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Five most challenging NFL offseasons
February, 17, 2014
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com
It was June 1995 when news broke that Raiders owner Al Davis would move the team back to Oakland from Los Angeles. I'd grown up in Northern California, so the happy news stirred in my mind images of the team's rich history: Ghost to the Post, Sea of Hands, Marcus Allenknifing through the middle of the Washington defense in Super Bowl XVIII. Naively fearing a mad rush to the box office, I hastily called an old neighbor and went in on season tickets: Section 320, Row 8.
The team returned, but not the glory days. By the time the Raiders reached the Super Bowl again eight years later, I was covering the league and hadn't watched a game socially in five seasons. My fan card had expired forever, but it was for the best. The Raiders have posted an NFL-worst 53-123 record (.301) in regular-season games since that 2002 Super Bowl season. JaMarcus Russell and Darrius Heyward-Bey headlined disastrous drafts.DeAngelo Hall, Javon Walker, Kamerion Wimbley, Gibril Wilson, Richard Seymour and other veteran acquisitions produced more salary-cap headaches than on-the-field successes.
While those disappointments now appear to be in the past, as the Raiders lead the NFL in projected salary-cap space heading toward the 2014 season, challenges remain. The Raiders might have finally gotten their heads above water in relation to the cap, but from a personnel standpoint, they've surfaced at the bottom of the Grand Canyon. They have the money to make free-agent signings, but with limited options available (free agents who would want to sign in Oakland, at least), their best course of action is to rebuild over the long term. Unfortunately, their coach and general manager could need short-term results to keep their jobs. That’s a tough predicament to manage, perhaps even an impossible one.
Which other teams are facing the most difficult offseasons for 2014? Here are my picks for the five most challenging.
1. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are a mess from a salary-cap standpoint, and it will affect their team-building again this offseason. For years, the organization has relieved short-term cap pains by pushing charges into the future, all in the name of a win-now philosophy. That probably will be Dallas' approach again this offseason as the team tries to clear more than $20 million just to comply with the 2014 cap as required by March 11.
Teams seeking quick cap relief sometimes release players to clear room. Dallas cannot do that in most cases because so many of the Cowboys' contracts would produce even greater charges in 2014 if the players were released. Top pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware is on a short list of Cowboys whose releases would produce immediate cap relief. Ware has struggled with injuries recently and turns 32 in July. The team would be worse without him, however.
None of the cap-related moves available to the Cowboys, from reworking deals for veterans to releasing Ware, would improve the team. Even with those measures, Dallas could very well lose two of its best defensive linemen, Jason Hatcher and Anthony Spencer, in free agency. The Cowboys will have to prop up their defense through the draft while banking onTony Romo to make a strong return from back surgery. It's a formula for treading water and sinking eventually.
2. Oakland Raiders
Having more than $60 million in cap space puts the Raiders in position to spend on upgrades, but anyone familiar with free agency knows that teams re-sign their best players most of the time. For evidence, consider the 2010 draft choices selected after the first round. The four-year deals they signed as rookies made them eligible for free agency this offseason. However, six of the nine players with Pro Bowls on their résumés have already signed extensions (Rob Gronkowski, Daryl Washington, NaVorro Bowman, Geno Atkins, Antonio Brown and Kam Chancellor). Another,Jimmy Graham, will be franchised by New Orleans if the Saints do not sign him to an extension. The other two, guard Zane Beadles and return specialist Marc Mariani, aren't going to change a team's outlook.
For the Raiders, having so much cap space affirms just how weak their roster remains entering what could be a make-or-break season for coach Dennis Allen. The Raiders simply don’t have many players worth paying, and if you’re a free agent hitting the market this offseason, how high is Oakland on your list? The Raiders have no clear starting quarterback, no reliable top-shelf weapons, a head coach on the hot seat, a horrendous stadium situation and an unproven owner. They are picking fifth overall in a draft lacking a consensus franchise quarterback. All this, and they're still better off than they've been recently.
When I went through rosters to sketch in projected starters for 2014, I noticed the Raiders had as many as 11 of them set to become unrestricted free agents. That was the highest figure in the league. That isn't necessarily a bad thing for a team without high-value players. But it shows, again, just how much work remains to be done. It's still possible to improve via free agency. Seattle did it this past season by adding Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril to ramp up a sagging pass rush. But while those short-term signings put an already strong Seahawks defense over the top, they wouldn't have had nearly as much impact for an Oakland roster that was missing several key pieces.
3. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins should not be on this list. They went 4-1 from Weeks 11-15 last season. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill had 10 touchdown passes with four interceptions during that five-week period, same as the totals for Tom Brady. The lone Dolphins defeat came when another playoff team, Carolina, scored a go-ahead touchdown with 46 seconds remaining.
That seems like ancient history now. The Dolphins imploded during their final two games, causing them to miss the playoffs, and fired their general manager and offensive coordinator. Now, they might have to find five new starting offensive linemen for their 2014 opener. They might need a new line coach as well, depending upon the ultimate fallout for O-line coach Jim Turner from the embarrassing Wells report detailing how Richie Incognito,John Jerry and Mike Pouncey harassed fellow lineman Jonathan Martin and others. Incognito, Jerry and fellow starter Tyson Clabo can become free agents, as can Martin's replacement, Bryant McKinnie. Martin probably needs to go somewhere else for a fresh start. Pouncey figures to be back, but what if he's suspended?
The timing is rotten. Tannehill is entering his third season after taking a league-high 58 sacks in 2013, 10 more than any other QB. It was the same number Dan Marino absorbed in his first four NFL seasons combined. Tannehill is partly responsible for the high sack total, but he'll still need an upgraded line to succeed. Back in 2010, when the Dolphins gambled on the long-troubled Incognito in free agency, Bill Parcells was their top personnel decision-maker. Jake Long was their starting left tackle. Now, they've got a first-time GM in Dennis Hickey, no franchise left tackle and question marks across their line.
Personnel people around the league like Tannehill's potential, but so much of a quarterback's success depends upon what is happening around him in the organization. Can the Dolphins fix their line and everything else that is broken?
4. Washington Redskins
The Redskins' challenges this offseason include restoring quarterback Robert Griffin III, re-signing outside linebacker Brian Orakpo, overhauling their secondary, finding another receiving target and possibly tweaking the offensive line to fit a new scheme. This team needs help at every level of its defense, but for the second year in a row, Washington has no first-round draft choice. In fact, since 2010, the Redskins have used only eight picks in the first three rounds, fewest in the league and well off the 12.2 average for the other 31 teams. That has put pressure on Washington to succeed when drafting in the later rounds, which isn't easy.
Trading 2013 and 2014 first-rounders to St. Louis for the right to select Griffin carried risks because the QB had a relatively slight frame and a willingness to invite contact. Those traits were not to blame for the knee injury Griffin fought through in 2013, but they remain concerning as Griffin puts the injury behind him. The feeling here is that Griffin has had to carry too much of the load. Improved salary-cap flexibility should help the Redskins patch holes, but building through the draft is the way to go. The Redskins will have a hard time doing that while St. Louis holds the Redskins' first-round pick, No. 2 overall.
The Redskins were not necessarily wrong for making the move to get Griffin, but the way things have worked out, they have bigger needs than anticipated and not enough draft capital to address them.
5. Carolina Panthers
Staying on top can be as tough as getting there. The Panthers won the NFC South and will contend for the crown again in 2014, but challenges await second-year general manager Dave Gettleman. The Panthers' projected unrestricted free agents combined to play more than 8,000 snaps on offense and defense last season, the third-highest total in the league behind Oakland and the New York Giants. (The Giants were another team in consideration for this list.) The rough cap outlook Gettleman inherited has improved, but with so many potential UFAs, the Panthers could have a hard time gaining ground in a rugged NFC. Their own division figures to get tougher as well.
Re-signing defensive end Greg Hardy figures to be the top priority. Hardy ranks fifth in the NFL with 26 sacks over the past two seasons. He has sounded amenable to the franchise tag, but going that route could cost Carolina more than $12 million in precious cap space. Meanwhile, the Panthers' offensive skill players exceeded low expectations in 2013, butSteve Smith finally broke down late in the season. The Panthers' running backs, receivers and tight ends average 27.3 years old, highest in the league and 1.3 years above the average. This team could use younger, cheaper skill players to grow with quarterback Cam Newton.
Ideally, the Panthers would re-sign Hardy and strike a reasonable long-term extension with Newton this offseason, before the quarterback's value spikes. Hardy has to be the priority for now because his rookie contract is expiring next month. A deal for Newton can wait if need be. Gettleman and the Panthers showed last offseason they could instantly upgrade at defensive tackle through the draft, but they were picking 14th in the order then. Can they pull off something similar at other positions while picking 28th this year? They might need to if they're going to keep pace in a tough NFC South, let alone in the conference.
February, 17, 2014
By Mike Sando | ESPN.com
It was June 1995 when news broke that Raiders owner Al Davis would move the team back to Oakland from Los Angeles. I'd grown up in Northern California, so the happy news stirred in my mind images of the team's rich history: Ghost to the Post, Sea of Hands, Marcus Allenknifing through the middle of the Washington defense in Super Bowl XVIII. Naively fearing a mad rush to the box office, I hastily called an old neighbor and went in on season tickets: Section 320, Row 8.
The team returned, but not the glory days. By the time the Raiders reached the Super Bowl again eight years later, I was covering the league and hadn't watched a game socially in five seasons. My fan card had expired forever, but it was for the best. The Raiders have posted an NFL-worst 53-123 record (.301) in regular-season games since that 2002 Super Bowl season. JaMarcus Russell and Darrius Heyward-Bey headlined disastrous drafts.DeAngelo Hall, Javon Walker, Kamerion Wimbley, Gibril Wilson, Richard Seymour and other veteran acquisitions produced more salary-cap headaches than on-the-field successes.
While those disappointments now appear to be in the past, as the Raiders lead the NFL in projected salary-cap space heading toward the 2014 season, challenges remain. The Raiders might have finally gotten their heads above water in relation to the cap, but from a personnel standpoint, they've surfaced at the bottom of the Grand Canyon. They have the money to make free-agent signings, but with limited options available (free agents who would want to sign in Oakland, at least), their best course of action is to rebuild over the long term. Unfortunately, their coach and general manager could need short-term results to keep their jobs. That’s a tough predicament to manage, perhaps even an impossible one.
Which other teams are facing the most difficult offseasons for 2014? Here are my picks for the five most challenging.
1. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys are a mess from a salary-cap standpoint, and it will affect their team-building again this offseason. For years, the organization has relieved short-term cap pains by pushing charges into the future, all in the name of a win-now philosophy. That probably will be Dallas' approach again this offseason as the team tries to clear more than $20 million just to comply with the 2014 cap as required by March 11.
Teams seeking quick cap relief sometimes release players to clear room. Dallas cannot do that in most cases because so many of the Cowboys' contracts would produce even greater charges in 2014 if the players were released. Top pass-rusher DeMarcus Ware is on a short list of Cowboys whose releases would produce immediate cap relief. Ware has struggled with injuries recently and turns 32 in July. The team would be worse without him, however.
None of the cap-related moves available to the Cowboys, from reworking deals for veterans to releasing Ware, would improve the team. Even with those measures, Dallas could very well lose two of its best defensive linemen, Jason Hatcher and Anthony Spencer, in free agency. The Cowboys will have to prop up their defense through the draft while banking onTony Romo to make a strong return from back surgery. It's a formula for treading water and sinking eventually.
2. Oakland Raiders
Having more than $60 million in cap space puts the Raiders in position to spend on upgrades, but anyone familiar with free agency knows that teams re-sign their best players most of the time. For evidence, consider the 2010 draft choices selected after the first round. The four-year deals they signed as rookies made them eligible for free agency this offseason. However, six of the nine players with Pro Bowls on their résumés have already signed extensions (Rob Gronkowski, Daryl Washington, NaVorro Bowman, Geno Atkins, Antonio Brown and Kam Chancellor). Another,Jimmy Graham, will be franchised by New Orleans if the Saints do not sign him to an extension. The other two, guard Zane Beadles and return specialist Marc Mariani, aren't going to change a team's outlook.
For the Raiders, having so much cap space affirms just how weak their roster remains entering what could be a make-or-break season for coach Dennis Allen. The Raiders simply don’t have many players worth paying, and if you’re a free agent hitting the market this offseason, how high is Oakland on your list? The Raiders have no clear starting quarterback, no reliable top-shelf weapons, a head coach on the hot seat, a horrendous stadium situation and an unproven owner. They are picking fifth overall in a draft lacking a consensus franchise quarterback. All this, and they're still better off than they've been recently.
When I went through rosters to sketch in projected starters for 2014, I noticed the Raiders had as many as 11 of them set to become unrestricted free agents. That was the highest figure in the league. That isn't necessarily a bad thing for a team without high-value players. But it shows, again, just how much work remains to be done. It's still possible to improve via free agency. Seattle did it this past season by adding Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril to ramp up a sagging pass rush. But while those short-term signings put an already strong Seahawks defense over the top, they wouldn't have had nearly as much impact for an Oakland roster that was missing several key pieces.
3. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins should not be on this list. They went 4-1 from Weeks 11-15 last season. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill had 10 touchdown passes with four interceptions during that five-week period, same as the totals for Tom Brady. The lone Dolphins defeat came when another playoff team, Carolina, scored a go-ahead touchdown with 46 seconds remaining.
That seems like ancient history now. The Dolphins imploded during their final two games, causing them to miss the playoffs, and fired their general manager and offensive coordinator. Now, they might have to find five new starting offensive linemen for their 2014 opener. They might need a new line coach as well, depending upon the ultimate fallout for O-line coach Jim Turner from the embarrassing Wells report detailing how Richie Incognito,John Jerry and Mike Pouncey harassed fellow lineman Jonathan Martin and others. Incognito, Jerry and fellow starter Tyson Clabo can become free agents, as can Martin's replacement, Bryant McKinnie. Martin probably needs to go somewhere else for a fresh start. Pouncey figures to be back, but what if he's suspended?
The timing is rotten. Tannehill is entering his third season after taking a league-high 58 sacks in 2013, 10 more than any other QB. It was the same number Dan Marino absorbed in his first four NFL seasons combined. Tannehill is partly responsible for the high sack total, but he'll still need an upgraded line to succeed. Back in 2010, when the Dolphins gambled on the long-troubled Incognito in free agency, Bill Parcells was their top personnel decision-maker. Jake Long was their starting left tackle. Now, they've got a first-time GM in Dennis Hickey, no franchise left tackle and question marks across their line.
Personnel people around the league like Tannehill's potential, but so much of a quarterback's success depends upon what is happening around him in the organization. Can the Dolphins fix their line and everything else that is broken?
4. Washington Redskins
The Redskins' challenges this offseason include restoring quarterback Robert Griffin III, re-signing outside linebacker Brian Orakpo, overhauling their secondary, finding another receiving target and possibly tweaking the offensive line to fit a new scheme. This team needs help at every level of its defense, but for the second year in a row, Washington has no first-round draft choice. In fact, since 2010, the Redskins have used only eight picks in the first three rounds, fewest in the league and well off the 12.2 average for the other 31 teams. That has put pressure on Washington to succeed when drafting in the later rounds, which isn't easy.
Trading 2013 and 2014 first-rounders to St. Louis for the right to select Griffin carried risks because the QB had a relatively slight frame and a willingness to invite contact. Those traits were not to blame for the knee injury Griffin fought through in 2013, but they remain concerning as Griffin puts the injury behind him. The feeling here is that Griffin has had to carry too much of the load. Improved salary-cap flexibility should help the Redskins patch holes, but building through the draft is the way to go. The Redskins will have a hard time doing that while St. Louis holds the Redskins' first-round pick, No. 2 overall.
The Redskins were not necessarily wrong for making the move to get Griffin, but the way things have worked out, they have bigger needs than anticipated and not enough draft capital to address them.
5. Carolina Panthers
Staying on top can be as tough as getting there. The Panthers won the NFC South and will contend for the crown again in 2014, but challenges await second-year general manager Dave Gettleman. The Panthers' projected unrestricted free agents combined to play more than 8,000 snaps on offense and defense last season, the third-highest total in the league behind Oakland and the New York Giants. (The Giants were another team in consideration for this list.) The rough cap outlook Gettleman inherited has improved, but with so many potential UFAs, the Panthers could have a hard time gaining ground in a rugged NFC. Their own division figures to get tougher as well.
Re-signing defensive end Greg Hardy figures to be the top priority. Hardy ranks fifth in the NFL with 26 sacks over the past two seasons. He has sounded amenable to the franchise tag, but going that route could cost Carolina more than $12 million in precious cap space. Meanwhile, the Panthers' offensive skill players exceeded low expectations in 2013, butSteve Smith finally broke down late in the season. The Panthers' running backs, receivers and tight ends average 27.3 years old, highest in the league and 1.3 years above the average. This team could use younger, cheaper skill players to grow with quarterback Cam Newton.
Ideally, the Panthers would re-sign Hardy and strike a reasonable long-term extension with Newton this offseason, before the quarterback's value spikes. Hardy has to be the priority for now because his rookie contract is expiring next month. A deal for Newton can wait if need be. Gettleman and the Panthers showed last offseason they could instantly upgrade at defensive tackle through the draft, but they were picking 14th in the order then. Can they pull off something similar at other positions while picking 28th this year? They might need to if they're going to keep pace in a tough NFC South, let alone in the conference.
