Sturm: Pondering The Present And Future Of Jason Witten

[Cowboysrock55]

No, this chart does not prove any of that.

So what do you think it means when a guy can't do much more than fall down after catching the ball. A number that is far below his career rate? You think that has nothing to do with Witten? You really argue just to argue.

 

[Smitty]

So what do you think it means when a guy can't do much more than fall down after catching the ball. A number that is far below his career rate? You think that has nothing to do with Witten? You really argue just to argue.

I think it means this:

http://www.dallascowboyscentral.com/showthread.php?7275-Sturm-Pondering-The-Present-And-Future-Of-Jason-Witten&p=416778&viewfull=1#post416778

 

[Cowboysrock55]

I think it means this:

http://www.dallascowboyscentral.com/showthread.php?7275-Sturm-Pondering-The-Present-And-Future-Of-Jason-Witten&p=416778&viewfull=1#post416778

You do realize his YAC is way lower than it's been his entire career right? You can't just brush that off with a statement that he's always been bad at running after the catch. Because he has never been this bad. Not even close really.

 

[Smitty]

You do realize his YAC is way lower than it's been his entire career right? You can't just brush that off with a statement that he's always been bad at running after the catch. Because he has never been this bad. Not even close really.

And you also can't brush off the QB change when these struggles obviously coincide with it, and that he did in fact get downfield occasionally still.

It seems extremely unlikely to me that the two have zero to do with each other. I am not saying to what extent is which, but I think it's wrong to brush it off, as Sturm did (and as you are doing) as negligible.

That's more like apologizing for Dak's clear weaknesses. I think any accurate analysis of this issue has to look at Dak's targets of Witten in that downfield range as opposed to previous seasons with different QBs.

 

[Cotton]

You do realize his YAC is way lower than it's been his entire career right? You can't just brush that off with a statement that he's always been bad at running after the catch. Because he has never been this bad. Not even close really.

The 3 most used words at the DCC.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

And you also can't brush off the QB change when these struggles obviously coincide with it, and that he did in fact get downfield occasionally still.

It seems extremely unlikely to me that the two have zero to do with each other. I am not saying to what extent is which, but I think it's wrong to brush it off, as Sturm did (and as you are doing) as negligible.

Um see 2016, Wittens YAC was twice as good. He had just as many 20+ yard receptions as many other seasons in his career. And who was Wittens QB that season?

But I know, it doesn't fit your agenda that everything is Daks fault. Must be that 36 fucking year old TEs are game breakers because that can somehow justify your dislike of Dak.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

And you also can't brush off the QB change when these struggles obviously coincide with it, and that he did in fact get downfield occasionally still.

It seems extremely unlikely to me that the two have zero to do with each other. I am not saying to what extent is which, but I think it's wrong to brush it off, as Sturm did (and as you are doing) as negligible.

Um see 2016, Wittens YAC was twice as good. He had just as many 20+ yard receptions as many other seasons in his career. And who was Wittens QB that season?

But I know, it doesn't fit your agenda that everything is Daks fault. Must be that 36 fucking year old TEs are game breakers because that can somehow justify your dislike of Dak.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

1.6 yards after catch average. Hell Witten could get that falling down. I'm not even sure how that embarrassing statistic is someone else's fault besides Witten.

 

[Smitty]

Um see 2016, Wittens YAC was twice as good. He had just as many 20+ yard receptions as many other seasons in his career. And who was Wittens QB that season?

But I know, it doesn't fit your agenda that everything is Daks fault. Must be that 36 fucking year old TEs are game breakers because that can somehow justify your dislike of Dak.

Dak was much better that season and regressed this season.

And when have I ever been someone who says "everything is Dak's fault"? I like Dak.

I just don't think he's teflon or a proven franchise QB yet.

 

[Smitty]

1.6 yards after catch average. Hell Witten could get that falling down. I'm not even sure how that embarrassing statistic is someone else's fault besides Witten.

That's not the stat we are talking about, dummy. No one is blaming Witten's YAC on Dak.

We're talking about downfield targets. The two are different and NOT ENTIRELY RELATED.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

That's not the stat we are talking about, dummy. No one is blaming Witten's YAC on Dak.

We're talking about downfield targets. The two are different and NOT ENTIRELY RELATED.

So why did Dak stop throwing to him deep in 2017 then? Because 2016 was right in line with muiltiple seasons in Wittens career?

And no, we all have been talking about those YAC numbers. Because those have almost nothing to do with Dak. It's why that is a more telling statistic. Deep targets have to do with coaching, QB decisions and ability to get open. It's nearly impossible to draw causation by simply looking at those numbers.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

Dak was much better that season and regressed this season.

And when have I ever been someone who says "everything is Dak's fault"? I like Dak.

I just don't think he's teflon or a proven franchise QB yet.

So what exactly is your point then? Are you claiming Witten hasn't regressed? Because if your answer is just that we need to throw more deep balls to Witten I'm wondering why the solution to our lack of deep balls would be to throw more deep balls to the guy who is literally the slowest player on our offense outside of the O-lineman.

To complete a deep throw to Witten now takes an absolutely perfectly thrown ball most of the time. Why would you want to put the QB in a position where his TE has no separation 25 yards down the field and you have to be pinpoint perfect to have any chance? I don't think that you'd want any QB being forced into that situation. And if you're throwing short to a guy you'd obviously want them to be able to get more than 1.6 yards after because that is also counter productive.

 

[Smitty]

So what exactly is your point then?

http://www.dallascowboyscentral.com/showthread.php?7275-Sturm-Pondering-The-Present-And-Future-Of-Jason-Witten&p=416662&viewfull=1#post416662

Oh, touching on another point in the article.... I'm not so sure, however, that we should just dismiss without examination, as Sturm does here, the effect that transitioning from Romo to Prescott has had. Prescott doesn't throw down field. So uh.... yeah... of course Witten's down field targets are going to shrivel up. Yes, some of that is Witten's fault. But I bet a not unsubstantial amount is Dak's.

Are you claiming Witten hasn't regressed?

No.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

http://www.dallascowboyscentral.com/showthread.php?7275-Sturm-Pondering-The-Present-And-Future-Of-Jason-Witten&p=416662&viewfull=1#post416662

Oh, touching on another point in the article.... I'm not so sure, however, that we should just dismiss without examination, as Sturm does here, the effect that transitioning from Romo to Prescott has had. Prescott doesn't throw down field. So uh.... yeah... of course Witten's down field targets are going to shrivel up. Yes, some of that is Witten's fault. But I bet a not unsubstantial amount is Dak's.

Dak threw downfield in 2016. I don't want to turn it into a Dak discussion but I do wonder what changed with Dak from 2016 to 2017 in that area.

 

[ravidubey]

Dak was much better that season and regressed this season.

And when have I ever been someone who says "everything is Dak's fault"? I like Dak.

I just don't think he's teflon or a proven franchise QB yet.

The Dak Cult does not allow his holiness to be questioned.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

The Dak Cult does not allow his holiness to be questioned.

More like every discussion about anyone on offense besides Dak somehow turns into a discussion about how it's all Dak's fault by some.

Like some just can't see that there are other problems going on. I mean, you can see how this is an article about Witten right?

 

[Genghis Khan]

From what I can tell, Witten's 3 or 4 average YAC throughout his career was never good. 1 is brutally bad for that category relatively speaking, but falling to 1 is not significant, particularly given that's never ever been an important part of Witten's game.

And I'd argue YAC for a TE is not a particularly important stat in general.

You know who historically has had a poor YAC? Zach Ertz. In 2016 for instance, Ertz was ranked 241st (!) in YAC. Anyone want to argue that Ertz isn't an effective TE? Perhaps Ertz is showing signs of age at 23 (or whatever he was in 2016)?

Or maybe, just maybe, this YAC derailment is a red herring that has distracted the discussion from the actual point, which is: why did Witten's (and Dez's) numbers dip noticably when they lost Romo?

 

[ravidubey]

It’s simple. Dak got perfect protection from his OL and RB in 2016.

That couldn’t and wouldn’t be sustained.

Dak in his second year could not be the QB we needed him to be.

You can claim that everyone except Brice Butler declined around him simultaneously, or you can accept that the one player most responsible for the offenses success is most responsible for its relative failure.

I say relative because it wasn’t a total disaster, but it wasn’t very good either.

 

[Cowboysrock55]

From what I can tell, Witten's 3 or 4 average YAC throughout his career was never good. 1 is brutally bad for that category relatively speaking, but falling to 1 is not significant, particularly given that's never ever been an important part of Witten's game.

And I'd argue YAC for a TE is not a particularly important stat in general.

You know who historically has had a poor YAC? Zach Ertz. In 2016 for instance, Ertz was ranked 241st (!) in YAC. Anyone want to argue that Ertz isn't an effective TE? Perhaps Ertz is showing signs of age at 23 (or whatever he was in 2016)?

Or maybe, just maybe, this YAC derailment is a red herring that has distracted the discussion from the actual point, which is: why did Witten's (and Dez's) numbers dip noticably when they lost Romo?

Ertz YAC was 3.5 per reception in 2016. That's a far stretch from 1.6.

 

[GShock]

Dak threw downfield in 2016. I don't want to turn it into a Dak discussion but I do wonder what changed with Dak from 2016 to 2017 in that area.

He got Hutchinsoned vs Atlanta and never recovered. Pressured on nearly 30% of his dropbacks (12th highest in the league), with a crumbling left side of his line, zero reliable deep threats, and a WR who threw bigger and bigger tantrums if he wasn't forced the ball on every series.