What the Dallas Cowboys Should do with the 4th Pick

Jiggyfly

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What the Dallas Cowboys Should do with the 4th Pick and the Mistake They Cannot Make
Written by Joe Marino on March 5, 2016
http://draftbreakdown.com/what-the-dallas-cowboys-should-do-with-the-4th-pick-and-the-mistake-they-cannot-make/


There seems to be quite the dilemma that is brewing regarding what the Dallas Cowboys should do with the fourth pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. For me, it’s an incredibly easy situation to manage with an obvious no-no that I fear is being considered and the Cowboys fan base is starting to support. Join me as I elaborate on how simple this should be for Dallas.

In Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil, Ohio State DE Joey Bosa, Florida State DB Jalen Ramsey and UCLA LB Myles Jack there are four blue-chip prospects in this Draft. These are can’t-miss prospects that a team should never pass on unless there is a quarterback prospect worthy of the pick. In this case, there are two quarterbacks, Cal’s Jared Goff and North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz, that are worthy of consideration. Selecting fourth overall, the Cowboys are in the necessary position to pull the trigger on one of these top talents.

Why Not a Quarterback?


Tony Romo will be 36 years old for the 2016 season and has a propensity for getting injured. When healthy, he is one ofJared Goff the league’s top quarterbacks but his age and injury history is concerning. Either Goff or Wentz should be available with the fourth pick and this is a unique and rare chance for the Cowboys to grab their quarterback of the future for the post-Romo era. Jerry Jones recently shared just how much of an impact Romo could make on a young quarterback:

“If a player came in here and played behind him three or four years, he would come out with a Harvard degree in how to play quarterback in my mind. He would be that influential.”
Why not take advantage of this opportunity? Most NFL teams are scrambling to find a mediocre quarterback or are over-paying average passers and the Cowboys have the chance to solidify the position for the next decade plus. This is a viable, and valuable solution for the fourth pick.

Bosa, Jack and Ramsey

These guys are outstanding football players that would instantly improve the team and add elite talent to the roster. Last season, Dallas was 25th in the NFL in sacks. Joey Bosa is a dynamic pass rusher and run defender. He is the type of player that alters game plans and would be a pillar for years to come on the defensive line.

NFL teams covet linebackers that can run, cover and eliminate plays and Myles Jacks does that at an elite level. He can cover receivers in man, has top-end athletic ability, is a superb tackler, and is textbook in his ability to take on blocks and redirect run plays.

Jalen Ramsey is everything you could ever want in a defensive back. He has size, length, athletic ability, coverage skills, ball skills and the physicality that will instantly make him of the league’s top secondary players. The Cowboys could not go wrong in selecting one of these three talented football players.

Dallas Simply Cannot Draft Ezekiel Elliott

I absolutely love Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott. He is a foundation piece for a NFL offense and has the upside to be one Elliott Insideof the top five backs in the league almost instantly. With that said, he is a running back and passing on one of the previously mentioned players would be a mistake that Dallas cannot make.

Running backs do not have the positional value worthy of the fourth pick in the draft, especially considering what you would be passing on to select Elliott. The last two Super Bowl Champions, New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, running games were lead by Jonas Gray (412 yards in the regular season) and Ronnie Hillman (863 yard in the regular season) respectively. In 2015, the NFL only produced seven 1,000 yard rushers and only one playoff team had a 1,000 yard rusher which was Adrian Peterson with the Minnesota Vikings. Interestingly enough, one of the seven NFL teams with a 1,000 yard rusher was the 4-12 Dallas Cowboys as Darren McFadden was fourth in the league with 1,089 rushing yards. The value of a running game with a workhorse running back is a diminishing aspect of NFL football.

While this does not guarantee Elliott’s NFL potential, the return on investment for running backs selected in the top-ten has been poor. From 2005-2014 there were eight running backs selected in the top-10.

Year Pick Running Back Team
2012 3 Trent Richardson Browns
2010 9 CJ Spiller Bills
2008 4 Darren McFadden Raiders
2007 7 Adrian Peterson Vikings
2006 2 Reggie Bush Saints
2005 5 Ronnie Brown Dolphins
2005 4 Cedric Benson Bears
2005 2 Carnell Williams Buccaneers
Adrian Peterson aside, these players did not produce like a top-ten running back should. The players that could have been selected over these backs represent serious missed opportunities. Hindsight is always 20/20 but NFL teams should learn from these mistakes.

But Joe, the Cowboys were 12-4 in 2014 and were lead by DeMarco Murray’s league-leading 1,845 rushing yards. The reason the 2015 version of the Dallas Cowboys record flipped from 12-4 to 4-12 was largely due to the absence of Tony Romo in the starting lineup. Romo played in 4 games and the Cowboys won 3 of those. In games Romo did not play, the Cowboys were 1-11. Also not to be forgotten is that star WR Dez Bryant only played in five games. The Cowboys lackluster season was about the players that were unavailable rather than the free agent departure of DeMarco Murray.

In 2015, Dallas still produced the league’s fourth leading rusher in Darren McFadden and featured the 9th ranked rushing offense in the NFL. That is pretty remarkable when you consider the absence of quality quarterback play with the likes of Brandon Weeden, Kellen Moore and Matt Cassel accounting for 76.9% of the team’s passing attempts. The strength of the Cowboys team is their incredible offensive line which makes having an elite running back unnecessary. Should the Cowboys truly wish to desire upgrading the running back position, there are plenty of free agent options and prospects throughout the draft they should consider outside of using fourth pick on Elliott.

What Dallas Should Do

For me this is easy. You stack the aforementioned players, Tunsil, Bosa, Ramsey, Jack, Goff and Wentz in the order you like them best. From there you either solidify the long-term future of the quarterback position or select one of the elite talents in this draft and let it fall to you. The Cowboys are in prime position to improve their team in a valuable way. What you don’t do is turn in the card for Ezekiel Elliott. Even if Elliott turns into one of the NFL’s best running backs, and it’s likely that he will, passing up on the players I have discussed is a mistake and risk they cannot take given positional value. If the Cowboys were selecting later in the first round then a case could be made for utilizing their pick on Elliott but not at number 4 overall.
 

Plan9Misfit

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If Elliott is primed to be one of the league's elite RBs, then you take him and ride him for the 1,500+ yard seasons until he drops dead. In my opinion, neither Bosa or Ramsey are elite players, and Tunsil and Buckner will likely be gone. That leaves Jack, and whichever QB isn't picked by Cleveland. Meaning, we should either draft a QB to groom or take Elliott because he'd be the biggest inpact player for us.
 

Angrymesscan

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5 years of 1500+ yds and 10Td's is over 7,500 yds and 50 Td's.
That would rank pretty high historically for most teams, I wouldn't consider that a bad thing.
 

Plan9Misfit

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5 years of 1500+ yds and 10Td's is over 7,500 yds and 50 Td's.
That would rank pretty high historically for most teams, I wouldn't consider that a bad thing.
Exactly. Production like that is absolutely and unequivically worth a top 5 pick.
 

Cowboysrock55

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5 years of 1500+ yds and 10Td's is over 7,500 yds and 50 Td's.
That would rank pretty high historically for most teams, I wouldn't consider that a bad thing.
Adrian Peterson couldn't do that. People are being ridiculous about Elliot.
 

Plan9Misfit

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So then Elliot isn't really that good, our offensive line is. So yeah, not close to fourth pick good.
It's a combination of both. I think Elliott is the real deal, and our o-line will allow him to be even better; just as Emmitt was the beneficiary of the o-lines from the 90s. Granted, Emmitt wasn't selected 4th overall, but I'd bet that teams would've selected him in the top 5 had they known his production would've been that good.
 

Cowboysrock55

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It's a combination of both. I think Elliott is the real deal, and our o-line will allow him to be even better; just as Emmitt was the beneficiary of the o-lines from the 90s. Granted, Emmitt wasn't selected 4th overall, but I'd bet that teams would've selected him in the top 5 had they known his production would've been that good.
Emmitt never had 5 straight years of 1,500 yards either. But what he did have was a really long career. RBs just don't last like he did anymore. I agree though. If you can find a 10 year franchise back ala Emmitt or AP they are still worth a top 5 pick.
 
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