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Best draft QBs, RBs, WRs at every trait


Sharon Katz

Which players in the 2015 draft class are the best at what they do? Based only on college stats (no scouts involved), below is a look at the "best of the draft" in various position-specific traits among quarterbacks, running backs and wide receivers.

Although scouts have the luxury of information not always present in statistics, there are numbers that add value to the evaluation process. The key is finding the right numbers that control for factors such as the type of college offense run, strength of opponents faced and surrounding talent.

Using smarter stats, we will pinpoint the best quarterback, running back and wide receiver in each of the position-specific traits identified by Scouts Inc. in their player evaluations.


Jameis Winston led five second-half comebacks last season at Florida State. AP Photo/Doug Benc
The quarterback who is best at ...

Accuracy: Marcus Mariota, Oregon -- Mariota completed 68 percent of his passes (fifth in the FBS) with an average pass distance of 8.8 yards past the line of scrimmage. Accounting for the distance of his passes and discarding drops and throwaways, Mariota is the most accurate quarterback in the 2015 class according to a metric called standardized completion percentage. This metric is a truer measure of quarterback accuracy than regular completion percentage and allows quarterbacks from varying college offenses to be compared more fairly.


Clutch: Jameis Winston, Florida State -- This category is called "mental makeup" in the Scouts Inc. draft evaluations, but that's an impossible trait to measure with statistics. In looking only at Winston's on-field performance, he has the mental makeup to bounce back from mistakes and lead his team to victory better than any other player in the class. In his career, Winston led five second-half comebacks and had an 82.3 total QBR (out of 100) when trailing in the second half. Although many of his first-half mistakes put Florida State in a hole, no player played better in the second half during last year's regular season.

Arm strength: Bryce Petty, Baylor -- In the last two seasons, Petty had 31 touchdowns on passes thrown 25 yards or longer, 16 more than any other Power 5 quarterback. On passes of 40 yards or longer, he was a whopping 10-of-16 with seven touchdowns and no interceptions in his career. Although Petty's overall deep accuracy can be improved, he has unique arm strength that allows him to get the ball downfield.

Mobility: Marcus Mariota, Oregon -- As evident by his 4.52 40 time, Mariota has elite speed for a quarterback. Although he could improve at avoiding sacks (taking a career-high 31 in 2014), he has the elusiveness to avoid the rush and make plays with his feet. In his career, Mariota scrambled for more than 1,000 yards and averaged 9.3 yards per scramble. He gained a first down on 47 percent of those scrambles (the Power 5 average is 31 percent). Brett Hundley, who was also considered for this category, gained a first down on 30 percent of his scrambles and took 59 more sacks than Mariota in the last three years.


Nebraska running back Ameer Abdullah rushed for more than 1,000 yards before initial contact last season. AP Photo/Brynn Anderson
The running back who is best at ...

Vision/patience: Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska -- Abdullah was one of three Power 5 players to gain at least 700 yards inside the tackles and at least 700 yards outside of the tackles last season (Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon and Pitt's James Conner were the others). Further confirming his vision, he was one of seven Power 5 players to gain at least 1,000 yards before initial contact, as he averaged 3.9 yards before contact per rush last season (the Power 5 average is 2.5).

Agility/acceleration: Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin -- When Gordon finds a hole, there is no stopping him. Last year he had 35 rushes of 20 yards or longer, nine more than any other FBS player in a single season in the last decade. Want another "wow" stat? Gordon had more 20-yard rushes last season than 117 of the 125 FBS teams. Because of this acceleration and breakaway speed, Gordon set the NCAA record for career yards per rush (7.8) among players with at least 415 rushes.

Power/balance: Todd Gurley, Georgia -- Gurley averaged 3.9 yards after contact per rush last season before his suspension/injury, best among Power 5 players (minimum 50 carries). He is not a player who is easily taken down; Gurley gained more than 1,500 of his career 3,285 rushing yards after contact and led all Power 5 players over the last three years in yards per rush (1.6) after being hit behind the line of scrimmage.

Pass-catching: Jay Ajayi, Boise State -- Ajayi was the only player in the country last season with at least 1,500 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards. He led all draft-eligible receivers with 50 receptions and averaged 10.7 yards per reception. No player in this year's draft is more well-rounded as a rusher and receiver than Ajayi.


Louisville receiver DeVante Parker finished in the top 10 in the nation in completions of 20 yards or longer last season. Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
The wide receiver who is best at ...

Breakaway speed: Breshad Perriman, UCF -- Perriman isn't solely on this list because he ran a 4.24 40-yard dash at his pro day -- but it was taken into consideration. He averaged 19.5 yards per reception in his career, including 33.3 yards per touchdown, meaning he was able to convert his speed into big plays.

Ball skills: DeVante Parker, Louisville -- Parker has the lowest career drop percentage (3.2 percent) of any of the top 15 wide receiver prospects. The stats also show he is among the best in the class at tracking deep balls; he ranked among the top 10 in the nation in completions of 20 yards or longer last season despite missing seven games with an injury.

Big-play ability: Devin Smith, Ohio State -- As was showcased throughout the College Football Playoff, Smith was the best deep receiver in college football last season. He led the nation in receptions (17) and touchdowns (10) on passes thrown 20 yards or longer and excelled with multiple quarterbacks throwing him the ball.

Competitiveness: Amari Cooper, Alabama -- It's hard to define a stat for competitiveness, but there is no doubt that Cooper was a gamer. In the biggest games he showed up, averaging 127.4 receiving yards in the eight Iron Bowls, SEC Championships and bowl games in his career. Another measure of competitiveness is the ability to gain tough yards, and no draft-eligible prospect gained more yards after the catch than Cooper last season.

Sharon Katz is an analytics writer for ESPN Stats & Information.

 

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Jason La Canfora
CBS Sports NFL Insider




The top 32 in the NFL Draft: Beasley, Dupree barely make the cut
April 28, 2015 1:42 pm ET

Jason LaCanfora


I am putting off doing a proper mock draft as long as possible. It's an annual fight I wage -- understandably my editors and superiors would prefer I weigh in on these 32 picks sooner -- but much of the most trustworthy information (as much as there is this time of year) isn't readily available until deep into draft week.

So as I continue putting off the mock -- delaying my own inevitable mocking once it's posted -- I'm looking for other ways to approach the pre-draft conundrum to hone in on which players really stand the best chance of hearing their names called Thursday night. I worked closely with a top evaluator to put this list together.

And, trust me, it was anything but easy.

Some teams have as few as 14 to 16 players graded as true first-round picks, and opinions are all over the map even on who merits real consideration among the top 10. Heck, the two kids most likely to go first and second overall are two of the more polarizing players in the draft because they play the quarterback position. There are myriad questions, whether they be character or scheme fit.

This scout had 24 players who could deserve first-round grades, when accounting for character and off-field issues and not only their production, projections, metrics, health, etc. So getting to 32 took some back and forth, and it was really only possible once allowing for red-flag prospects to join the group.

Even though, however, I can tell you Vic Beasley (in many top fives) and Bud Dupree (a fast riser in many mock top 10s) were not players this evaluator believed deserved a real first-round grade and made this list after some mulling. Safe to say this list of pass rushers includes some big gambles -- especially after issues in recent years with the likes of tweeners like Barkevious Mingo and Dion Jordan. Teams vary greatly about who is legit or a potential bust because of lack of weight, strength, sufficient pass rushing moves or all of the above.

For the purposes of this exercise, I's breaking the 32 players down by position, and then, after that, put in an additional category of the players who didn't originally garner the evaluator's status as being first-round worthy, but added to reach 32. That final group includes many guys with character concerns. The players are listed in these groups in the order in which the scout believed they deserve to be.

Quarterbacks (2)

Jameis Winston (Florida State): "Based on film, he's the best quarterback in this draft, for sure. But he would scare the hell out of me off the field. I probably wouldn't take him because of that, but Tampa has kind of boxed themselves in."

Marcus Mariota (Oregon): "He's a running back as quarterback. He has to have time to develop but in the right hands he could be special. He's a great kid. He's got all the tools."

Running backs (2)

Todd Gurley (Georgia): "The ACL doesn't really scare me that much. We've seen guys come back from that stuff in college. He's an explosive runner. Without the injury he could be top 10."

Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin): The evaluator noted that Big Ten running backs -- especially bigger backs -- haven't exactly lit the world on fire in recent years, and offered mild trepidation about that, but also noted the kid ran for over seven yards per carry.

Wide Receiver (4)

Kevin White (West Virginia): "Game breaker. Could be a dominant returner too."

Amari Cooper (Alabama): "Not much not to like about him. Has it all."

DeVante Parker (Louisville): "Really uses his basketball skills. High points the ball. Great catch radius. Great speed to run after the catch."

Nelson Agholor (USC): "I really think he's pretty similar to Cooper, just a little smaller. Good route runner. Good speed."

Offensive Linemen (7)

D.J. Humphries (Florida): "A lot of people would have the kid from Iowa here, but I prefer a left tackle. This is the best left tackle in this draft."

Brandon Scherff (Iowa): "For me, he's a guard. But those guys make big money now, too. You can justify taking a guard in the top 10 now."

Cameron Erving (Florida State): "I see him as a center. He could start at tackle for a lot of teams, I'm sure, but I think he's at his best inside."

La'el Collins (LSU): "I'm giving him every shot to be my left tackle. In the back of my mind I know he can shift inside if that doesn't work out."

Andrus Peat (Stanford): "Has a bad body and I wish I saw him compete more. Definitely not a brawler. I don't really love him, but he's a left tackle. They're going to go. This one might go too high."

Ereck Flowers (Miami, Fla.): "Pure right tackle, I don't see him on the left side."

Cedric Ogbuehi (Texas A&M): "Might have been the best tackle in this draft before his injury. Probably a top 10 pick then."

Defensive Ends (2)

Mario Edwards, Jr. (Florida State): "Love this kid. Can kick inside if you need him to. Big, big part of a team that lost two games in two years."

Owamagbe Odighizuwa (UCLA): "I know everyone says they're down on him, but I don't buy it. Too much athleticism there. I see him in the first round. Looked good against some good tackles. He can be a rush end linebacker or a five-technique [lineman]."

Defensive Tackles (3)

Leonard Williams (USC): "Best player in the draft by far. Should be the No. 1 pick."


Leonard Williams stands alone at the top of this draft class. (Getty Images) Leonard Williams stands alone at the top of this draft class. (Getty Images)

Danny Shelton (Washington): "If you want a nose, he's your guy. Reminds me of B.J. Raji when he came out."

Eddie Goldman (Florida State): "Big man who can be very versatile. Stands out in a class that doesn't have too many kids who can play like he does inside."

Outside Linebackers (3)

Dante Fowler Jr. (Florida): "He's the real deal. I don't really have any concerns with this kid at all."


Dante Fowler looks like a double-digit sack guy. (Getty Images) Dante Fowler looks like a double-digit sack guy. (Getty Images)


Randy Gregory (Nebraska): "He is the best pass rusher in this draft. If it's not for the other issues, he's gone in the top five picks. People aren't as worried about the pot stuff, as much as it is some of decision making."

Shane Ray (Missouri): "Natural pass rusher. Knows how to get to the quarterback. He has so much passion for the game. He and Fowler are the most passionate players about football in this draft." This conversation took place before Ray's arrest for marijuana possession Monday; that obviously won't help his stock.

Cornerbacks (5)

Trae Waynes (Michigan State): "Most complete corner in this draft for me."

Kevin Johnson (Wake Forest): "Very well-rounded. I could understand if some people might like him more than Waynes. I don't. But I think it's pretty close."

Marcus Peters (Washington): "If you take out all the red flags, this is the top guy at this position. But from what we've heard about him, who he hangs out with, the problems he had with the coaches there, I wouldn't take him, but somebody in the first round will."

Byron Jones (Connecticut): "Freak athlete with good film. I think he's a very good cover corner and the worst case is you have to flip him to free safety if not."

Eric Rowe (Utah): "Little bit think, but a very solid corner. He can cover. I like this kid. Back end of the first round isn't too high to me in this draft."

At this point, we had 28 names that the evaluator was pretty comfortable with. And I threw a bunch more at him and we went back and forth before he added these final four to the group to reach 32, in this order:

LSU CB Jalen Collins: "Another kid with some off-field stuff, but I love his size. Plays tough. Would have liked to have seen more big plays."

Vic Beasley, OLB (Clemson): "You know what I think about him. One-year wonder. I don't buy him. Put on a lot of water weight but he can never play at that weight. I don't like him and I don't have a first-round grade on him, but I guess I don't have 32 players better than him, either." This evaluator mentioned Dion Jordan a few times in his comments about Beasley.

Kentucky OLB/DE Bud Dupree: "One-trick pony. I see him getting all of this attention and buzz, and I can't figure it out. I don't see it. He doesn't make enough plays for me."

Oregon DL Arik Armstead: "He gets ripped because he doesn't have sacks, but he's very raw. He improved a lot last year. You're projecting here, but at pick 32 that's what you're trying to figure out. I like him more than some other people seem to."

We'll see if all 32 make it into my mock. Most undoubtedly will, though need, trades, etc., surely will shake things up. Based on what I've heard from other evaluators, I'd have guys like Virginia outside linebacker Eli Harold, Oregon tackle Jake Fisher, Alabama safety Landon Collins and receivers Breshad Perriman (Central Florida) and Phillip Dorsett (Miami, Fla.) under strong consideration.

Another offensive lineman or receiver sneaking into that top 32 would not shock me. All things being equal I could see plenty of teams at the back end of the round going with one of those two positions.

 

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Confusing reports emerge about Randy Gregory

Posted by Mike Florio on April 29, 2015, 2:43 PM EDT

In the aftermath of Nebraska pass rusher Randy Gregory’s failed drug test at the Scouting Combine, scuttlebutt emerged in league circles that the other shoe eventually would drop. It apparently now has. And I’m having a hard time making sense of it.

Albert Breer and Ian Rapoport of NFL Media report in a joint item, well, something.

“At least three general managers view him as a top-five talent. But according to more than a dozen coaches, scouts, personnel chiefs and GMs, there is concern about Gregory’s ability to handle the mental rigors of professional football,” Breer and Rapoport write. “And just how far he drops in this week’s draft will likely hinge on the individual psychological profiles (and the results of related testing) put together by each team, according to multiple veteran evaluators. He has been taken off a several team’s draft boards, according to multiple sources.”

There’s no elaboration on why or how Gregory lacks the “ability to handle the mental rigors of professional football.” The entire article, much of which is positive, creates the impression that the writers, editors, and/or lawyers were treading lightly.

Regardless, it leaves the reader with little tangible information that would make Gregory any different from any other man in his early 20s who is preparing to ascend from the college level to the NFL. For many players, there are questions about his ability to handle the mental rigors of professional football.

Earlier today, Jay Glazer of FOX Sports gave a far more dire — but even more vague — assessment of Gregory on The Dan Patrick Show: “I wouldn’t touch him . . . from what teams say . . . there are other issues,” Glazer said, via producer Paul Pabst’s Twitter account.

It’s not clear what those issues are, other than questions about his ability to handle the mental rigors of professional football.

 

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Confusing reports emerge about Randy Gregory

Posted by Mike Florio on April 29, 2015, 2:43 PM EDT

In the aftermath of Nebraska pass rusher Randy Gregory’s failed drug test at the Scouting Combine, scuttlebutt emerged in league circles that the other shoe eventually would drop. It apparently now has. And I’m having a hard time making sense of it.

Albert Breer and Ian Rapoport of NFL Media report in a joint item, well, something.

“At least three general managers view him as a top-five talent. But according to more than a dozen coaches, scouts, personnel chiefs and GMs, there is concern about Gregory’s ability to handle the mental rigors of professional football,” Breer and Rapoport write. “And just how far he drops in this week’s draft will likely hinge on the individual psychological profiles (and the results of related testing) put together by each team, according to multiple veteran evaluators. He has been taken off a several team’s draft boards, according to multiple sources.”

There’s no elaboration on why or how Gregory lacks the “ability to handle the mental rigors of professional football.” The entire article, much of which is positive, creates the impression that the writers, editors, and/or lawyers were treading lightly.

Regardless, it leaves the reader with little tangible information that would make Gregory any different from any other man in his early 20s who is preparing to ascend from the college level to the NFL. For many players, there are questions about his ability to handle the mental rigors of professional football.

Earlier today, Jay Glazer of FOX Sports gave a far more dire — but even more vague — assessment of Gregory on The Dan Patrick Show: “I wouldn’t touch him . . . from what teams say . . . there are other issues,” Glazer said, via producer Paul Pabst’s Twitter account.

It’s not clear what those issues are, other than questions about his ability to handle the mental rigors of professional football.

My understanding has been that Gregory was a great interview for everyone. Now obviously he has some issues with weed but I hadn't heard about any of these other "mental" issues.