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Hot Take: Peyton Manning Will Struggle Mightily in 2015
by 1bigfan13
DallasCowboysCentral staff writer
Hot Take up front: I think Peyton Manning will take a significant step back this year. I believe his final numbers will look more like 3,300 yards passing, 23 TD, 20 INT rather than the 4,700 yards, 35 TD, 15 INT numbers that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from him. Additionally, I don’t think the Broncos make the playoffs this year. I see them missing out with an 8-8 record.
The Rundown: Heading into the 2015 NFL season the Denver Broncos are seen by most as one of the top three favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 50. Most of the belief in the Broncos is due to the blind faith placed in Peyton Manning. Manning has justifiably earned this benefit of the doubt. In most cases he has somewhat met those expectations by routinely leading his teams to division titles while amassing passing statistics typically only seen in Madden video games. That being said, I think this is the year that Manning takes a significant step backwards and as a result I see the Broncos missing the playoffs.
The two main reasons that lead me to believe we’ll see a less productive Peyton than we’re used to seeing are his age and the change in offensive schemes.
Age is the factor that carries the most weight in my assessment of the 2015 version of Peyton Manning. Manning is 39 years old. It’s common for the athletic skills of athletes to regress once they hit their mid to upper 30s. Obviously there are some exceptions as some people age more gracefully than others. See Tom Brady. He’s 38 but he’s shown no signs of slowing down. He looks as good today as he did 10 years ago. I don’t think Peyton fits that mold. I think we’re starting to see the tread wear from his tires.
I fully understand that Peyton has never had exceptional physical skills and the trait that makes him great is his football intellect. He’s one of those players who knows his opponents’ assignments better than the opponent. But I don’t think he’ll be able to get by on his superior intellect anymore. I think age and the wear and tear of over 20 years of collegiate and professional football are beginning to erode his physical skills to a point that we’re going to see him struggle a lot more than we’re used to seeing. I think he’s at the point where he can no longer execute as efficiently as he has in the past. And I’m not talking about a slight regression. I’m expecting a very noticeable decline in his performance. I don’t think he tops 3,500 yards this year and I can see him finishing with a TD total in the low 20s.
Those numbers may sound fine but keep in mind that Manning has easily eclipsed 4,000 yards passing in every season since 2005. He’s only failed to reach the 4,000 yard mark twice in his entire career. And his career low in TD passes is 26; set way back in his first and second seasons in the league. So finishing in the low 20s would be an eyebrow raiser. But it’s exactly what I see happening.
I think we saw an indication of this last year over the last month of the season. Some will argue that a quad injury, which reportedly happened in the December 10 game against San Diego, was the reason behind Manning’s lackluster finish to the season. But I’m not buying that as the sole reason. After all, we’ve witnessed Tony Romo perform at high levels while nursing broken ribs and a punctured lung. So as far as I’m concerned a quad injury does not excuse Manning’s performance in those final 5 games of the 2014 season.
Over the last 5 games of the season including the playoff game versus Indianapolis, Manning finished the season with a total of 4 TD passes and 6 interceptions. The opponents in those five games: Buffalo, San Diego, Cincinnati, Oakland, and Indianapolis. Hardly a murderous row of defenses.
The Peyton of old would throw 4 TD passes in a single game and would take 10 weeks to amass 6 interceptions.
I will also add that it’s not just the ho-hum stats that Manning produced down the stretch of the 2014 season that has influenced my opinion. Peyton just did not pass the eyeball test during those five games. He looked like a punch-drunk, 38 year old QB out there.
The second factor that leads me to believe we’re going to see a less impactful Peyton Manning is the changes the Broncos made in their coaching staff.
The arrival of Gary Kubiak (Head Coach) and Rick Dennison (Offensive Coordinator) signal a change in offensive philosophy. When you consider Manning’s lack of post season success; his age; the lackluster finish to the 2014 season; and the aforementioned coaching staff changes, logic says that major philosophical changes are imminent.
Manning has pretty much been running his own offensive scheme for the better part of the last decade. He’s been allowed the leeway to run the offense as he sees fit. I think this changes drastically in 2015. As it should. Because as we all know, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Another nugget to consider is this. John Elway was in a similar situation as Peyton. At the backend of his career Elway deferred to the running game and it helped him close out his career with back to back championships. I think that personal experience is another reason that Elway will push for changes in the offense, because Elway has literally been there and done that.
The chart below gives you an idea of how the Kubiak/Dennison prefer a more balanced attack. Looking back at an 8 year snap shot of their coaching careers there is only a +30 difference in pass attempts compared to rush attempts in those 8 years.
Offenses led by the Kubiak-Dennison combo
Now take a look at Manning’s numbers over the last 5 seasons that he’s played. With Manning running the offense to his liking, his teams average over 200 more passing attempts than rushing attempts per season.
Peyton Manning led offenses
I doubt Kubiak and Dennison will allow that disparity to continue. Especially when Peyton begins to struggle as I expect.
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But for now I’m sticking with the eye test and just calling it how I see it.
by 1bigfan13
DallasCowboysCentral staff writer
Hot Take up front: I think Peyton Manning will take a significant step back this year. I believe his final numbers will look more like 3,300 yards passing, 23 TD, 20 INT rather than the 4,700 yards, 35 TD, 15 INT numbers that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from him. Additionally, I don’t think the Broncos make the playoffs this year. I see them missing out with an 8-8 record.
The Rundown: Heading into the 2015 NFL season the Denver Broncos are seen by most as one of the top three favorites to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 50. Most of the belief in the Broncos is due to the blind faith placed in Peyton Manning. Manning has justifiably earned this benefit of the doubt. In most cases he has somewhat met those expectations by routinely leading his teams to division titles while amassing passing statistics typically only seen in Madden video games. That being said, I think this is the year that Manning takes a significant step backwards and as a result I see the Broncos missing the playoffs.
The two main reasons that lead me to believe we’ll see a less productive Peyton than we’re used to seeing are his age and the change in offensive schemes.
Age is the factor that carries the most weight in my assessment of the 2015 version of Peyton Manning. Manning is 39 years old. It’s common for the athletic skills of athletes to regress once they hit their mid to upper 30s. Obviously there are some exceptions as some people age more gracefully than others. See Tom Brady. He’s 38 but he’s shown no signs of slowing down. He looks as good today as he did 10 years ago. I don’t think Peyton fits that mold. I think we’re starting to see the tread wear from his tires.
I fully understand that Peyton has never had exceptional physical skills and the trait that makes him great is his football intellect. He’s one of those players who knows his opponents’ assignments better than the opponent. But I don’t think he’ll be able to get by on his superior intellect anymore. I think age and the wear and tear of over 20 years of collegiate and professional football are beginning to erode his physical skills to a point that we’re going to see him struggle a lot more than we’re used to seeing. I think he’s at the point where he can no longer execute as efficiently as he has in the past. And I’m not talking about a slight regression. I’m expecting a very noticeable decline in his performance. I don’t think he tops 3,500 yards this year and I can see him finishing with a TD total in the low 20s.
Those numbers may sound fine but keep in mind that Manning has easily eclipsed 4,000 yards passing in every season since 2005. He’s only failed to reach the 4,000 yard mark twice in his entire career. And his career low in TD passes is 26; set way back in his first and second seasons in the league. So finishing in the low 20s would be an eyebrow raiser. But it’s exactly what I see happening.
I think we saw an indication of this last year over the last month of the season. Some will argue that a quad injury, which reportedly happened in the December 10 game against San Diego, was the reason behind Manning’s lackluster finish to the season. But I’m not buying that as the sole reason. After all, we’ve witnessed Tony Romo perform at high levels while nursing broken ribs and a punctured lung. So as far as I’m concerned a quad injury does not excuse Manning’s performance in those final 5 games of the 2014 season.
Over the last 5 games of the season including the playoff game versus Indianapolis, Manning finished the season with a total of 4 TD passes and 6 interceptions. The opponents in those five games: Buffalo, San Diego, Cincinnati, Oakland, and Indianapolis. Hardly a murderous row of defenses.
The Peyton of old would throw 4 TD passes in a single game and would take 10 weeks to amass 6 interceptions.
I will also add that it’s not just the ho-hum stats that Manning produced down the stretch of the 2014 season that has influenced my opinion. Peyton just did not pass the eyeball test during those five games. He looked like a punch-drunk, 38 year old QB out there.
The second factor that leads me to believe we’re going to see a less impactful Peyton Manning is the changes the Broncos made in their coaching staff.
The arrival of Gary Kubiak (Head Coach) and Rick Dennison (Offensive Coordinator) signal a change in offensive philosophy. When you consider Manning’s lack of post season success; his age; the lackluster finish to the 2014 season; and the aforementioned coaching staff changes, logic says that major philosophical changes are imminent.
Manning has pretty much been running his own offensive scheme for the better part of the last decade. He’s been allowed the leeway to run the offense as he sees fit. I think this changes drastically in 2015. As it should. Because as we all know, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.
Another nugget to consider is this. John Elway was in a similar situation as Peyton. At the backend of his career Elway deferred to the running game and it helped him close out his career with back to back championships. I think that personal experience is another reason that Elway will push for changes in the offense, because Elway has literally been there and done that.
The chart below gives you an idea of how the Kubiak/Dennison prefer a more balanced attack. Looking back at an 8 year snap shot of their coaching careers there is only a +30 difference in pass attempts compared to rush attempts in those 8 years.
Offenses led by the Kubiak-Dennison combo
Now take a look at Manning’s numbers over the last 5 seasons that he’s played. With Manning running the offense to his liking, his teams average over 200 more passing attempts than rushing attempts per season.
Peyton Manning led offenses
I doubt Kubiak and Dennison will allow that disparity to continue. Especially when Peyton begins to struggle as I expect.
If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. But for now I’m sticking with the eye test and just calling it how I see it.
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