President Trump Thread...

[Cotton]

 

[yimyammer]

...

 

[Sheik]

I got locked out of twitter for saying something like “Mr. Potato Head lookin bitch.”, in a thread about Brian Stelter.

That’s probably the 10th worst thing I’ve posted, but never got locked out for anything else.

 

[Cotton]

I got locked out of twitter for saying something like “Mr. Potato Head lookin bitch.”, in a thread about Brian Stelter.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I got locked out of twitter for saying something like “Mr. Potato Head lookin bitch.”, in a thread about Brian Stelter.

That’s probably the 10th worst thing I’ve posted, but never got locked out for anything else.

Seriously? They're protecting Brian Stelter? From that?

 

[Cotton]

Seriously? They're protecting Brian Stelter? From that?

From the meanie heads like Sheik.

 

[Cotton]

 

[Sheik]

Seriously? They're protecting Brian Stelter? From that?

Yeah. I had to delete the post before the 12 hour countdown would start to me being able to tweet and retweet.

I’m sure it was Brian’s fan that reported me. I don’t think they actively protect him.

 

[Smitty]

'Shades of 2016': Two of 2016's most accurate polls once again tell different story than rest of polling industry

Two of the more accurate pollsters of the 2016 election see a tightening race as the 2020 election hits its final stretch.

www.washingtonexaminer.com

'Shades of 2016': Two of 2016's most accurate polls once again tell different story than rest of polling industry
by Michael Lee

| October 21, 2020 01:19 PM


Two of the more accurate pollsters of the 2016 election see a tightening race as the 2020 election hits its final stretch.

“Today’s Trump vs. Biden poll finds that the race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden has suddenly gotten much tighter,” wrote Jed Graham of Investor’s Business Daily, the publication behind the poll. “IBD/TIPP’s latest 2020 presidential poll shows that Republicans are rallying around Trump, Biden is leaking Democratic support, and the gap among independents has narrowed.”

The IBD/TIPP poll, which is released daily, had Biden leading Trump, 48.1% to 45.8%, nationally on Oct. 20, a 2.3-point advantage for Biden. That stands in stark contrast to the current RealClearPolitics average, which shows Biden leading by 7.9 points nationally. IBD/TIPP’s Oct. 21 poll showed similar results, with Biden leading with 48.5% to Trump's 46%, a new high for the president.

“Since the IBD/TIPP 2020 Presidential Election Tracking Poll launched on Monday, Oct. 12, Biden’s support has slipped 3.8 points, from 51.9% to a new low-water mark of 48.1%,” Graham said. “Trump poll numbers have gone the other way, rising 2.4 points to his new high-water mark of 45.8%. Biden’s lead peaked at 8.6 points in the Oct. 13 presidential poll.”

With the race getting so narrow down the homestretch, Graham questioned whether the results were “shades of 2016.”

“In 2016, almost all presidential polls pointed to a Hillary Clinton victory over Donald Trump,” Graham said. “The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two election polls credited with predicting President Trump’s 2016 surprise showing. TIPP, IBD’s polling partner, succeeded in picking up on the greater enthusiasm among Republicans for their candidate.”

The recent IBD/TIPP polling once again sees a similar trend in enthusiasm.

“The latest IBD/TIPP Trump vs. Biden poll has some similarities with the Trump vs. Clinton race,” Graham said. “Republicans again seem more excited about their candidate.”

The final IBD/TIPP poll of the 2016 race saw Trump leading Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, 45% to 43.4%, a 1.6-point advantage. While Trump won the election, he lost the national popular vote by 2.1 points. Despite incorrectly calling the national race, IBD/TIPP was rated as one of the two most accurate pollsters during the 2016 election in a Washington Post analysis, only being bested by McClatchy/Marist polls.

But elections in the United States are decided by the Electoral College, not a national popular vote. When it came to polling in 2016, it was swing states that pollsters had the most trouble nailing down. Trump ended up winning many states that polls showed him trailing in, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

One pollster that seemed to have its fingers on the pulse of the election in 2016 swing states was Trafalgar Group. It was the only polling operation to show correctly that Trump was leading in Michigan and Pennsylvania, two states that helped push Trump to victory.

“We ended up having an incredible year,” Robert Cahaly, Trafalgar’s head pollster, recently told National Review. “I mean, we got Pennsylvania right. We got Michigan right. We had the best poll in five of the battleground states in 2016. And I actually predicted 306 to 232 on the Electoral College. And we went from doing a little bit of polling on the side to that [being] our primary business in about 24 hours. And since then, that’s what we’ve been doing.”

Trafalgar is standing by itself again in 2020, with its polls showing Trump ahead or narrowly behind in key battleground states.

The pollster’s latest Wisconsin poll shows Biden leading, 47.6% to 46.3%, a slim 1.3-point advantage dwarfed by the current RealClearPolitics average that shows Biden up 6.3 points. Trafalgar shows similar results in Pennsylvania, where its more recent poll has Biden leading Trump, 47.4% to 45.1%, a 2.3-point edge for Biden. The current RealClearPolitics average in Pennsylvania has Biden leading by 3.7 points.

In other swing states, Trafalgar’s polls actually give Trump the advantage. In Michigan, the pollster has Trump leading Biden, 46.5% to 45.9%, a slim 0.6-point edge. But RealClearPolitics's average says the opposite, showing Biden leading by 7.2 points. Its latest Florida poll has Trump leading Biden, 48.4% to 46.1%, or 2.3 points. The current RealClearPolitics average in Florida shows Biden up by 1.6 points. In Arizona, Trafalgar has Trump ahead, 47.8% to 43.8%, a 4-point lead. The RealClearPolitics average shows Biden leading by 3.1 points in the state. Trafalgar also shows Trump ahead, 47.8% to 46.1%, in its most recent North Carolina poll, a 1.7-point edge. RealClearPolitics’s average has Biden leading by 2.3 points.

Trafalgar says it succeeds where others fail by accounting for “social-desirability bias,” what some have called the “shy Trump voter.” Trafalgar says it has methods of getting past that bias, giving the public a more accurate look at what’s really happening.

“I’ve got to get past what you want to say in public and get to what you really feel because what’s in your heart is going to be what’s on that ballot,” Cahaly said.

As for the 2020 race, Cahaly stands alone in predicting a Trump victory.


“If it all happened right now, my best guess would be an Electoral College victory in the high 270s, low 280s," he said.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Yep. And I still think the hidden Trump voter quotient is higher now than it was in 2016. Maybe much higher.

 

[Sheik]

If there isn’t a gigantic “bombshell” dropped before Election Day against Trump, Trump is going to win easily.

As much as I’d like all the Biden information dropped at once, just because I want to know about what they have, they are doing this perfectly.

They’re keeping Biden on defense. Every day there’s a new drip, today it’s the business partner confirming the email chain and saying Joe was the signer on everything.

If they can keep Joe on defense from now until Election Day, couple that with Barrett possibly being confirmed, that is going to soak what little enthusiasm there ever was for Joe Biden.

Every poll is trending toward Trump. Not just the ones that were right in 2016. The massive gaps in support polling was artificial to begin with. Nobody is excited about Joe Biden.

I don’t think we’ve seen the last punch the democrats are going to throw, I’m just bracing for what they may try.

 

[yimyammer]

I think It’s about time for Trump to disavow the KKK

 

[jsmith6919]

 

[Sheik]

 

[Sheik]

If nothing else, Trump knows how to play the game.

 

[Cotton]

No damn way.

 

[jsmith6919]

 

[Genghis Khan]

It's unreal.

YOU'RE the media.

It's almost as if you have sources and investigative skills and if you want it to be verified you could do it yourself.

But they don't want it verified. They want to be able to say it's not verified.

 

[Cotton]

It's unreal.

YOU'RE the media.

It's almost as if you have sources and investigative skills and if you want it to be verified you could do it yourself.

But they don't want it verified. They want to be able to say it's not verified.

This shit is about to come to a head, and the fact that Trump is sitting that dude in the front row of the debate is fucking brilliant.

 

[Genghis Khan]

This shit is about to come to a head, and the fact that Trump is sitting that dude in the front row of the debate is fucking brilliant.

It's the same move he pulled with Hillary. It's great.