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By Bob Sturm
Feb 1, 2023
Before we start evaluating our draft prospects this offseason, let’s look at the important Cowboys’ free-agent roster decisions.
Dallas has done a nice job over the years of making sure it doesn’t lose its home-grown draftees unless the valuation gets out of the range. It is a balance of making sure you the Cowboys have the money when they need it and also knowing their own players better than any other team could and better than they could know any other players in the league. This is a vital part of keeping the talent levels where they must be as well as maximizing their allotted cap room of $224.8 million for 2023. We have seen a cap increase of nearly $42 million (hey, about the price of a quarterback!) in the past 24 months.
Today, we sort through the 18 unrestricted free agents currently on the Cowboys’ roster and put them into priority-level categories.
I have zero free agents listed as “high priorities” which is probably best defined as guys who would set the franchise back if Dallas lets them get away. I like some of the players at the top of this list, but none are so spectacular this season that the Cowboys would find themselves in a major crisis to replace them. As the list goes on, I use a few subcategories to demonstrate that there are players with great use, but we need to understand age, value and role before we get too carried away.
https://theathletic.com/4138283/2023/01/30/cowboys-offense-mike-mccarthy-dak-prescott/
Another thing to note before we dive into the weeds: Every year we do this and find that most on this list can be retained at great prices if the Cowboys wish. We get into big debates about someone midway down this list and fear the league will throw a Brinks truck at him and then we find out that doesn’t happen. What players often find out in free agency is that guys on this list and every list across the league will have rather tepid activity in free agency. With the cap realities across the league and the elite players vacuuming up all the money, there will be 100 to 150 players who get all the phone calls and everyone else is scrambling for jobs. That averages out to three to five free agents per team. Reality bites for the 30-year-old UFA who is a “contributor” on special teams. The market is not finding too many inefficiencies there and minimum contracts are generally the outcome in most cases.
That said, let’s do our due diligence and offer a thought on each player:
Cowboys UFA's 2023
| PLAYER | POSITION | 2023 AGE | PRIORITY LEVEL |
|---|---|---|---|
 Dalton Schultz | TE | 27 | Medium Plus |
 Tony Pollard | RB | 26 | Medium Plus |
 Leighton Vander Esch | LB | 27 | Medium Plus |
 Donovan Wilson | S | 28 | Medium Plus |
 Anthony Brown | CB | 30 | Medium |
 Cooper Rush | QB | 30 | Medium |
 Dante Fowler | EDGE | 29 | Medium |
 Noah Brown | WR | 27 | Medium |
 Carlos Watkins | DT | 30 | Near Medium |
 Connor McGovern | OL | 26 | Near Medium |
 Johnathan Hankins | DT | 31 | Near Medium |
 Anthony Barr | LB | 31 | Near Medium |
| DB | 33 | Near Medium |
| WR | 34 | Near Medium |
 Jason Peters | OL | 41 | Low |
 Luke Gifford | LB | 28 | Low |
 Jake McQuaide | LS | 36 | Low |
| K | 34 | Out |
Medium plus
This category includes the four players who, if we are running the team this morning, we will be moving on before free agency opens.
Dalton Schultz, TE, 27: I assume there is a number where Schultz makes sense and I really like a lot of what he brings to the table. It’s just that from what we understand, he wants top-of-the-TE-market-range money and the “top five” range is still $14 million AAV (for four years is $56 million). The fantasy stats are fine as the Cowboys throw to him plenty, but they seldom tell us he is a matchup nightmare by running him down seams and causing problems in the deep secondary. The Tampa Bay game gave us a vision of what he could be, but we don’t see it enough. There is a price where this can happen, but I also believe Jake Ferguson and friends could probably do 80 percent of the job at 10 percent of the price.
Tony Pollard, RB, 26: This was the top priority and you may recall my hopes that Dallas would have used that 2022 cap space to lock him down with an extension before the year to put some of that Amari Cooper savings to good use. Instead, the Cowboys did not and their best offensive talent this side of CeeDee Lamb was excellent. I would love to see the San Francisco game again with a fully fit Pollard for four quarters, but now that injury clouds our vision of what his contract should be or whether he should be tagged. Michael Gallup had a different injury, but his first year back was a lost cause. You probably shouldn’t franchise tag a player if that one season will be compromised. The RB tag is $10 million this year and I will need a doctor to assure me that isn’t a big mistake. You might want to draft your next Pollard.
Tony Pollard (Kim Klement / USA Today)
Leighton Vander Esch, LB, 27: Vander Esch has probably earned himself a contract of multiple years and a decent price, so this will be one to monitor. He has health concerns, but he also is a positive impact player who might have been overvalued as a first-round pick and huge extension guy. But like so many players in this league, there is a price where he can be a really important part of your squad. Finding that price will be the key. Would he take two years at $6 millon per? Pittsburgh signed Myles Jack for two years for $16 million, which is a bit richer, but you might be able to talk me into that.
Donovan Wilson, S, 28: This is our candidate for the most likely to get away. The safety market can get over $10 million per season quickly. Wilson has done a nice job getting the league’s attention, but he is a bit older and a player who plays a style that is not conducive to perfect attendance. The Cowboys have options at safety and it might be best to let someone else pay him if the price gets too rich, but the Marcus Maye deal in New Orleans was three years for $22.5 million and that might be the range we are talking about with Wilson. Jayron Kearse stayed for two years, $10 million and that might be more the Cowboys’ hope. We shall see where this one goes because Wilson was really solid this year.
Medium
Anthony Brown, CB, 30: He has been a wonderful veteran workhorse for a long time and the Achilles tendon injury is a problematic one. I assume the Cowboys will approach him on a one-year recovery-type contract, but I think the Cowboys have to enter the offseason knowing they need a few corners.
Cooper Rush, QB, 30: There is no doubt Rush made some money this season, the question is whether he was tethered to Kellen Moore more than he was the Cowboys. He is now an accomplished backup QB which comes with a price tag of about $5 million per season. I have my doubts about whether the Cowboys wish to offer that given the price tag he already provides them, but I now understand that you could do much worse than Rush and if he gets a three-year, $15 million offer from somewhere to back up a kid, good for him.
Dante Fowler, edge, 29: You can never have enough edge rushers and Fowler had his moments. He was brought in on a very cheap (on year, $3 million) deal in ’22 and I would happily offer the same deal. I am not sure that would secure him as edge rushers have solid markets if they are coming off a year where they made plays. We will monitor this one.
Noah Brown (Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)
Noah Brown, WR, 27: Very few of us thought Brown would be the Cowboys’ second-best wide receiver in 2022, but he almost certainly was. That is good news and bad news. Brown raised his visibility and perhaps his paycheck. He also is so young and always had tremendous talent. I think he might get a nice raise, at least.
Others to consider: Carlos Watkins (29), Johnathan Hankins (30) and Anthony Barr (30) are players I am interested in to a point if Dan Quinn tells me he is. Price tags will vary, of course, and while each has his coveted attributes, we must not fall in love with guys at this age. Instead, the Cowboys would love to replace them with draft picks. Connor McGovern is also very interesting. In a perfect world, you have Tyron Smith and Terence Steele at tackle with Tyler Smith and Zack Martin at guard. On opening day, McGovern will just be 25 and Dallas doesn’t want to pay top dollar to everyone on its offense. If it could find a decent three-year number for McGovern, Dallas might just do it, despite his limitations. The general point here is that the Cowboys have trained him and he might be graduating now and ready to play his best. Do you want it to be in Dallas?
You just have to get the number right.
The rest of the list is special teams guys and, no, I am not interested in another season of Brett Maher. The good news if you disagree is that the team doesn’t listen to my wishes often.
