Carp
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Easy there drama queen.
2013 NFL Draft Chatter Thread--25-27 Apr
- Thread starter Carp
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I feel bad for any WR who goes there. Sanchez blows.
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First-round preview: Dallas Cowboys
April, 25, 2013
By Dan Graziano | ESPNDallas.com
Where they're picking: No. 18
Conventional wisdom tells us the top six offensive linemen will be gone by 18, depriving the Cowboys of the chance to address their most significant short-term and long-term need. The mock drafts in which this happens have the Cowboys taking a defensive tackle such as Sheldon Richardson or Sylvester Williams at No. 18, and some are still connecting the Cowboys with Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro, since safety is a need as well. Everybody seems to agree that the Cowboys' dream scenario is that they get one of the draft's top two guards, either Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper, but no one seems to think either will fall to 18.
History tells us that the conventional wisdom is wrong. The last time six offensive linemen went in the top 17 picks was 1966, when the league only had 15 teams in it. Guards don't tend to go early, since most teams don't assign top-half-of-first-round value to that position. History tells us the Cowboys will be able to get offensive line help if they want it in the first round. But history also tells us that the Cowboys tend to pick out a guy they really like in the first round (Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith and Morris Claiborne are the recent examples) and do what they can to get him.
They probably won't end up with Vaccaro. First of all, it's possible he goes earlier than 18 (say, to St. Louis at 16). Second of all, their needs on the lines and the comparative value at those positions likely will push them to take a linemen of one sort or the other in a draft whose second round is packed with starting-caliber safeties. Sure, it's possible Vaccaro is this year's Jerry Jones crush and there's nothing anyone else in the braintrust can do to talk him out of it. But I'd be surprised if they end up with the Texas safety.
They could shock us by taking a tight end. The Blogfather, Matt Mosley, says he's been hearing the Cowboys love Notre Dame tight end Tyler Eifert, and if that's the case they could be making plans to move up to get him. While that would seem silly with Jason Witten still in place and at the top of his game, it's not completely crazy to find another weapon for Tony Romo in the passing game. If Eifert is the Cowboys' best player available, they could go for it. It would be foolish, and would leave them too short in too many other areas, but I'm not sure that would stop them.
My prediction: I'm leaning on history here and saying the mocks are all wrong and the Cowboys are going to be able to get one of those guards. Since we're making a pick, I'll say it's Chance Warmack who falls either all the way to 18 or at least into the 14-15 range that would allow them to make a sensible, cost-effective trade-up to get him. Not like last year's trade for Claiborne, which cost them their second-round pick, but maybe for a later-round pick or even a 2014 one.
April, 25, 2013
By Dan Graziano | ESPNDallas.com
Where they're picking: No. 18
Conventional wisdom tells us the top six offensive linemen will be gone by 18, depriving the Cowboys of the chance to address their most significant short-term and long-term need. The mock drafts in which this happens have the Cowboys taking a defensive tackle such as Sheldon Richardson or Sylvester Williams at No. 18, and some are still connecting the Cowboys with Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro, since safety is a need as well. Everybody seems to agree that the Cowboys' dream scenario is that they get one of the draft's top two guards, either Chance Warmack or Jonathan Cooper, but no one seems to think either will fall to 18.
History tells us that the conventional wisdom is wrong. The last time six offensive linemen went in the top 17 picks was 1966, when the league only had 15 teams in it. Guards don't tend to go early, since most teams don't assign top-half-of-first-round value to that position. History tells us the Cowboys will be able to get offensive line help if they want it in the first round. But history also tells us that the Cowboys tend to pick out a guy they really like in the first round (Dez Bryant, Tyron Smith and Morris Claiborne are the recent examples) and do what they can to get him.
They probably won't end up with Vaccaro. First of all, it's possible he goes earlier than 18 (say, to St. Louis at 16). Second of all, their needs on the lines and the comparative value at those positions likely will push them to take a linemen of one sort or the other in a draft whose second round is packed with starting-caliber safeties. Sure, it's possible Vaccaro is this year's Jerry Jones crush and there's nothing anyone else in the braintrust can do to talk him out of it. But I'd be surprised if they end up with the Texas safety.
They could shock us by taking a tight end. The Blogfather, Matt Mosley, says he's been hearing the Cowboys love Notre Dame tight end Tyler Eifert, and if that's the case they could be making plans to move up to get him. While that would seem silly with Jason Witten still in place and at the top of his game, it's not completely crazy to find another weapon for Tony Romo in the passing game. If Eifert is the Cowboys' best player available, they could go for it. It would be foolish, and would leave them too short in too many other areas, but I'm not sure that would stop them.
My prediction: I'm leaning on history here and saying the mocks are all wrong and the Cowboys are going to be able to get one of those guards. Since we're making a pick, I'll say it's Chance Warmack who falls either all the way to 18 or at least into the 14-15 range that would allow them to make a sensible, cost-effective trade-up to get him. Not like last year's trade for Claiborne, which cost them their second-round pick, but maybe for a later-round pick or even a 2014 one.
D
Deuce
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The WR would only have to deal with him for one more season. Then a new coach will come in, blow it up and find someone new. I feel worse for WR's who have to work with one of these rookies coming in for the next 4 years.
Smitty
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Wouldn't shock me to see more than one QB go in the first round.
If the Bills want to get back up to 18 and are willing to pay the cost of their second and a future first, I'd listen.
D
Deuce
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That's a long fall for just the future first...though you have to think it will be high next year. I'd rather Jacksonville want to move up. That pick could put us in the Clowney sweepstakes.
VA Cowboy
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With the quality of player that should be available at 18, I think the only way we seriously screw this up is by trading. Move down and we miss out on this tier of players settling for lesser and even with an additional pick I don't trust us to get that right. Or a trade up involving more than a 4th round pick. 2nd and 3rd rounders, especially in this draft are valuable. Doing one of Jerry's patented panic moves up a few spots costing us a 3rd rounder would be foolish imo too.
Smitty
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Oh sure.
There's a lot of opportunities there. I would even strongly consider it if Warmack is on the board.
I'd almost certainly pull the trigger if he's not.
Simpleton
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I'd definitely trade out of 18 for a 1st next year from a team like Jacksonville or Buffalo just for a chance to get Clowney or perhaps one of the QB's if this season gets all sorts of fucked up.
Cowboysrule122
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@ carp's sig.
D
Deuce
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Ya. Clowney, Bridgewater, Bortles. All easily worth whatever trade down we take with a legit shitty team.
BipolarFuk
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If we trade back with Jax or the Bills, all we would be doing is guaranteeing them at least a .500 record next year.
I hated the disappointment of watching Cleveland have a better than expected year when we had their first rounder.
I hated the disappointment of watching Cleveland have a better than expected year when we had their first rounder.
BipolarFuk
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VA Cowboy
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D
Deuce
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That's ok. Having 2 first rounders, one of which would be somewhat high would make it easy to move up and grab someone.
VA Cowboy
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We'd only have 2 first rounders due to having none this year. To make it worthwhile it'd have to be a top 10 pick.
Smitty
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Eventually you'll hit the jackpot there. I'd keep doing it.
So what if it takes 4-5 times trading out of the first? Getting a free top 5 pick is well worth it.
Smitty
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Yeah, for it to really pay off it'd have to be a high pick. But it's a calculated gamble, it doesn't make the thought process or the trade bad.
Like I said, in the end, the Cowboys have traded the 20th pick (or so) for a 2nd and the 20th pick the following year -- that's how it ended up both times, with Buffalo and Cleveland. You are coming out ahead value wise. This is a great year to do it again because of the weakness of the first round and the strength of the second round in OLs and safeties, our big needs.
And eventually you will hit the jackpot with a top 5 pick if you keep doing it with bad teams.
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