2024 POTUS Thread...

Status
Not open for further replies.

Chocolate Lab

Kuato Lives
Joined
Oct 2, 2014
Messages
29,349
That's just an Iowa poll right? But it is definitely a shocking result. I wouldn't trust much of anything right now. I also wouldn't translate Iowa to other states.
Right, how does one candidate jump almost 10 percent so suddenly? That makes no sense at all. Especially in a state Trump won easily the last two times he ran.

If you want to be cynical, Iowa is correlated to Wisconsin because of similar demographics in the southern part of the state. Maybe they're prepping for a Wisconsin steal because up to now people have been saying the Iowa numbers mean Wisky is looking good for Trump.
 

Simpleton

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
21,279
That's just an Iowa poll right? But it is definitely a shocking result. I wouldn't trust much of anything right now. I also wouldn't translate Iowa to other states.
Yea but from what I read the issue is that she has Trump getting killed by older white women, which is a similar trend seen in Wisconsin.

If it's anywhere near even in Iowa he's not winning Michigan or Wisconsin and probably not Pennsylvania.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
125,699
If it's anywhere near even in Iowa he's not winning Michigan or Wisconsin and probably not Pennsylvania.
There is absolutely no way to know that.
 

Chocolate Lab

Kuato Lives
Joined
Oct 2, 2014
Messages
29,349
Yea but from what I read the issue is that she has Trump getting killed by older white women, which is a similar trend seen in Wisconsin.
Why would that be localized to Iowa, though? And why would it just now show up there?

Makes no sense. Something else is going on with the poll itself.
 

Simpleton

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
21,279
Why would that be localized to Iowa, though? And why would it just now show up there?

Makes no sense. Something else is going on with the poll itself.
Or something else is going on in the overly inundated poll ecosystem.

There's a reason so many respect Selzer and it's because she's been ridiculously accurate for like 10+ years now when other polls have missed. If I had to bet she's probably closer to the truth than the national poll cottage industry full of a bunch of click farmers.
 

Cotton

One-armed Knife Sharpener
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
125,699
Why would that be localized to Iowa, though? And why would it just now show up there?

Makes no sense. Something else is going on with the poll itself.
I don't trust polls one bit. 2016 taught me that.
 

Simpleton

DCC 4Life
Joined
Apr 8, 2013
Messages
21,279
There is absolutely no way to know that.
Not with certainty but there's a reason Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the same way for like the last 30 years or whatever.

Not everything is correlated but there's definitely correlation between certain localized areas that have demographic/cultural overlap.
 

UncleMilti

This seemed like a good idea at the time.
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
18,716
I hope the Iowa poll by Selzer isn’t correct.
General consensus is that’s some kind of fluke poll. Iowa is and has been solid red. There’s also another more reputable poll showing Trump up 10.

You also have to look at MI/WI polls from Rasmussen and Trafalgar and Atlas. The 3 top poll entities in 2020. All of them have Trump up in those states.
 

Chocolate Lab

Kuato Lives
Joined
Oct 2, 2014
Messages
29,349
How is anyone like Harris this stupid to not understand this? It's basic common sense.
Well her dad was literally* a Marxist, so...

The deluded people buying this garbage don't even care about the economics. They think there are bigger issues, like "fairness."

*yes,, literally
 

Chocolate Lab

Kuato Lives
Joined
Oct 2, 2014
Messages
29,349
Re: the polls, this is the NYT saying this.

 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
60,282
Not with certainty but there's a reason Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have gone the same way for like the last 30 years or whatever.

Not everything is correlated but there's definitely correlation between certain localized areas that have demographic/cultural overlap.
Whats weird is that the Seltzer poll has varried so wildly in just this election. Interesting that poll sticks to polling methods used for forever as opposed to changing its methods like others.

Historically for Iowa it has been very accurate. Granted it only goes back to like Obama.
 

Cowboysrock55

Super Moderator
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
60,282
Well her dad was literally* a Marxist, so...

The deluded people buying this garbage don't even care about the economics. They think there are bigger issues, like "fairness."

*yes,, literally
People are dumb, they think as long as their own income tax isn't going up it won't impact them.
 

UncleMilti

This seemed like a good idea at the time.
Staff member
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
18,716
Re: the polls, this is the NYT saying this.

NYT/Sienna.

🤣🤣
Can’t exceed total allowed seating, they have to include the number of people, equipment and stage area in that number. To be fair, Kamala has the same thing at her rallies….lots of seats look empty but it’s due to fire marshal restrictions.
 

Genghis Khan

The worst version of myself
Joined
Apr 7, 2013
Messages
46,092
For the record, someone on Reddit posted the following:




"I was watching ABC News this evening just to see what they were saying about the Selzer “Harris +3 Iowa” poll, and the correspondent ABC has that talks to both campaigns said that he spoke to the Harris campaign today, and they don’t actually believe she will win Iowa."
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom