and the UDFA’s, but I will save that for another piece soon.
The corner from Wake Forest is well worth our time and also a position where they can use his type. Caelon Carson looks like he has a real chance to get on the field quickly if he has a nice camp.
But, these 3,000 words will suffice for now. I have a lot of players to learn and we have a nice gap of time now to do it.
Anxious to hear your thoughts below, too.
The Thought Process and the Evaluation Process meet to make the selections that must fix their problems quickly.
BOB STURM
APR 29, 2024
I don’t do draft grades.
This always used to irritate my old bosses, but I think my logic is sound and reasonable.
A draft grade is consumed by people that want you to evaluate how well the team in question performed the task of adding the best possible pieces to their puzzle with the resources they possessed.
But, this isn’t what a writer does.
Instead, it is 100% based on whether a team did what you and the rest of the media thought they should do. As in, did they agree with you which introduces miles of bias that is not relevant or even logical.
If a media guy spends 100 days and two hours a day preparing for the draft, that is a lot relative to the profession. In fact, I assume most media folks who cover the draft spend considerably less than 200 hours preparing for this it. But, they talk as if it is all they do all year. They are speaking as if they know more than what they do, because their bosses want them to have a hot take to get clicks going.
Teams, meanwhile, have 25 guys (a full scouting department) who do this sort of thing all year for their entire careers. Scouting, investigating, analyzing hundreds of amateur players a year and thousands of players over the course of their careers. They are not always right, but if they are wrong often, they get fired.
I have never really seen a media member get fired for giving a wrong draft grade. They may get laughed at for panning the Patrick Mahomes pick, but they don’t lose their careers.
Why?
Because that isn’t their paid career objective.
I just didn’t want to live a lie and I always have felt it is important to be authentic and real with the audience. And to anyone who wants to be a media guy some day, I would suggest rule No. 1 is this:
In other words, it is OK to admit what we don’t know. It is OK to say we are flying a bit blind with limited information. And it is OK to not give a grade one hour after a draft.
So, I don’t. And I also don’t really have a boss anymore, so that is cool, too.
But, we didn’t come here to talk about me. We came here to investigate and discuss the Cowboys decision making in the 2024 Draft Weekend.
I think it is fascinating to see their actions, listen to their explanations, and cross-examine it with similar drafts and decisions made over the course of their careers. We have been doing this a long time and there is plenty of information for those of us who collect it.
So, without any further expository in set-up, let’s dive in to a series of topics and questions and answers.
First, here are your new Dallas Cowboys.
They added eight players in the draft and each has a story. As we talked about in the week’s leading up, they were not each acquired at the same price points, so I always like to consider that in the discussion and will include that in each guy’s capsule.
Ok, let’s get started.
What do we think of this overall draft class?
I would say that there is a veil of mystery behind the final five picks. That is more than fair given that the familiarity drops off considerably after Cooper Beebe.
But, the top three are all very highly regarded big fellas who should really help this team moving forward.
Basically, they believe they have found replacements for Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz on the offensive line as well as a young potential understudy for DeMarcus Lawrence.
Once we understand the conveyor belt of talent is always turning, we have to come to terms that Tyron Smith, Zack Martin, and DeMarcus Lawrence are nearing the end of the road.
They cost more and affect games less, so you have to remember that expiration dates come for everyone. They were good Cowboys, but you always have to find replacement and prepare for that day. Better a year early than too late and also understanding that plans change along the way. If you thought Tyler Smith was Tyron’s replacement, perhaps you recalculate as you add more information.
What was the main objective of this draft?
It definitely feels like they put their resources into improving the physicality of this football team.
They want to get better in the trenches and I believe they did. Of course, it is difficult to fully prove that until you are at sea in the middle of the season, but in terms of Guyton, Kneeland, and Beebe, they all pass the tests of college tape that shows physical players who are ready to rumble.
I did think it was revealing that Dallas suggested their plan was basically to use No. 24 and attempt to turn it into two starting offensive linemen who could both start immediately. Most years, that is an unlikely premise, but No. 24 was easily their biggest asset this weekend (it represented 59% of their entire draft currency) and to basically cut it in two pieces and get a top tackle and potentially a top center is a very nice piece of business.
There were other objectives for sure, but once you drop past a certain threshold, it does seem that they trusted their process of taking good football players that do not address specific needs. Instead focusing on attempting to upgrade overall talent, knowing that if you can add resources that exceed what you are paying, then you are building wealth for the long-term process that expects attrition and shrinkage.
So, again, allow me to reference DraftTek and their points chart to explain this the best I can as it relates to 1389 points which is what they had after the trade with Detroit:
- Pick No. 29 - Tyler Guyton - 640 points - 46%
- Pick No. 56 - Marshawn Kneeland - 340 points - 24%
- Pick No. 73 - Cooper Beebe - 225 points - 16%
- Pick No. 87 - Marist Liufau - 155 points - 11%
The rest is throwing darts with 3%. This is your penny stock money to try to find some flyers worth gambling on. I think when we look at it this way, then we don’t get so worked up about not getting a RB and just throwing four darts on four guys the scouts and coaches liked.
- Pick No. 174 - Caelon Carson - 22 points - 2%
- Pick No. 216 - Ryan Fluornoy - 5 points - 0.7%
- Pick No. 233 - Nathan Thomas - 1 point - 0.2%
- Pick No. 244 - Justin Rogers - 1 point - 0.1%
I think that is right.
“So it came down to LB Marist Liafau at No. 87 vs. a running back with a lower grade. Highly doubtful Liafau gets to the Cowboys in the fifth round in their minds. To get a pick in the 4th round, they would've had to given up a 2025 3, so they stood with what they had.”
If they take USC’s RB Marshawn Lloyd at No. 87 (who was taken with the very next pick at No. 88), then we all sign off on this draft as very strong and positive and full of optimism.
Why are they bringing back Ezekiel Elliott?
However, when you ignore RB and then pair it with the most Dallas Cowboys thing ever – re-signing Ezekiel Elliott – everyone wants to riot. Trust me, I don’t get that signing either, especially with Jerry telling us that he liked how he finished the season - "I thought he played well the last part of the season at New England. Very well" - despite Zeke’s final games in New England looking like he was beyond cooked:
So, I don’t know what to do with the Zeke news, except to say this:
One of the biggest issues I have with the Jerry Jones administration is the feeling that he takes the meritocracy out of a sport where merit is all that should ever matter.
In other words, riddle me this, Batman: If Zeke is not good enough to make the 53 man roster in August, which I think is a very good question, does he still make it?
And even worse, if Zeke is not the best option on 3rd-and-goal in Week 1, why do I believe he will definitely be the one who is getting the ball?
In a nutshell, this is why this team has never achieved at its highest level under Jones since I have lived here.
I just think he allows “his guys” to not have to prove themselves like most of the rest of pro football demands. When you are no longer good enough, they cut you loose. With Jones, his soft heart and loyalty blinds his vision and there is nothing ruthless about this organization anymore. Nothing is harder for Jerry than goodbyes and this proves it is not getting better with age.
So, you can believe the pairing of the RB signing with a RB not being taken in the draft is related. Just like not considering a QB because of Trey Lance already representing the fourth round pick are related, too. We are constantly tying these loose ends like a season of Succession in real life. In fact, what is more Succession than a picture of the war-room?
I’d wager there is no other war-room in all of sports that has seats for family and friends around the outer borders of the room.
I know, it comes with the dinner.
Let’s visit about each pick in our remaining time together today.
Pick No. 29 - Tyler Guyton - OT - Oklahoma
Hopefully, you know my views on the young lad by now.
If not, please review the following pieces that can be found here and here. They will tell you the story of my optimism and delight that they were able to turn No. 24 into Guyton and Beebe, because I see great value in both of them. This worked out very well, in my estimation.
Pick No. 56 - Marshawn Kneeland - DE - Western Michigan
For you fans of the Sturm 60, you probably shared my frustration on this one because if I had time for a few more, Kneeland was going to make the cut.
In the end, I kept doing OL because I felt like they were grabbing two and would probably not address edge at all, so he ended up being No. 62 or so on my to-do list and I ran out of time. But, I had a sinking feeling when the Darius Robinson rumors were starting that Dallas had let it slip that they were interested in adding a DeMarcus Lawrence clone as soon as they had the chance.
I am collecting my Western Michigan tape and resources and will get him written up this week with the 200 snap treatment for sure.
But, when all reports and clips I have seen show a large man who plays with the requisite motor and power against the run along with developing pass rush traits, I am in. I think Dan Quinn has leaned towards all pass rush and less run stop from his edges and it was time to switch that around. I would like to share with you the scouts Bob McGinn visited with before the draft on this kid:
I would also leave this here. I am not saying he has a chance to be Tank, but we forget where Lawrence started. Also, they were both second rounders, with Lawrence being at the top of the round:
But, you can see the similarities, right?
What would I have done at pick No. 56?
I would have taken Trey Benson, the RB from Florida State (and actually thought they did for a second), but he went at pick No. 66 to Arizona. There is plenty of reason to believe they have a chance to be very pleased with this pick, though. I don’t hate it at all.
Pick No. 73 - Cooper Beebe - G/C - Kansas State
You already know I love this pick and I am a big believer that he will be fine at center and was a dominant enough college player that to take pick No. 24 and cut it in two and get Guyton and Beebe and start them both in September is my favorite part of this draft. I really have no concerns. Will he be a top center or just a solid one? We need to let him play, but hopefully I have been clear on this guy throughout the process. I love his work.
THE STURM 60
Draft Profile - Kansas State's Cooper Beebe
BOB STURM
·
APR 13
This is our 51st member of the Sturm 60 and as we are now within two weeks of the draft, I think it is fair to say that nearly all of our remaining ten will be offensive linemen who are candidates for the Dallas Cowboys picks on Day 2 or perhaps early Day 3.
Let’s get a little Bob McGinn’s work on Beebe:
They certainly are not building him up too high, but I really dig him and I think he is a McCarthy kinda guy and will be more than fine.
What would I have done at No. 73?
You already know. Cooper Beebe.
Pick No. 87 - Marist Liufau - LB - Notre Dame
Obviously, this is where the rubber meets the road as we already said. This also is a frustrating miss by the Sturm 60, but also where the consensus folks did not seem to rate him as the 4th LB taken at all.
Brugler’s guide had him listed as his 15th ranked LB.
Ourlads had him at 6th.
McGinn did not have him in the top 12 LBs.
The Consensus board had him as the 11th LB.
But, the Cowboys had a chance to take many LB’s at No. 87 if they wanted one and they chose Marist Liufau.
There were several LBs I was familiar with, but as you know, Marist is one I am anxious to dive into, but am flying blind right now.
Many of us were hoping for Payton Wilson from NC State, but the whole league was terrified of his health history and the Steelers might love pick No. 98. I also really liked Jeremiah Trotter, Jr, but again, I cannot rank him against a player I have yet to fully study, so let me just say this:
The Cowboys bet plenty that this guy is their guy, so we owe them the chance to be right in the face of nearly everyone else.
What would I have done at Pick No. 87?
I was taking Marshawn Lloyd, RB, USC. But, they did not think they should ignore their board. They knew they wanted a LB and a RB and took the higher guy on their board.
That is the draft process in a nutshell. Trust your work and trust your judgement and don’t care what Brugler, McGinn, or Ourlads says at all. They don’t have to live with your roster. You do.
I do have thoughts on Day 3 and the UDFA’s, but I will save that for another piece soon.
The corner from Wake Forest is well worth our time and also a position where they can use his type. Caelon Carson looks like he has a real chance to get on the field quickly if he has a nice camp.
But, these 3,000 words will suffice for now. I have a lot of players to learn and we have a nice gap of time now to do it.
Anxious to hear your thoughts below, too.
