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The Morning After: Cowboys offense simply cannot do its job in Seattle
By Bob Sturm Sep 24, 2018
Discouraging.
If you had to pick a word to describe in totality what was seen in Seattle on Sunday from a Cowboys team that had a chance to show if they were good this year, I would probably offer you that.
Simply discouraging.
This is why the countless press briefings and rhetoric of an offseason are just not that compelling in the big scheme of things. The Cowboys can say that they have spent all offseason planning for such occasions as Sunday. They can and did say they were able to discover a number of breakthroughs in their offensive tactics and strategies, that they will be far more prepared for the challenges 2018 holds. But all that does is fill space in the middle of the spring or summer when talking football helps pass the time. There is no accountability to those facts and aside from some very controlled environments in training camp (and almost no preseason action), they don’t have to show a single card to the world.
We simply wait until September, for there is nowhere to hide once the regular season begins. The schedule planned trips to Carolina and Seattle. Either they had worked out their problems with the offense going from bad to worse when it travels or they had not. The proof will then be nationally televised. The assurances and perceived confidence that they spoke with during the offseason would be tested thoroughly on those sixteen game days.
This is the moment that Mike Tyson spoke about so eloquently: “Everyone has a plan until they’ve been hit.” In truth, it’s actually a variation of the old German field general Helmet von Moltke’s (Moltke the Elder, of course) quote: “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy”. Tyson was known for his love of German military tactics from the 1800’s and certainly changed the words a bit for his own use.
Regardless, you get the idea. Jason Garrett, Scott Linehan, Jerry Jones, Will McClay, and Stephen Jones had countless conversations and meetings from January until August to figure out why things went so poorly in 2017. They had to make swift decisions to make sure last year’s failings would not repeat themselves. The meetings resulted in many assistant coaches not being invited back. More significantly, the team moved on from Dez Bryant to help facilitate a new offensive setting where the young QB could flourish without distractions. They moved some pieces out and other pieces in. Those new faces looked confident that they had answers to the questions, too.
The Cowboys tried to rearrange the furniture to solve their problems. They decided against bulldozing the entire house and starting over. In fact, you have read my thoughts a number of times about this, in which I quoted a wise football man I know about changes. He told me if the head coach and both coordinators are the same, then you really didn’t change much of anything. No third-tier (positional) coach is going to make a major impact on a staff whose three biggest seats are filled with the same guys who occupied them five seasons ago.
The issues were clear. In last season’s final eight games, the offense’s production stopped. The trend began that day in Atlanta and has shown no signs of letting up. One theory was that it was completely due to Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension and probably Tyron Smith’s injury. Those two issues allowed the pair to play together for just three snaps in those final eight games. Surely getting them both back to their posts would fix a big portion of this.
The first half of 2017, this was the fifth-highest-scoring offense in the league at 28.3 points per game. The 370 yards of total offense ranked eighth, the passing yards were right at 222 yards (nearly league average, 17th), and the touchdowns were second-highest in the NFL. After the debacle against Atlanta, everything fell through the floor. Scoring dropped to 16 PPG (28th), the total offense was 26th, the passing offense was 30th and Dallas fell to 24th in touchdowns.
The Cowboys went away for nine months to fix things and to design something that could fix the issues. Zeke and Tyron would be back (of course, Travis Frederick would then exit). Where are they through 3 weeks?
31st in points, 30th in yards, 31st in passing yards, and of course, 30th in touchdowns.
You’re reading that right. They might actually be worse than they were before they made their offseason changes.
On Sunday in Seattle, we saw much more of the same. They played a defense that certainly has some nice pieces — especially with Bobby Wagner back in the mix — but the offense showed no real teeth again, rolling up 13 points and barely 300 yards again (a last-moment heave on 4th and 22 to gain 20 yards knocked the total above 300 yards to 303). That should be particularly discouraging – because as bad as the offense looked yesterday, that was actually the most prolific yardage day this offense has had since they went for 330 in Oakland six games ago. Given that the league average is 350, they can boast that since Atlanta (the game that necessitated a hard look at every component of their coaching staff) they have eclipsed the league-average offensive day one time. 9% is not going to pass any tests.
We can discuss this offense from a number of angles. Unfortunately, none of them are going to be very positive. They look completely devoid of identity, confidence, or solutions. The problem certainly starts with a QB who lost his groove. We can discuss how that happened, but he left the Kansas City game last year in early November as one of the NFL’s most accomplished young QBs. Since he took that beating in Atlanta — eight sacks and countless hits — he has not been the same.
That was why I originally hoped that the divider between seasons would be so valuable. Get away, clear your head, start anew. That might allow him to find more from the first 24 games before Atlanta rather than the last two months of 2017.
Instead, the game in Seattle Sunday was suspiciously identical from an offensive perspective to the matchups in Week 1, Week 2, and everything down the stretch last year (save for that odd week in New York against a Giants team that mailed it in long before that). Over the last six games, the Cowboys have been atrocious on third down, converting 29.2% (21 of 72). Last year, the worst third-down team in the NFL on was Miami (playing with Jay Cutler, remember) and they were at nearly 32%.
Prescott, when playing with swagger and confidence, looks like a decent NFL QB. I realize by saying that, I am angering a big group of readers, but I believe it. I saw it often in those first 24 games (plus maybe his best performance in his only playoff game) and know he has it in him. But, when he plays with hesitation, tentativeness, and an overall lack of self-belief, he sabotages his own efforts. He plays like a guy who has too much noise in his head – perhaps it is hearing he isn’t good enough too many times, his GM throwing him to the media’s mercy with the national anthem discussions, or maybe the chance of a mega-contract has flooded his mind. It doesn’t matter. Those mental tests of quarterbacks are what reveals whether they’re worthy of these rare opportunities. Failure is what disqualifies them and Prescott’s clock is ticking louder than ever.
Last week, we saw what this team can look like if Dak keeps them on schedule, wins with his feet, and stays out of trouble — all combined with an early lead. This week, we saw what happens if the opponent attacks relentlessly and destroys any early confidence.
But the belief was that even if Dak does not turn into the gunslinger his predecessor was, at least you would have “the best offensive line and running back in football” to use as a massive crutch.
Unfortunately, that is just not working out very well. While 11 sacks allowed in 3 games doesn’t make them the league’s worst in that regard, it is too close considering the investments they’ve made. Dallas is 25th in the league in sacks allowed. And yes, there are some big runs to make the stats look nice, but on 3rd and 1 when you need it most, Bobby Wagner busted in untouched and unblocked, blowing up Ezekiel Elliott in the middle of the line.
Speaking of Elliott, if they are trying to “build around a RB” in a league that hasn’t done that much recently, his bar is going to be awfully high. And in a 7-0 street-fight, you cannot take touchdowns off the board because you had no idea where you were standing. That is absolutely ridiculous. The Cowboys badly needed their QB to make a play on third down as it appeared he did with 5:30 to go in the half. Unfortunately, for no good reason whatsoever, Elliott just lost his location and cost the team a big moment by wandering out of bounds. He also cost the team the drive before with his third-down drop where he had a footrace to extend a drive. And did so again by fumbling after a long run early in the fourth quarter. I am certainly not pinning this bad day on Elliott, but you aren’t expecting him to end three different drives by himself on self-inflicted errors. Trying to avoid an unblocked Bobby Wagner is not on him, but dropping a ball, wandering out of bounds on another, and not protecting the ball well enough late in a play are all things you won’t overcome when the offense is counting on you.
The Cowboys turned the ball over three times on Sunday – which is definitely well beyond the boundaries of their limitations. In the last decade, when they are a “minus 3” in the turnover battle, they have gone 1-21. Somehow they beat the Giants in Week 1 of 2015, but there is no way that is anything more than a fluke. If you give the ball away three times and don’t get it back once, you will lose. And they did so comfortably yesterday.
The game and the countless offensive issues with this team can best be summarized with the first play of yesterday’s second quarter. If those of us who follow the team know that the Cowboys always use the play-action bootleg with both tight ends on shallow drag routes as a first-half drive-starter from that spot on the field in every game in the last few years, you can believe opponents know it. The play is so clearly worn-out by Linehan that Babe Laufenberg actually joked about it during the preseason game in San Francisco this year. Well, if you were the Seahawks, you knew it was coming and the best remedy for a play like that is to run right at Dak Prescott with the backside unblocked DE. If you run right at him, you will get an untouched sack which, of course, will destroy the drive before it even starts.
Sure enough, there it was, and Barkevious Mingo sat on it and destroyed it. Philadelphia did that same thing last November.
The Cowboys’ offensive players have no confidence because their coaches don’t consistently win their own strategic battle with those across the field. The countless wide receivers and tight ends have no established role that they can get comfortable with because there are roughly 11 pass catchers in the fold right now. If you have 11 pass catchers, you might not have any.
This offense is a mess on every level right now – just like they were last November and December. Jerry Jones (and whoever else has their hands on the steering wheel these days) inexplicably did not upgrade the brain trust when given the chance, and then doubled down by replacing Dez Bryant with an assortment of second- and third-tier replacements. So the 2017 team that featured Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Cole Beasley now features Beasley as the only established threat.
Now opponents sit on Elliott and dare anyone else — literally anyone else on the offense — to beat them.
And unfortunately, you see how well that is going. Tyson and “Moltke the Elder” would probably tell you right now this is what getting hit feels like.
Discouraging. It feels very, very discouraging.
By Bob Sturm Sep 24, 2018
Discouraging.
If you had to pick a word to describe in totality what was seen in Seattle on Sunday from a Cowboys team that had a chance to show if they were good this year, I would probably offer you that.
Simply discouraging.
This is why the countless press briefings and rhetoric of an offseason are just not that compelling in the big scheme of things. The Cowboys can say that they have spent all offseason planning for such occasions as Sunday. They can and did say they were able to discover a number of breakthroughs in their offensive tactics and strategies, that they will be far more prepared for the challenges 2018 holds. But all that does is fill space in the middle of the spring or summer when talking football helps pass the time. There is no accountability to those facts and aside from some very controlled environments in training camp (and almost no preseason action), they don’t have to show a single card to the world.
We simply wait until September, for there is nowhere to hide once the regular season begins. The schedule planned trips to Carolina and Seattle. Either they had worked out their problems with the offense going from bad to worse when it travels or they had not. The proof will then be nationally televised. The assurances and perceived confidence that they spoke with during the offseason would be tested thoroughly on those sixteen game days.
This is the moment that Mike Tyson spoke about so eloquently: “Everyone has a plan until they’ve been hit.” In truth, it’s actually a variation of the old German field general Helmet von Moltke’s (Moltke the Elder, of course) quote: “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy”. Tyson was known for his love of German military tactics from the 1800’s and certainly changed the words a bit for his own use.
Regardless, you get the idea. Jason Garrett, Scott Linehan, Jerry Jones, Will McClay, and Stephen Jones had countless conversations and meetings from January until August to figure out why things went so poorly in 2017. They had to make swift decisions to make sure last year’s failings would not repeat themselves. The meetings resulted in many assistant coaches not being invited back. More significantly, the team moved on from Dez Bryant to help facilitate a new offensive setting where the young QB could flourish without distractions. They moved some pieces out and other pieces in. Those new faces looked confident that they had answers to the questions, too.
The Cowboys tried to rearrange the furniture to solve their problems. They decided against bulldozing the entire house and starting over. In fact, you have read my thoughts a number of times about this, in which I quoted a wise football man I know about changes. He told me if the head coach and both coordinators are the same, then you really didn’t change much of anything. No third-tier (positional) coach is going to make a major impact on a staff whose three biggest seats are filled with the same guys who occupied them five seasons ago.
The issues were clear. In last season’s final eight games, the offense’s production stopped. The trend began that day in Atlanta and has shown no signs of letting up. One theory was that it was completely due to Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension and probably Tyron Smith’s injury. Those two issues allowed the pair to play together for just three snaps in those final eight games. Surely getting them both back to their posts would fix a big portion of this.
The first half of 2017, this was the fifth-highest-scoring offense in the league at 28.3 points per game. The 370 yards of total offense ranked eighth, the passing yards were right at 222 yards (nearly league average, 17th), and the touchdowns were second-highest in the NFL. After the debacle against Atlanta, everything fell through the floor. Scoring dropped to 16 PPG (28th), the total offense was 26th, the passing offense was 30th and Dallas fell to 24th in touchdowns.
The Cowboys went away for nine months to fix things and to design something that could fix the issues. Zeke and Tyron would be back (of course, Travis Frederick would then exit). Where are they through 3 weeks?
31st in points, 30th in yards, 31st in passing yards, and of course, 30th in touchdowns.
You’re reading that right. They might actually be worse than they were before they made their offseason changes.
On Sunday in Seattle, we saw much more of the same. They played a defense that certainly has some nice pieces — especially with Bobby Wagner back in the mix — but the offense showed no real teeth again, rolling up 13 points and barely 300 yards again (a last-moment heave on 4th and 22 to gain 20 yards knocked the total above 300 yards to 303). That should be particularly discouraging – because as bad as the offense looked yesterday, that was actually the most prolific yardage day this offense has had since they went for 330 in Oakland six games ago. Given that the league average is 350, they can boast that since Atlanta (the game that necessitated a hard look at every component of their coaching staff) they have eclipsed the league-average offensive day one time. 9% is not going to pass any tests.
We can discuss this offense from a number of angles. Unfortunately, none of them are going to be very positive. They look completely devoid of identity, confidence, or solutions. The problem certainly starts with a QB who lost his groove. We can discuss how that happened, but he left the Kansas City game last year in early November as one of the NFL’s most accomplished young QBs. Since he took that beating in Atlanta — eight sacks and countless hits — he has not been the same.
That was why I originally hoped that the divider between seasons would be so valuable. Get away, clear your head, start anew. That might allow him to find more from the first 24 games before Atlanta rather than the last two months of 2017.
Instead, the game in Seattle Sunday was suspiciously identical from an offensive perspective to the matchups in Week 1, Week 2, and everything down the stretch last year (save for that odd week in New York against a Giants team that mailed it in long before that). Over the last six games, the Cowboys have been atrocious on third down, converting 29.2% (21 of 72). Last year, the worst third-down team in the NFL on was Miami (playing with Jay Cutler, remember) and they were at nearly 32%.
Prescott, when playing with swagger and confidence, looks like a decent NFL QB. I realize by saying that, I am angering a big group of readers, but I believe it. I saw it often in those first 24 games (plus maybe his best performance in his only playoff game) and know he has it in him. But, when he plays with hesitation, tentativeness, and an overall lack of self-belief, he sabotages his own efforts. He plays like a guy who has too much noise in his head – perhaps it is hearing he isn’t good enough too many times, his GM throwing him to the media’s mercy with the national anthem discussions, or maybe the chance of a mega-contract has flooded his mind. It doesn’t matter. Those mental tests of quarterbacks are what reveals whether they’re worthy of these rare opportunities. Failure is what disqualifies them and Prescott’s clock is ticking louder than ever.
Last week, we saw what this team can look like if Dak keeps them on schedule, wins with his feet, and stays out of trouble — all combined with an early lead. This week, we saw what happens if the opponent attacks relentlessly and destroys any early confidence.
But the belief was that even if Dak does not turn into the gunslinger his predecessor was, at least you would have “the best offensive line and running back in football” to use as a massive crutch.
Unfortunately, that is just not working out very well. While 11 sacks allowed in 3 games doesn’t make them the league’s worst in that regard, it is too close considering the investments they’ve made. Dallas is 25th in the league in sacks allowed. And yes, there are some big runs to make the stats look nice, but on 3rd and 1 when you need it most, Bobby Wagner busted in untouched and unblocked, blowing up Ezekiel Elliott in the middle of the line.
Speaking of Elliott, if they are trying to “build around a RB” in a league that hasn’t done that much recently, his bar is going to be awfully high. And in a 7-0 street-fight, you cannot take touchdowns off the board because you had no idea where you were standing. That is absolutely ridiculous. The Cowboys badly needed their QB to make a play on third down as it appeared he did with 5:30 to go in the half. Unfortunately, for no good reason whatsoever, Elliott just lost his location and cost the team a big moment by wandering out of bounds. He also cost the team the drive before with his third-down drop where he had a footrace to extend a drive. And did so again by fumbling after a long run early in the fourth quarter. I am certainly not pinning this bad day on Elliott, but you aren’t expecting him to end three different drives by himself on self-inflicted errors. Trying to avoid an unblocked Bobby Wagner is not on him, but dropping a ball, wandering out of bounds on another, and not protecting the ball well enough late in a play are all things you won’t overcome when the offense is counting on you.
The Cowboys turned the ball over three times on Sunday – which is definitely well beyond the boundaries of their limitations. In the last decade, when they are a “minus 3” in the turnover battle, they have gone 1-21. Somehow they beat the Giants in Week 1 of 2015, but there is no way that is anything more than a fluke. If you give the ball away three times and don’t get it back once, you will lose. And they did so comfortably yesterday.
The game and the countless offensive issues with this team can best be summarized with the first play of yesterday’s second quarter. If those of us who follow the team know that the Cowboys always use the play-action bootleg with both tight ends on shallow drag routes as a first-half drive-starter from that spot on the field in every game in the last few years, you can believe opponents know it. The play is so clearly worn-out by Linehan that Babe Laufenberg actually joked about it during the preseason game in San Francisco this year. Well, if you were the Seahawks, you knew it was coming and the best remedy for a play like that is to run right at Dak Prescott with the backside unblocked DE. If you run right at him, you will get an untouched sack which, of course, will destroy the drive before it even starts.
Sure enough, there it was, and Barkevious Mingo sat on it and destroyed it. Philadelphia did that same thing last November.
The Cowboys’ offensive players have no confidence because their coaches don’t consistently win their own strategic battle with those across the field. The countless wide receivers and tight ends have no established role that they can get comfortable with because there are roughly 11 pass catchers in the fold right now. If you have 11 pass catchers, you might not have any.
This offense is a mess on every level right now – just like they were last November and December. Jerry Jones (and whoever else has their hands on the steering wheel these days) inexplicably did not upgrade the brain trust when given the chance, and then doubled down by replacing Dez Bryant with an assortment of second- and third-tier replacements. So the 2017 team that featured Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Cole Beasley now features Beasley as the only established threat.
Now opponents sit on Elliott and dare anyone else — literally anyone else on the offense — to beat them.
And unfortunately, you see how well that is going. Tyson and “Moltke the Elder” would probably tell you right now this is what getting hit feels like.
Discouraging. It feels very, very discouraging.
