Archer: Cowboys' numbers game works better in free agency

[Cotton]

Cowboys' numbers game works better in free agency
January, 19, 2015

By Todd Archer | ESPNDallas.com

IRVING, Texas -- As your mind wanders in free agency to visions of Ndamukong Suh or Jason Pierre-Paul or Darrelle Revis joining the Dallas Cowboys as some sort of final piece to their Super Bowl puzzle, take heed of Jerry Jones' words last week.

"Can two do more than one?" Jones said. "In some cases relative to dollars, can five do what one does?"

Jones is not talking about two premier players. He is talking about getting two players for the price it might cost for a great player.

The Cowboys worked it that way in 2014.

They didn't want to keep DeMarcus Ware with a $16 million salary-cap figure. They weren't willing to offer Ware a smaller deal. They thought his best days were behind him. The Denver Broncos quickly scooped up Ware with a three-year, $30 million deal with $20 million guaranteed.

Ware had a cap figure of $9.666 million in 2014 and had 10 sacks.

The Cowboys went with the numbers' approach in replacing Ware. They signed Jeremy Mincey to a two-year deal. They kept Anthony Spencer on a one-year deal. Combined with George Selvie, they combined to count $3.771 million against the cap and combined for 9.5 sacks.

So it was basically the same production at nearly $6 million in savings. In theory, the Cowboys were able to allocate dollars elsewhere, like locking up Tyron Smith to a long-term deal. Whenever a team thinks it's one player away from a Super Bowl, they make a mistake. Charles Haley was more the exception than the rule when the Cowboys traded for him, but that also came before the salary cap.

So when you start wondering about Suh or Pierre-Paul or Revis, shoot a little lower and remember two -- or three -- is better than one.

"If anything this year showed me that with the numbers [it works]," Jones said. "Now anytime you go too far in excess of theory, then you're going to get out of bounds. Everything has its moderation. But in general, loading up big-time on a player in an area that really requires just to some degree good solid intense consistent play, that might be not the way to go."

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I agree with this for the most part. I don't know if you can just conglomerate 3 players and add their stats together like that though. I think you need to look at production on a per snap basis. I mean Selvie, Mincey and Spencer combined probably played a whole bunch more snaps them Ware. To me the object is getting the most production out of a pass rusher per snap they play in a game and then rotate them accordingly.

In general I don't like the idea of throwing out a mega contract in free agency to player. It just rarely seems to work out. The contracts that seem to work out much better are the ones a notch below that.

 

[Angrymesscan]

I agree with this for the most part. I don't know if you can just conglomerate 3 players and add their stats together like that though. I think you need to look at production on a per snap basis. I mean Selvie, Mincey and Spencer combined probably played a whole bunch more snaps them Ware. To me the object is getting the most production out of a pass rusher per snap they play in a game and then rotate them accordingly.

In general I don't like the idea of throwing out a mega contract in free agency to player. It just rarely seems to work out. The contracts that seem to work out much better are the ones a notch below that.

There's also a finite number of roster spots, if you're using three instead of one, that's two spots you can't use elsewhere.

 

[dallen]

Who in the hell is Jerry getting this from? Intelligent things are coming out of his mouth and I know he didn't come up with these thoughts on his own

 

[Cowboysrock55]

There's also a finite number of roster spots, if you're using three instead of one, that's two spots you can't use elsewhere.

Yeah, I don't mind that so much with a position like D-line where you want to rotate 6-8 guys into a game anyway. This numbers thing on the other hand doesn't really work on positions where you don't want to rotate players in. I don't care if you have 4 ok guards, they will never be as good as having 2 stud guards. Because you only play 2 guys at the position most of the time.

 

[Clay_Allison]

I agree with this approach to Free Agency. Guys who are some combo of young and cheap are my usual favorite targets (note: this means Spencer can walk). Build some good, solid depth there and go after your star players in the draft.

That said, I wouldn't mind signing JPP in the hopes that Marinelli can work the same miracles with him as he worked on Simeon Rice.

 

[Genghis Khan]

I agree with this for the most part. I don't know if you can just conglomerate 3 players and add their stats together like that though. I think you need to look at production on a per snap basis. I mean Selvie, Mincey and Spencer combined probably played a whole bunch more snaps them Ware. To me the object is getting the most production out of a pass rusher per snap they play in a game and then rotate them accordingly.

In general I don't like the idea of throwing out a mega contract in free agency to player. It just rarely seems to work out. The contracts that seem to work out much better are the ones a notch below that.

I completely agree. Except most of the time big dollar free agents don't work out because many free agents are either way overrated or past their prime.

Suh is an exception to both of those caveats.

 

[ravidubey]

Who in the hell is Jerry getting this from? Intelligent things are coming out of his mouth and I know he didn't come up with these thoughts on his own

The pain of twenty years of hard learned and unbelievably expensive lessons. That and Stephen and Garrett in his ear reminding him.

Suh would be an unbelievable addition to this team, but he's only one guy. One hugely impactful guy, but his lone salary would feed three very good defensive players.

 

[UncleMilti]

The pain of twenty years of hard learned and unbelievably expensive lessons. That and Stephen and Garrett in his ear reminding him.

Suh would be an unbelievable addition to this team, but he's only one guy. One hugely impactful guy, but his lone salary would feed three very good defensive players.

It sounds good in theory and Jones has a good idea to a point.

But, those 3 players he used to replace Ware still flamed out at the end of the season because they are and always will be role players.

You still need a couple studs along the DL, with guys like Mincey and Selvie coming in to keep everyone fresh. Throwing 3 so-so guys out there and thinking you are gong to have a highly ranked DL is kidding yourself...and it proved out towards the end of the year when they couldn't get anyone off the field on crucial 3rd downs.

 

[ravidubey]

It sounds good in theory and Jones has a good idea to a point.

But, those 3 players he used to replace Ware still flamed out at the end of the season because they are and always will be role players.

You still need a couple studs along the DL, with guys like Mincey and Selvie coming in to keep everyone fresh. Throwing 3 so-so guys out there and thinking you are gong to have a highly ranked DL is kidding yourself...and it proved out towards the end of the year when they couldn't get anyone off the field on crucial 3rd downs.

No doubt. I think though that Jones is recognizing 1) what his backbone positions are and 2) the importance of filling those backbone players in the draft. Free Agent "stars" are too expensive and target dumb teams with gobs of cap space like the Raiders and Buccaneers.

Get great players to take less or pay them when you know you are a stone's throw from the Superbowl.

Dallas is close to the Superbowl, but Suh would break the bank for years to come.

Three positions are worth paying huge money: QB, WR, and LT.

Then comes DT. If Suh takes a deal at this next tier level, I'm very open. If he wants QB money he can go suck a cock.

After that start shuffling in players because the money will never be justified by the play at the position. Especially DE and CB. Some fool team is going to pay JPP a fortune and I'm going to laugh out loud. I'm already laughing at Denver for what they committed to Ware. Another team will buy the hype and had a truckload of cash to Revis. It's stupid. No single defensive player outside of #99 in Houston can justify it.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

You still need a couple studs along the DL, with guys like Mincey and Selvie coming in to keep everyone fresh. Throwing 3 so-so guys out there and thinking you are gong to have a highly ranked DL is kidding yourself...and it proved out towards the end of the year when they couldn't get anyone off the field on crucial 3rd downs.

Well to be fair Ware always flamed out down the stretch too...

The way I'd view the D-line is that I'd rather have 4 really good players then 1 stud and 3 jags. Because with 4 good players a team can't double all of them. You don't really care who they double team because everyone is good. A team with 1 stud and 3 jags will just have team constantly doubling the stud and you're left with 3 jags to get the job done.

Of course in an ideal world you would have 4 studs across the board. It's nearly impossible to do with the salary cap unless you really hit on some draft picks and have guys basically playing on the cheap.

 

[ravidubey]

Of course in an ideal world you would have 4 studs across the board. It's nearly impossible to do with the salary cap unless you really hit on some draft picks and have guys basically playing on the cheap.

Yep.

Detroit got caught with three top picks on the DL and now they have to let Suh go.

It's too many eggs in one basket, just like the Rams.

Rams have holes everywhere and down the road can't possibly keep Quinn, Long, Brockers, and Donald. Planet theory... those guys are impossible to keep-- especially on defense.

 

[Clay_Allison]

Some cheaper guys that we could get to fill out the rotation and replace Spencer: Jabaal Sheard, Brandon Graham.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Some cheaper guys that we could get to fill out the rotation and replace Spencer: Jabaal Sheard, Brandon Graham.

I actually very much like those two names. Both young and both have some pedigree from college. I was actually really surprised a guy like Sheard never progressed. He had 8.5 sacks as a rookie but it seems like he never progressed from there. The guy has the size of a DE, I'd like to see if he couldn't be more productive if moved back to his college position.

Graham is just someone I really like coming out of college. I have no real explanation for him not getting more snaps earlier in his career. Not sure I ever liked him as a 3-4 fit.

 

[Carp]

Some cheaper guys that we could get to fill out the rotation and replace Spencer: Jabaal Sheard, Brandon Graham.

I like both quite a bit. I expected more from both, but getting the most from players is Marinelli's strength.

 

[boozeman]

I like both quite a bit. I expected more from both, but getting the most from players is Marinelli's strength.

Yes, but that quality should not be turned into something it is not.

Get him talent.

 

[Carp]

Yes, but that quality should not be turned into something it is not.

Get him talent.

Agreed, but you need depth too. Not counting on these guys as starters.

 

[Clay_Allison]

I like both quite a bit. I expected more from both, but getting the most from players is Marinelli's strength.

I really liked Graham in the draft, he had a big injury setback and then the Eagles switched to a 3-4, but he's gotten in there and been a plus pass rusher in their rotation. I think he still has some talent left for a guy like Marinelli to tap.