Is a difference in 20 yards passing per game really significant to you when the TD stats are still there?
When taken in conjunction with the low ypa, yes. And again, it's not like the 225-230 is anything to write home about.
TD stats are great, but at the end of the day, the elite offenses of the world rely on the pass to move up and down the field. The elite QBs do this, and that's why their offenses are always unstoppable and elite, and thus why their teams are always elite. Heck, the best QBs average 270-300 ypg.
This isn't Aikman 1992 era NFL football. Passing for 200 ypg and 15-20 TDs isn't an indication that your team is simply run heavy.
I was off the Kaepernick bandwagon waaaaaay out in front of everyone else, even when he was in the Super Bowl that year, I was like, "that QB is no good." The telling sign to me was that I never got the sense that he was proficient at moving the ball in the air. He'd make plays with his legs, his run game was good, his defense gave him the ball in good spots, and he was opportunistic, at the time -- but my eyes were backed up when I checked his stats and saw he was averaging 191 yards passing per game. Quincy Carter was the same. Remember how fucking awful our offense was? The days when we just couldn't do anything? Even in 2003, when he was simply bad and not awful. Right about 200 ypg.
200 ypg is the mark of a QB who is struggling to move the ball in the air. It's a dead giveaway.
Yes, Elliott was out. That should mean more passing attempts, though, but then more incompletes and more interceptions, less efficiency, but still more yards, because we should have been relying on him to pick up Elliott's slack. The fact that he dropped 20 ypg from an already unimpressive number his rookie year is EXTREMELY concerning. It means he was not able to fill the void when called upon to be the prime mover of the ball.
Does bad coaching explain this? Partially. But most good second year QBs are gonna be able to start filling up the stat sheet. Even Roethlisberger, who as you said, only averaged like 200 ypg his sophomore year, well, he averaged an ungodly 9 ypa. That's insane. That means he didn't pass much, but when he did, he was REALLY moving the ball in large chunks.
Prescott was not doing that, he had neither high totals nor high averages.
There is just nothing to suggest this guy is on pace to be an elite QB right now. For all the bitching about Garrett, Garrett fucking knew how to get 270 yards per game out of Romo, didn't he? So if he knew that, and Prescott was capable of it, why isn't he getting it out of Prescott?
Maybe, just maybe, Prescott is missing something.
Again, I think Prescott can be good. Maybe very good. His efficiency was excellent his first year and when things get back to normal (as in the first half of the season before Elliott was suspended) he may be solid, as he was early 2017. But even then, again, 230 ypg? Not good enough.
Try getting up to 250 like Romo in 2014. That, when paired with a top rushing attack, becomes lethal.
When it sinks to 207 yards per game, that's stagnant. Awful. Replacement level.
And again, Garrett isn't THAT bad. He knows how to pass the ball. There were factors working against Prescott, but if he had it in him, he'd be amassing more yards.
He doesn't look like a Brees or Rivers or Romo at this point. He's more like Flacco or Wilson.... and he still has lots of growing to get there.
At this point, it's not a 0% chance that he devolves into Kaepernick. A guy that the league figures out can't chuck the ball around.
Prescott was right around 225-230 per game before Elliott went out, and for some reason you seem to be arguing that without Elliott, and a generally average at best OL without Tyron, that Prescott should have improved on his stats?
He should have increased his yardage totals, yes.
Obviously Prescott's play over the last 8 games was bad
Yes, exactly.
HIS play was bad. This is reflected by his 207 yards per game passing.
I'm not saying that's his end destination. But as of this point, nothing has convinced me he's more than 230 ypg Dak Prescott either.
Which can still be a good QB.
But come on. When Goff can throw more TDs, less interceptions, and WAAAAAY more yards, all while maintaining a way superior QB rating and QBR, with similar mediocre receivers.... that is NOT explained all by coaching.
There is way more than a "negligible" difference between the two.
To assume that those 8 games define Prescott to this point and that the previous 24 were just some magical run based on perfect circumstances (they weren't, especially over the first 8 of 2017) is ridiculous.
I'm not saying those 8 games define him.
I'm saying even "good" Prescott that we've seen, again, if you read my previous post, I said,
"His rookie year was highly effective due to efficiency, but there were times, and this complaint was voiced on this board, that he did not appear to have the ability to put up offense-carrying volume, as even his rookie year when he was "great" by all accounts, he only averaged 229 ypg."
This was a concern to some of us already. He did not really improve on it even in early 2017. Then his 8 game skid came, in a period of time that an improving, ascending all star QB would have taken on more of the load and carried the team to, at the very least, more yardage production, even if his overall efficiency went down because of increased usage and teams keying in on the passing game.
But that didn't happen. Everything was down.
It's very concerning. And does not indicate a player who is about to become a superstar.
Because, simply put, to be a superstar QB who is capable of carrying his team to the playoffs in good times and bad, he's gonna have to become a 250+ ypg QB.
And he's not shown signs of that. Yet.
