Archer: Dallas Cowboys game predictions

[Cotton]

Dallas Cowboys game predictions

September, 2, 2014

By Todd Archer | ESPNDallas.com

ESPN.com Dallas Cowboys reporter Todd Archer makes his game-by-game picks for the 2014 season.


Week 1: San Francisco 49ers

Surprise. The Niners have been among the best teams in the NFC the past few years, but they won't have NaVorro Bowman and Glenn Dorsey and likely Aldon Smith on their tough defense. That's good news for Tony Romo and the offense.Prediction: Win

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Week 2: at Tennessee Titans

The last time the Cowboys played in Nashville, Jerry Jones was signing autographs in his suite during the game. He should be fortunate to do the same again with the Cowboys off to their first 2-0 start since 2008. The Titans don't have the passing game to keep up with the Cowboys, even with a subpar defense.Prediction: Win

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Week 3: at St. Louis Rams

If this game was at home, it would be a win and DeMarco Murray would have a huge game on the ground. But it's at the Edward Jones Dome and the Rams' defensive front will provide a huge test for the Cowboys' offensive line.Prediction: Loss

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Week 4: New Orleans Saints

The Saints annihilated the Cowboys last year, picking up 40 first downs and 625 yards in a 49-17 win that wasn't even that close. This game will be closer butDrew Brees will be able to pick apart a secondary that will be facing the best quarterback to date. Prediction: Loss

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Week 5: Houston Texans

J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are a nightmare duo for offensive lines, but the Cowboys won't be afraid. New Texans coach Bill O'Brien will succeed but Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't the answer at quarterback. This is one of those early-season must wins for the Cowboys. Prediction: Win

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Week 6: at Seattle Seahawks

There are all sorts of bad memories at Seattle, starting with Romo's bobbled snap in the 2006 playoffs. But the Cowboys' most recent visit to CenturyLink Field was a 27-7 drubbing in 2012. The Legion of Boom will be looking forward to Dez Bryant. This will be another day of bad memories. Prediction: Loss

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Week 7: New York Giants

The Cowboys finally beat the Giants at AT&T Stadium last year and will make it two in a row in Arlington. Eli Manning doesn't look comfortable in the new offense and the Giants' defense does not match up well against the Cowboys' strengths.Prediction: Win

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Week 8: Washington Redskins

Jon Gruden will be in the house calling the game for ESPN on "Monday Night Football," to see his brother Jay lose in a low-scoring, hard-hitting game like most of the contests between the Redskins and Cowboys. Dwayne Harris makes the difference again on special teams. Prediction: Win

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Week 9: Arizona Cardinals

The Cowboys put together their first three-game winning streak since late in the 2012 season to get to 6-3. If they want to stay in the playoff conversation, this is the kind of start they would need, but it does not guarantee them a postseason appearance. Prediction: Win

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Week 10: at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have the kind of defense the Cowboys would like to have: young, fast, aggressive, angry. This game will surprise many people, but Gus Bradley is building something in Jacksonville worth noting. The Cowboys might be America's Team, but they're not London's Team. Prediction: Loss

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Week 12: at New York Giants

The Cowboys have fared well at MetLife Stadium with some surprising wins, but the doubts start to creep in after the Jacksonville loss and the bye week does not help them get things corrected. Playing the second time in five weeks, New York will have better answers at home. Prediction: Loss

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Week 13: Philadelphia Eagles

The NFL did the Cowboys no favors by giving them a night game on Sunday in New York to make a short week even shorter. Despite their defensive woes a year ago, the Cowboys were OK against Chip Kelly's offense. They'll be better than OK here to temporarily right the ship. Prediction: Win

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Week 14: at Chicago Bears

Last year's visit to Soldier Field was a mess. Josh McCown lit up the Cowboys for four touchdowns and 348 yards. He's now in Tampa Bay and Jay Cutler is a better quarterback to feature wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery.Prediction: Loss

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Week 15: at Philadelphia Eagles

Like the Giants in Week 12, the Eagles come up with the answers in the rematch. The Cowboys will have a 10-day break leading into the game to help prepare for Kelly's pace of play, but it won't help. Tight ends Zach Ertz and Brent Celek have big days against the Dallas linebackers. Prediction: Loss

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Week 16: Indianapolis Colts

The Cowboys are in must-win territory with four losses in their past five games. The offense will be able to do its part, but the defense will not have any answers for Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, who will be making his first visit to AT&T Stadium. Prediction: Loss

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Week 17: at Washington Redskins

The Cowboys can make history with a win. It's just not the history they want. With a win, the Cowboys will become the first team with four straight 8-8 finishes. Is this the last game of the Jason Garrett era, or does Jerry Jones give him an extension? Prediction: Win

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Predicted Record: 8-8

 

[Plan9Misfit]

Feh

 

[Clay_Allison]

He gave us wins in a lot of games where the defense will have to step up to get us a win. I don't see that happening.

These predicted wins over Washington (x2), San Fran, and Philly leave me wondering, who is going to stop the run in those games?

 

[Plan9Misfit]

He gave us wins in a lot of games where the defense will have to step up to get us a win. I don't see that happening.

These predicted wins over Washington (x2), San Fran, and Philly leave me wondering, who is going to stop the run in those games?

Sam will be plugging many of those holes.

/threadderailed

 

[Cowboysrock55]

He gave us wins in a lot of games where the defense will have to step up to get us a win. I don't see that happening.

These predicted wins over Washington (x2), San Fran, and Philly leave me wondering, who is going to stop the run in those games?

Josh Brent...

 

[skidadl]

Sam will be plugging many of those holes.

/threadderailed

 

[ravidubey]

He gave us wins in a lot of games where the defense will have to step up to get us a win. I don't see that happening.

These predicted wins over Washington (x2), San Fran, and Philly leave me wondering, who is going to stop the run in those games?

Exactly. Jay Gruden isn't anything special, but he isn't incompetent either. Why wouldn't he just run Alfred Morris behind Trent Williams 25 times a game?

Of course last years' team was equally weak, and that defense held McCoy in Philadelphia and played respectably well in Dallas to finish the season.

I just feel the 49ers are going to run Gore and Hyde until Henry Melton bleeds and might win the game with 100 yards passing like RG3 did to end 2012.

Only arrogant offensive coordinators who insist on passing should have a chance of losing to Dallas.

Crawford, Melton, Hayden, Mincey, McClain, Durant, Wilber, Wilcox, Church, Claiborne, and Carr are going to have a tough season.

 

[Smitty]

The homer that is left inside of me (its buried pretty deep) questions why, if we get some luck for once in terms of players staying healthy and developing in our favor, the team can't be respectable on defense by midseason.

If:

Spencer is healthy and is reasonably like what he was in 2012, or at least 2011 (6 sacks, strong run defender, plus pass rusher).
Brent comes back and can play reasonably like what he did in 2012 (doesn't put up stats but collapses the pocket and makes enough plays to be noticeable).
Melton can stay free from nagging injuries and plays reasonably like what he did in 2011-2012 with the Bears (6-7 sacks and gets consistent rush from inside).
Tyrone Crawford can become a plus role player and give us quality snaps, or better yet, takes the LE job from Selvie and Selvie becomes a situational rusher.
Bruce Carter doesn't completely shit the bed.
Rolando McClain becomes an average starter who can stay healthy for one season until Lee gets back.
Terrell McClain stays healthy and is a noticeable upgrade over Nick Hayden.
Michael Sam flashes potential and joins the roster and has success as a situational pass rusher.
DeMarcus Lawrence comes back after Week 8 and gives us a spark down the stretch as a pass rusher and shows hope for the future at that spot.
Rookies Ken Bishop and Davon Coleman show something as the season progresses.
JJ Wilcox develops into a non-liability and makes the occasional woo hit and forces a few turnovers.
Orlando Scandrick picks up where he left off last season when he returns.
Morris Claiborne FINALLY stays healthy and FINALLY turns into at least something approaching a Terence Newman level CB... which would still be a huge waste of a 6th overall pick and tremendous disappointment.

I feel like if three quarters of those things happen we'll be in pretty decent shape. It would take a huge stroke of luck that we just haven't had in recent years though.

But in a best case scenario, this doesn't look horrible, heading into the home stretch of this season's schedule:

LE: Tyrone Crawford/George Selvie/Michael Sam
LDT: Josh Brent/Terrell McClain/Ken Bishop
RDT: Henry Melton/Davon Coleman
RDE: Anthony Spencer/DeMarcus Lawrence

LOLB: Justin Durant/Korey Toomer
MLB: Rolando McClain/Anthony Hitchens
ROLB: Bruce Carter/Kyle Wilber

LCB: Brandon Carr/Orlando Scandrick
FS: Barry Church/Jakar Hamilton
SS: JJ Wilcox/Jeff Heath/CJ Spillman
RCB: Morris Claiborne/Sterling Moore/Tyler Patmon

(note that I'm cutting Jeremy Mincey and Nick Hayden from the roster as guys come back midseason and prove better than them. Mincey and Hayden are my first two out because they aren't as good as the starters and don't have the potential of the backups. I probably have to drop another DB too).

Could be half decent if the guys stay healthy and pan out. I mean, none of those above statements are preposterous by themselves. Any one of them could realistically happen. It's just that you can't figure realistically that ALL OF THEM will happen.

Ok.... /homer. Sorry about that guys.

 

[boozeman]

The homer that is left inside of me (its buried pretty deep) questions why, if we get some luck for once in terms of players staying healthy and developing in our favor, the team can't be respectable on defense by midseason.

If:

Spencer is healthy and is reasonably like what he was in 2012, or at least 2011 (6 sacks, strong run defender, plus pass rusher).
Brent comes back and can play reasonably like what he did in 2012 (doesn't put up stats but collapses the pocket and makes enough plays to be noticeable).
Melton can stay free from nagging injuries and plays reasonably like what he did in 2011-2012 with the Bears (6-7 sacks and gets consistent rush from inside).
Tyrone Crawford can become a plus role player and give us quality snaps, or better yet, takes the LE job from Selvie and Selvie becomes a situational rusher.
Bruce Carter doesn't completely shit the bed.
Rolando McClain becomes an average starter who can stay healthy for one season until Lee gets back.
Terrell McClain stays healthy and is a noticeable upgrade over Nick Hayden.
Michael Sam flashes potential and joins the roster and has success as a situational pass rusher.
DeMarcus Lawrence comes back after Week 8 and gives us a spark down the stretch as a pass rusher and shows hope for the future at that spot.
Rookies Ken Bishop and Davon Coleman show something as the season progresses.
JJ Wilcox develops into a non-liability and makes the occasional woo hit and forces a few turnovers.
Orlando Scandrick picks up where he left off last season when he returns.
Morris Claiborne FINALLY stays healthy and FINALLY turns into at least something approaching a Terence Newman level CB... which would still be a huge waste of a 6th overall pick and tremendous disappointment.

I feel like if three quarters of those things happen we'll be in pretty decent shape. It would take a huge stroke of luck that we just haven't had in recent years though.

But in a best case scenario, this doesn't look horrible, heading into the home stretch of this season's schedule:

LE: Tyrone Crawford/George Selvie/Michael Sam
LDT: Josh Brent/Terrell McClain/Ken Bishop
RDT: Henry Melton/Davon Coleman
RDE: Anthony Spencer/DeMarcus Lawrence

LOLB: Justin Durant/Korey Toomer
MLB: Rolando McClain/Anthony Hitchens
ROLB: Bruce Carter/Kyle Wilber

LCB: Brandon Carr/Orlando Scandrick
FS: Barry Church/Jakar Hamilton
SS: JJ Wilcox/Jeff Heath/CJ Spillman
RCB: Morris Claiborne/Sterling Moore/Tyler Patmon

(note that I'm cutting Jeremy Mincey and Nick Hayden from the roster as guys come back midseason and prove better than them. Mincey and Hayden are my first two out because they aren't as good as the starters and don't have the potential of the backups. I probably have to drop another DB too).

Could be half decent if the guys stay healthy and pan out. I mean, none of those above statements are preposterous by themselves. Any one of them could realistically happen. It's just that you can't figure realistically that ALL OF THEM will happen.

Ok.... /homer. Sorry about that guys.

You sicken me.

 

[Jiggyfly]

You sicken me.

 

[hstour]

I'm not into making predictions until after the 4th regular season game. That gives you a better view of the actual team that is playing.

But to just assume that that 49'ers are a run away favorite in game 1 is a bit short sited. SF will be without Aldon Smith(9 weeks), Marcus Martin (8 weeks), Micheal Crabtree (50/50), Bowman (8 weeks), Antoine Bethea - concussion - (1-2 weeks), Ray McDonald (recovery from torn bicep and now domestic abuse charges).

They are hurting with major contributors.

 

[Cotton]

I'm not into making predictions until after the 4th regular season game. That gives you a better view of the actual team that is playing.

But to just assume that that 49'ers are a run away favorite in game 1 is a bit short sited. SF will be without Aldon Smith(9 weeks), Marcus Martin (8 weeks), Micheal Crabtree (50/50), Bowman (8 weeks), Antoine Bethea - concussion - (1-2 weeks), Ray McDonald (recovery from torn bicep and now domestic abuse charges).

They are hurting with major contributors.

And we have Spencer, Lawrence, Scandrick, Hamilton, and Lee out as well. Seems pretty evenly divided.

 

[hstour]

Quite possibly. I tend to think it will come down to the team that can control the ball with the run game and is the last team to have a TD score.

But if it comes down to the ability to score quickly, I'd give the edge to Romo/Bryant than to Kaepernick/Crabtree(Davis).

 

[Cotton]

Quite possibly. I tend to think it will come down to the team that can control the ball with the run game and is the last team to have a TD score.

But if it comes down to the ability to score quickly, I'd give the edge to Romo/Bryant than to Kaepernick/Crabtree(Davis).

We will get beat by 10 points at least.

 

[hstour]

We will get beat by 10 points at least.

We will see, but to make it as a statement of fact is doubtful. If you were that good at calling games, you would be living in Vegas in a $10M mansion.

 

[Clay_Allison]

The situation where I can see us having a good or average D is where we pull a 2001 and occupy and engage and tackle really well.

 

[Texas Ace]

6-10 at best.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

The situation where I can see us having a good or average D is where we pull a 2001 and occupy and engage and tackle really well.

At this point I'd take a lame bend but don't break defense and hope the offense makes a mistake. The problem is our safety play is going to be so poor I don't think we are even capable of that.

 

[DLK150]

If:

Spencer is healthy and is reasonably like what he was in 2012, or at least 2011 (6 sacks, strong run defender, plus pass rusher).
Brent comes back and can play reasonably like what he did in 2012 (doesn't put up stats but collapses the pocket and makes enough plays to be noticeable).
Melton can stay free from nagging injuries and plays reasonably like what he did in 2011-2012 with the Bears (6-7 sacks and gets consistent rush from inside).
Tyrone Crawford can become a plus role player and give us quality snaps, or better yet, takes the LE job from Selvie and Selvie becomes a situational rusher.
Bruce Carter doesn't completely shit the bed.
Rolando McClain becomes an average starter who can stay healthy for one season until Lee gets back.
Terrell McClain stays healthy and is a noticeable upgrade over Nick Hayden.
Michael Sam flashes potential and joins the roster and has success as a situational pass rusher.
DeMarcus Lawrence comes back after Week 8 and gives us a spark down the stretch as a pass rusher and shows hope for the future at that spot.
Rookies Ken Bishop and Davon Coleman show something as the season progresses.
JJ Wilcox develops into a non-liability and makes the occasional woo hit and forces a few turnovers.
Orlando Scandrick picks up where he left off last season when he returns.
Morris Claiborne FINALLY stays healthy and FINALLY turns into at least something approaching a Terence Newman level CB... which would still be a huge waste of a 6th overall pick and tremendous disappointment.

Oh, that's all?

It would take a huge stroke of luck that we just haven't had in recent years though.

Competence. Don't forget competence.

8 wins would be a good year considering this defense's potential.

 

[Clay_Allison]

At this point I'd take a lame bend but don't break defense and hope the offense makes a mistake. The problem is our safety play is going to be so poor I don't think we are even capable of that.

Yeah, as bad as the talent in 2001 was, we did have Woodson and Teague back there at S.