The trends are swinging to her? Where do you see that? What about the betting markets that are totally unbiased?
The biggest thing is, he's far, FAR ahead of where he's ever been in the polls at this point, once when he won and once when he lost by 44k votes.
The last 5 polls are 3 for her, 1 for him, and 1 tie. Any lead he had here has completely evaporated in recent weeks. The betting markets don't say anything specifically about NC and are influenced by people betting money, not any actual data on polling. Betting markets could just be a couple foolish whales that are throwing away money.
On top of that, NC has been flooded with transplants from the west coast and the northeast in recent years. It has gotten way worse since the last election in 2020 after Covid hit and people all started working from home, they relocated from mega expensive urban areas to the NC suburbs. I'm reading between the lines that an already close electorate may be way more skewed than last time.
On top of THAT, the western region of the state was basically knocked offline by the Hurricane. You can't count on those rural votes being able to get to the voting locations.
On top of THAT, the governor election here is a shitshow, the Republican nominee is a clown and I suspect Trump's association with him is actually weighing Trump down.
Next, I do agree that in 2016 and 2020 he outperformed the polls, but the amount he outperformed them decreased from 2016 to 2020, and then from 2020 to 2022, the Democrats actually outperformed the polls. Trump wasn't on the ballot at midterms in 2022 but the Red Wave that polls were predicting fell flat. It's possible that the polls aren't off nearly as much as last time.
Finally, Atlas is one of the most reliable polls and they have her up 2.
I think he loses NC.
He has a path to win but losing NC makes it a good bit harder and less certain. He has to win Michigan and Arizona and PA now.
