Bob Sturm: Analyzing one ‘luck’ component that was a key to Cowboys’ 2014 success

[Chocolate Lab]

So we just had a roster full of extra sturdy players? Seriously?

I'll buy that our OL in particular has a better chance of staying healthy because it's so young, but there's still a ton of luck involved. Otherwise, what are we doing that other NFL teams aren't?

 

[Cowboysrock55]

So we just had a roster full of extra sturdy players? Seriously?

I'll buy that our OL in particular has a better chance of staying healthy because it's so young, but there's still a ton of luck involved. Otherwise, what are we doing that other NFL teams aren't?

Dez Bryant has always been sturdy. He gets nagging injuries but the dude always plays through them. Same thing goes for Jason Witten. Romo pretty much had his standard injuries that he gets every season. The O-lineman like you mentioned never get hurt. Tyron Smith for example is just a freak of nature. Again, who uncharacteristically had a healthy season? Terrance Williams? A guy who has never missed a game since joining the NFL. So really, since the article claims we were exceptionally lucky on offense, outside of Murray whose season was out of the ordinary? Do you think the health of players is just a totally random occurrence?

 

[Clay_Allison]

The organization has talked a lot about not spending on players over 30 in the last couple of years. That contributes to "luck".

 

[L.T. Fan]

Balance and game control was absolutely the key last year. Not sure how a back who has been on our roster for years is pointed to as the main reason for that.

A quick glimpse of the number of carries will clear it up for you. That would apply to any productive RB.

 

[Cotton]

The organization has talked a lot about not spending on players over 30 in the last couple of years. That contributes to "luck".

True, youth had a lot to do with how healthy we stayed for sure.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

A quick glimpse of the number of carries will clear it up for you. That would apply to any productive RB.

So it wasn't the RB, it was the number of carries. Thanks, it was always clear to me. Glad you're on the same page now as well.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

Dez Bryant has always been sturdy. He gets nagging injuries but the dude always plays through them. Same thing goes for Jason Witten. Romo pretty much had his standard injuries that he gets every season. The O-lineman like you mentioned never get hurt. Tyron Smith for example is just a freak of nature. Again, who uncharacteristically had a healthy season? Terrance Williams? A guy who has never missed a game since joining the NFL. So really, since the article claims we were exceptionally lucky on offense, outside of Murray whose season was out of the ordinary? Do you think the health of players is just a totally random occurrence?

Pretty much, yes. Every team does pretty much the same things with their strength and conditioning. If we had all the answers, we'd be exceptionally healthy every year, wouldn't we? Why were we so much healthier last year compared to the three years prior if good fortune weren't a huge part of it?

I'm shocked you could even argue this, except that you love to argue. It's okay to admit that some years you get better breaks than others.

 

[peplaw06]

Romo's injuries have been "standard"? Wtf?

I'm uncomfortable talking about injuries like we coach against them or something. Injuries are just a matter of happenstance most of the time.

 

[L.T. Fan]

So it wasn't the RB, it was the number of carries. Thanks, it was always clear to me. Glad you're on the same page now as well.

Don't overlook the RB. Not many could have accomplished that feat.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Pretty much, yes. Every team does pretty much the same things with their strength and conditioning. If we had all the answers, we'd be exceptionally healthy every year, wouldn't we?

So you don't consider Sean Lee injury prone? You're basically saying he has the exact same chances of getting hurt as any other LBer? Because that's the implication when you say that a team being healthy is purely luck. I'd say instead that we built our offense around generally healthy players. These aren't all the same players from 2013. Hell most of our defense was completely different last year. We shed injury prone guys like Ratliff and replaced them with younger guys.

I'm really not trying to start an argument over it. I just think if you build your team around guys that are constantly injured your team is going to have injury problems year in and year out. If you build your team around guys that never seem to miss a game, you're going to have a pretty damn healthy team. Is it that hard to understand?

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Romo's injuries have been "standard"? Wtf?
Injuries are just a matter of happenstance most of the time.

Sean Lee must just be the most unlucky MFer I've ever seen then. I'm not talking about training injuries out of a player or coaching injuries out of a guy. I'm talking about players being inherently less likely to miss game time then other players.

 

[ravidubey]

So we just had a roster full of extra sturdy players? Seriously?

I'll buy that our OL in particular has a better chance of staying healthy because it's so young, but there's still a ton of luck involved. Otherwise, what are we doing that other NFL teams aren't?

Dallas was fortunate to have remained healthy outside of Free and Romo, but it's no coincidence that they are two of the oldest offensive players or that Dallas was least affected because the offense has one of the youngest rosters in the NFL.

Romo, Witten, and Free were the only starters over 30 last year. Here are current ages or potential 2015 starters, including Murray and Parnell for comparison. Subtracting a year, that's one young-as-shit team. If the defense had some stouter DT's I believe there would have been fewer injuries on that side of the ball too.

*Romo - 35
Witten - 33
*Free - 31
Clutts - 30
Parnell- 28
Murray - 27
Bryant - 26
Leary -26
Beasley - 26
Williams - 25
Street - 24
Smith - 24
Frederick - 24
Martin - 24
Randle - 23
Collins - 21

 

[Cotton]

Pretty much, yes. Every team does pretty much the same things with their strength and conditioning. If we had all the answers, we'd be exceptionally healthy every year, wouldn't we? Why were we so much healthier last year compared to the three years prior if good fortune weren't a huge part of it?

I'm shocked you could even argue this, except that you love to argue. It's okay to admit that some years you get better breaks than others.

Yeah, we were very lucky last year, but I think some of the youth movement the team has headed towards has helped the odds a bit.

 

[Simpleton]

I will put an asterisk on it. It was not a 12-4 team in the truest sense. We had a lot of things break our way that made it possible.

If you think that was not a "perfect storm" season, get a grip.

We can build on it. But it was certainly not a foundation season any more than the last time we had a playoff run into the second round.

There was absolutely nothing flukey about last season, except for perhaps the fact that we were very healthy, but that isn't something I'd call "flukey".

We lost 4 games, basically all of which were due to Romo being injured. He clearly wasn't 100% against the 49ers to start the year, he got injured half way through the Skins game, he missed the Arizona game and again he was clearly not 100% against the Eagles on short rest.

Sure, we won some close games that we could've easily lost but so does literally every other team in the league, literally every single year. How about the fact that we won 8 of our 12 games by double digits, along with straight up dominating the Seahawks despite the score. We were completely dominant down the stretch with 4 straight double digit victories to end the season, a few of which were by 20-30 points.

There were several occasions where we were down double digits and fought back to win in impressive fashion, against the Rams, Giants and in the playoffs against Detroit.

That isn't a fluke, that is a damn impressive season, probably the most impressive since 1995. Sure, things came together for us where we found our identity with the running game, the defense played with great energy, masking their deficiencies, and everybody bought in, but that's not a fluke, that's what happens every year on very good to great teams.

They have to go out and rebuild that identity, play with that focus and a chip on their shoulder again, but that doesn't mean last year was a fluke if they don't. And if the team struggles because the running game struggles, that doesn't make last year a fluke either, it just means we made a horrible personnel decision in doing literally nothing to replace Murray.

 

[peplaw06]

Sean Lee must just be the most unlucky MFer I've ever seen then. I'm not talking about training injuries out of a player or coaching injuries out of a guy. I'm talking about players being inherently less likely to miss game time then other players.

Some players are less careful with their bodies than others. And sometimes a player has a recurrence of an injury or a chronic injury that keeps coming back. But usually the label "injury prone" is an overreaction. Sean Lee may be one of those who plays with abandon and gets injured often. But most people thought DeMarco was "injury prone" before last season.

It's a violent game. The idea that you could predict injuries or health is ridiculous. At the same time, I think it's a lame excuse to blame a team's poor performance on injuries. They're a part of a game, and every team has to deal with injury to some degree.

 

[Simpleton]

Some players are less careful with their bodies than others. And sometimes a player has a recurrence of an injury or a chronic injury that keeps coming back. But usually the label "injury prone" is an overreaction. Sean Lee may be one of those who plays with abandon and gets injured often. But most people thought DeMarco was "injury prone" before last season.

It's a violent game. The idea that you could predict injuries or health is ridiculous. At the same time, I think it's a lame excuse to blame a team's poor performance on injuries. They're a part of a game, and every team has to deal with injury to some degree.

Injuries aren't predictable but there's nothing wrong with being aware of the reality of injuries relative to a team's performance in any given game or season. If we had as many injuries last year as we did in 2012 or 2013 would we have won 12 games?

Nope, nor would we have gone 8-8 in all likelihood if we were as healthy as last year.

Some teams are healthier than others in any given season and that allows them to play closer to their potential, generally speaking, that's just the reality of the NFL, no reason to ignore it really. No reason to use it as a crutch necessarily either though.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

So you don't consider Sean Lee injury prone? You're basically saying he has the exact same chances of getting hurt as any other LBer? Because that's the implication when you say that a team being healthy is purely luck. I'd say instead that we built our offense around generally healthy players. These aren't all the same players from 2013. Hell most of our defense was completely different last year. We shed injury prone guys like Ratliff and replaced them with younger guys.

I'm really not trying to start an argument over it. I just think if you build your team around guys that are constantly injured your team is going to have injury problems year in and year out. If you build your team around guys that never seem to miss a game, you're going to have a pretty damn healthy team. Is it that hard to understand?

I don't know why you're focused on one player when we're talking about team injuries. Maybe injury prones like Lee are at one tail of the bell curve and players like Witten are at the other, but most players are in the middle.

But I don't agree that we somehow just found 22 durable players. If that's the case, why didn't we do that in prior years? Why don't all teams do it?

It's an incredibly violent game, and any player can get hurt at any time, even young ones. Tyron Smith and Zack Martin may be young studs, but if a 330-pounder falls on their knee at the right spot with enough force, the knee is going out. If the same thing happened literally a few inches away, they might be fine or just have a sprain. That's luck.

And BTW, I didn't say it was "purely" luck. But luck is a big, big factor.

 

[townsend]

It feels like some weird imposter's syndrome. After a dominant season where we overcame nearly every flaw this team has had over the decade (fading down the stretch, inconsistent run game, defense giving up key plays at the end of the game, weak offensive line play, shitting the bed against division rivals with the playoffs on the line).

Now there has to be brand new criteria made up. If things break poorly in 2015 we could miss the playoffs. But that would be the fluke. This is a team with way way way too much talent to not be successful over the next few years.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

It's a violent game. The idea that you could predict injuries or health is ridiculous.

I think you're just plain wrong on this. There is a whole genetic component to this that you just completely ignore. Some guys bodies are just built to withstand a beating better then other bodies. If you're telling me that Witten who hasn't missed a game in 8+ seasons is just as likely to get hurt as Murray next year, then I'd say you're bat shit crazy. Sure there is always a chance a player could stay healthy all year. Just like there is a chance a healthy player could get hurt. But those odds aren't the same for every player. Murray staying healthy most of the season last year (Remember he did miss time with an injury) was THE fluke.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I don't know why you're focused on one player when we're talking about team injuries.

Because teams are made up of many individual players. Now I have been focusing mostly on offense because as was pointed out we certainly had injuries on defense. You mention a guy falling on a knee. But the fact of the matter is that fall for one player may tear something. For another player it may be a mild sprain. People's genetics and bodies are that much different. It's not luck when you have a roster full of guys who have been able to stay healthy most of their career. It's called building a roster the right way. If you build your roster with broken down Jay Ratliffs your team is going to have injuries. I refuse to label things like that as "luck" as though personnel decisions play no part in this.