Two Years Later, Dak Prescott Has Problems

p1_

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Two Years Later, Dak Prescott Has Problems

With the NFL’s worst group of pass-catchers and their all-world center sidelined indefinitely, the Cowboys need to come up with a new approach on offense. Plus, the 49ers now find themselves with two great young linebackers, keep a close eye on how Matt Patricia’s Lions attack the Patriots’ defense, DeSean Jackson as the all-time deep weapon, and re-thinking how we set up buffets

By Andy Benoit September 19, 2018

In 2016, Dak Prescott played under better conditions than any rookie QB in history, if not any QB period. His offensive line was a step beyond dominant, giving the Cowboys a commanding running game and its quarterback routinely clean pockets from which to throw. Defenses were still treating Dez Bryant like a No. 1 receiver, rolling safety help his way. That clarified Prescott's reads, presenting obvious one-on-one throws in other parts of the field. Underneath, Prescott had the ultimate security blanket in tight end Jason Witten, and a mismatch-maker in shifty slot ace Cole Beasley. On top of it all, Prescott was new, so defenses had little film on him. The young QB capitalized on these conditions, posting a 104.9 passer rating and guiding the Cowboys to a 13-3 season.

To outside observers, America’s Team had its franchise QB. But within the NFL, some of the old guard cautioned to pump the brakes. History suggested—nay, guaranteed—that those perfect conditions would not last. Prescott should only be evaluated once his circumstances normalized.

Sure enough, they have. This season, that offensive line has been less imposing without superstar center Travis Frederick, who is out indefinitely while he recovers from Guillain-Barre Syndrome, a disorder that affects the nervous system. Without Frederick, Ezekiel Elliott and the ground game has been, at least by 2016 standards, spotty. Defenses figured out last year that Bryant was washed up; they stopped rolling coverage his way, and so this offseason the Cowboys stopped employing him. He’s now out of football. So is Jason Witten, who retired to fill Jon Gruden’s vacant MNF seat. Beasley is still around, but as anyone with even a smidgen of football acumen suspected, he’s more dynamic as a third or fourth option.

These aren’t dire straits Dallas is in, they’re regular NFL “straits,” which is why the Cowboys’ record since 2016—10-8, including their 1-1 start this year—is almost perfectly average. Quarterbacks get paid to spin gold from “perfectly average.” Head coach Jason Garrett and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan must figure out how to help Prescott do that.

Over the years, Garrett and Linehan have run a simplistic passing attack, featuring spread formations and basic route designs. Prescott, who played in a spread system at Mississippi State, is comfortable here. The problem is, this approach requires receivers who can win in space. Dallas’s current receiving corps resembles a rotation you’d see in the second quarter of a preseason game. Garrett and Linehan learned the hard way in the Week 1 loss at Carolina that a basic passing attack won't work. Guys couldn't get open and Prescott threw with little sense of timing and poor accuracy.

He was much better in Week 2 against the Giants, but it was far from a pristine offensive performance overall. Take out Tavon Austin’s early 64-yard touchdown and the Cowboys had 96 yards passing on 24 dropbacks. On the bright side, their running game got going in the second half, finishing with 138 yards on the night, including 45 from Prescott, who flourished on read-options.

Conceptually, those read-options speak to what the Cowboys must do. Those are highly schemed designs that put defenders in an intellectual bind. That must be the approach Dallas takes with its passing game. To win with average receivers, you must win through design. Replace the spread formations and quasi-isolation routes with pre-snap motion, trips bunches and tight formations, where receivers align close to the ball and run intersecting routes that have enough space to go left or right. And run the ball from some of these looks to propagate misdirection and play-action concepts.

Not only is this the best approach given Prescott’s surroundings, it’s the best approach given Prescott himself. He is a facilitating type of QB. He plays with a high pre-snap IQ, a poised post-snap decision-making process and a good-but-not-great arm, mixed with upper-shelf mobility. If this were basketball, he’d be a point guard who could shoot decently from 22 feet in and control the game with the ball in his hands—like a Rajon Rondo, only with leadership skills.

A highly schemed offense gives a quarterback more defined reads, which will help Prescott play with the decisiveness that he sometimes lacks. An offense doesn’t become highly schemed overnight. Given that these updates would have to be implemented on the fly, the best Dallas can do right now is take some of its basic concepts and employ them out of different formations, creating the illusion of complexity. Getting back to their play-action bootleg game and building more passes off the read-option looks would help. That leverages Prescott’s mobility, which is what defenses fear most. When the defense fears Prescott’s legs, its backside players tend to play cautiously, which can help open an outside zone running game that, even without Frederick, should be snappier than we've seen so far.

This week presents a perfect opportunity to implement changes. The Cowboys are facing a Seahawks defense that has a bevy of struggling rookies, a paucity of pass rushers and a mostly predictable zone-based system. That’s ideal for running highly schemed offensive plays.

This would take some guts from Garrett. There could be short-term growing pains that jeopardize the path to an NFC East title—something Jerry Jones can reasonably believe exists given his team’s ascending defense. But long-term for this season, and certainly for Prescott’s career, the best move is to reshape the offense around its young QB.
 

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Two Years Later, Dak Prescott Has Problems

With the NFL’s worst group of pass-catchers and their all-world center sidelined indefinitely, the Cowboys need to come up with a new approach on offense. Plus, the 49ers now find themselves with two great young linebackers, keep a close eye on how Matt Patricia’s Lions attack the Patriots’ defense, DeSean Jackson as the all-time deep weapon, and re-thinking how we set up buffets

By Andy Benoit September 19, 2018

In 2016, Dak Prescott played under better conditions than any rookie QB in history, if not any QB period. His offensive line was a step beyond dominant, giving the Cowboys a commanding running game and its quarterback routinely clean pockets from which to throw. Defenses were still treating Dez Bryant like a No. 1 receiver, rolling safety help his way. That clarified Prescott's reads, presenting obvious one-on-one throws in other parts of the field. Underneath, Prescott had the ultimate security blanket in tight end Jason Witten, and a mismatch-maker in shifty slot ace Cole Beasley. On top of it all, Prescott was new, so defenses had little film on him. The young QB capitalized on these conditions, posting a 104.9 passer rating and guiding the Cowboys to a 13-3 season.

To outside observers, America’s Team had its franchise QB. But within the NFL, some of the old guard cautioned to pump the brakes. History suggested—nay, guaranteed—that those perfect conditions would not last. Prescott should only be evaluated once his circumstances normalized.

Sure enough, they have. This season, that offensive line has been less imposing without superstar center Travis Frederick, who is out indefinitely while he recovers from Guillain-Barre Syndrome, a disorder that affects the nervous system. Without Frederick, Ezekiel Elliott and the ground game has been, at least by 2016 standards, spotty. Defenses figured out last year that Bryant was washed up; they stopped rolling coverage his way, and so this offseason the Cowboys stopped employing him. He’s now out of football. So is Jason Witten, who retired to fill Jon Gruden’s vacant MNF seat. Beasley is still around, but as anyone with even a smidgen of football acumen suspected, he’s more dynamic as a third or fourth option.

These aren’t dire straits Dallas is in, they’re regular NFL “straits,” which is why the Cowboys’ record since 2016—10-8, including their 1-1 start this year—is almost perfectly average. Quarterbacks get paid to spin gold from “perfectly average.” Head coach Jason Garrett and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan must figure out how to help Prescott do that.

Over the years, Garrett and Linehan have run a simplistic passing attack, featuring spread formations and basic route designs. Prescott, who played in a spread system at Mississippi State, is comfortable here. The problem is, this approach requires receivers who can win in space. Dallas’s current receiving corps resembles a rotation you’d see in the second quarter of a preseason game. Garrett and Linehan learned the hard way in the Week 1 loss at Carolina that a basic passing attack won't work. Guys couldn't get open and Prescott threw with little sense of timing and poor accuracy.

He was much better in Week 2 against the Giants, but it was far from a pristine offensive performance overall. Take out Tavon Austin’s early 64-yard touchdown and the Cowboys had 96 yards passing on 24 dropbacks. On the bright side, their running game got going in the second half, finishing with 138 yards on the night, including 45 from Prescott, who flourished on read-options.

Conceptually, those read-options speak to what the Cowboys must do. Those are highly schemed designs that put defenders in an intellectual bind. That must be the approach Dallas takes with its passing game. To win with average receivers, you must win through design. Replace the spread formations and quasi-isolation routes with pre-snap motion, trips bunches and tight formations, where receivers align close to the ball and run intersecting routes that have enough space to go left or right. And run the ball from some of these looks to propagate misdirection and play-action concepts.

Not only is this the best approach given Prescott’s surroundings, it’s the best approach given Prescott himself. He is a facilitating type of QB. He plays with a high pre-snap IQ, a poised post-snap decision-making process and a good-but-not-great arm, mixed with upper-shelf mobility. If this were basketball, he’d be a point guard who could shoot decently from 22 feet in and control the game with the ball in his hands—like a Rajon Rondo, only with leadership skills.

A highly schemed offense gives a quarterback more defined reads, which will help Prescott play with the decisiveness that he sometimes lacks. An offense doesn’t become highly schemed overnight. Given that these updates would have to be implemented on the fly, the best Dallas can do right now is take some of its basic concepts and employ them out of different formations, creating the illusion of complexity. Getting back to their play-action bootleg game and building more passes off the read-option looks would help. That leverages Prescott’s mobility, which is what defenses fear most. When the defense fears Prescott’s legs, its backside players tend to play cautiously, which can help open an outside zone running game that, even without Frederick, should be snappier than we've seen so far.

This week presents a perfect opportunity to implement changes. The Cowboys are facing a Seahawks defense that has a bevy of struggling rookies, a paucity of pass rushers and a mostly predictable zone-based system. That’s ideal for running highly schemed offensive plays.

This would take some guts from Garrett. There could be short-term growing pains that jeopardize the path to an NFC East title—something Jerry Jones can reasonably believe exists given his team’s ascending defense. But long-term for this season, and certainly for Prescott’s career, the best move is to reshape the offense around its young QB.
I guess I must be one of the old guard.
 

Stars

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Take out Tavon Austin’s early 64-yard touchdown and the Cowboys had 96 yards passing on 24 dropbacks.
I hate when people do this. If you're going to use stats to make a point, you shouldn't take out certain stats that don't fit your narrative. The very fact he did hit that pass is a big deal. I'm not saying Dak doesn't have a long road ahead of him to be the long-term answer at QB, because he does - but taking out his good moments when you're arguing your point, just makes me think you have an agenda.

Ya know, take away 700 home runs from Babe Ruth and he's just a slap-hitting fat boy.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I hate when people do this. If you're going to use stats to make a point, you shouldn't take out certain stats that don't fit your narrative. The very fact he did hit that pass is a big deal. I'm not saying Dak doesn't have a long road ahead of him to be the long-term answer at QB, because he does - but taking out his good moments when you're arguing your point, just makes me think you have an agenda.

Ya know, take away 700 home runs from Babe Ruth and he's just a slap-hitting fat boy.
I agree. Especially when it wasn't just some fluke play. If Zeke took a screen pass 80 yards there is more of an argument to exclude it. But that Austin pass was a great read and throw downfield. You can't exclude it like Dak didn't earn those stats.
 

L.T. Fan

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I hate when people do this. If you're going to use stats to make a point, you shouldn't take out certain stats that don't fit your narrative. The very fact he did hit that pass is a big deal. I'm not saying Dak doesn't have a long road ahead of him to be the long-term answer at QB, because he does - but taking out his good moments when you're arguing your point, just makes me think you have an agenda.

Ya know, take away 700 home runs from Babe Ruth and he's just a slap-hitting fat boy.
There are times when these type comparisons are needed to make a point. I think the example points out in a glaring manner that the passing game for Dallas was virtually absent for the better part of three quarters. That is cause for concern. I agree that there are times when cherry picking information skews reality but I think in this case it makes an alarming example. Remember that it’s not just aimed at Dak. It aimed at the entire group of receivers and play callers as well.
 

Smitty

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I agree. Especially when it wasn't just some fluke play. If Zeke took a screen pass 80 yards there is more of an argument to exclude it. But that Austin pass was a great read and throw downfield. You can't exclude it like Dak didn't earn those stats.
No, but it does indicate struggles after that pass.
 

Cowboysrock55

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No, but it does indicate struggles after that pass.
Sort of. Although if you're talking about yards per attempt every QB's numbers are inflated by there big plays. So it's not really truthful for example to compare what his yards per attempt was after the big play with other QBs that you're including their big plays. It's comparing apples to oranges at that point. If you take out QB's big plays I'm not really sure what a good YPA would be.

A stat that I really like that ESPN uses is QBR. Dak's QBR in game one was a pathetic 23.7 for example. Against the Giants his QBR was 77.9. Sort of shows you what a turnaround there really was from one game to the next. There is still a lot of work to do but in the big picture we want Dak completing those 60 yard passes to loosen up the defense. So obviously the fact that he was able to complete one shouldn't be viewed as some sort of a knock. It's actually a nice positive. We just want to see more of it.
 

L.T. Fan

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Sort of. Although if you're talking about yards per attempt every QB's numbers are inflated by there big plays. So it's not really truthful for example to compare what his yards per attempt was after the big play with other QBs that you're including their big plays. It's comparing apples to oranges at that point. If you take out QB's big plays I'm not really sure what a good YPA would be.

A stat that I really like that ESPN uses is QBR. Dak's QBR in game one was a pathetic 23.7 for example. Against the Giants his QBR was 77.9. Sort of shows you what a turnaround there really was from one game to the next. There is still a lot of work to do but in the big picture we want Dak completing those 60 yard passes to loosen up the defense. So obviously the fact that he was able to complete one shouldn't be viewed as some sort of a knock. It's actually a nice positive. We just want to see more of it.
You can always skew numbers but that isnt the point in the instant case. There are not enough numbers to skew this season when it comes to the Dallas passing game. Virtually all the numbers are pretty bad. The one bright spot is used as an example to show how it actually made this game as bad or worse than the norm. The screwball system has caught up with the team because the one person that made the Cowboys passing game work in the past is gone. This article chronicles very well what the current system and players are actually not accomplishing. Further it points out how the numbers were attained the rookie year for Prescott. It was a departure from the norm and worked well for the circumstances but the personnel that it took to make it happen are also for the most part gone and the usual system was reimplemented. It a very good analysis of what occurred. It not a judgement of just the quarterback.
 

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You can always skew numbers but that isnt the point in the instant case. There are not enough numbers to skew this season when it comes to the Dallas passing game. Virtually all the numbers are pretty bad. The one bright spot is used as an example to show how it actually made this game as bad or worse than the norm. The screwball system has caught up with the team because the one person that made the Cowboys passing game work in the past is gone. This article chronicles very well what the current system and players are actually not accomplishing. Further it points out how the numbers were attained the rookie year for Prescott. It was a departure from the norm and worked well for the circumstances but the personnel that it took to make it happen are also for the most part gone and the usual system was reimplemented. It a very good analysis of what occurred. It not a judgement of just the quarterback.
The article always claims that Dak had possibly the best surrounding cast of all time. Which is one of the most ridiculous statements I've ever read. Hard to take an article seriously when it claims bullshit like that.

In 2016, Dak Prescott played under better conditions than any rookie QB in history, if not any QB period.

When this is the opening line in an article it's hard to take it seriously.
 

L.T. Fan

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The article always claims that Dak had possibly the best surrounding cast of all time. Which is one of the most ridiculous statements I've ever read. Hard to take an article seriously when it claims bullshit like that.

In 2016, Dak Prescott played under better conditions than any rookie QB in history, if not any QB period.

When this is the opening line in an article it's hard to take it seriously.
Really. Everyone and their distant cousins were touting the best OL and reciever Corp tha Dallas had had in years. I,ll bet if you could go back on this site to that period most of this group felt the same way.
 

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Really. Everyone and their distant cousins were touting the best OL and reciever Corp tha Dallas had had in years. I,ll bet if you could go back on this site to that period most of this group felt the same way.
So you think that cast was better then Irvin, Harper, Novacek, Emmitt Smith and the early 90's O-line?

Dak had a great cast surrounding him but you're high or drunk if you think it was the best ever.
 

L.T. Fan

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So you think that cast was better then Irvin, Harper, Novacek, Emmitt Smith and the early 90's O-line?

Dak had a great cast surrounding him but you're high or drunk if you think it was the best ever.
I didn’t say that. I said many on the site were saying it was the best in a long time. This writer said maybe of all time. And you are awfully knewjerk about this article. It’s like Dak is your little brother.
 

Cowboysrock55

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I didn’t say that. I said many on the site were saying it was the best in a long time. This writer said maybe of all time. And you are awfully knewjerk about this article. It’s like Dak is your little brother.
That's awfully hateful of you. But I'd be happy if Dak was my brother, seems like a very nice man.

Just pointing out that an article that starts out with a statement that is so unbelievably false tends to have an agenda. It's not like I'm on here posting ridiculous articles that claim Dak has the worst supporting case in the NFL. Because I don't believe that to be true either.

I do think QBR is the best way to judge a QB's performance though if you're curious. It has the strongest correlation of any statistic between a QB winning or losing a game. On the flip side of it passing yards have the weakest correlation which is where you'll see I form the basis for most of my QB opinions. I want a QB who wins games.
 

deadrise

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I was going to copy and post this same SI piece, but, typically, for me, I was late to the game.

I think slamming the author for cherry picking stats to make a point misses the larger point of the article.

It's damning indictment of Garrett's ineptness and incompetence. For example: "Over the years, Garrett and Linehan have run a simplistic passing attack, featuring spread formations and basic route designs. Prescott, who played in a spread system at Mississippi State, is comfortable here. The problem is, this approach requires receivers who can win in space."

Bryant and Witten could win in space and Romo could get the ball to them. But even at that the knock on Garrett has always been that his scheme is primitive and simplistic. Bryant said last year that defenses know what's coming when everybody lines up in the same place for 17 Sundays. And what that means is that not only is Garret inept and unimaginative he's also lazy. The onus is not on him to be creative and innovative -- he places the onus instead on receivers and the QB to "win" and execute. When things don't work he can blame them -- talk about going back to "look at the tape" and "just work harder."

Then the writer even lays it all out for Garrett: "Conceptually, those read-options speak to what the Cowboys must do. Those are highly schemed designs that put defenders in an intellectual bind. That must be the approach Dallas takes with its passing game. To win with average receivers, you must win through design. Replace the spread formations and quasi-isolation routes with pre-snap motion, trips bunches and tight formations, where receivers align close to the ball and run intersecting routes that have enough space to go left or right. And run the ball from some of these looks to propagate misdirection and play-action concepts.

"Not only is this the best approach given Prescott’s surroundings, it’s the best approach given Prescott himself. He is a facilitating type of QB. He plays with a high pre-snap IQ, a poised post-snap decision-making process and a good-but-not-great arm, mixed with upper-shelf mobility. If this were basketball, he’d be a point guard who could shoot decently from 22 feet in and control the game with the ball in his hands—like a Rajon Rondo, only with leadership skills.

"A highly schemed offense gives a quarterback more defined reads, which will help Prescott play with the decisiveness that he sometimes lacks. An offense doesn’t become highly schemed overnight. Given that these updates would have to be implemented on the fly, the best Dallas can do right now is take some of its basic concepts and employ them out of different formations, creating the illusion of complexity. Getting back to their play-action bootleg game and building more passes off the read-option looks would help. That leverages Prescott’s mobility, which is what defenses fear most. When the defense fears Prescott’s legs, its backside players tend to play cautiously, which can help open an outside zone running game that, even without Frederick, should be snappier than we've seen so far."


So why doesn't Garrett have enough of a football mind to figure those things out? Romo, Witten and Bryant are gone. What worked for them in the passing game probably won't work anymore. But Garrett and Linehan are too lazy and unimaginative to adapt to changing circumstances. Their answer, instead of adapting to Dak's skill set, is to assemble a massive offensive line and keep handing the ball to Elliott.

But then the writer really nails the crux of the problem. Adapting the offensive scheme on the fly "... would take some guts from Garrett. There could be short-term growing pains that jeopardize the path to an NFC East title—something Jerry Jones can reasonably believe exists given his team’s ascending defense. But long-term for this season, and certainly for Prescott’s career, the best move is to reshape the offense around its young QB."

Guts, imagination, creativity? Sorry those things aren't in Garrett's toolbox.
 

p1_

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Guts, imagination, creativity? Sorry those things aren't in Garrett's toolbox.

Nor is the ability to adapt, change and grow to fit modern offensive philosophy.
 

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I hate when people do this. If you're going to use stats to make a point, you shouldn't take out certain stats that don't fit your narrative. The very fact he did hit that pass is a big deal. I'm not saying Dak doesn't have a long road ahead of him to be the long-term answer at QB, because he does - but taking out his good moments when you're arguing your point, just makes me think you have an agenda.

Ya know, take away 700 home runs from Babe Ruth and he's just a slap-hitting fat boy.

Completely disagree. When you take out an outlier it gives you a much more accurate depiction of the player's performance.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Completely disagree. When you take out an outlier it gives you a much more accurate depiction of the player's performance.
Do you ignore every ball that's thrown away to avoid a sack then? And how do you compare it to other NFL QBs, are you taking every big play they make out of their stats too? I get what you're saying. But it's hard to find a frame of reference once you start including some stats and excluding others. I have no idea what a good YPA number is in the NFL if you remove the "outlier" throws.
 

L.T. Fan

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That's awfully hateful of you. But I'd be happy if Dak was my brother, seems like a very nice man.

Just pointing out that an article that starts out with a statement that is so unbelievably false tends to have an agenda. It's not like I'm on here posting ridiculous articles that claim Dak has the worst supporting case in the NFL. Because I don't believe that to be true either.

I do think QBR is the best way to judge a QB's performance though if you're curious. It has the strongest correlation of any statistic between a QB winning or losing a game. On the flip side of it passing yards have the weakest correlation which is where you'll see I form the basis for most of my QB opinions. I want a QB who wins games.
Wasn’t meant to be hateful but it was meant to open you mind to the fact that you were putting words in my mouth. And in addition being over protective of Prescott. One would think I was the one that wrote the article.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Wasn’t meant to be hateful but it was meant to open you mind to the fact that you were putting words in my mouth. And in addition being over protective of Prescott. One would think I was the one that wrote the article.
Sorry you seemed to be defending the position that Dak had one of the best surrounding casts of all time as a rookie. It's just a ridiculous statement is all I'm saying.

It was a very good cast on offense. But all time great? No that's laughable. Not sure how stating that is defending Dak but it's the truth so I'll take solace in that.
 

deadrise

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Guys, guys -- you're getting bogged down in debates over semantics, not seeing the forest for the trees.

Chalk up Benoit's first sentence to sloppy writing, sloppy reasoning, or both. Put aside whether manipulating stats to suit an argument is sports writing heresy. Here's what he says about Dak: "He is a facilitating type of QB. He plays with a high pre-snap IQ, a poised post-snap decision-making process and a good-but-not-great arm, mixed with upper-shelf mobility."

That's not bad for a 4th round pick. Is Dak one of those gold-plated, sure-fire, can't-miss franchise QBs taken in the first three or four picks overall? Probably not. And even some of those don't work out.

Is he a QB that a smart, talented developer of QBs could groom into a pretty damn good QB? Very possibly. But we'll never know with the Red-Headed Stepchild at the helm.
 
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