NBA Chatter Thread

[1bigfan13]

Russell Westbrook has 2nd surgery on knee

Per SI.com....

The Thunder announced Tuesday that All-Star guard Russell Westbrook has undergone a second surgery on his right knee that will cause him to miss training camp, the preseason and the first 4-to-6 weeks of the 2013-14 regular season.

“Russell has been incredible in his work and rehabilitation. He has been pain-free and has performed at a high level during practice, but has experienced recent swelling that had not subsided,” Thunder GM Sam Presti said in a statement. “After careful consideration and recommendations from the medical team, we elected to do the procedure today based on our consulting physician’s belief that the swelling would be alleviated, and in turn give Russell the best chance for sustained performance throughout the season and beyond. During the procedure it was determined that the source of swelling was due to a loose stitch, and fortunately we were also able to confirm that the meniscus has healed properly.”

Presti told reporters during a conference call Tuesday that Westbrook is “obviously disappointed” by the setback.

The approximate recovery timeline puts Westbrook’s return in early-to-mid December. Oklahoma City opens its regular season schedule on Oct. 30 against the Jazz in Utah. He will miss roughly 13 games if his absence is four weeks; he will miss roughly 21 games if his absence is six weeks.


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Sucks that he had a setback. The good news is that the meniscus has healed and that a loose stitch is what caused the swelling.

Hopefully this isn't something that lingers.

It'll be interesting to see if Durant can keep the team above .500 until Russell's return. Luckily we don't play too many heavy hitters early on.

 

[Smitty]

If Durant is anywhere close to one of the 5 best players in the league, the team should be just fine in the regular season even without Westbrook.

 

[1bigfan13]

If Durant is anywhere close to one of the 5 best players in the league, the team should be just fine in the regular season even without Westbrook.

True.

I know he's not as good as Lebron but Lebron had a worse supporting cast in Cleveland and still managed to put up over 50 wins per year.

 

[Smitty]

True.

I know he's not as good as Lebron but Lebron had a worse supporting cast in Cleveland and still managed to put up over 50 wins per year.

Right.

 

[Jiggyfly]

Grantland

October 2, 2013 12:00 AM ET
The NBA's All-Intriguing Team
By Zach Lowe

Oh, baby! The 2013-14 NBA season is nearly here! The optimism of 30 separate media days is wafting into the air like that time New York City smelled like maple syrup. Every player has either lost or gained 15 pounds — whichever works best — and the league's most injury-prone players are all feeling great, thanks for asking! No one is tanking, or "skipping steps," or neglecting their franchise "culture." Dwight Howard is talking about shooting 75 percent on free throws. Giddyup!

We never stop thinking about the NBA, but it's time to sharpen our focus on the 2013-14 season. That starts here, with a look at the 10 players I'm most curious-slash-excited to watch this season. I've tried to steer away from the obvious, which means minimizing the presence of both superstars and second-year players with drool-worthy skill sets. We're all excited to watch LeBron James, Jonas Valanciunas, and Andre Drummond. JaVale McGee is a permanent art exhibit at this point. The goal is (mostly) to highlight players whose degree of short- and long-term improvement could define the half-decade arc of a franchise, semi-known commodities operating in new contexts, and straight-up unsolved mysteries.

Starters

PG: Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns

It's a bummer we won't immediately get to see "Eric Bledsoe, full-blown NBA starting point guard," but with the Suns in total rebuild mode, Goran Dragic could be out the door the moment Phoenix finds anyone willing to give up a future asset or two.

Bledsoe is quietly one of the more divisive players in the league among executives. There are a lot of higher-ups who view him as an All-Star in waiting, but there's a competing current of skepticism about Bledsoe's ability to run a team solo for 35 minutes per game — a feeling his strong per-minute numbers won't translate. He's sort of like pre-Rockets James Harden in this way, only with a lower ceiling.

There are no concerns about his defense. Bledsoe is a long-armed terror capable of generating steals without sacrificing sound position, and his massive wingspan allows him to hound bigger players; Jeff Hornacek, the Suns' new head coach, has talked about trying Bledsoe on shooting guards when Bledsoe and Dragic play together.

The skepticism surrounds Bledsoe's offense. Defenses don't respect his shooting, which limits his value off the ball and can make it hard for Bledsoe to get to the rim on pick-and-rolls. He hit 40 percent of his 3s last season, a massive jump, but he took only 79 triples, and teams are generally happy to let him shoot. He shot only 29 percent on long 2-pointers last season, one of the dozen worst marks in the league among players who jack them regularly, and those elbow jumpers are the very shots for which Bledsoe has to settle when defenses wall off the paint.

He can also be frighteningly turnover-prone, though he cut his rate last season to sub-disaster levels. Playing with Chris Paul and (to a much lesser extent) Jamal Crawford deflated Bledsoe's assist rate, but those numbers1 still ranked on the very low end for point guards even when you isolate the minutes he played without Paul.

But you can see Paul's influence in ways that bode well. Bledsoe has surprisingly good floor vision, and he has taken on some of Paul's sophisticated hesitation moves — the start-and-stop dribbles that allow a good point guard to keep his bounce alive, penetrate further, and coax defenders off balance. He even wields his ass as a weapon, in true CP3 style, keeping point guard defenders behind him and forcing helpers to linger in front of him.

He gets all the basic point guard reads — when shooters will be in the corners, what defensive rotation is coming next — and he was dynamite at scurrying underneath the basket, drawing a defense's full attention, and then finding cutters (especially Matt Barnes) darting to the rim. He just hasn't been able to execute them all consistently.

The questions are real, and in a league loaded with top point guards, I'd be mildly surprised if Bledsoe ever makes an All-Star team. The Clippers scored at a rate slightly below the league's average when Bledsoe ran things without Paul, but it wasn't a disaster, and Bledsoe had to play a ton of minutes with big men who brought zero shooting/spacing. It will be interesting to watch him work with Channing Frye and Markieff Morris this season, and the Suns might help by simplifying things and pushing the pace — a must for Hornacek. Having Dragic around will lessen Bledsoe's burden and free him some to work off the ball. But the talent level here is obviously going to be low.

SG: Evan Turner, Philadelphia 76ers

Turner is entering the last season of his rookie contract on a tanking team, and if the Sixers get the sniff of just a decent offer for him, he could be out the door fast. But until then, he'll have the chance to work as a primary ball handler and perhaps prove to the new Sixers regime that he can fit their preferred style.

And that's a long shot, even though Turner hit at about league-average rates on both corner and non-corner 3s last season — a crucial part of his development. But he still doesn't shoot much from deep for a high-usage player, and defenses happily ignore him in order to clog up more threatening stuff in the paint.

The rest of Turner's offense is a bit of a mess. I'm not sure there's a player in the league with a bigger gap between style and substance. Turner looks fantastic. He's got a nifty herky-jerky game full of crossovers, behind-the-back dribbles, abrupt pull-ups, and spins that dazzle when they work. But they too often go almost literally nowhere. Turner puts a lot of aesthetically pleasing effort into moving from 20 to 18 feet away from the basket, but the result is usually a contested midrange jumper. Even when Turner gets a head of steam and some space on the pick-and-roll, he tends to stop the moment he sees a help defender lurking, and then spin backward into a brutally tough midrange shot.

And he's not even a bad midrange shooter! He's about average. But "average" isn't good enough when a guy takes a ton of midrangers and rarely supplements them with rim attacks or free throws — especially not for the new efficiency-oriented front office of Sam Hinkie & Co. Turner's an average wing defender at best with a poor first step and so-so habits.

Turner still holds some appeal to old-guard GMs who remember when teams barely used the 3-point shot and needed ball handlers who could find slivers of space even with all 10 players packed below the top of the key. But that league doesn't exist anymore.

SF: Jeff Green, Boston Celtics

Green gets the small forward slot, since Boston has a bunch of bigs who need minutes — Brandon Bass, Kris Humphries, Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger, Vitor Faverani (don't laugh, the C's like him!) — and a wing in Gerald Wallace who probably works better than Green as a small-ball power forward.

Green split his minutes between the forward positions last season, and he looked good on offense spotting up around pick-and-rolls or bulling his way to the rim on drives with the floor spread. He nailed 46 percent of his corner 3s, a killer mark, and he was able to spot up for a lot of those even as the small forward in traditional lineups, in part because of all the focus Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Rajon Rondo drew. Teams even left him open in the strongside corner, usually a no-no, because they were so concerned about actions involving two of those three stars.

Everything changes now. Green will have to work harder for shots, but he'll also get to work differently. Boston rarely allowed Green to run pick-and-rolls, or even to catch the ball flying off screens and going to his right — where Green almost always goes. Almost all his dribble drives had high degrees of difficulty — isolation attacks after sets designed for other Celtics went nowhere. And Green, with his rare combination of size and speed, did well driving past bigger defenders and right through smaller ones.

We'll see some of that this season, and more of Boston working Green in the post against shorter wing players — a hit-or-miss proposition. But we'll also see if Green can adapt to more involved modes of offense, and if he can progress as a defender outside of one-on-one situations. Green has some trade cachet, despite what is still an above-market contract.

F/C: Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz

There is still huge optimism around Favors as he enters his fourth season; a slight majority of league executives I polled in the summer said they would take Favors over DeMarcus Cousins long-term. But the idea that Favors might be a true franchise player took a bit of a hit last season, when his developmental curve flattened out.

The questions come mostly on offense, where accumulated flashes of brilliance make Favors appear much more productive than he actually is. He's explosive enough to catch the ball on a pick-and-roll near the foul line and dunk without a dribble — a proto–Tyson Chandler. But Favors shot just 42 percent out of the pick-and-roll last season, a shockingly low number; that mark ranked 90th among 112 players who finished at least 50 pick-and-rolls as the roll man last season, per Synergy, and lots of the guys below him were pick-and-pop shooters.

The cause jumps off the tape: Favors just takes too many tough shots. He gets a little skittish when he catches the ball in space and sees a third help defender waiting for him, in part because he's not yet confident as a passer on the move. Utah ran Favors in a ton of side pick-and-rolls, especially on the right wing, and Favors would often settle for a tricky little jumper from the edge of the paint after catching the ball, turning to face the hoop, and seeing a defender in his way:

Mathis2

Those look like easy shots, but they're not; the league as a whole shoots about as poorly from that in-between range as it does on long 2-pointers. And if he doesn't take that sort of jumper, Favors will sometimes just career into bodies without a plan.

And yet the positive finishes are so, so tantalizing. If he has enough space, he can catch and dunk before the defense can react. And he'll sometimes catch, take one dribble, and loft a feathery lefty layup that could make Matt Harpring just start screaming "JAZZ NATION!" over and over until he dissolves into a puddle.

The same dichotomy is true of Favors's post-up game — lots of very difficult misses sandwiched around a few spins and drop steps and jump hooks that find their way in. Favors will get many more chances this season with Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap gone, and Utah's defense has always been stingier with Favors on the floor. He's quick enough to contain pick-and-rolls in any defensive system, he's already one of the 15 or so best two-way rebounders in the league, and he's a legitimately terrifying help defender who alters shots he doesn't block. The Jazz were ultra-stingy last season when Favors and Enes Kanter shared the floor, but they'll have to prove that can translate against starter-level competition — and that Utah can score when they play together.

The lack of anything even resembling an average passing point guard will hurt, just as it did last season. Any big man looks better alongside a pick-and-roll partner who can get deep into a defense and time interior passes just right.

F/C: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans

Davis is the exception to my rule against second-year players. The Pelicans had a fascinating offseason, shifting into "win now" mode in the potentially franchise-defining trade (for both franchises involved) of Nerlens Noel for Jrue Holiday, as well as capping themselves out behind a high-priced trio of ball-dominant players. It was a fun peek at one version of the team-building process — a kickoff point for wonky NBA debates.

But it obscured the obvious big picture: If Davis can become one of the top five players in the league, the Pelicans will someday find the surrounding roster of a title contender. Davis will miss Greivis Vasquez's distribution skills, but there are still plenty of handlers here, and Davis has already made huge progress in the little tricks of footwork that will get him open looks near the basket. He got better last season at cutting to the rim on pick-and-rolls, using the sort of change-of-pace ballet any big needs to secure those juicy lob dunks. And when the Pellies used Ryan Anderson or Robin Lopez in the pick-and-roll, forcing Davis's man to slide into help position, Davis learned to shift into open spaces along the baseline.

He's going to be a devastating off-ball force on offense. But to make The Leap, he'll need to develop more skills with the ball and actually become the sort of defender everyone is certain he can be. He was unsteady on defense last season, lunging too soon or too far to try to contain point guards on the pick-and-roll, biting on pump fakes, and looking at times almost as if he were running around on ice. But the instincts and the raw potential are there, and Monty Williams, the team's coach, has told me he's optimistic the team can survive defensively with the Davis-Anderson combination — especially with Holiday in Vasquez's place at the top.

Davis didn't do much productive stuff with the ball last season, though Williams allowed him to handle it now and then at the elbows. He settled mostly for jumpers, which he shot nearly as poorly as Bledsoe, but he also showed he can drive by slower players with both hands. He'll have more space to do that if he gets extended time with Anderson hanging around the 3-point arc.

Davis is just 20. The Pelicans are playing the long game here, even if they need to hang around the playoff race this season — to please their owner, Tom Benson, and to minimize the pain of sending a 2014 first-rounder to the Sixers. But the long game with Davis starts now.

Bench

Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers

Dirty little secret: The Thompson shooting-hand switch is a less dramatic story inside the Cavs' offices than it is from the outside. The Cavs knew when they drafted Thompson that he was very nearly ambidextrous and that he was a poor shooter with his left hand. The left-to-right change is something the team contemplated even before drafting him.

But it's going to be fun watching this play out as a real-time NBA lab experiment, even if it started in the FIBA Americas tournament, when Thompson (shooting righty) upped his free throw percentage but hit a ho-hum number from the floor. Thompson's righty floater was already a funky weapon on the pick-and-roll last season, and he generally expanded his game — as a finisher, rebounder, and even as a passer on the pick-and-roll — after a knee injury and a scary blood clot ended Anderson Varejao's season. He's an active, speedy defender, though not much of a rim protector.

Thompson (and the rest of the Cavs) are also fascinating because of the glut of weirdo bigs here — a hand switcher, two star-level guys with long injury histories (Varejao and Andrew Bynum), the rare surprise no. 1 pick (Anthony Bennett), last year's first-rounder (Tyler Zeller), and even Earl Clark, who probably has to play more small forward this season. If they get even so-so health, the Cavs are a real playoff threat. If they don't, they could be a massive disappointment, prone to a panic trade that GM Chris Grant might need to make to placate owner Dan Gilbert's win-now ambitions. Thompson could be part of the bait in such a trade, so his development is important in lots of different ways.

Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs

Let's just say I'm excited enough that there's more to come on this topic in the nearish future.

Rudy Gay, Toronto Raptors

Watching tape of the Rudy-era Toronto offense, I can't help but think of George Karl's teams in Denver. Those clubs often featured an undersize water bug point guard (Ty Lawson or Kyle Lowry) and two wings with unreliable outside shots. Both Denver and Rudy-era Toronto featured a ton of pick-and-rolls all over the floor as well as plays on which those so-so shooting wings would fly off sideline screens and catch the ball on the move.

And that's where the similarities ended — at the moment of that catch. Denver's wings knew they had to keep the motion going — hesitation meant death, and benching. Even if they had no obvious opening, Andre Iguodala or Danilo Gallinari would catch the ball, maintain speed, and either try to drive into the lane or pitch the ball out to the next man in line.

Gay and DeMar DeRozan, trade candidates if Toronto plays poorly over a very tough first 35 games, don't operate this way. They like to either launch midrange shots off the catch or hold the ball, pause, and survey the scene, giving the defense a chance to reset itself.

Good things might happen if they just kept the damn thing moving. Both are artful at slithering through tight spaces on the way to the rim. Neither is a good passer, but they can at least make the functional pass, and DeRozan got better last season at understanding where his teammates were on the floor.2

Look, Gay's never going to live up to his contract or work as a major plus on defense. Toronto just needs him to be average on that end and refine his shoot/pass/dribble choices a bit on offense. It will help if he can rediscover the 3-point stroke that seems to have vanished since his shoulder injury in 2011. Gay shot an unthinkable 9-of-44 on spot-up triples as a Raptor, but he had eye surgery in the summer to correct his vision, and he could get plenty of decent looks from deep with Lowry and DeRozan doing their fair share of pick-and-roll work. Toronto also played Gay at power forward some toward the end of last season, and with only three reliable bigs on the roster, they should revisit that style.

Gay has a $19.3 million player option for next season, and though Toronto expected him to opt out when it traded for him last season, the league is still trying to suss out Gay's plans — and his trade value.

Andrea Bargnani, New York Knicks

The trade was bad. The Raptors weren't going to amnesty Bargnani — that was always slated for Linas Kleiza — but they were happy to dump him for almost nothing, and the Knicks offered them three draft picks.

We all know the flaws: Bargnani's a shooting specialist who hasn't hit a league-average mark from 3-point range since 2010. He might be the worst rebounding big man ever. He's a useful post defender but cartoonishly bad at every other aspect of defense.

But he presents Mike Woodson with an interesting lineup option, and Woodson probably leads the league in interesting lineup options. There's a notion that Bargnani's presence as a "power forward" might mean less of Carmelo Anthony in that spot this season. That's true in a very basic sense, but perhaps not in the sense that matters. A lot of teams that kept two big men on the floor against New York's small-ball lineups still had their own small forward defend Anthony, preferring to hide the spare big man on the perimeter against Jason Kidd/Ronnie Brewer types. In these alignments, the Knicks didn't gain leverage because Anthony was blowing by some plodding big man. They gained leverage because Anthony could bully smaller wing players, either in the post or via the pick-and-roll, while the Knicks surrounded him with three shooters and Tyson Chandler.

Bargnani's presence doesn't change the core effect of that setup. The Anthony–Chandler–Steve Novak trio logged 279 minutes last season, and teams sometimes had their big men hide on Novak. Ditto for the Anthony–Chandler–Chris Copeland trio, another group featuring a center and a nominal "power forward" alongside Anthony. The positional designation doesn't really matter; the shooting does. The Knicks gain dynamism when they play "true" small lineups, and slotting Metta World Peace in Bargnani's "power forward" place might bring the best mix of "big" and "small." But Bargnani will get an interesting opportunity here.

Bargnani can shoot, at least when he's open. He generally shot quite well when he played alongside Chris Bosh as a true no. 2 or no. 3 choice. And he can put the ball on the floor, via a super-convincing pump fake, if defenders close out on him hard.

He's never been all that good at anything other than spot-up 3s, though. But if he limits himself to those attempts in Melo-centric lineups, Bargnani might revive his career. The other end is a different story. Pairing Anthony and Bargnani will be dangerous, even with Chandler around to anchor things. Smart teams will simply put Chandler in pick-and-rolls, hoping to at least pull him away from the rim, confident zero rim protection will exist behind him. But this will be fun to watch.

Marcus Thornton, Sacramento Kings

Remember this guy? Remember when the Hornets were geniuses for finding two ultra-productive rookie guards — Thornton and Darren Collison — late in the 2009 draft? Collison has plateaued (at best) to the point the Clippers were able to steal him this summer, and I'm not sure a single person outside Sacramento has thought about Thornton for more than 30 combined seconds since the Kings signed him to a four-year, $31 million contract in 2011.

That's right: Marcus Thornton will make almost $17 million combined over the next two seasons. He might be the most anonymous highly paid player in the NBA. Thornton two years ago looked like he might become a decent NBA ball handler, even though opponents have long understood he's a gunner on the pick-and-roll who doesn't see the floor well. But he fell apart last season, hitting just 29.9 percent of his shots out of the pick-and-roll; among 151 players who finished at least 50 pick-and-rolls last season, that mark ranked 140th.

Even worse: Thornton got to the line less than ever last season, and continued to dish assists at an irresponsibly low rate for a high-usage perimeter player. He just doesn't appear to have the combination of vision and unselfishness that makes a good passer. He exacerbated things by pulling up for contested 20-footers and either splitting traps or immediately crossing over into the path of his roll man partner — little tics that led to a surge in turnovers.

Thornton has always been a minus defender who teeters between almost acceptably below average and catastrophic, with a tendency to let his mind drift away from the ball.

One thing he did very well: shoot the lights out last season as a spot-up guy from 3-point range. He nailed a tidy 43 percent of his spot-up triples, per Synergy Sports, and he was smart to rejigger his shot selection so that just about half his attempts came from beyond the arc. He's good at hunting open spaces, and he can make shots under pressure.

But he has never put all his skills together in one season, and at 26, it's unclear if there's really a complete NBA player here. There are always minutes for shot makers with 3-point range, but minutes become harder to find if those players can't add dollops of playmaking and defense. The Kings, with DeMarcus Cousins locked up to a ridiculous max-level contract extension, could still work themselves to something like $6 million or so in cap flexibility this summer, and the books get much cleaner after 2014-15. But they're a deal away from opening up more space in the short term, and a Thornton revival would at least put him on the trade market map.

 

[Jiggyfly]

Grantland

October 8, 2013 12:00 AM ET
The King's Court
By Zach Lowe

We're finally about done with an offseason in which trades — in Boston, Brooklyn, Indiana, Phoenix, Detroit, Milwaukee, New Orleans, and Philly — outpaced free agency in reshaping the league. Only one franchise-level guy, Dwight Howard, changed teams as an outright free agent, though the sign-and-trade of Andre Iguodala to Golden State comes close. The middle class of NBA players took a financial hit, teams at the top either cut players or generally stood pat, and a bunch in the middle rather loudly announced their intention to either win now or, um, win a little bit less now.

With just three weeks (!) before tipoff, it's time for my annual attempt to categorize the NBA's 30 teams into distinct tiers.

The Contenders, Group A

Miami Heat

It was true in July 2010, and it's true now: If all three of Miami's stars are healthy, both of mind and body, nobody is going to beat this team four times in seven tries in May and June. But that "if healthy" stipulation has happened exactly zero times since the Heat threw that little pep rally for themselves — DOS MINUTOS! — in July 2010. LeBron James fell apart in the 2011 Finals, Chris Bosh battled injuries through the 2012 playoffs, and Dwyane Wade has dealt with serious knee issues in each of the last two seasons. Miami had to unfreeze Mike Miller to loosen spacing in both championship runs, and it chose cash over title odds in using the amnesty ax on Miller instead of the borderline useless Joel Anthony.

Miller was the team's primary "big wing" insurance against a Shane Battier shooting slump, since Erik Spoelstra is reluctant to overtax super-small lineups featuring three of the Heat's smaller guards (Mario Chalmers, Norris Cole, Ray Allen, Wade) next to LeBron and a lone big man. Defending power forwards wore Battier down, perhaps contributing to a prolonged slump he corrected in the Finals in part by aiming left.

The Heat are going to be on the precipice at some point in the playoffs. They always are. They'll need an extra oomph from someone along the way, and with almost zero financial flexibility, Pat Riley has tried to find it with high-upside minimum-salary gambles on Michael Beasley and Greg Oden. Both will likely flame out, leaving the oomph burden on guys left over from the repeat titles.

But that's still enough for Miami to maintain favorite status, especially since Spoelstra will likely ease up a bit this regular season. That might mean fewer minutes for the stars, and more "big" lineups that spare James and Battier from too much jostling with David West types. Beasley and Oden provide some interesting lineup flexibility, and a full season of Chris Andersen will help. So would something — anything — from Rashard Lewis. But in Year 4, this team knows exactly what it is on both sides of the floor — a pace-and-space, 3-point shooting machine that has an extra pick-and-roll blitzing gear on defense.

San Antonio Spurs

They're favorites in the Western Conference, given Russell Westbrook's knee issues and the lack of a proven third option on the wing in Oklahoma City. San Antonio could have nabbed big-time cap room by renouncing both Tiago Splitter and Manu Ginobili, and it surely flirted with a home run free-agent acquisition. But it settled on bringing back last year's group, banking on staying power from the old guard and continued internal development from the young core.

We know what we're getting here: the league's most diligent motion-based offense, with Tony Parker and Tim Duncan as its hubs, and a defense that revived itself based on Duncan's nimbler game, Kawhi Leonard's ascension, and Gregg Popovich's patience in building the Duncan-Splitter pairing. The Spurs were basically co-champs last season, and though we should expect some decline from Duncan and Ginobili, the younger guys are ready to pick up the slack. Leonard especially showed he's ready for more in the Finals. Marco Belinelli provides some Ginobili meltdown insurance; he's bigger than Gary Neal, nearly as good a shooter, and much more polished at all the other stuff — ballhandling, passing, and defense.1 The world is curious to see what the Spurs do with Jeff Ayres (formerly Pendergraph) after using their mini midlevel exception to offer him nearly twice the minimum salary. The Spurs also have some trade flexibility, with two midsize expiring contracts (Matt Bonner, Boris Diaw) and some interesting, seldom-used international prospects.

In a conference filled with teams facing (very intriguing) questions, the Spurs are a known commodity that may still have some upside.

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls' starting lineup — Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler, Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, Joakim Noah — has logged exactly zero NBA minutes together. Ditto for that same lineup, only with Taj Gibson in Boozer's place, a switcheroo Tom Thibodeau likes to pull in crunch time of close games.

Rose and Butler logged just 74 minutes together in 12 games in 2011-12 before Rose blew out his knee, and Rose returns now to find Butler entrenched as the two-way starting shooting guard Chicago has dreamed of while cycling through Keith Bogans, Richard Hamilton, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer, and others. Rose's health is a bit of an unknown, but he has looked fine in the preseason, and all the noise coming out of Chicago is positive.

This team lurks as the biggest threat to Miami. It's had the league's best record in both healthy Rose-Thibodeau seasons, and home-court advantage in Game 7 might prove essential against the champs. We know it'll bring it on defense, when both of the above lineups could prove terrifying; the Gibson group will be in the running for stingiest heavy-usage lineup in the league. Chicago is about flooding the strong side with extra help defenders, and with Butler alongside Deng and Noah, no team will have more tenacious help-and-recover quickness on the floor. And remember: Chicago in 2011-12 solidified itself as a top-10 offense before Rose's injury.

There are questions about depth, since both Kirk Hinrich and Mike Dunleavy are aging and the guys behind them are totally unproven. Ownership could mandate a tax-slashing salary dump at some point. But this team is going to be brutal to play against.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Go ahead and write them off. Westbrook's hurt, and the James Harden trade has turned into exactly zero players with an NBA footprint. The Thunder run a stagnant offense, and even if Westbrook's injury only costs them two or three wins, that may still knock them down to the no. 4 or no. 5 seed in the perilous Western Conference. (Seriously: Being in the Western Conference is like playing one of the final levels of the original Zelda for Nintendo. If you open a door with less than half your health remaining and see 10 of those blue sword-wielding dudes who dart around the room carrying giant shields, just run back through the door.)

But they're staying in the top tier as long as Kevin Durant and Westbrook are around, with a good chance to be healthy when it counts, each with upside still to realize. Same goes for Serge Ibaka, who just turned 24, and for several young guys with a chance to learn on the fly before the games really start to matter. Oklahoma City has completed its evolution into a long-armed, paint-clogging defensive menace, tying the Spurs for the no. 3 spot in points allowed per possession last season.

The Harden void will continue to hurt, especially in the early part of the second and fourth quarters, when Harden and then Kevin Martin terrorized bench units via pleasing two-man stuff with Nick Collison. But the centrality of that role always declines in the playoffs, when Durant and Westbrook play more. Jeremy Lamb especially should be ready for some responsibility. And if he's not, I'm betting on Sam Presti to spin some of his young assets, plus a potential unprotected pick from the Mavs, into an impact veteran cog.

The Contenders, Group B: Prove It

Indiana Pacers

The closest among this bunch to a Group A contender, if only because the four-man core — Paul George, David West, George Hill, Roy Hibbert — is entering its third season together. Lance Stephenson has vaulted himself into this group, though his unrestricted free agency next summer looms as a major question for what is suddenly a high-payroll team, and Danny Granger is back. Luis Scola can work well next to both West and Hibbert, and will likely allow Frank Vogel to cut West's minutes if need be. The gap between C.J. Watson and the bricktastic 2012-13 version of D.J. Augustin is about as large as the gap between Ravenclaw and Hufflepuff.

Indiana clearly matches up well against Miami; it kills the Heat on the boards, and no one on Miami (absent a healthy Oden) can even begin to deal with Hibbert's size on the block. Indiana's big ball also comes in handy against fellow behemoths Chicago and Brooklyn.

But we need to see if this team can score enough over the long haul. It scored at a league-average rate after a catastrophic start, with the improvement coinciding almost exactly with Hibbert's recovery from a wrist injury. Granger and Scola will provide relief if the injury bug finally hits one of Indiana's young core.

But the Pacers were prone to ugly, turnover-heavy droughts; taking Miami the distance was impressive, but they had trouble against a limping, disorganized New York team one round earlier. Indiana needs George to make a mini-leap as a ball handler, and for Hibbert to show he can log 35-plus minutes of efficient two-way ball on demand — something he had never done before last year's playoffs.

Memphis Grizzlies

Right there with Indiana, nudging up into the "Group A" category. We know two things: (1) An elite defense is slightly more important to winning a title than an elite offense, and (2) the Grizz are going to make you earn every point every night. Kosta Koufos will be the best backup Marc Gasol has ever had, and the Koufos–Ed Davis combination should help new head coach Dave Joerger make sure Gasol and Zach Randolph are fresh for the playoffs.2

Joerger understands the need to juice up a below-average offense with both pace and spacing, and the Grizz will be deeper in quality, multifaceted wings than they've been since both Shane Battier and O.J. Mayo were here. Memphis scored at a borderline top-10 rate after the Rudy Gay–Tayshaun Prince deal, but the Spurs exposed that as fool's gold. We just need to see how it works in real life — if the Grizz can keep Miller in a cryogenic chamber until April; if Quincy Pondexter can build on a very solid playoff run; and how Joerger handles the backup point guard spot.

Houston Rockets

The potential for a championship roster is there, but there are too many questions to get Houston, flush with two of the league's 15 best players, into the top tier. The Rox need to either feed Howard all the delicious post-ups he wants or trick him into feeling like a centerpiece while really leaning on the Harden/Howard pick-and-roll that should be their foundation. Houston will also slow down some after playing at the league's fastest pace last season, and the coaching staff has been blunt in detailing how Harden, Jeremy Lin, and Chandler Parsons must improve their defensive fundamentals and/or effort.

The power forward spot is up for grabs, and Houston is a very strong bet to make a semi-significant trade or two during the season. Let's see how the pieces fit, and whether Howard's back is healthy enough to transform the shaky Rockets' D into a top-10 outfit.

Los Angeles Clippers

Here's the thing about the Western Conference, as tough as it is: How many of the top six teams would scare you out of playing small ball? Memphis surely would, but once you leave the Grindhouse, even the teams that generally prefer to play "big" — San Antonio, Oklahoma City, etc. — aren't exactly teeming with back-to-the-basket scorers.

In Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, the Clippers are leaning on two big men who can't shoot free throws and have no track record of functioning as an above-average defensive pairing. Their backups are Antawn Jamison, Ryan Hollins, and Byron Mullens, and with apologies to those guys, if any of them is playing major minutes of an entire playoff series, you're in trouble. (Chris Paul might murder Mullens this season if Mullens uses the same shot selection decision tree he relied upon in Charlotte. "Do I have the ball? If 'YES,' then shoot immediately. If 'NO,' then pout and/or demand ball.") Los Angeles is also loaded with wings, raising the possibility it might be able to lean on smaller lineups with Griffin at center.

But the path to a title generally lies in long arms, rim protection, and size. Small ball is an option, but the Clippers know they'd be safer developing the Griffin-Jordan combination into a more playable duo. Doc Rivers will help after mastering Thibodeau's system, and the Clips will keep a roster spot open for any big man who might become available. But they're also over the tax, and may well be again next season, raising the possibility of a midseason money dump.

Brooklyn Nets

The tax champs are a well-constructed group, deep on the wings, able to play big and small, and with much more shooting than last year's outfit. They're old, sure, but they're smart; the veterans will share both the ball and shot-creation duties if doing so leads to wins and the preservation of their bodies. Jumping to the next tier is about improving a defense that ranked just 18th in points allowed per possession last season, and the acquisition of Kevin Garnett alone should jump Brooklyn a half-dozen spots up the list. Garnett remains a very good defensive rebounder, solid enough that Brooklyn should be able to hang on the glass with Brook Lopez at center. Remember: The Nets' rebounding fell to league-worst levels last season when Lopez, a historically poor rebounder (but an improved one), played without Reggie Evans. And the Nets won't be able to get through a beefed-up East playing an offensive zero like Evans heavy minutes.

Garnett's health is key, and there are just a ton of guys here on the wrong side of 30. Brooklyn is going to be very, very good, but we have to see how healthy they are in the spring; whether Jason Kidd (with a huge assist from assistant coach Lawrence Frank) can juggle this rotation; and whether Miami's speed overwhelms this verryyyy sloowwwww group if the two meet in the playoffs.

The Juicy Middle

New York Knicks
What a wacky bunch. New York is everyone's choice for the East's no. 5 spot, and though it didn't have the starry offseason of its crosstown rivals, New York managed some very nice moves despite lacking any financial flexibility. Nabbing Metta World Peace and Beno Udrih on the minimum is a smart way to leverage big-city appeal, and each provides Mike Woodson with flexible lineup options the 3-happy Knicks used to baffle opponents last season. Heck, I'm even on record as bullish about the potential — on offense — of a Carmelo Anthony–Andrea Bargnani–Tyson Chandler trio, which would mimic the effect of small-ball groups that unleashed Anthony's scoring and post passing last season. World Peace and Iman Shumpert could be an interesting defensive wing pairing in smaller lineups, though World Peace is declining.

But there's no road map from last year's below-average defense to the sort of unit any legit contender needs. It's nice to have Kenyon Martin behind Chandler, but Martin's 36 with a long injury history, and there are just too many defensive minuses here — too many guards who get smashed on picks, too few weakside rim protectors for when teams put Chandler into the pick-and-roll. If there's a team in the East's top five with a scary downside, this is it — and that's before we contemplate the future, and whatever is left of Amar'e Stoudemire.

Golden State Warriors

There's a very good chance we'll realize 30 games into the season that Golden State belongs in the group above this one. Iguodala should fit nicely, providing Preacher Mark some small-ball options and allowing Golden State to transition away from a disastrously bad zone defense it used when it couldn't hide both Stephen Curry and Jarrett Jack. Internal expectations are sky-high for Harrison Barnes, and this team's offense should be dynamite for years to come. Andrew Bogut looks healthy, and a healthy Bogut anchoring the team's weaker half — its defense — pushes the Warriors' ceiling higher.

But Golden State had the point differential last season of a team barely over .500, and it got a season of unprecedented health from Curry — until his ankle issues flared up again in the postseason. The notion of "injury-prone" is a thorny one, a label fans and media toss around too often with false certainty, but it's fair to wonder about Curry's ankle at this point. And that ankle means everything.

Golden State did a nice job filling out the bench on the cheap, but none of the new guys is a heavy-minutes rotational piece at the level of Jack and Carl Landry.

The Eastern Conference Morass

Atlanta Hawks
The best team in this group, and the big early favorite for the coveted no. 6 spot in the Eastern Conference, now that Emeka Okafor's injury leaves a minutes void for Kevin Seraphin, Snakey the Snake, and Jan Vesely (whom I believe is behind Snakey in the current Wiz rotation).

This is just a vintage 21st-century Hawks team. They're going to be good, and potentially very good, but not good enough to make any real noise in the postseason. It's possible they could win a round if they fall into the right matchup against a banged-up opponent, but there's not quite enough outside-in creativity on the perimeter (beyond Jeff Teague), rim protection, or long-armed defense on the wing to go further. But the starting lineup is going to be a pain to guard, with shooting at all five positions, Kyle Korver jetting around screens, Teague zipping around on the pick-and-roll, and Paul Millsap — instantly tradable on a cheap new deal, by the way — working some wily off-the-dribble stuff. Gustavo Ayon and Pero Antic are going to do their best to replace the Zaza Pachulia–Ivan Johnson entertainment factor off the bench.

Washington Wizards

The first of several solid candidates for a panic trade, only they don't have quite the trove of assets of some other teams with general managers facing job insecurity and "Win now, damn it!" pressure from fat-cat owners. Emeka Okafor's a solid player, and an especially solid defender, but his injury is less about his skill than the chasm between Okafor and the guys behind him in the rotation; almost all of Washington's quality depth is on the wing now.

Nene has to stay healthy, and that has never been a winning proposition. Al Harrington will help if he can reprise the physical small-ball power forward role he played in Denver two seasons ago, and though Washington had the league's worst offense last season, the indicators are good that it'll score enough with the trio of John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Nene on the court at once.

Detroit Pistons

Joe Dumars won't call this a playoffs-or-bust season, so I will: It's a playoffs-or-bust season for Detroit, especially given the ripple effects of Okafor's injury and the general unpredictability of the rest of the morass. The challenge: Detroit cannot afford to fall behind after starting 4-20 in 2011-12 and 0-8 last season, and that means Maurice Cheeks has to work out a lot of dicey rotation questions quickly. Detroit will start the fascinating Josh Smith–Greg Monroe–Andre Drummond ultra-big trio, with an often inefficient point guard in Brandon Jennings orchestrating on what will be a very, very cramped floor.

The last starting spot is up for grabs, and if Cheeks gives it to Rodney Stuckey, a non-shooter, Detroit's offense could crater. All three of Chauncey Billups, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Kyle Singler would be better options, and though Gigi Datome lacks the foot speed to play the position, Cheeks has to find minutes for him. Datome is a deadeye shooter on the wing who should also be able to play some small-ball power forward — perhaps rendering Jonas Jerebko expendable.

Cheeks has to learn a lot of stuff, and quickly — the right balance between lineup types; the best wing combinations; whether the league will let him implant an electric shock device he can activate whenever Smith rises for a 20-footer; and how well the Monroe-Drummond frontcourt can work defensively. Detroit is another candidate for a "win now" trade, though it's tough to find any appealing bait if it doesn't dangle Monroe — perhaps expendable now, with Smith aboard and Monroe's agent, David Falk, almost certainly demanding a max contract.3

Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee has revamped nearly its entire roster, going all-in on 3-point shooting, Brandon Knight's work ethic, and LARRY SANDERS! erasing the leaks that will come from just about every direction on defense. O.J. Mayo can work as a decent secondary ball handler (and Caron Butler still thinks he can), which is good, because Knight has failed to read the floor in very basic ways any starting point guard must manage.

But Knight is young, Mayo will help, and the Bucks are generally tough to defend whenever Ersan Ilyasova is around to pull an opposing big man far from the basket. Ilyasova has a lot of trade value around the league, and the Bucks are curious to see if SANDERS! and John Henson (and their arms) can function well together on offense. The Bucks project as mediocre on both ends of the ball.

The Eastern Swing Teams

Toronto Drakes
The starting lineup of Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Rudy Gay, Amir Johnson, and Jonas Valanciunas outscored opponents by 85 points in just 253 minutes together — the equivalent of nearly 12 points over a full game, on par with some of the league's very best five-man groups. Tyler Hansbrough is an able third big man, Landry Fields has rebuilt his jump shot after elbow surgery, Valanciunas and Terrence Ross have an NBA season under their belts, and the battle for backup minutes behind Lowry has been fierce. In other words: Toronto should be in the thick of the morass for the nos. 6-8 spots.

But everything about the Drakes is uncertain. Lowry's in the last year of his contract, with a checkered NBA past, and Gay may well opt out of the final year of his deal in order to test free agency this summer. DeRozan is overpaid, but still learning.4 Masai Ujiri, the Drakes' new GM, will have chances to blow this roster up if other teams sweating their win totals offer even just a little something for these guys. Go that route, and the Drakes would sink below the morass — and into the high-lottery sweepstakes.

Cleveland Cavaliers

No one has any clue with these guys. If they get, say, 120 combined games between Anderson Varejao and Andrew Bynum, plus the expected development from all their young players, the Cavs could vault right into the no. 6 spot and perhaps even challenge for no. 5. If they get considerably fewer Varejao-Bynum games, they might fail to win even 30 games for the fourth straight year A.L. (After LeBron). Mike Brown will bring some rules-based consistency to a porous defense, but the baseline is so low on that end that even league-average is a reach. Kyrie Irving is a killer on offense, but the small forward position is a mess, and everyone else on the roster is so young as to be something of a question mark.

The Bynum deal effectively caps Cleveland out this season, but the Cavs remain the league's best lower-rung candidate for a foundation-shaking trade. Dan Gilbert is in full foot-stomping "win now" mode, and the Cavs have a bundle of extra first-round picks from all over the league, as well as interesting young assets and future cap flexibility. Keeping the books clean for LeBron this summer, and indefinitely, could cramp Cleveland's trade activity, but it's a swing team in every sense.

The Western Conference Morass: Can Anyone Defend?

Denver Nuggets
Here are the only teams in the last 20 years to win 55 games in one season and miss the playoffs in the next:

• 1996-97 Spurs (David Robinson and Sean Elliott suffer health issues, Tim Duncan tankapalooza)

• 1998-99 Bulls (Current Charlotte Bobcats owner "retires")

• 1998-99 Sonics (Vin Baker falls apart, injuries galore, Sam Perkins leaves)

• 2004-05 Timberwolves (Assorted injuries, Flip Saunders fired, Western Conference insanely stacked)

• 2004-05 Lakers (Lost Shaq and Phil Jackson)

•2008-09 Suns (Amar'e Stoudemire suffers eye injury, Shaq mix is awkward, 46-36 somehow not good enough to make the playoffs in loaded West)

• 2010-11 Cavaliers (Lost LeBron)

So, basically: If you win at an elite level in one season, it's almost unprecedented to miss the playoffs in the next one — unless you lose a transformational superstar and/or played in the Western Conference when it was perhaps the toughest conference in NBA history.

It's going to be very tough again this season, though it's unclear how many wins it will take to slide into the no. 7 or no. 8 spots. And Denver, fresh off 57 wins under George Karl, might be the single hardest team to peg. Several executives suggested it was borderline nuts to slot a 57-win team into the lottery, but a large minority sees them as a major risk to miss the postseason — and perhaps even as likely to do so.

I'm in the latter boat. There is just too much going on here. The team's best all-around player is in Golden State. Its idiosyncratic coach is gone, and Brian Shaw, the new head guy, is rejiggering just about everything on both sides of the ball. Its second-best off-the-bounce threat, Danilo Gallinari, will miss the first portion of the season recovering from knee surgery. Wilson Chandler's 41 percent mark from 3-point range might have been a fluke. Denver's cap sheet this year and next is such that Tim Connelly, the team's new GM, might seek a money-saving trade.

And most damaging of all: There is no reason to trust the Kenneth Faried–JaVale McGee–J.J. Hickson big-man trio to defend adequately.5 The Nuggets are firmly in the mix for one of the last two playoff spots, but they're in that mix — not above it.

Dallas Mavericks

Dallas was a complete mess last season and finished at .500. There's a lot to be said for the notion that Rick Carlisle, a healthy Dirk Nowitzki, and just a competent supporting cast can get a team to 45 wins.

This supporting cast is competent — on offense. Jose Calderon will work as a killer pick-and-roll partner for Nowitzki, and Monta Ellis, not a favorite in this space, should have his best season since 2007-08 working with the greatest shooting big man in history. And Dirk himself slowly rediscovered his off-the-dribble game last season after a creaky start.

Defense will be a bugaboo, but it was last year, too; Dallas ranked just 20th in points allowed per possession, and unless Samuel Dalembert is ready to play 35 minutes a night (spoiler alert: He's not), it might sink lower this season. The team's perimeter depth is mostly unproven, unless Jae Crowder can shoot well enough to play major minutes at small forward, and Shawn Marion is winded just looking at this roster.

Still, Dallas will score enough to stay in the race.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Oh, hey, Chase Budinger is already hurt! Why, basketball gods? Why will you not let this team stay healthy?

The Wolves are like a younger, more polished version of the Mavs, only with a long-term cap picture that is both more expensive (they're capped out through at least this summer) and more uncertain (Kevin Love can already opt out after next season). A healthy Minnesota team, with more shooting via Budinger and Kevin Martin, should finish as one of the league's 10 best offenses — and maybe better. The questions come on the other end, where they hung around the top 10 in points allowed per possession over the first half of last season before falling off.

The Love-Pekovic connection hasn't spent much time on the floor together in three combined seasons, but the Wolves have struggled defensively in those minutes in all three, per NBA.com. Neither offers any threat of shot-blocking, but both can function just fine in coherent schemes — especially if Love kicks some of his bad habits. The Budinger-Martin combo will be dicey, but if the Wolves can hang around the league average on defense, they might end up the best of West's morass.

Portland Trail Blazers

It's all about defense here, too, and as I've written before, I'm skeptical the Blazers can build a good one this season — even with Robin Lopez onboard, and Terry Stotts installing a more conservative pick-and-roll scheme to fit Lopez's strengths. But like the Mavs and Wolves, the Blazers should make a serious push to rank among the league's half-dozen best offenses. They've got a ton of 3-point shooting around a legit post hub in LaMarcus Aldridge, and Nicolas Batum emerged last season as a very nice secondary ball handler in Stotts's "flow" system. For a 15-game stretch after dealing for Eric Maynor, an actual NBA-level bench player, Portland sported the league's best offense, per NBA.com, before spiraling into a season-ending free fall.

And they have a real bench this season! With real NBA players and everything! C.J. McCollum's broken foot dents that depth a bit, but the Blazers have some talent. Gun to my head, they're in the lottery again, but health and some randomness could take them above Denver, Minnesota, and Dallas.

New Orleans Pelicans

Perhaps the most exciting team among this bunch, but also the one with the most to prove — and the one least likely to sneak into the playoffs without a great deal of injury-related luck. The Pellies plan to start Greg Stiemsma at center, and it will be interesting to see how much Monty Williams will go with the Ryan Anderson–Anthony Davis front line. That duo has the potential to unlock some serious spacing and firepower, but it was also flammable defensively last season.

Finding a way to keep two of the Eric Gordon–Jrue Holiday–Tyreke Evans trio relevant when one of them has the ball will be a challenge, but it's one Williams should be able to pull off. Holiday is a solid 3-point shooter, and Gordon was a sniper before two straight lost seasons. Evans is a trickier issue. His commitment to cutting away from the ball comes and goes, and his jumper mostly goes — despite an uptick from deep last season. But he made strides as a pick-and-roll distributor in Sacramento and has shown inklings of a post game.

The Pellies just have a ton to sort out, on both sides of the ball and with Williams's rotation — plus some major potential depth issues. If Davis makes a giant leap on both ends, steadying himself on defense and working his off-the-bounce game more effectively on offense, this is a different conversation.

Just Plain Bad

Los Angeles Lakers
There is just too much that you have to talk yourself into here. Maybe Kobe Bryant will come back sooner, and stronger, than expected! This is the year for Wesley Johnson, baby! Nick Young totally "gets it" now, and he's back in L.A., and that makes him a happy young man! Chris Kaman has a beard, and he's sort of pudgy, and he likes to hunt, and maybe he and Pau Gasol can function nicely together! Steve Nash keeps himself in great shape; he's going to stay healthy! Xavier Henry is killing it in preseason!

Some of that stuff is real. Kaman and Gasol should be able to play well together on offense; Kaman has improved as a passer, even if he still shoots waaaayyyyy too much. Gasol is a genius with the ball. Nash does keep himself in great shape. Kobe is a maniac, in the best way possible. Preseason production can carry over in meaningful ways for individual players.

But this team was a disaster defensively whenever Howard hit the bench last season, and they've replaced Howard with precisely zero plus defenders. Kobe is already well in decline as a defender, and we've no clue when he's coming back, or how he'll look after one of the most devastating injuries a player can suffer. L.A. fans, prepare yourselves: This team is not going to be in the playoff race, and if that's apparent early, the front office will need to pivot and think about trades.

Charlotte Bobcats

There's nowhere to go but up for a team that decided to (sort of) abandon its rebuilding strategy in order to overpay a big man who can't play defense — sort of a problem for the league's worst defense, two years running. But Al Jefferson is a legitimately very good offensive player, and working an inside-out game will make things a bit easier on all the perimeter guys here who need an extra boost when creating offense — Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Gerald Henderson, and the very promising Jeffery Taylor, who dunked all over EuroBasket this summer. Kemba Walker graduated out of that group with an efficient sophomore season, and there are some decent bench cogs here.

But the Bobcats are still going to be really, really bad. At least they're still slated to have ample cap room going forward, even with the Jefferson overpay.

Sacramento Kings

If Mike Malone, a fiery defense-first type, can't get DeMarcus Cousins — owner of a max contract the Kings negotiated against themselves, even though Cousins has no track record of being a helpful NBA player — to stop pouting and get his ass back on defense, the Kings might be in trouble.

But they'll be better this season. Malone will install a hard-and-fast system on defense, will demand rigorous loyalty to it, and will bench guys who can't bring that. The frontcourt is loaded with league-average contributors, and league-average is perfectly fine. Greivis Vasquez can do this thing called "passing," which may confuse fans in Sacramento at first. And this was a top-10 offense, with serious firepower, after the All-Star break.

But getting into the race for the no. 8 spot is a multiyear process. The Kings could gain serious cap flexibility if they manage to deal just one midtier salary during the season.

Back Up the Tanker Truck

Philadelphia 76ers
This is barely an NBA team, and the Sixers aren't really trying to be an NBA team this season. They're carrying by far the most cap room in the league — about $13 million, prime salary dump territory — and they'll gauge the market value of Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young as other teams figure themselves out. Brett Brown, the team's new coach, will be free to try a lot of things both on and off the floor, and that will be interesting to monitor. But this team is going to be terrible, by design.

Boston Celtics

Boston has the veteran talent and potential defensive chops to stay in a lot of games, but the idea that these guys are going to challenge for the no. 8 spot is way overblown. The C's have been a bottom-10 scoring team for two straight seasons with Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett (and Ray Allen in 2011-12). Every single basket is going to be an unwatchable grind, and the season will probably end with Boston around 25th or worse in points per possession.

They'll be solid defensively on the perimeter, and Brad Stevens will have them executing precisely on both ends, but they're severely lacking rim protection. It's going to be ugly, and if the Celtics do somehow find themselves in the race for no. 8 at midseason, they'll happily trade themselves out of it if they can find any useful assets for Courtney Lee, Brandon Bass, Kris Humphries, and others. A Rondo trade is the sexier angle — and not implausible — but a trade involving one of those names is much more likely; dealing Lee or Bass would allow Boston to get serious cap room in July.

Phoenix Suns

They're playing for draft picks and cap room. Everyone's available, save perhaps for Eric Bledsoe and the rookies, as Ryan McDonough, the team's new GM, finishes purging the bad deals he inherited and setting Phoenix up for the future. Watching Bledsoe–Goran Dragic lineups will be fun, and it's nice to have Channing Frye back raining triples. Kendall Marshall is playing for his career, already.

Utah Jazz

These aren't last season's Hawks, where you could plausibly argue that it's very difficult to be bad with two very good, multi-talented post players (Josh Smith, Al Horford). Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors are going to be very good NBA players, and they should form a solid defensive pairing right away now that Millsap and Jefferson are gone. But Utah has struggled horribly on offense with those two on the floor, and though each has tantalizing individual skills, the Jazz have to figure out how to mesh them.

They'll have to do so without a veteran starting point guard, and with Gordon Hayward, a very good player, likely having to do too much heavy lifting on offense as a result. The bench is going to be awful if Marvin Williams plays this season as he did last. The Jazz will be fun to watch from a big-picture perspective, but they won't be good.

Orlando Magic

This is a developmental year for a team that's finally going to walk into some serious long-term cap flexibility next summer — especially if they deal Jameer Nelson or buy out the final year of his contract.6 There are some interesting pieces here, and it was fun to watch Tobias Harris and Maurice Harkless stretch themselves when things fell apart last season. But Orlando's defense collapsed without Glen Davis after a surprising 12-13 start, and its offense was never any good. It'll have major issues spacing the floor, and each young guy will experience growing pains — especially if Jacque Vaughn gives Victor Oladipo heavy time as the team's main playmaker.

FOOTNOTES

Belinelli will happily admit how difficult it was for him at first to grasp the nuances of Tom Thibodeau's defense in Chicago, and how much he ended up learning in the process.

That is, if Randolph is on the roster then. I think he will be, but this is a bold front office that understands Randolph is declining, expensive, and approaching the point in his contract — with only a player option after this season — when he might be most tradable. The Grizz also have a large trade exception left over from the Rudy Gay deal, but they're less than $2 million below the tax, so adding salary is unlikely.

Monroe is eligible for an extension until October 31.

Even the coaching situation is uncertain, with Dwane Casey in the final year of his deal, and two of Ujiri's handpicked assistants — Nick Nurse and Bill Bayno, both highly regarded — working with Casey on one-year deals.

Darrell Arthur and Timofey Mozgov will both be involved as well, but Arthur appears to be the fifth big man in the rotation — for now.

Only $2 million of Nelson's $8 million salary for 2014-15 is guaranteed.

 

[Simpleton]

Ideal scenario is the Bulls get the 1 seed while Miami rests their stars and in the Eastern semis Miami/Indiana put each other through the ringer while the Bulls play someone like Brooklyn or the Knicks who wouldn't be much of a problem.

 

[Carp]

Rose sat out because of a sore knee last night...poosay.

 

[1bigfan13]

Rose sat out because of a sore knee last night...poosay.

If he pulls this stuff during the regular season his teammates will look at him sideways.

It's been 18 months since the surgery.

With today's modern medicine an athlete should be back from an ACL injury in approximately 10 months.

 

[Texas Ace]

If he pulls this stuff during the regular season his teammates will look at him sideways.

It's been 18 months since the surgery.

With today's modern medicine an athlete should be back from an ACL injury in approximately 10 months.

If he had played during the playoffs like he should have, then maybe he wouldn't be experiencing soreness right now.

What a bitch that guy is.

 

[Texas Ace]

It's early in the preseason, but Dirk has looked really good......much better than he has at this point in the last 2 years.

It's too bad the team is gonna suck.

 

[Smitty]

It's early in the preseason, but Dirk has looked really good......much better than he has at this point in the last 2 years.

It's too bad the team is gonna suck.

Carlos Boozer's expiring in another year contract for Dirk.

 

[Smitty]

Rick Bucher today said he'd take Derrick Rose over Lebron James.

I mean, that can't possibly be the right call, but Rose is definitely legit up there.

 

[Texas Ace]

Rick Bucher today said he'd take Derrick Rose over Lebron James.

I mean, that can't possibly be the right call, but Rose is definitely legit up there.

Bucher needs to be drug tested.

 

[Jiggyfly]

Bucher needs to be drug tested.

Yep.

 

[Tony D]

Rick Bucher today said he'd take Derrick Rose over Lebron James.

I mean, that can't possibly be the right call, but Rose is definitely legit up there.

Lets not even get into who is the more talented player, but Bucher will take a guy who hasn't played a meaningful NBA game in 17 months over a guy who has won 2 titles while Rose has been hurt and never misses a game. Got it.

 

[Texas Ace]

After Lebron, if I could have any player, I would definitely take Durant over Rose without even thinking about it.

Hell, if those guys pick up where they left off last season or improve for that matter, I'd even consider Harden and Paul George over him.

I lost a lot of respect for that soft, heartless bitch and his play in crunch time has left a lot to be desired.

 

[Smitty]

After Lebron, if I could have any player, I would definitely take Durant over Rose without even thinking about it.

Hell, if those guys pick up where they left off last season or improve for that matter, I'd even consider Harden and Paul George over him.

Durant is fair.... the others.... foolish.

I lost a lot of respect for that soft, heartless bitch and his play in crunch time has left a lot to be desired.

He had a serious knee injury. I'm not saying he couldn't have come back, but it's not like he had some kind of nagging injury and shelved himself. He deserves a little slack.

If anything, the guy has shown he is the opposite of heartless... that's just stupid. He's ten times the competitor that a guy like Lebron is.... Rose is definitely more in the Kobe Bryant mold.

 

[Texas Ace]

If anything, the guy has shown he is the opposite of heartless... that's just stupid. He's ten times the competitor that a guy like Lebron is.... Rose is definitely more in the Kobe Bryant mold.

Lebron is not a killer, but he's more aggressive now than he was before and he came up huge in game 7 late to help seal that win.

I don't see any Kobe Bryant in Derrick Rose. He doesn't exactly have this rep for being this clutch late game player nor do I see him telling everyone to GTFO when he has the ball later either.

I think you're overrating him a bit.

 

[Simpleton]

About 3 months from now nobody will even consider Harden over Rose and sure as shit not a guy like George, and by the end of the year I'm thinking him and Durant will at least be roughly tied behind LeBron as the 2nd best player in the league, just as it was before he got hurt.