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[h=2]Which Small-School Prospects Will The Cowboys Draft This Year?[/h] By One.Cool.Customer @OCC44 on May 2 2014, 1:30p
Like it or not, the small-school standout is a staple of Dallas Cowboys drafts, and has been for decades. The first Cowboys player to fit the "small-school standout" definition was defensive tackle Jethro Pugh out of Elizabeth (N.C.) City State in the 1964 draft. Since then, the Cowboys have had great success looking for talent in out of the way places, and have compiled an impressive list of small-school talent that includes Hall of Fame OT Rayfield Wright out of Fort Valley State, HoF OG Larry Allen out of Sonoma State, and numerous Pro Bowlers. More recently, the Cowboys found Tony Romo in out of the way Eastern Illinois, and small-school prospects continue to make the roster in Dallas.
But for all the feel-good stories about guys that made it, there are also a lot of stories about guys who weren't able to make the jump from small schools to the NFL. For the purposes of today's post, we'll use two definitions for small-school players:
As you would expect, players from the six big college divisions make up the bulk of the draft picks in the NFL. 77% of all draft picks from 2010-2013 played in one of those six divisions. Another 12% of the draft picks hail from the remaining BCS divisions, while 11% of the players drafted did not attend a BCS school. Those percentages naturally differ by round, as the following table shows:
Over the last four years, the Cowboys have drafted 11 players, or almost three per draft, that did not play in the top six BCS divisions. Here's an overview of Cowboys draft picks that could be considered smaller-school prospects:
For many Cowboys fans, fourth rounder Akwasi Owusu-Ansah from Indiana (Pa) has become a synonym for a small-school bust. In 2010, AOA was selected with the 126th pick at the end of the fourth round. The next three DBs selected were Kam Chancellor out of Virginia Tech (133), Dominique Franks out of Oklahoma (135) and Kendrick Lewis out of Mississippi (136). Those three players have combined for 101 starts in four years. AOA started two games for Jacksonville in 2011 and never started for Dallas.
Yet the AOA pick falls squarely on the scouting: AOA was the BPA on the Cowboys board when the Cowboys were on the clock. The Cowboys had AOA rated as their 69th guy with a fourth-round grade. Franks was 82nd (4th rd grade), Chancellor was 87th (4th rd grade), and Lewis wasn't even on their draft board.
If you look dispassionately at the table above, you'll have to concede that this is a pretty sobering list. Five of the eleven picks on the list are no longer with the Cowboys. And while Cowboys fans may have high hopes for some of the remaining players on the list, none of them - outside of perhaps Dwayne Harris as a returner - has yet shown that he will be a substantial contributor to the Cowboys. This might very well change this season, but it just as easily might not.
And this highlights some of the risks inherent in selecting small-school players: They've excelled against mostly inferior competition; many of them have relied more on pure athleticism than technique to beat their opponents in college, and that won't work at the NFL level anymore; many of them face a steeper learning curve in the NFL than big-school prospects; some of them need considerable strength & conditioning time to get NFL-ready. In short, small-school prospects face an arduous uphill climb in the NFL, and not all of them are up to that task.
It's not clear to us how the Cowboys factor this risk into their prospect grades, but the Cowboys’ recent talent acquisition history indicates that college pedigree may play a lesser role in Dallas than in other places. To see how the Cowboys compare to the other teams in the league in terms of drafting small-school players, I looked at how many of each NFL team's draft picks between 2010 and 2013 come from non-BCS schools, and I used the same criteria outlined above to run the numbers:
Like it or not, the small-school standout is a staple of Dallas Cowboys drafts, and has been for decades. The first Cowboys player to fit the "small-school standout" definition was defensive tackle Jethro Pugh out of Elizabeth (N.C.) City State in the 1964 draft. Since then, the Cowboys have had great success looking for talent in out of the way places, and have compiled an impressive list of small-school talent that includes Hall of Fame OT Rayfield Wright out of Fort Valley State, HoF OG Larry Allen out of Sonoma State, and numerous Pro Bowlers. More recently, the Cowboys found Tony Romo in out of the way Eastern Illinois, and small-school prospects continue to make the roster in Dallas.
But for all the feel-good stories about guys that made it, there are also a lot of stories about guys who weren't able to make the jump from small schools to the NFL. For the purposes of today's post, we'll use two definitions for small-school players:
- Non-BCS 6: Players not from the six big college divisions (AAC, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC) + Notre Dame
- Non-BCS 10: Players not from any of the ten BCS divisions (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC + Notre Dame + C-USA, MAC, MWC and Sun Belt)
As you would expect, players from the six big college divisions make up the bulk of the draft picks in the NFL. 77% of all draft picks from 2010-2013 played in one of those six divisions. Another 12% of the draft picks hail from the remaining BCS divisions, while 11% of the players drafted did not attend a BCS school. Those percentages naturally differ by round, as the following table shows:
Round | BCS 6 Players | Non-BCS 6 Players | Non-BCS 10 Players |
1 | 95% | 4% | 2% |
2 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
3 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
4 | 79% | 8% | 13% |
5 | 75% | 13% | 12% |
6 | 71% | 15% | 15% |
7 | 66% | 14% | 20% |
Year | Round | Player | POS | College | Conf | BCS-6 | BCS-10 |
2010 | 4 | Akwasi Owusu-Ansah | CB | Indiana (PA) | PSAC | No | No |
2010 | 7 | Sean Lissemore | DT | William & Mary | CAA | No | No |
2011 | 4 | David Arkin | G | Missouri State | MVFC | No | No |
2011 | 5 | Josh Thomas | CB | Buffalo | MAC | No | Yes |
2011 | 6 | Dwayne Harris | WR | East Carolina | C-USA | No | Yes |
2012 | 3 | Tyrone Crawford | DE | Boise State | MWC | No | Yes |
2012 | 4 | Matt Johnson | S | Eastern Washington | Big Sky | No | No |
2012 | 7 | Caleb McSurdy | ILB | Montana | Big Sky | No | No |
2013 | 2 | Gavin Escobar | TE | San Diego State | MWC | No | Yes |
2013 | 3 | J. J. Wilcox | S | Georgia Southern | SoCon | No | No |
2013 | 4 | B. W. Webb | CB | William & Mary | CAA | No | No |
Yet the AOA pick falls squarely on the scouting: AOA was the BPA on the Cowboys board when the Cowboys were on the clock. The Cowboys had AOA rated as their 69th guy with a fourth-round grade. Franks was 82nd (4th rd grade), Chancellor was 87th (4th rd grade), and Lewis wasn't even on their draft board.
If you look dispassionately at the table above, you'll have to concede that this is a pretty sobering list. Five of the eleven picks on the list are no longer with the Cowboys. And while Cowboys fans may have high hopes for some of the remaining players on the list, none of them - outside of perhaps Dwayne Harris as a returner - has yet shown that he will be a substantial contributor to the Cowboys. This might very well change this season, but it just as easily might not.
And this highlights some of the risks inherent in selecting small-school players: They've excelled against mostly inferior competition; many of them have relied more on pure athleticism than technique to beat their opponents in college, and that won't work at the NFL level anymore; many of them face a steeper learning curve in the NFL than big-school prospects; some of them need considerable strength & conditioning time to get NFL-ready. In short, small-school prospects face an arduous uphill climb in the NFL, and not all of them are up to that task.
It's not clear to us how the Cowboys factor this risk into their prospect grades, but the Cowboys’ recent talent acquisition history indicates that college pedigree may play a lesser role in Dallas than in other places. To see how the Cowboys compare to the other teams in the league in terms of drafting small-school players, I looked at how many of each NFL team's draft picks between 2010 and 2013 come from non-BCS schools, and I used the same criteria outlined above to run the numbers:
Small-School Prospects by Team, 2010-2013 (click blue column headers to sort) |
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