Good, bad early-entry decisions
Players smart to jump, smart to come back and in question for leaving early
Updated: January 21, 2014, 5:02 PM ET
By Mel Kiper Jr. | ESPN Insider
Generally speaking, I'm for players entering the NFL draft when they have a pretty good sense they'll be drafted. People tend to overlook some pretty significant things when they simply say a kid should "stick around and get his degree." For instance:
• Since so many players are on campus all summer and can take classes, many players don't just graduate, they graduate early. Teddy Bridgewater entered the draft "early" -- but he already had a degree.
• This is a dangerous sport, and I hate seeing a kid get hurt well after his draft value is established. Put yourself in the shoes of the player.
• Leaving for the NFL doesn't have to be the end of your education. If someone promised you $1 million as a college junior if you left school, would you say no and justify it by saying you could never go back? Of course not. Again, put yourself in the shoes of the player.
I think underclassmen see it this way more and more, which is why a record number of them entered the 2014 NFL draft. Will some go undrafted? Of course. But about 20 percent of NFL players are undrafted. A shorter draft means better player allocation based on team needs.
With that said, I wanted to look at some good and questionable draft decisions this year. For those I question, let me be clear that it's more about draft value and the chance to rise for 2015 -- it's not just a knock on the decision. Everybody has to evaluate their own situation.
Good timing
Eric Ebron, TE, North Carolina: Plays a key position with a frame and skill set every team covets right now. It's hard for me to see him falling outside the top 18 (the Jets pick at that spot), and he's riding a good wave of performance and positional momentum.
Ka'Deem Carey, RB, Arizona: Not only is Carey not shy about running through contact, he gets to do it a lot. He had 349 carries this past season, and 303 in 2012. That's plenty of punishment for an NFL running back over a two-year span, much less a guy not getting paid for it. Time to cash some checks for your efforts. I think he can go in Round 2 or 3.
Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M: This seems obvious, but remember Manziel still held the option of playing college football for two more years. His timing was good considering two other touted redshirt sophomores opted to go back to the Pac-12 for another season.
Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville: Riding the momentum of a great junior season, he enters the draft with a lot of teams needing safeties. He has a chance to be the first safety taken if he can out-perform Ha Ha Clinton-Dix during the draft process. A very good bet for Round 1.
Bishop Sankey, RB, Washington: Doesn't have quite the physical style of Carey, but he's underrated as a physical runner and had 327 carries this season after 289 carries as a sophomore. While he's not a certainty to go before Round 3, he deserves the payday and won't gain any draft value by going back.
Jace Amaro, TE, Texas Tech: Likely the second tight end off the board, Amaro isn't known to a lot of college football fans, but has great size and doesn't need to prove he can catch the ball as a slot tight end anymore after collecting 106 catches in 2013.
Greg Robinson, OT, Auburn: Rode a dominating season to the top 10 on my board. I've heard questions about him staying to develop as a pass-blocker, but why go back to Gus Malzahn's dominating run-oriented attack to do that? The NFL can develop him more efficiently, and he's going to land in the top 10.
Odell Beckham, WR, LSU: I wanted to point out an early-entry from the huge class of wide receivers that jumped early. I'll put Beckham here because not only is he a likely top-45 pick, he's caught 40 plus passes for three seasons at LSU, has certainly put in his time and is now a known commodity. Time to get paid for it.
Questionable timing
Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State: Am I breaking my rules here by saying a likely first-rounder should go back? Yes, but only because I think Benjamin is a lesser injury risk given his huge size, is still a work in progress technically and has a chance to go in the top 10 after this coming season, which is worth a lot of money.
Adrian Hubbard, OLB, Alabama: Hubbard redshirted as a freshman, so he could've gone back for another season. He's a very good athlete, but he's been an enigmatic performer, and I think lacks the frame to hold up well against the run at the next level. He's put in his time, I just think another year of coaching and physical work on his body could have elevated his stock a great deal.
Aaron Lynch, DE, South Florida: He may test out really well because he has some special traits as an athlete, but he was invisible for long stretches on tape and needs a lot of work before he'll see a lot of time on an NFL field.
Anthony Johnson, DT, LSU: Clearly gifted, but he runs hot and cold and simply doesn't get off blocks well enough. Now he'll face far better blockers. Still, could be a Day 2 steal for someone if he develops.
Brandon Coleman, WR, Rutgers: Didn't have a big year, and has entered a really crowded class. He has great size, but I'm not so sure he'll get to use it.
Cyrus Kouandjio, OT, Alabama: He'll go in Round 1, but his stock actually went down this year due to inconsistent play and trouble blocking speed. He has the physical profile of a good NFL left tackle, but I don't think he's ready to play it right away. If he improved just a bit he'd guarantee a top-10 spot for next year.
Xavier Grimble, TE, USC: Has the size and decent pass-catching skills you want, but has never really put it all together at USC after being a top recruit. His 25 catches this past season won't help him crack Day 2.
Vinnie Sunseri, S, Alabama: Maybe he was just ready to move on, but he's not a guarantee to be drafted and he's coming off a serious knee injury. Curious decision.
Smart to go back
Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson: Initially I didn't like this move, but Beasley is a little like Anthony Barr last year, who could have come out and gone in Round 1, but came back and really upped his profile. Beasley got off to a great start, but teams got better at keeping him blocked and I think he'll enter the 2015 draft with a bigger portfolio of pass-rushing moves.
Cameron Erving, OT, Florida State: Has a ton of physical talent, but he was really inconsistent based on my expectations and will only get better with another season. Much likelier to go in Round 1 next year.
Brett Hundley, QB. UCLA: Has a lot of great traits, including a big arm and good pocket movement skills, but this decision gives him a much better chance to start as an NFL rookie. I didn't think he was ready to do that in 2014.
Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon: He has great passing skills. He has great movement skills. But he needs to marry the two, anticipate better and enter the draft with more confidence. I feel like the Stanford game, where he was far more limited as a passer without his usual mobility, showed him a lot of what he still needs to work on.
Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State: He needs better anticipation, more consistent ball placement and the ability to get through reads quicker. He'll improve all of these in his final year at Ohio State.