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Breaking Down the ‘Boys: Jason Witten’s decline has already started
By Jonathan Bales
jonathan@thedctimes.com
9:01 am on May 20, 2013 | Permalink
Jonathan Bales is a special contributor to SportsDayDFW.com. He’s the founder of The DC Times and writes for DallasCowboys.com and the New York Times. He’s also the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People. He can be reached at jonathan@thedctimes.com.
You can follow him @TheCowboysTimes.
It’s pretty difficult to knock a guy who just broke the single-season record for receptions at his position. Tight end Jason Witten is one heck of a player and a guy anyone would want to have on their team, but he’s actually been in decline for quite some time now.
The Numbers
Yes, Witten hauled in 110 passes in 2012, but that’s due primarily to a massive workload in situations when the Cowboys were forced to throw the football. Of Witten’s 110 receptions, 79 came when the Cowboys were losing and 25 came when the team was tied. That means that Witten caught all of six passes when the Cowboys were winning last year. Six passes!
Bulk stats can be important, but efficiency stats better predict future play. How will Witten perform in 2013 if he sees only 130 targets instead of the career-high 150 he had last season? On a per-catch and per-target basis, Witten actually wasn’t at his best in 2012. His average reception went for just 9.4 yards—a career-low—and he also checked in below seven yards per target. Even on a per-route basis, Witten’s steady decline continued. . .
By Jonathan Bales
jonathan@thedctimes.com
9:01 am on May 20, 2013 | Permalink
Jonathan Bales is a special contributor to SportsDayDFW.com. He’s the founder of The DC Times and writes for DallasCowboys.com and the New York Times. He’s also the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People. He can be reached at jonathan@thedctimes.com.
You can follow him @TheCowboysTimes.
It’s pretty difficult to knock a guy who just broke the single-season record for receptions at his position. Tight end Jason Witten is one heck of a player and a guy anyone would want to have on their team, but he’s actually been in decline for quite some time now.
The Numbers
Yes, Witten hauled in 110 passes in 2012, but that’s due primarily to a massive workload in situations when the Cowboys were forced to throw the football. Of Witten’s 110 receptions, 79 came when the Cowboys were losing and 25 came when the team was tied. That means that Witten caught all of six passes when the Cowboys were winning last year. Six passes!
Bulk stats can be important, but efficiency stats better predict future play. How will Witten perform in 2013 if he sees only 130 targets instead of the career-high 150 he had last season? On a per-catch and per-target basis, Witten actually wasn’t at his best in 2012. His average reception went for just 9.4 yards—a career-low—and he also checked in below seven yards per target. Even on a per-route basis, Witten’s steady decline continued. . .
The truth is that Witten didn’t play any better in 2012 than he did in prior seasons—he was actually slightly worse—but he just saw way more opportunities.
What I LikeThere are obviously a lot of things to love about Witten. He’s an extremely hard worker who will take care of his body to extend his career as long as possible. He’s always going to be in the right position at the right time, so he can still make up for his shortcomings as an athlete.
What I Don’t LikeWhat I don’t like about Witten in 2013 is this graph. . .
What I LikeThere are obviously a lot of things to love about Witten. He’s an extremely hard worker who will take care of his body to extend his career as long as possible. He’s always going to be in the right position at the right time, so he can still make up for his shortcomings as an athlete.
What I Don’t LikeWhat I don’t like about Witten in 2013 is this graph. . .
Tight end is a difficult position to play. Tight ends taking a pounding over the course of their careers, and it shows once they cross 30. Tight end production has historically peaked at age 29, but the typical drop is a steep one. Heading into his age 31 season, Witten is entering a period during which most tight ends have broken down.
2013 Projection
The first thing we need to do to project Witten is determine how many targets he’ll see. His average over the past four seasons has been 130, and he’ll probably fall just below that range in 2013. If Witten catches 70 percent of, say, 125 targets—not unrealistic considering he hauled in 72.5 percent over the past four seasons—we’re looking at 88 receptions. While Witten will probably improve upon the 9.4 YPR he totaled in 2012, he’s simply not very explosive anymore. At 10.0 YPR, Witten would total 880 receiving yards this season.
For whatever reason, Witten has never been very efficient in the red zone. He’s converted only 5.5 percent of his career receptions into scores, and that number could actually drop with Gavin Escobar in town. When all is said and done, Witten should score somewhere in the neighborhood of four touchdowns.
2013 Projection
The first thing we need to do to project Witten is determine how many targets he’ll see. His average over the past four seasons has been 130, and he’ll probably fall just below that range in 2013. If Witten catches 70 percent of, say, 125 targets—not unrealistic considering he hauled in 72.5 percent over the past four seasons—we’re looking at 88 receptions. While Witten will probably improve upon the 9.4 YPR he totaled in 2012, he’s simply not very explosive anymore. At 10.0 YPR, Witten would total 880 receiving yards this season.
For whatever reason, Witten has never been very efficient in the red zone. He’s converted only 5.5 percent of his career receptions into scores, and that number could actually drop with Gavin Escobar in town. When all is said and done, Witten should score somewhere in the neighborhood of four touchdowns.
[*=left]Final Projection: 88 receptions, 880 yards, 4 TD
