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Decoding McCarthy, Week 10 - The 640 Yarder
Dallas puts up an all-time performance by leaning into its evolving offensive changes
BOB STURM
NOV 14, 2023
The statistics speak for themselves.
I shouldn’t have to do too much work here as the Cowboys gained 640 yards.
As a reminder, an average team gains 337 yards in an average NFL game. We have always defined 360+ as very good and 400+ as excellent.
Dallas had 640 on Sunday which is the second-most in Cowboys history and the second most in the NFL in the last five years. Only Miami putting 726 yards on Denver back in September out-gained what Dallas did to New York on Sunday.
Five Years.
Oh yeah, in the history of the Dallas Cowboys franchise – which is playing in its 64th year of existence this season – there is only one game that has more yardage and that was over 57 years ago.
This was one for the history books. But, it is also such an onslaught and mismatch that I am not sure how much value there is on a full autopsy.
Look at this drive chart. What am I supposed to offer about this? I guess we should probably get mad about the forth down at the goal-line and maybe the interception, but I will show you below that I think the Giants did one thing right on Sunday and it was that play-call that fooled the Cowboys once.
There isn’t much more to tell you about this one.
Dallas absolutely hammered the Giants like they have never hammered them before – and that says quite a bit since the last meeting was 40-0. I assume that NYC sports radio has chilled a bit on the pre-Week 1 claim Tiki Barber gave us that “most people” would rather have Daniel Jones over Dak Prescott, but, then again, they are a stubborn bunch.
There is a lot of green in our weekly data box as I probably should have just told Alex to “make it all green,” but two interceptions from Prescott and Cooper Rush causes us to dock them a point or two. Also, Dallas jumped from near the bottom of the league to league average in Red Zone percentage. Now, for the season, they sit at 51.3% and the league is at 53.9%. So, cash in your next two and you are above league average in that stat Dallas has been great at for most seasons with Prescott as their QB.
Also, notice the 21 first-down passes. I don’t want to say that this is the key to the Cowboys offensive surge, but it sure helps. They brutalized the Giants on deep passing on 1st down (which is something this “decoding” series could have told them about 15 years ago).
But there are two topics I want to make sure we get to this week and then we will study some film and look at some plays.
If either the injury or the work load is zapping Pollard of that burst, then his ability drops substantially.
Here are their season numbers and you see that Pollard has been getting a huge amount of the work (about 75%). You also see that the yards before contact are close, but the yards after contact are not nearly as tight.
Now, let’s look at the last month (post SF) and we can see the gap is smaller in work load (71%) but the production differences are starting to really pop up.
I think when Dowdle gets the ball, you are seeing some Marion Barber angry runs. Maybe that only works long term if you have a smaller workload, because it must be exhausting to look like you are mashing the gas on every run, but on Sunday, there was a clear difference in ferocity.
Here is a supercut of six Dowdle runs I enjoyed the most:
Look at him hit those holes and accelerate into the secondary. It is great stuff from a kid who has had a hard time staying healthy. So, yeah, that is the rub. If you play like this, can your body handle it as it increases?
And a lot of this just serves as a reminder on why you probably should never invest longterm at this position. Just plan on drafting one every 12-24 months.
The Cowboys offense has changed a lot since training camp and it may not be done changing. But, we saw a particularly stark parting of ways after San Francisco with many things that they left camp hoping they could do. They quickly found out that it wasn’t working and adjusted. This gets people frustrated, but I really think it is what coaching is all about. You are constantly adjusting, evaluating, and prescribing. It is like expecting a chess player to not only know he is going to win but knowing how he is going to win. It doesn’t always work that way. Sometimes, things change and you have to be better at fixing on the fly and adjusting than your opponents or predecessors were. And football is chess, but with injuries.
Ok, so quickly, here is what the evolution looks like for me.
COWBOYS OFFENSE WEEKS 1-5: COWBOYS OFFENSE WEEKS 6-10:
But, I have found some more things that have changed, too.
Shifts/Motions have all been moved way up. They were 23rd at under 48% in presnap motions and now they are 11th at 60%.
They have leaned way into 11 personnel, jumping from 52% up to 69%. That means a massive drop in 12 personnel and a minimizing of multiple tight ends (read: guys not named Jake Ferguson).
Play Action is up from 16% to 20%, but only in the sense that they are opting more into passing plays than smashing the run. In other words, it just means that Dak is pulling to throw more than giving the ball for a run. Which is all what we want.
The sum total is they are attacking more and hulk smashing less. Why? Because it is working massively – as shown below:
I will say it again because this gets people extremely upset when I say it: What do Aaron Brooks, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and now Dak Prescott have in common?
Mike McCarthy drastically improved their play when he started working with them. In fact, you could argue that he has never NOT brought out the best in a starting-caliber QB. I am sorry if this goes against the narratives you have been fed, but the numbers tell the true story.
Like I said yesterday on the radio, Sean Payton would have built a statue to himself by now for the work with Prescott. McCarthy doesn’t promote himself. And it actually seems to cost him in public perception.
DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART
Its beautiful in every way. I said this several weeks in a row, but Dak has never looked more in control of a Cowboys offense. He is playing this last month wonderfully.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 13:08 - 2nd and 9 - DAL 42 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb pushed ob at NYG 28 for 30 yards
As you look at these clips, notice the motion and the opportunities in throwing on early downs vertically. The Cowboys have collected some vertical playmakers, but you have to deliver the ball. Well, Prescott and Lamb is quickly evolving into what McCarthy had with Favre-Donald Driver and then Rodgers-Davante Adams. These guys are making it look easy and they finally know each-other well enough to take advantage of every chance like this.
1Q - 3:44 - 1st and 10 - NY 14 - C.Lamb right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Red zone solutions. Motion away from Lamb to isolate him and then bring him around on an end around where once he cuts inside he is gone. Very smart play in the open field for a guy who is playing his best football. Brilliantly schemed up run.
If you missed the film and the write-up on the Prescott interception that the Giants schemed up, check it out here. It is worth reviewing.
2Q - 11:25 - 1st and 10 - DAL 40 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb pushed ob at NYG 30 for 30 yards
Ok, 2nd Quarter. 1st and 10 deep shots. This is where Dallas can destroy people. Tight splits with everyone way inside the numbers. Short motion from Lamb (meaning motion that never crosses the ball) and it screws up the Giants coverage and they leave Lamb wide open down the sideline. Motion screws up defenses more than it should, so you are wise to employ it to make them sort right at the snap. A very easy explosive play is schemed up here.
2Q - 2:47 - 1st and 10 - DAL 15 - D.Prescott pass deep right to B.Cooks to DAL 49 for 34 yards
This one is why I refuse to concede that Brandin Cooks is not what he was. 1st down deep shots (drink) and use spread them out to see if they really are going to try to man-up across the board. When they do Prescott doesn’t even really need to hold the safety. He is leaning to the Lamb side already, so this is pregame drills. The only thing that didn’t work is it didn’t go for 85 yards. They will have to settle for a quick 34 and the disrespect of thinking they could cover Cooks with a slot corner. Punish that and send a message to the rest of the league.
2Q - 0:22 - 3rd and 9 - NY 10 - D.Prescott scrambles right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This one doesn’t require too much commentary. 3rd and long and you know the Giants are going to double Lamb in the slot. So you go empty with five targets. Single-high, cover 1. So, they need five for that, one more to double Lamb, and one more to play safety. So, they need seven defenders and have four rushers. When this happens, Dak knows nobody is watching him if he can get through the front four. This is QB when QB play is easy.
The offense is getting unlocked because now they can dictate terms again. It is a liberating place to be.
3Q - 4:47 - 1st and 10 - NY 41 - D.Prescott pass deep right to M.Gallup for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Hey, a 1st down deep shot (getting a little tipsy here). Cover 1 again and the safety cheats to Lamb. This is a one-on-one pregame passing drill to try to get Michael Gallup going. Football looks easy again.
3Q - 1:33 - 2nd and 10 - NY 12 - D.Prescott pass short right to C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I just want to show you this one because watching Lamb cross up a cover man is fun. The Giants want to run quarters here, but when Lamb lines up inside (Davante Adams stuff again), you have a safety over him. God bless Bobby McCain but this isn’t going to work. Lamb sets him up for a vertical and then crosses him over with a stutter and it is over.
I have nothing else to tell you today, folks. The Cowboys offense has leveled up. Here are our 10 big stats broken down to show you the first five weeks and the last five. Also, the 2022 stats to show you progress:
I don’t want to get you too excited – yes, I know it was just the Giants – but Dallas has an offense to match its defense right now. Stay healthy and stay on course and it is coming together nicely.
Dallas puts up an all-time performance by leaning into its evolving offensive changes
BOB STURM
NOV 14, 2023
The statistics speak for themselves.
I shouldn’t have to do too much work here as the Cowboys gained 640 yards.
As a reminder, an average team gains 337 yards in an average NFL game. We have always defined 360+ as very good and 400+ as excellent.
Dallas had 640 on Sunday which is the second-most in Cowboys history and the second most in the NFL in the last five years. Only Miami putting 726 yards on Denver back in September out-gained what Dallas did to New York on Sunday.
Five Years.
Oh yeah, in the history of the Dallas Cowboys franchise – which is playing in its 64th year of existence this season – there is only one game that has more yardage and that was over 57 years ago.
This was one for the history books. But, it is also such an onslaught and mismatch that I am not sure how much value there is on a full autopsy.
Look at this drive chart. What am I supposed to offer about this? I guess we should probably get mad about the forth down at the goal-line and maybe the interception, but I will show you below that I think the Giants did one thing right on Sunday and it was that play-call that fooled the Cowboys once.
There isn’t much more to tell you about this one.
Dallas absolutely hammered the Giants like they have never hammered them before – and that says quite a bit since the last meeting was 40-0. I assume that NYC sports radio has chilled a bit on the pre-Week 1 claim Tiki Barber gave us that “most people” would rather have Daniel Jones over Dak Prescott, but, then again, they are a stubborn bunch.
There is a lot of green in our weekly data box as I probably should have just told Alex to “make it all green,” but two interceptions from Prescott and Cooper Rush causes us to dock them a point or two. Also, Dallas jumped from near the bottom of the league to league average in Red Zone percentage. Now, for the season, they sit at 51.3% and the league is at 53.9%. So, cash in your next two and you are above league average in that stat Dallas has been great at for most seasons with Prescott as their QB.
Also, notice the 21 first-down passes. I don’t want to say that this is the key to the Cowboys offensive surge, but it sure helps. They brutalized the Giants on deep passing on 1st down (which is something this “decoding” series could have told them about 15 years ago).
But there are two topics I want to make sure we get to this week and then we will study some film and look at some plays.
- Rico Dowdle is getting dangerously close to being a better choice at RB than Tony Pollard.
If either the injury or the work load is zapping Pollard of that burst, then his ability drops substantially.
Here are their season numbers and you see that Pollard has been getting a huge amount of the work (about 75%). You also see that the yards before contact are close, but the yards after contact are not nearly as tight.
Now, let’s look at the last month (post SF) and we can see the gap is smaller in work load (71%) but the production differences are starting to really pop up.
I think when Dowdle gets the ball, you are seeing some Marion Barber angry runs. Maybe that only works long term if you have a smaller workload, because it must be exhausting to look like you are mashing the gas on every run, but on Sunday, there was a clear difference in ferocity.
Here is a supercut of six Dowdle runs I enjoyed the most:
Look at him hit those holes and accelerate into the secondary. It is great stuff from a kid who has had a hard time staying healthy. So, yeah, that is the rub. If you play like this, can your body handle it as it increases?
And a lot of this just serves as a reminder on why you probably should never invest longterm at this position. Just plan on drafting one every 12-24 months.
- The offensive evolution is still happening and the sliders keep moving.
The Cowboys offense has changed a lot since training camp and it may not be done changing. But, we saw a particularly stark parting of ways after San Francisco with many things that they left camp hoping they could do. They quickly found out that it wasn’t working and adjusted. This gets people frustrated, but I really think it is what coaching is all about. You are constantly adjusting, evaluating, and prescribing. It is like expecting a chess player to not only know he is going to win but knowing how he is going to win. It doesn’t always work that way. Sometimes, things change and you have to be better at fixing on the fly and adjusting than your opponents or predecessors were. And football is chess, but with injuries.
Ok, so quickly, here is what the evolution looks like for me.
COWBOYS OFFENSE WEEKS 1-5: COWBOYS OFFENSE WEEKS 6-10:
- Under Center: 45.3% (3rd) - Under Center 30.7% (15th)
- In Pocket passing: 87.2% (9th). - In Pocket 81.7% (22nd)
- Air Yards/Attempt: 6.6 (29th) - Air Yards/Att: 9.8 (3rd)
- Designed runs: 44.2% (3rd) - Designed Runs: 32.6% (27th)
- Run Yard % of total yds: 38% (3rd) - Run Yard % of total yds: 25% (23rd)
But, I have found some more things that have changed, too.
Shifts/Motions have all been moved way up. They were 23rd at under 48% in presnap motions and now they are 11th at 60%.
They have leaned way into 11 personnel, jumping from 52% up to 69%. That means a massive drop in 12 personnel and a minimizing of multiple tight ends (read: guys not named Jake Ferguson).
Play Action is up from 16% to 20%, but only in the sense that they are opting more into passing plays than smashing the run. In other words, it just means that Dak is pulling to throw more than giving the ball for a run. Which is all what we want.
The sum total is they are attacking more and hulk smashing less. Why? Because it is working massively – as shown below:
I will say it again because this gets people extremely upset when I say it: What do Aaron Brooks, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and now Dak Prescott have in common?
Mike McCarthy drastically improved their play when he started working with them. In fact, you could argue that he has never NOT brought out the best in a starting-caliber QB. I am sorry if this goes against the narratives you have been fed, but the numbers tell the true story.
Like I said yesterday on the radio, Sean Payton would have built a statue to himself by now for the work with Prescott. McCarthy doesn’t promote himself. And it actually seems to cost him in public perception.
DAK PRESCOTT NEXT GEN THROW CHART
Its beautiful in every way. I said this several weeks in a row, but Dak has never looked more in control of a Cowboys offense. He is playing this last month wonderfully.
FILM STUDY
1Q - 13:08 - 2nd and 9 - DAL 42 - D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb pushed ob at NYG 28 for 30 yards
As you look at these clips, notice the motion and the opportunities in throwing on early downs vertically. The Cowboys have collected some vertical playmakers, but you have to deliver the ball. Well, Prescott and Lamb is quickly evolving into what McCarthy had with Favre-Donald Driver and then Rodgers-Davante Adams. These guys are making it look easy and they finally know each-other well enough to take advantage of every chance like this.
1Q - 3:44 - 1st and 10 - NY 14 - C.Lamb right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Red zone solutions. Motion away from Lamb to isolate him and then bring him around on an end around where once he cuts inside he is gone. Very smart play in the open field for a guy who is playing his best football. Brilliantly schemed up run.
If you missed the film and the write-up on the Prescott interception that the Giants schemed up, check it out here. It is worth reviewing.
2Q - 11:25 - 1st and 10 - DAL 40 - D.Prescott pass deep right to C.Lamb pushed ob at NYG 30 for 30 yards
Ok, 2nd Quarter. 1st and 10 deep shots. This is where Dallas can destroy people. Tight splits with everyone way inside the numbers. Short motion from Lamb (meaning motion that never crosses the ball) and it screws up the Giants coverage and they leave Lamb wide open down the sideline. Motion screws up defenses more than it should, so you are wise to employ it to make them sort right at the snap. A very easy explosive play is schemed up here.
2Q - 2:47 - 1st and 10 - DAL 15 - D.Prescott pass deep right to B.Cooks to DAL 49 for 34 yards
This one is why I refuse to concede that Brandin Cooks is not what he was. 1st down deep shots (drink) and use spread them out to see if they really are going to try to man-up across the board. When they do Prescott doesn’t even really need to hold the safety. He is leaning to the Lamb side already, so this is pregame drills. The only thing that didn’t work is it didn’t go for 85 yards. They will have to settle for a quick 34 and the disrespect of thinking they could cover Cooks with a slot corner. Punish that and send a message to the rest of the league.
2Q - 0:22 - 3rd and 9 - NY 10 - D.Prescott scrambles right guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
This one doesn’t require too much commentary. 3rd and long and you know the Giants are going to double Lamb in the slot. So you go empty with five targets. Single-high, cover 1. So, they need five for that, one more to double Lamb, and one more to play safety. So, they need seven defenders and have four rushers. When this happens, Dak knows nobody is watching him if he can get through the front four. This is QB when QB play is easy.
The offense is getting unlocked because now they can dictate terms again. It is a liberating place to be.
3Q - 4:47 - 1st and 10 - NY 41 - D.Prescott pass deep right to M.Gallup for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Hey, a 1st down deep shot (getting a little tipsy here). Cover 1 again and the safety cheats to Lamb. This is a one-on-one pregame passing drill to try to get Michael Gallup going. Football looks easy again.
3Q - 1:33 - 2nd and 10 - NY 12 - D.Prescott pass short right to C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
I just want to show you this one because watching Lamb cross up a cover man is fun. The Giants want to run quarters here, but when Lamb lines up inside (Davante Adams stuff again), you have a safety over him. God bless Bobby McCain but this isn’t going to work. Lamb sets him up for a vertical and then crosses him over with a stutter and it is over.
I have nothing else to tell you today, folks. The Cowboys offense has leveled up. Here are our 10 big stats broken down to show you the first five weeks and the last five. Also, the 2022 stats to show you progress:
I don’t want to get you too excited – yes, I know it was just the Giants – but Dallas has an offense to match its defense right now. Stay healthy and stay on course and it is coming together nicely.
