What this basically comes down to is I'm willing to brush off the final 8 games due to the circumstances while you want them to be the defining stretch of Prescott's career to date.
You have the first part right: You are obviously willing to brush it off as nothing.
But I don't think you are understanding what I'm saying. I'm not "defining" Prescott by that. Defining would be using that stretch to say "This is what he is, period." If I was saying the final 8 games was all Prescott could ever be, I would be advocating that he get cut immediately, cause it was garbage.
But that's not what I'm saying, so kindly stop insinuating that I'm using those 8 games to "define," him.
It boils down to this: His first season was good, very good, in fact, in some areas even great. However, certain posters, Geng and I included, both said about Prescott that he needed to improve significantly after his rookie year, to take the leap to elite QB (or even to reach Romo's level, near-elite). His 23:4 TD:INT ratio was great. His completion percentage was great. His 13-3 record was great. But the offense was so good because of the running game, not because Prescott was Romo-ing the offense all over the field.
For Prescott to take that next step, which would REALLY make the offense unstoppable, would require that he become at least CLOSE to Romo's ability to produce 260-270-280 yards per game. Because when you have that ability, PLUS a running game, you get the 2014 Cowboys, every year.
Instead, Prescott gave us more of the same for 8 games (good not great play), and then backslid to pretty bad play.
So I'm not "defining" him based on that 8 games. I'm saying even his first 24 games leave us with a QB that needs to improve. And the last 8 games cast at least some doubt on whether he will do that.
He struggled over the last 8 games under very difficult circumstances, perhaps impossible circumstances for any QB unless they are a veteran, potential HOF type. Average at best OL, average at best running game, no team speed on offense, an inconsistent number 1 WR, a putrid defense unless Lee was on the field, and most importantly, a coaching staff unwilling or unable to adjust their play-calling.
Let's not get carried away. He struggled and there were lots of factors working against him. But his last 8 games averaged 188 ypg. That's basically not starter caliber play, period, even without your starting RB and LT. And you already admitted, as is the truth, that he personally played poorly.
That being said, I'm not saying "He needs to be replaced because he played poorly for 8 games down the stretch." I'm saying, he is APPROACHING a very hot seat, because even his first year was not good enough for him to continue to give us that production (it was just fine for a rookie). He needed to improve his second year, and not only did he NOT improve (he didn't even improve in his first 8 games, really), but he actually got worse in his last 8 games, which shows trend.
Even if he bounces back to the level of his first 8 games of 2017, he needs to improve on that to take the leap to top tier QB.
2017 Wentz: 33:9 total TD's:turnovers, 7.5 YPA, 60.2% completion, 253 YPG
2017 Goff: 29:8 total TD's:turnovers, 8.0 YPA, 62.1% completion, 253 YPG
2017 Prescott - 1st 8 Games Extrapolated over 16: 40 total TD's:8 turnovers, 7.0 YPA, 62.9% completion, 227 YPG
2016 Prescott: 29:4 total TD's:turnovers, 8 YPA, 67.8% completion, but he only averaged 229 YPG and had "perfect" circumstances so this doesn't really count.
So what am I supposed to believe here?
What do you mean "what are you supposed to believe?" It's right in front of you. Goff, 250 ypg, Wentz, 250 ypg, Prescott, 225 ypg.
It's a big difference. It's the same difference from Prescott to Goff in YPG as from Prescott to Quincy Carter, that's what you seem to be missing. You act like that 25 ypg is no big deal. Wrong, it's a tremendous deal.
On top of that, you continue to compile his first two years stats as if that was relevant.
We are projecting development here. Starting out hot and then cooling off isn't as good as starting off slow but then heating up. If you are given those two options, you choose the player who is heating up, not cooling off. So trying to pass these numbers off as "equal" is misleading. Prescott's declining statistics, or even if we throw out his last 8 games, his not improving statistics, is NOT as impressive as Goff and Wentz each having more pedestrian rookie years but then passing 250 ypg their sophomore years.
And again, none of this is to say Prescott can't break through that threshold this season.
But I'm drawing a line in the sand, that I am NOT gonna sit here and pretend everything about Prescott is fine if he puts up 225 ypg again this season. No, he NEEDS to improve up to about 240-250 ypg. As Goff and Wentz have already done.
That despite the fact that Prescott is damn near identical statistically over 24 games
Again, irrelevant. Why would I give a shit what Goff and Wentz did their rookie years? Rookies are traditionally not factors.
Prescott excelled his rookie year, for a rookie, but when he failed to improve to the level he needed to get to in his sophomore year, but Goff and Wentz did improve and surpass him, then their struggles as rookies were completely irrelevant to the discussion, and thus a statistical measurement of their first years is also irrelevant. They've surpassed their first years in terms of performance, so those first years are simply skewed statistical samples at this point, if you are trying to predict future performance. I'm sure you'd agree it's not particularly likely that Goff goes 0-7 with 5 TDs and 7 INTs ever again. If you agree with that, then why would adding those numbers into a two year compilation to compare to Prescott have any bearing whatsoever? Those numbers were not the true Jared Goff. He has already surpassed that ability.
Conversely, a backsliding player MIGHT be the true projection of that player, because what he's currently doing is what he currently is.
But even if it's not, you can compare Prescott's first 8 games of 2017, and throw out the last 8 and call it "extenuating circumstances," and it still leaves something to be desired compared to Goff and Wentz. He simply doesn't move the ball through the air at the same clip as they do. He's more on par with Russell Wilson's development than the development of the true top tier QBs.
to Wentz/Goff he's really on the brink of being replaced while the other two are on the brink of "elite QB" status because of 8 games where the entire offense fell apart and because Wentz/Goff averaged about 25 more YPG passing?
It's inane.
Prescott is only on the brink of being replaced if he does not increase his ypg output.
If he turns into a 240-250 ypg QB, even while Wentz and Goff likely ascend to 260-270 ypg QBs this year, that will be enough to keep his job as long as he doesn't backslide in some other area.
If Prescott sticks at 220-230 ypg, he will not get a contract extension here. He won't win enough. It's not possible in today's NFL to sustain a consistent winning team at 220 ypg passing.