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Kiper & McShay: Picking QB risers, sleepers for 2019 draft
Sep 25, 2018
Mel Kiper Jr.Todd McShay
ESPN NFL draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay pick out quarterbacks rising up their boards this season, plus the sleepers to watch for next year's draft.
They also look at sleeper QBs putting up good numbers to start the season, identify two under-the-radar prospects to keep an eye on and give their current picks for the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy CFB MVP.
Biggest QB risers
Justin Herbert, Oregon
What impressed me about Herbert in Saturday night's overtime loss to Stanford was the 6-foot-6, 233-pound signal-caller's mobility. He is dangerous in the read option, and he can extend plays with his legs. Showing off that athletic ability is a big part of why Herbert is my new No. 1 quarterback for next year's draft. He completed 78.8 percent of his 33 passes for 346 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Herbert made mistakes, but he battled.
Oregon's Justin Herbert has had a hot start to the season, but his first big test awaits Saturday. Mel Kiper ranks the top 25 prospects for next year's draft.
There is a lot to like about Herbert, who has a chance to be a top-five pick in April. He has ideal size, of course, but he can make every throw and fit the ball into tight windows, and he shows good anticipation. I'd like to see a little more consistency as the season progresses -- he has five picks in four games so far -- but it's clear he has matured and taken the leap in 2018. There are some similarities in the 2019 class to the Class of 2017, in which Mitchell Trubisky ended up being the first quarterback off the board (No. 2 overall). Herbert is ahead of Trubisky at this stage for their careers. Again, Herbert isn't perfect, but he has all the tools to be QB1. -- Kiper
Drew Lock, Missouri
Even after seeing it on film, Lock's arm looks really legit when you see it in person. He has the accuracy and pop to fit the ball into small windows that some NFL QBs can't thread. Through four games, Lock has completed 62.7 percent of his passes after completing just 54.5 percent through his first three seasons at Mizzou. Nearly across the board, his numbers have jumped thus far with his new offensive coordinator, Derek Dooley, who spent the past five years with the Dallas Cowboys. His last OC, Josh Heupel, ran a spread-tempo offense, and the arrival of Dooley is allowing Lock to learn to set protections and identify defensive setups before the snap for the first time in his football career, although he needs to speed up his progression reads post-snap.
The 6-foot-4, 225-pound senior is severely underrated as an athlete -- he was offered a basketball scholarship by Oklahoma out of high school -- but he needs to morph into more of a leader. He won't throw four touchdowns every game like he did in the first two games of the season, and there will be times when he'll struggle as he did against Georgia when his 13-game touchdown pass streak came to an end. In those scenarios, he needs to really work on his body language. -- McShay
QB sleepers to watch
Tyree Jackson, Buffalo
You need to watch Jackson and the Bulls, who are 4-0 and just walloped Rutgers. Jackson, a fourth-year junior, is huge -- 6-foot-7, 245 pounds. He has a big arm and can move, though he's not a runner. He takes care of the football, too. Jackson has 27 touchdown passes and only six interceptions over his last two seasons. I have him ranked as my No. 4 underclassman signal-caller for this class, and he could rise even further. -- Kiper
Brett Rypien, Boise State
The 6-foot-2, 202-pound senior has 10 touchdowns and no picks for the Broncos this season. Despite the loss in Stillwater, he still rang up 380 passing yards and three scores while hitting 70 percent of his throws. Nephew of Mark Rypien, he has some physical limitations as an undersized QB, but he gets it mentally and has a good work ethic. I could see him working his way into a Day 3 draft spot. -- McShay
Almost famous under-the-radar prospects
Keep an eye on these potential Day 2 or Day 3 picks:
Oshane Ximines, DE, Old Dominion
How about those Monarchs? They went from 0-3, with losses to Liberty, Florida International and Charlotte, to an upset win in Blacksburg over No. 13 Virginia Tech. And they have some prospects. Ximines, a 6-foot-3, 253-pound fifth-year senior, had two sacks and seven total tackles against the Hokies. He's explosive off the edge, and there were times when he used power moves to rush inside. Ximines can hold the edge in the run game, though there were plays in which he lost eye discipline and overcommitted. But you have to like his versatility -- he lined up with his hand in the dirt and on his feet. Ximines has 26 career sacks, but he's still growing into his frame. He's on my board in the third-round range right now. -- Kiper
Travis Fulgham, WR, Old Dominion
I've watched some film on Fulgham's sophomore season, when he caught eight touchdowns for Old Dominion, and there's a lot to like. The 6-foot-2, 214-pound wideout caught nine passes for 188 yards (20.9 yards per catch) and a touchdown in Saturday's 49-35 upset win over Virginia Tech. He walked on to the Monarchs back in 2014 and quickly earned a scholarship with the team. Fulgham has 34½-inch arms, 9⅜-inch hands and good speed. Before Saturday's breakout, he had five catches for 64 yards in the first three games of the season. He's someone to keep an eye on. -- McShay
Prospect on the rise
This is the 2019 NFL draft prospect moving up boards:
Dillon Mitchell, WR, Oregon
Mitchell is just a junior and is coming off one of the best games of his collegiate career. In Saturday night's OT win over Stanford, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound wide receiver caught 14 balls for 239 yards, including a 53-yard gain. And he did it all while battling through a leg injury. He has some room to get stronger but shows natural tracking ability. -- McShay
College football's most valuable players
These aren't our picks for the Heisman Trophy winner; these are the MVPs of college football.
Kiper's top three:
1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: How good is the Alabama team? Tagovailoa was sensational again in the win over Texas A&M, his fourth straight game with a Total QBR of at least 95.
2. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma: Don't blame Murray for the Sooners almost blowing their College Football Playoff chances at home against Army. Murray was efficient again, with four total touchdowns, though he threw a poor interception. Still, OU might have lost without him on Saturday.
3. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State: Haskins is up to 16 touchdown passes and just one interception this season, and he was nearly flawless in limited time against Tulane, completing 21 of 24 passes.
McShay's top three:
1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: Career-high passing numbers for Tua this week against the Aggies, as he threw for 387 yards. He has been exceptional going deep this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information tracking, he has hit 59 percent of his passes at least 10 yards downfield and has scored nine touchdowns on such throws (0 INT).
2. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State: Haskins had 304 passing yards and five touchdowns against Tulane on Saturday. The last Big Ten player with 300-plus yards and five TDs through the air? Purdue's Kyle Orton against Indiana, way, way back in 2004, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
3. Will Grier, QB, West Virginia: Grier's first-half stat line against Kansas State would have been impressive on its own, as he threw for 258 yards and three scores. He'd finish the day with five touchdowns.
If the College Football Playoff started today ...
Kiper's top four teams:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
McShay's top four teams:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
Sep 25, 2018
Mel Kiper Jr.Todd McShay
ESPN NFL draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay pick out quarterbacks rising up their boards this season, plus the sleepers to watch for next year's draft.
They also look at sleeper QBs putting up good numbers to start the season, identify two under-the-radar prospects to keep an eye on and give their current picks for the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy CFB MVP.
Biggest QB risers
Justin Herbert, Oregon
What impressed me about Herbert in Saturday night's overtime loss to Stanford was the 6-foot-6, 233-pound signal-caller's mobility. He is dangerous in the read option, and he can extend plays with his legs. Showing off that athletic ability is a big part of why Herbert is my new No. 1 quarterback for next year's draft. He completed 78.8 percent of his 33 passes for 346 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Herbert made mistakes, but he battled.
Oregon's Justin Herbert has had a hot start to the season, but his first big test awaits Saturday. Mel Kiper ranks the top 25 prospects for next year's draft.
There is a lot to like about Herbert, who has a chance to be a top-five pick in April. He has ideal size, of course, but he can make every throw and fit the ball into tight windows, and he shows good anticipation. I'd like to see a little more consistency as the season progresses -- he has five picks in four games so far -- but it's clear he has matured and taken the leap in 2018. There are some similarities in the 2019 class to the Class of 2017, in which Mitchell Trubisky ended up being the first quarterback off the board (No. 2 overall). Herbert is ahead of Trubisky at this stage for their careers. Again, Herbert isn't perfect, but he has all the tools to be QB1. -- Kiper
Drew Lock, Missouri
Even after seeing it on film, Lock's arm looks really legit when you see it in person. He has the accuracy and pop to fit the ball into small windows that some NFL QBs can't thread. Through four games, Lock has completed 62.7 percent of his passes after completing just 54.5 percent through his first three seasons at Mizzou. Nearly across the board, his numbers have jumped thus far with his new offensive coordinator, Derek Dooley, who spent the past five years with the Dallas Cowboys. His last OC, Josh Heupel, ran a spread-tempo offense, and the arrival of Dooley is allowing Lock to learn to set protections and identify defensive setups before the snap for the first time in his football career, although he needs to speed up his progression reads post-snap.
The 6-foot-4, 225-pound senior is severely underrated as an athlete -- he was offered a basketball scholarship by Oklahoma out of high school -- but he needs to morph into more of a leader. He won't throw four touchdowns every game like he did in the first two games of the season, and there will be times when he'll struggle as he did against Georgia when his 13-game touchdown pass streak came to an end. In those scenarios, he needs to really work on his body language. -- McShay
QB sleepers to watch
Tyree Jackson, Buffalo
You need to watch Jackson and the Bulls, who are 4-0 and just walloped Rutgers. Jackson, a fourth-year junior, is huge -- 6-foot-7, 245 pounds. He has a big arm and can move, though he's not a runner. He takes care of the football, too. Jackson has 27 touchdown passes and only six interceptions over his last two seasons. I have him ranked as my No. 4 underclassman signal-caller for this class, and he could rise even further. -- Kiper
Brett Rypien, Boise State
The 6-foot-2, 202-pound senior has 10 touchdowns and no picks for the Broncos this season. Despite the loss in Stillwater, he still rang up 380 passing yards and three scores while hitting 70 percent of his throws. Nephew of Mark Rypien, he has some physical limitations as an undersized QB, but he gets it mentally and has a good work ethic. I could see him working his way into a Day 3 draft spot. -- McShay
Almost famous under-the-radar prospects
Keep an eye on these potential Day 2 or Day 3 picks:
Oshane Ximines, DE, Old Dominion
How about those Monarchs? They went from 0-3, with losses to Liberty, Florida International and Charlotte, to an upset win in Blacksburg over No. 13 Virginia Tech. And they have some prospects. Ximines, a 6-foot-3, 253-pound fifth-year senior, had two sacks and seven total tackles against the Hokies. He's explosive off the edge, and there were times when he used power moves to rush inside. Ximines can hold the edge in the run game, though there were plays in which he lost eye discipline and overcommitted. But you have to like his versatility -- he lined up with his hand in the dirt and on his feet. Ximines has 26 career sacks, but he's still growing into his frame. He's on my board in the third-round range right now. -- Kiper
Travis Fulgham, WR, Old Dominion
I've watched some film on Fulgham's sophomore season, when he caught eight touchdowns for Old Dominion, and there's a lot to like. The 6-foot-2, 214-pound wideout caught nine passes for 188 yards (20.9 yards per catch) and a touchdown in Saturday's 49-35 upset win over Virginia Tech. He walked on to the Monarchs back in 2014 and quickly earned a scholarship with the team. Fulgham has 34½-inch arms, 9⅜-inch hands and good speed. Before Saturday's breakout, he had five catches for 64 yards in the first three games of the season. He's someone to keep an eye on. -- McShay
Prospect on the rise
This is the 2019 NFL draft prospect moving up boards:
Dillon Mitchell, WR, Oregon
Mitchell is just a junior and is coming off one of the best games of his collegiate career. In Saturday night's OT win over Stanford, the 6-foot-2, 190-pound wide receiver caught 14 balls for 239 yards, including a 53-yard gain. And he did it all while battling through a leg injury. He has some room to get stronger but shows natural tracking ability. -- McShay
College football's most valuable players
These aren't our picks for the Heisman Trophy winner; these are the MVPs of college football.
Kiper's top three:
1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: How good is the Alabama team? Tagovailoa was sensational again in the win over Texas A&M, his fourth straight game with a Total QBR of at least 95.
2. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma: Don't blame Murray for the Sooners almost blowing their College Football Playoff chances at home against Army. Murray was efficient again, with four total touchdowns, though he threw a poor interception. Still, OU might have lost without him on Saturday.
3. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State: Haskins is up to 16 touchdown passes and just one interception this season, and he was nearly flawless in limited time against Tulane, completing 21 of 24 passes.
McShay's top three:
1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: Career-high passing numbers for Tua this week against the Aggies, as he threw for 387 yards. He has been exceptional going deep this season. According to ESPN Stats & Information tracking, he has hit 59 percent of his passes at least 10 yards downfield and has scored nine touchdowns on such throws (0 INT).
2. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State: Haskins had 304 passing yards and five touchdowns against Tulane on Saturday. The last Big Ten player with 300-plus yards and five TDs through the air? Purdue's Kyle Orton against Indiana, way, way back in 2004, according to ESPN Stats & Information research.
3. Will Grier, QB, West Virginia: Grier's first-half stat line against Kansas State would have been impressive on its own, as he threw for 258 yards and three scores. He'd finish the day with five touchdowns.
If the College Football Playoff started today ...
Kiper's top four teams:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
McShay's top four teams:
1. Alabama
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
