KT: Should The Dallas Cowboys Extend Dak This Offseason?

[p1_]

Kevin 'KT' Turner
November 27, 2018 - 7:23 am
Dallas Cowboys QB Dak Prescott


It's always hard to gauge how an entire fan base as large as the Dallas Cowboys feels. I try hard on the air to not generalize, because after all, I don't like when I am generalized.

I say this as a disclaimer, because quite frankly I''m about to generalize based on no scientific data, which is something I'm firmly against, but it's also something I'm about to do...

Despite this 3 game winning streak, it sure feels like most of the fan base is against the Cowboys giving Dak a long-term contract.

I would contend that the ratio of fans who are pro-Dak vs. anti-Dak would lend a victory to the "Dak haters". Maybe that's our problem to begin with. Why do we have to choose sides? It's okay to want what's best for the organization, and if you don't feel Dak is that guy, then you have the right to your opinion that the Cowboys should not make him the franchise quarterback moving forward. You can feel that way without being a "Dak Hater", but in this divisive world it all feels easier to discuss these types of things without nuance rather than saying "he sucks!" or "he's great!".

I'm not here to defend Dak, but I am here to offer a rational perspective on why i'm pulling for the Cowboys to pay the man, and it actually has very little to do with Dak or his mechanics, intangibles, inaccuracies, leadership, etc.

Whatever you think about Dak, this is what we know...this team has not made selecting quarterbacks looks easy. Dak is the 3rd best quarterback in this organization, dating back to 1988. That's 30 years of QB play, and you've basically had Troy, Tony, and Dak.

Do you really want the Cowboys to be in a position, or put themselves in a position, where they have to go shopping for another QB???

If you say yes, then i'm going to assume you had too many glasses of (insert liquor sponsor here).

Whatever you want to say about Dak, the Jones' ability to find a QB has been objectively worse. It's not shots fired at the organization as much as it is looking at some of the problems while celebrating the jackpots they've hit. As Jerry famously once said on a questionable recording, "ROMO WAS A MIRACLE!". Well guess what yall, so was Dak!

Just because a guy is a miracle doesn't mean you have to keep him around, but making a decision to not pay Dak would mean that you are trusting the guys who wanted Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook in that very draft.

Guys, we're gonna do this exercise here and it's not going to be pretty. In fact, to get motivated for this exercise I pulled up "A Perfect Day" by Lou Reed to help me get through it without spiraling into a deep depression.

Since the year 2000, here are the Cowboys starting quarterbacks...

2000: Troy Aikman/Randall Cunningham/Anthony Wright

2001: Qunicy Carter/Anthony Wright/Ryan Leaf/Clint Stoerner

2002: Chad Hutchinson/Quincy Carter

2003: Quincy Carter

2004: Vinny Testaverde/Drew Henson

2005: Drew Bledsoe

2006: Drew Bledsoe/Tony Romo

2007: Tony Romo

2008: Tony Romo/Brad Johnson

2009: Tony Romo

2010: Tony Romo/Jon Kitna/Stephen McGee

2011: Tony Romo

2012: Tony Romo

2013: Tony Romo/Kyle Orton

2014: Tony Romo/Brandon Weeden

2015: Tony Romo/Brandon Weeden/Matt Cassel/Kellen Moore

2016: Dak Prescott

2017: Dak Prescott

2018: Dak Prescott

Romo was undrafted and an admitted miracle by the owner. Dak was not the guy they fully targeted in the 2016 draft. They should get credit for rostering these guys, i'll give them that, but the run before Tony along with their near trade up for Paxton Lynch and their near pick of Johnny Manziel, should be enough to have you shaking in your boots. I know i'm not confident in them quickly finding a solution, should Dak falter.

Look, i'm not asking the Cowboys to give Dak the Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers contracts, but I do think if they are dead set on doing the deal this offseason, then Dak is worthy of the 20 million average annual value contract. You could even guarantee him a larger percentage of the contract, to keep the annual hit down. I wouldn't break the bank for Dak, but giving Dak a Top 10-15 QB contract should be comforting, not scary. Scary is the unknown. We have a pretty good idea what Dak is.

The truth is that if you can wipe out the last 8 games of the 2017 season, which started with Dak getting broken in Atlanta and continued on without Tyron and Zeke, then you have a good quarterback on your hands.

In 2017 before Tyron and Zeke disappeared, the team put up 28 points per game.

In 2017 after Tyron and Zeke were gone, in the final 8 games, just 16ppg.

2017 1st 8 Games: 16 TD/4 INT

2017 2nd 8 Games: 6 TD/9 INT

His QB rating also much higher in the first half of course, but I personally think QB rating is a dumb stat!

In 2018, more of the same, not a great start to the year without a true #1 WR on the roster. The team averaged just over 20 points a game, and Dak threw for only 8 touchdowns and 4 interceptions before the Cooper trade. Since then, in a very small sample size, the team is up 3 points per game, and Dak has thrown 12 touchdowns and only 2 interceptions.

Also, another thing I often get in my mentions on the twitter tweets (@ktfuntweets) is that Dak never has amazing stat lines. I've chosen not to copy and paste the hateful tweets, as not to embarrass anybody, but it's not uncommon on any given Sunday for me to receive a ton of mentions throwing out the idea that Dak isn't good because he rarely throws for 250 yards. Well, my children, Tony Romo averaged 255 yards per game in his career, and nobody was griping about that were they?

All of this above, just to ask this question. Could it be that Dak has been not just good, but really good in his career if you wipe out the 8 games without your stud RB and all-pro left tackle, and the beginning of this season without an attention-grabbing No. 1 WR?

Yes, it's true.

I'm not saying Dak is a Goff/Mahomes/Wentz/etc...but I am saying he's good enough.

In this league where the QB is more important than anything else, and the margin of error for finding a decent one is terribly slim, I'm not sure that it's a great idea to get greedy with what you have and take the chance of QB hell once again. We know what QB hell is, and this is not it.

I'll end it with a suggested contract for Dak. One that hopefully will make the player, team, and fans all happy. The rare WIN/WIN/WIN situation.

Let's assume they try to get a deal done this offseason, (first franchise tag after 2019 season would likely be somewhere around 25 million), with Dak set to make minimum wage in 2019, you could offer him a 5-year extension at 100 million dollars, with 60% of the contract guaranteed.

The guaranteed percentage is something guys like Rodgers/Brady/Ryan get, while the 20 million dollars annual value keeps you in the company of guys like Cam Newton/Phillip Rivers, but just more than Case Keenum/Ryan Tannehill.

I can't stress this enough, I would personally wait and see how Dak performs in 2019, but if we are to believe the report from over the weekend that the Cowboys want to extend Dak this offseason, then I believe that's a fair offer and one that should make Dak, the front office, and the fan base happy. Wait, who am I kidding? This fan base won't be happy until this team goes on another long playoff run, which has been few and far between since those three super bowls.

I'll leave you with this....what do you have more confidence in moving forward? Dak's play on the field, or the organization's ability to find a better option. For me, I'll put my money on Dak, and I think you should too.

 

[DLK150]

No, not while he's under contract for next year already.

 

[Plan9Misfit]

Absolutely not.

 

[Simpleton]

If it's a short, team friendly, incentive-based deal I'd be ok with it but there's no reason to jump the gun, why not just wait it out and get more information?

 

[ravidubey]

It depends on the deal, but why bother when he’s under contract?

On one hand the sooner it is the less money it’s going to cost, and the franchise tag would be outrageous in two years. On the other hand if he stinks it up the price might actually go down.

So if we got hot and won the Superbowl this season, then I say sure because each year the cost goes up.

I don’t believe Dak is a great QB, but if I’m choosing between him or crap off the street I choose Dak.

It’s already a foregone conclusion that Jerry has made up his mind about Dak and our lazy FO is going to ignore the position for years.

 

[Smitty]

I mean, if its a deal that allows us to get out of it any time, consequence free, maybe, but there's no way he would agree to that ever.

And even then I don't like the implications that he's a permanent QB here. I want him squarely on the hot seat.

 

[L.T. Fan]

It depends on the deal, but why bother when he’s under contract?

On one hand the sooner it is the less money it’s going to cost, and the franchise tag would be outrageous in two years. On the other hand if he stinks it up the price might actually go down.

So if we got hot and won the Superbowl this season, then I say sure because each year the cost goes up.

I don’t believe Dak is a great QB, but if I’m choosing between him or crap off the street I choose Dak.

It’s already a foregone conclusion that Jerry has made up his mind about Dak and our lazy FO is going to ignore the position for years.

If Dallas does what they have done for years they won’t try to find a QB that has enough upside to to matter. However there has been a few surprises with the draft. We will see.

 

[p1_]

If Dallas does what they have done for years they won’t try to find a QB that has enough upside to to matter. However there has been a few surprises with the draft. We will see.

making a decision to not pay Dak would mean that you are trusting the guys who wanted Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook in that very draft. This.

 

[Smitty]

I note the writer's trepidation about finding a replacement QB, but I think it's slightly misguided.

He says, "look at this list, how awful, it should make you scared. Also it should make you scared that they wanted Manziel and Paxton Lynch. They can't evaluate QBs."

Well..... kinda. But the solution we all want is the "trade up for a top 5 pick" solution.... or, be bad enough that you get a top 5 pick.

That list looks that bad because they have refused to try that option. Since Aikman was gone, every attempt at finding a QB was an attempt to do it at a bargain. Leaving out the QBs on that list who were never acquired with thoughts of them being the starter (so, like Cunningham was only supposed to be the veteran backup, Anthony Wright was just an undrafted free agent who was never supposed to be a starter, so they are off the list), it looks like this:

Quincy Carter - 2nd round.
Ryan Leaf - shot-in-the-dark free agent flyer on a talented bust.
Chad Hutchinson - highly regarded free agent signing, but for cheap because of his high bust potential due to being out of football so long.
Drew Henson - see above, but this time with a 3rd round pick attached.
Vinny Testaverde - all but washed up journeyman who was only brought in for peanuts to be a short term starter after all the above guys flopped.
Drew Bledsoe - A better version of Testaverde. Still ridiculously cheap, and no draft pick investment needed.
Tony Romo - Undrafted free agent miracle.
Stephen McGee - 4th round shot in the dark development type (not necessarily ever meant to be a starter, but different than a guy like Wright, because McGee was meant to be something, at least).
Dak Prescott - Another 4th round shot in the dark like McGee, but this one also panned out, relatively speaking, though not on the miracle level like Romo (at least not yet).

So, uh, in nearly two decades of attempts to "find" a QB, we've spent a 2nd, a 3rd, and two 4ths, and a handful of mediocre to downright minor free agent contracts. Obviously not including the megadeals we gave Romo once we had already determined he was the starter.

So yeah, of course that list is gonna look like shit. We don't throw any assets at the problem. Oh man, we have a bad list of compiled late round QB prospects, don't we?!? Yeah, so does everyone. We are actually way above the curve, given what we have expended. We have Romo, we have Prescott, most teams don't have anything close to two starting QBs in the last 2 decades found in the fourth round or later.

It is disconcerting that two of our rumored targets in Lynch and Manziel were busts, but again, they were also mid-to-late firsts, an area that is generally spotty at best for finding QBs.

It's pretty much unarguable: The most reliable way of finding a quality starting QB is at the top of the draft. Maybe more starting QBs in this league are not high first rounders, but they are accumulated through many, many times over the amount of selections. Top 5 or top 10 picks have the best "hit rate."

And we just never try that approach.

On the other hand of all this, Jerry and Stephen's success rate picking in the first round in general (at other positions, since we simply have not drafted first round QBs) is pretty solid in recent years. I think if anything, I would have some amount of confidence that they would get a top 10 QB selection right. Keep in mind, yes, they wanted Lynch in the late first.... but they really wanted Wentz at 4.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I mean, if its a deal that allows us to get out of it any time, consequence free, maybe, but there's no way he would agree to that ever.

And even then I don't like the implications that he's a permanent QB here. I want him squarely on the hot seat.

Would be really nice to do a Blake Bortles type deal. Granted Blake Bortles is hot garbage right now but when they did the extension he was coming off a year that he took his team deep in the playoffs and played pretty well in the playoffs. Dak is the better QB but to me that would be an ideal extension. Dak gets paid a year earlier and because of that agrees to a shorter extension to find out more information.

Jerry will never do it though. He is either all in on a guy or not at all. I believe he is all in on Dak. I'd like to at least get a new coaching regime in here after this season and give them a shot at evaluating Dak and deciding if they want him as their QB.

 

[deadrise]

Any conversation about Dak's short or long term prospects has to take into account how long Garrett (and/or Linehan) are going to be around. I believe any QB in Dallas is doomed to mediocrity with Garrett and his offensive scheme in place.

 

[bbgun]

No. And I'm going to assume it was a rhetorical question.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I note the writer's trepidation about finding a replacement QB, but I think it's slightly misguided.

He says, "look at this list, how awful, it should make you scared. Also it should make you scared that they wanted Manziel and Paxton Lynch. They can't evaluate QBs."

Well..... kinda. But the solution we all want is the "trade up for a top 5 pick" solution.... or, be bad enough that you get a top 5 pick.

That list looks that bad because they have refused to try that option. Since Aikman was gone, every attempt at finding a QB was an attempt to do it at a bargain. Leaving out the QBs on that list who were never acquired with thoughts of them being the starter (so, like Cunningham was only supposed to be the veteran backup, Anthony Wright was just an undrafted free agent who was never supposed to be a starter, so they are off the list), it looks like this:

Quincy Carter - 2nd round.
Ryan Leaf - shot-in-the-dark free agent flyer on a talented bust.
Chad Hutchinson - highly regarded free agent signing, but for cheap because of his high bust potential due to being out of football so long.
Drew Henson - see above, but this time with a 3rd round pick attached.
Vinny Testaverde - all but washed up journeyman who was only brought in for peanuts to be a short term starter after all the above guys flopped.
Drew Bledsoe - A better version of Testaverde. Still ridiculously cheap, and no draft pick investment needed.
Tony Romo - Undrafted free agent miracle.
Stephen McGee - 4th round shot in the dark development type (not necessarily ever meant to be a starter, but different than a guy like Wright, because McGee was meant to be something, at least).
Dak Prescott - Another 4th round shot in the dark like McGee, but this one also panned out, relatively speaking, though not on the miracle level like Romo (at least not yet).

So, uh, in nearly two decades of attempts to "find" a QB, we've spent a 2nd, a 3rd, and two 4ths, and a handful of mediocre to downright minor free agent contracts. Obviously not including the megadeals we gave Romo once we had already determined he was the starter.

So yeah, of course that list is gonna look like shit. We don't throw any assets at the problem. Oh man, we have a bad list of compiled late round QB prospects, don't we?!? Yeah, so does everyone. We are actually way above the curve, given what we have expended. We have Romo, we have Prescott, most teams don't have anything close to two starting QBs in the last 2 decades found in the fourth round or later.

It is disconcerting that two of our rumored targets in Lynch and Manziel were busts, but again, they were also mid-to-late firsts, an area that is generally spotty at best for finding QBs.

It's pretty much unarguable: The most reliable way of finding a quality starting QB is at the top of the draft. Maybe more starting QBs in this league are not high first rounders, but they are accumulated through many, many times over the amount of selections. Top 5 or top 10 picks have the best "hit rate."

And we just never try that approach.

On the other hand of all this, Jerry and Stephen's success rate picking in the first round in general (at other positions, since we simply have not drafted first round QBs) is pretty solid in recent years. I think if anything, I would have some amount of confidence that they would get a top 10 QB selection right. Keep in mind, yes, they wanted Lynch in the late first.... but they really wanted Wentz at 4.

Yeah I mean I'm sure they loved Goff and Wentz too. I don't think there is some flaw in the evaluation process. It was more that we had Romo and they didn't want to hurt his one last chance at a Superbowl. If we had no QB at all and determined we wanted a top 3 type QB I'm sure we would be just as good at it as most teams.

 

[Chocolate Lab]

I mean, of course it's hard for any team to find a top QB. Always has been.

But that doesn't mean you just settle for mediocre, which is what they're doing now.

Dak is at least good enough to keep the team from being horrendous and irrelevant, which is all Jerry cares about.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I mean, of course it's hard for any team to find a top QB. Always has been.

But that doesn't mean you just settle for mediocre, which is what they're doing now.

Dak is at least good enough to keep the team from being horrendous and irrelevant, which is all Jerry cares about.

Yeah even the best QB scouts are going to miss on a high percentage of them. Especially if they aren't taking a QB in the top 3 of the draft. And even then they won't be perfect. So when discussing late first and fourth round QBs and only being 1 for 3 on them is actually a pretty damn good batting percentage. It's a hard position to evaluate. And even when you do it's harder still to find a good one without a top 2 pick in the draft.

 

[Couchcoach]

I think it would be foolish to sign him long term after this season. He's shown that he's not good at reading the field, his accuracy is too often just unacceptable, mechanics, etc..
Yes, things are better with Cooper. But it's not like he's carving up opposing defenses. How many of those TD's has he scored with his legs? I just can't see locking him in with nothing at all impressive about his ability to consistently throw the ball. Do we really want to commit to this?
I say wait until after the 19' season. If things aren't significantly better, at least we have a first round pick I the 2020 draft to get a more NFL caliber QB.

 

[ravidubey]

And even then I don't like the implications that he's a permanent QB here. I want him squarely on the hot seat.

It’s inescapable if he’s signed to a long term deal. We are stuck with an almost good enough QB forever.

Dak Prescott is the devil.

 

[p1_]

This is Jerry's last hurrah, and Dak is Jerry's last shot at glory. He feels too old to have to open the position to competition, to draft more of the likes of Johnny Douchebag or Paxton Lynch and watch as each of them fails in epic fashion. He feels he can get by with an "ok"/busdriver QB. Just give Dak the perfect cast: a great running back, a great line, a good WR1, and a good TE. He's got 3 of 4 pieces already.

 

[shane]

If it's a team friendly extension that would allow us to pull the plug in 2-3 seasons without taking a big hit, I would probably be for it.

 

[L.T. Fan]

That’s reasonable and it would be an incentive for Dak to pull out all the stops. The organization would need to fill in the back up position with a good prospect however because I don’t think Prescott will ever be successful with the current system.

If it's a team friendly extension that would allow us to pull the plug in 2-3 seasons without taking a big hit, I would probably be for it.