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  • Pass rates on first down

    Check this out. This perfectly illustrates just how predictable our offense was last year. I wish I could hang this shit in Garrett's office as a daily reminder.

    2016 DCC LOTY Fantasy Football Champion

  • #2
    At least you can't say he's pass happy anymore.

    I do agree with this. We run on first down way too often. I get that they are trying to establish an identity, but it's way too much. And think of how much more successful the run would be if we didn't run it on first down all the time, and the defense wasn't expecting it?

    That being said, these were the stats and yet people continued to bitch the last two seasons we weren't running enough whenever it was first or second down. Texas Ace was one of the worst offenders of this cherry picking.

    We run the ball plenty. Complaining about "WHY DIDN'T WE RUN IT THERE" is now just second guessing with the benefit of hindsight, almost exclusively.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by mschmidt64 View Post
      At least you can't say he's pass happy anymore.

      I do agree with this. We run on first down way too often. I get that they are trying to establish an identity, but it's way too much. And think of how much more successful the run would be if we didn't run it on first down all the time, and the defense wasn't expecting it?

      That being said, these were the stats and yet people continued to bitch the last two seasons we weren't running enough whenever it was first or second down. Texas Ace was one of the worst offenders of this cherry picking.

      We run the ball plenty. Complaining about "WHY DIDN'T WE RUN IT THERE" is now just second guessing with the benefit of hindsight, almost exclusively.
      How many times has the play sequence gone: run for 4, run for 4, pass with 2 yards to go? It's infuriating and extremely predictable? They will have to fix that shit or we are in for another frustrating year.
      2016 DCC LOTY Fantasy Football Champion

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Iamtdg View Post
        How many times has the play sequence gone: run for 4, run for 4, pass with 2 yards to go? It's infuriating and extremely predictable? They will have to fix that shit or we are in for another frustrating year.
        I agree. And last year it trended down to "Run for 3" or "Run for 2" a little more than we'd like as well.

        Fact is, we need to be more pass happy, period.

        Of course, that's gonna mean throwing on some "obvious" run downs here or there. You can't complain when we don't run on a third and 2 then, occasionally. There has to be some leeway for calls that go against obvious situations. And then when they motion Zeke out wide and it's empty backfield before the snap, that's within the playcaller's prerogative.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by mschmidt64 View Post
          At least you can't say he's pass happy anymore.

          I do agree with this. We run on first down way too often. I get that they are trying to establish an identity, but it's way too much. And think of how much more successful the run would be if we didn't run it on first down all the time, and the defense wasn't expecting it?

          That being said, these were the stats and yet people continued to bitch the last two seasons we weren't running enough whenever it was first or second down. Texas Ace was one of the worst offenders of this cherry picking.
          Yeah people will bitch any time a play doesn't work though. I mean if we run for a first down and then pass on the next play everyone bitches that we don't stick with what works and that we are getting too cute. It's sort of a feel thing. And I get why they love running on first down with Zeke all the time. You almost always get 3 or 4 yards on first down. Especially in 2016 which is what sets up the nice second and third downs of 6 or shorter which makes it easier on Dak. I'd be curious to see our run rates on third down because I kind of feel like we lean pass way too often on third down when it's third and less than 4.

          I also think teams study these tendencies. So while it worked great in 2016 teams realize how heavily we lean towards run on first down and they adjust. Which is why in 2017 it didn't work nearly as well. We need to get back to more of a balanced attack on every down. Heck on first down just do some easy 5 or 6 yard passing stuff. You don't even have to take shots down field. Just get the ball into some of your great athletes hands and let them make a play. That short pass might turn into a big play.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Cowboysrock55 View Post
            Yeah people will bitch any time a play doesn't work though. I mean if we run for a first down and then pass on the next play everyone bitches that we don't stick with what works and that we are getting too cute.
            That's literally about 70% of the problems I have with the Garrett complaints, and why I always seem like I'm sticking up for him. Most of my objections are from that.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Cowboysrock55 View Post
              Yeah people will bitch any time a play doesn't work though. I mean if we run for a first down and then pass on the next play everyone bitches that we don't stick with what works and that we are getting too cute. It's sort of a feel thing. And I get why they love running on first down with Zeke all the time. You almost always get 3 or 4 yards on first down. Especially in 2016 which is what sets up the nice second and third downs of 6 or shorter which makes it easier on Dak. I'd be curious to see our run rates on third down because I kind of feel like we lean pass way too often on third down when it's third and less than 4.

              I also think teams study these tendencies. So while it worked great in 2016 teams realize how heavily we lean towards run on first down and they adjust. Which is why in 2017 it didn't work nearly as well. We need to get back to more of a balanced attack on every down. Heck on first down just do some easy 5 or 6 yard passing stuff. You don't even have to take shots down field. Just get the ball into some of your great athletes hands and let them make a play. That short pass might turn into a big play.
              Give me a few and I think I can get you this stat. Pro Football Reference's website is having issues right now.
              2016 DCC LOTY Fantasy Football Champion

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              • #8
                I'd be curious to know the entire's league's pass rate on third and four or less, compared to ours.

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                • #9
                  To be fair, third and four is really pretty uniformly a passing down.

                  Can you look at third and three or less for us and the league?

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by mschmidt64 View Post
                    To be fair, third and four is really pretty uniformly a passing down.

                    Can you look at third and three or less for us and the league?
                    Yeah, hold on a sec. I have been selecting yards gained instead of yards to go. Let me fix it and this thread.
                    2016 DCC LOTY Fantasy Football Champion

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by mschmidt64 View Post
                      To be fair, third and four is really pretty uniformly a passing down.

                      Can you look at third and three or less for us and the league?
                      This is 3rd and 3 or less to go. Surprisingly, we are around middle of the pack. We throw about half the time on those scenarios.

                      2016 DCC LOTY Fantasy Football Champion

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                      • #12
                        We passed the ball on 3rd and 2 or less 36.1% of the time compared to 45.9% for the league. It sure seems like we pass more than that on 3rd and short. Maybe it's because the goalline efforts where we throw the ball 2-3 times straight really stand out.
                        2016 DCC LOTY Fantasy Football Champion

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Iamtdg View Post
                          This is 3rd and 3 or less to go. Surprisingly, we are around middle of the pack. We throw about half the time on those scenarios.

                          It actually looks like we are really successful in that situation if I'm reading it right.

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                          • #14
                            On 3rd downs regardless of yards to go we are right about league average for passing with 78.4%.
                            2016 DCC LOTY Fantasy Football Champion

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Iamtdg View Post
                              We passed the ball on 3rd and 2 or less 36.1% of the time compared to 45.9% for the league. It sure seems like we pass more than that on 3rd and short. Maybe it's because the goalline efforts where we throw the ball 2-3 times straight really stand out.
                              Yeah it just tells you how pass happy the rest of the NFL has become.

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