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By Sheil Kapadia 2h ago
Last month, trusted colleague Bob Sturm put Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz under the microscope, offering his take on Wentz’s strengths and weaknesses going into his fourth season.
A fresh set of eyes is often useful. So I thought I’d return the favor, dive into some Dak Prescott film, sort through the numbers and offer my take on what the Cowboys have in their quarterback. Wentz received his long-term extension this offseason. And at some point, the Cowboys will likely have to pay in the neighborhood of $30 million per year to keep Prescott.
Keeping that in mind, let’s take a look at what Prescott has shown in his first three seasons, and project what he might become in the years ahead. Numbers are courtesy of SportRadar unless otherwise noted. [h=3]Accuracy[/h]
This is the most important trait NFL quarterbacks need to be successful, and Prescott has it. Since entering the league, he’s completed 66.1 percent of his passes, which ranks ninth league-wide among qualifying quarterbacks. “But Sheil, he never throws downfield. Of course he’s going to have a high completion percentage!” We’ll get to that in the next section, but even when looking at some advanced metrics beyond traditional completion percentage, Prescott still stacks up favorably in terms of accuracy.
NFL’s Next Gen Stats provide additional context with a metric called completion percentage above expectation. It looks at the probability of a completion on every throw, based on multiple factors such as a receiver’s separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, how close the nearest pass rusher is to the quarterback, etc. Last year, Prescott posted a +2.1 in this category, which ranked 12th. He ranked ninth in 2017 and third as a rookie. It’s fair to point out he’s not trending in the right direction, but in each of Prescott’s first three seasons, he’s been above average in terms of accuracy. [h=3]Aggressiveness[/h]
Both observationally and analytically, this is the biggest area of difference between Wentz and Prescott. Wentz, when at his best, feels like there’s no throw he can’t make. Prescott, whether because of his own preferences or because of how he’s being coached, consistently plays with a cautious approach. Aggressiveness boils down to two different categories: A willingness to throw into tight windows and a willingness to pull the trigger on downfield throws rather than take checkdowns.
Next Gen Stats gauges aggressiveness by measuring the percentage of throws a quarterback makes into windows when there is a defender within 1 yard of the receiver. Last year, 17.7 percent of Prescott’s attempts were into tight windows. That ranked 10th in the NFL. He ranked 13th in both 2017 and 2016. But it’s important to remember this is an imperfect stat. It can be good to have a low aggressiveness percentage. It means the quarterback is throwing to open receivers, and that can speak to the scheme working and pass-catchers winning their one-on-one battles.
Patrick Mahomes, for example, ranked 36th in aggressiveness last year, and the Chiefs had the most efficient passing game in the NFL. In the Cowboys’ case, because of scheme and personnel, guys are not consistently open. I would argue that’s why Prescott has an above-average aggressiveness number.
The most troubling aspect of Prescott’s game is the lack of production downfield. Last season, only 10.27 percent of Prescott’s pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more downfield. That ranked 27th among qualifying quarterbacks. As an offense, the Cowboys produced a gain of 20-plus yards on just 6.69 percent of their passing plays. That ranked 31st in the NFL, ahead of only the Cardinals.
So were those numbers a function of the quarterback or the coaching and scheme? The answer is probably both.
The Cowboys have a very specific way in which they want to play. Their offense averaged 3:07 time of possession per drive last season, which ranked second. And they were third in plays per drive. Dallas believes in methodically moving the chains and relying on its run game and defense. There have been very few big-play or quick-strike elements to this offense. So in some ways, Prescott has been playing how he’s been coached to play. Maybe new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will emphasize the need for explosive plays in the passing game or coach Prescott to be more aggressive.
On the other hand, there’s not a lot of evidence to suggest that’s Prescott’s strength. He’s completed 36.0 percent of his downfield attempts in three seasons, which ranks 22nd. Granted, he hasn’t exactly been playing with Randy Moss split out wide. But on film, there are examples of Prescott missing on downfield throws when receivers are open or being unwilling to go downfield even when there are opportunities.
This is an area of Prescott’s game worth monitoring this year. He will have Amari Cooper for the full season and a new coordinator implementing schematic changes. Will the offense continue to lack an explosive element, or can Prescott make strides in this area?
[h=3]Decision-making[/h]
This, along with accuracy, is the reason why Prescott has had success through three seasons. His 1.7 percent interception rate ranks 10th over the past three seasons. Prescott does a very good job of taking care of the football — he’s not someone who’s going to lose the game for you. Again, there is a give and take here. Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense as a whole have been conservative. That means a lack of explosive plays but also helps keep turnover numbers down.
The other area to keep an eye on with Prescott is sacks. Last season, with the Cowboys’ offensive line not as good as when he was a rookie, Prescott was sacked on 9.6 percent of his dropbacks, which was sixth-worst among starters. What’s most interesting here is how defenses were able to sack Prescott. On plays when opponents didn’t blitz (rushed four or fewer), they sacked Prescott 10.9 percent of the time, which was the highest mark for any quarterback in the league. When they did blitz, they sacked Prescott 6.5 percent of the time (eighth lowest).
The numbers provide a pretty clear blueprint for how to defend the Cowboys’ passing game. Last year, opponents were best served to play coverage and rush four. Prescott does not want to make mistakes and is not an aggressive passer, which can lead to him holding onto the ball. Combine that with the team’s issues in protection, and defenses were often able to kill drives with sacks.
There’s a domino effect here, too. The Cowboys are not built to overcome mistakes on offense. Sturm found they scored on just 28.3 percent of the drivesin which they had a penalty, sack or tackle for loss. That ranked 26th in the NFL. That’s obviously not all on Prescott, but the Cowboys have to produce more clean drives and overcome mistakes better than they did in 2018, when their offense ranked 24th in overall efficiency. [h=3]Situational football[/h]
One glaring issue for the Cowboys last season was red-zone efficiency. They produced touchdowns on just 48 percent of their red-zone drives, which ranked 29th. And Prescott was part of the problem; 17.1 percent of his passes in the red zone resulted in touchdowns (30th in the NFL). This is another trend that has been going in the wrong direction. Prescott ranked sixth as a rookie and 12th in 2017.
And then there’s third down. Prescott’s passes have resulted in first downs 36.9 percent of the time over his three seasons, which ranks 17th. Last year, he was 23rd (34.9 percent).
Once again, part of this comes down to the Cowboys’ identity and how they want to play. Third-and-long (defined here as 7 yards or more), for example, has been a disaster for Prescott. Just 24.2 percent of his attempts in those spots have resulted in a first down, which ranks 29th over the past three seasons. On film, it’s clear that the coaches didn’t trust Prescott last year to make a play in these situations. They often called screens or quick-hitting completions that required the receiver to try and gain a first down after the catch. On average (overall, not just on third-and-long), Prescott’s passes were 1.5 yards short of the first-down marker. That ranked 29th among qualifying quarterbacks.
Aggressive offenses don’t have to worry about phrases like “staying on schedule” and “third and manageable.” They can find creative ways to get out of challenging situations. But that’s not the Cowboys’ identity. The way they play, they have to be really good on third down to be effective. That wasn’t the case last season.
[h=3]The Amari Cooper effect[/h]
There’s no doubt that Prescott’s numbers jumped after the Cowboys traded for Cooper. From Week 9 on, he completed 71.3 percent of his passes and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. But Cooper’s presence didn’t change the Cowboys’ offensive approach or mask all of their issues.
Prescott’s sack percentage (9.3) was still a problem, and he averaged 6.4 yards per pass play, which ranked 17th.
Even with Cooper, Prescott didn’t throw downfield much. Just 10.6 percent of his attempts traveled 20 yards or more. To put the number into perspective, that would’ve ranked 25th over the course of a full season. And with Cooper, just 6.5 percent of the Cowboys’ pass plays resulted in explosive plays. That was actually lower than without Cooper in Weeks 1 through 8 (6.9 percent) and would’ve ranked 31st over the course of a full season.
Cooper’s presence didn’t give the Cowboys an explosive element and it didn’t give them much in the red zone. Prescott still saw just 17.1 percent of his red-zone attempts result in touchdowns, which ranked 30th over the second half of the season. [h=3]Final thoughts[/h]
Prescott has a lot of things going for him. He’s accurate, durable (has never missed a game) and doesn’t turn the ball over. He also does an excellent job of using his legs. Prescott’s 75 rushing first downs trail only Cam Newton over the past three seasons. It’ll be worth keeping an eye on whether Moore incorporates more designed runs for Prescott, which could really benefit the offense — specifically in the red zone.
When watching film on Prescott, the player he most reminded me of stylistically was Alex Smith. Then I looked at the numbers for each guy over the past three seasons.
Comp. % YPA Net/pass TD-INT
Of course, it’s far from a perfect comparison. Smith spent two of the past three seasons playing for an innovative offensive coach in Andy Reid and had better weapons in the passing game. Prescott has played in a run-first scheme that has limited what he’s asked to do. Smith was 32, 33 and 34 when he posted the above numbers. Prescott was 23, 24 and 25. There’s obviously more room for growth and development.
We won’t know what changes Moore plans to bring to the offense until the games start, but if the Cowboys want to continue to play the way they’ve been playing, Prescott is a fine fit. He can complete a high percentage of his passes in the intermediate part of the field, help the Cowboys string together methodical drives, and he won’t kill them with turnovers. The offense ranked 10th in efficiency in 2017 and third in 2016.
But the divisional-round loss to the Rams last season was instructive. Wade Phillips dared the Cowboys to put the game on Prescott’s shoulders by loading the box and staying in base defense against 11 personnel. Dallas decided rather than adjust to a more pass-heavy attack, it would stay true to its identity. Ezekiel Elliott ran 20 times for 47 yards (2.4 YPC), they got behind early and ended up losing 30-22.
Going forward, will the Cowboys maintain the same philosophy and ask Prescott to execute the offense and avoid mistakes? If they pay him $30 million per year, will that be an indication they believe he can do more? That they will encourage him to be more aggressive so the offense can succeed in different forms rather than just have to play one style?
Those are the questions that the franchise has to answer in the months ahead.
By Sheil Kapadia 2h ago
Last month, trusted colleague Bob Sturm put Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz under the microscope, offering his take on Wentz’s strengths and weaknesses going into his fourth season.
A fresh set of eyes is often useful. So I thought I’d return the favor, dive into some Dak Prescott film, sort through the numbers and offer my take on what the Cowboys have in their quarterback. Wentz received his long-term extension this offseason. And at some point, the Cowboys will likely have to pay in the neighborhood of $30 million per year to keep Prescott.
Keeping that in mind, let’s take a look at what Prescott has shown in his first three seasons, and project what he might become in the years ahead. Numbers are courtesy of SportRadar unless otherwise noted. [h=3]Accuracy[/h]
This is the most important trait NFL quarterbacks need to be successful, and Prescott has it. Since entering the league, he’s completed 66.1 percent of his passes, which ranks ninth league-wide among qualifying quarterbacks. “But Sheil, he never throws downfield. Of course he’s going to have a high completion percentage!” We’ll get to that in the next section, but even when looking at some advanced metrics beyond traditional completion percentage, Prescott still stacks up favorably in terms of accuracy.
NFL’s Next Gen Stats provide additional context with a metric called completion percentage above expectation. It looks at the probability of a completion on every throw, based on multiple factors such as a receiver’s separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, how close the nearest pass rusher is to the quarterback, etc. Last year, Prescott posted a +2.1 in this category, which ranked 12th. He ranked ninth in 2017 and third as a rookie. It’s fair to point out he’s not trending in the right direction, but in each of Prescott’s first three seasons, he’s been above average in terms of accuracy. [h=3]Aggressiveness[/h]
Both observationally and analytically, this is the biggest area of difference between Wentz and Prescott. Wentz, when at his best, feels like there’s no throw he can’t make. Prescott, whether because of his own preferences or because of how he’s being coached, consistently plays with a cautious approach. Aggressiveness boils down to two different categories: A willingness to throw into tight windows and a willingness to pull the trigger on downfield throws rather than take checkdowns.
Next Gen Stats gauges aggressiveness by measuring the percentage of throws a quarterback makes into windows when there is a defender within 1 yard of the receiver. Last year, 17.7 percent of Prescott’s attempts were into tight windows. That ranked 10th in the NFL. He ranked 13th in both 2017 and 2016. But it’s important to remember this is an imperfect stat. It can be good to have a low aggressiveness percentage. It means the quarterback is throwing to open receivers, and that can speak to the scheme working and pass-catchers winning their one-on-one battles.
Patrick Mahomes, for example, ranked 36th in aggressiveness last year, and the Chiefs had the most efficient passing game in the NFL. In the Cowboys’ case, because of scheme and personnel, guys are not consistently open. I would argue that’s why Prescott has an above-average aggressiveness number.
The most troubling aspect of Prescott’s game is the lack of production downfield. Last season, only 10.27 percent of Prescott’s pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more downfield. That ranked 27th among qualifying quarterbacks. As an offense, the Cowboys produced a gain of 20-plus yards on just 6.69 percent of their passing plays. That ranked 31st in the NFL, ahead of only the Cardinals.
So were those numbers a function of the quarterback or the coaching and scheme? The answer is probably both.
The Cowboys have a very specific way in which they want to play. Their offense averaged 3:07 time of possession per drive last season, which ranked second. And they were third in plays per drive. Dallas believes in methodically moving the chains and relying on its run game and defense. There have been very few big-play or quick-strike elements to this offense. So in some ways, Prescott has been playing how he’s been coached to play. Maybe new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will emphasize the need for explosive plays in the passing game or coach Prescott to be more aggressive.
On the other hand, there’s not a lot of evidence to suggest that’s Prescott’s strength. He’s completed 36.0 percent of his downfield attempts in three seasons, which ranks 22nd. Granted, he hasn’t exactly been playing with Randy Moss split out wide. But on film, there are examples of Prescott missing on downfield throws when receivers are open or being unwilling to go downfield even when there are opportunities.
This is an area of Prescott’s game worth monitoring this year. He will have Amari Cooper for the full season and a new coordinator implementing schematic changes. Will the offense continue to lack an explosive element, or can Prescott make strides in this area?
[h=3]Decision-making[/h]
This, along with accuracy, is the reason why Prescott has had success through three seasons. His 1.7 percent interception rate ranks 10th over the past three seasons. Prescott does a very good job of taking care of the football — he’s not someone who’s going to lose the game for you. Again, there is a give and take here. Prescott and the Cowboys’ offense as a whole have been conservative. That means a lack of explosive plays but also helps keep turnover numbers down.
The other area to keep an eye on with Prescott is sacks. Last season, with the Cowboys’ offensive line not as good as when he was a rookie, Prescott was sacked on 9.6 percent of his dropbacks, which was sixth-worst among starters. What’s most interesting here is how defenses were able to sack Prescott. On plays when opponents didn’t blitz (rushed four or fewer), they sacked Prescott 10.9 percent of the time, which was the highest mark for any quarterback in the league. When they did blitz, they sacked Prescott 6.5 percent of the time (eighth lowest).
The numbers provide a pretty clear blueprint for how to defend the Cowboys’ passing game. Last year, opponents were best served to play coverage and rush four. Prescott does not want to make mistakes and is not an aggressive passer, which can lead to him holding onto the ball. Combine that with the team’s issues in protection, and defenses were often able to kill drives with sacks.
There’s a domino effect here, too. The Cowboys are not built to overcome mistakes on offense. Sturm found they scored on just 28.3 percent of the drivesin which they had a penalty, sack or tackle for loss. That ranked 26th in the NFL. That’s obviously not all on Prescott, but the Cowboys have to produce more clean drives and overcome mistakes better than they did in 2018, when their offense ranked 24th in overall efficiency. [h=3]Situational football[/h]
One glaring issue for the Cowboys last season was red-zone efficiency. They produced touchdowns on just 48 percent of their red-zone drives, which ranked 29th. And Prescott was part of the problem; 17.1 percent of his passes in the red zone resulted in touchdowns (30th in the NFL). This is another trend that has been going in the wrong direction. Prescott ranked sixth as a rookie and 12th in 2017.
And then there’s third down. Prescott’s passes have resulted in first downs 36.9 percent of the time over his three seasons, which ranks 17th. Last year, he was 23rd (34.9 percent).
Once again, part of this comes down to the Cowboys’ identity and how they want to play. Third-and-long (defined here as 7 yards or more), for example, has been a disaster for Prescott. Just 24.2 percent of his attempts in those spots have resulted in a first down, which ranks 29th over the past three seasons. On film, it’s clear that the coaches didn’t trust Prescott last year to make a play in these situations. They often called screens or quick-hitting completions that required the receiver to try and gain a first down after the catch. On average (overall, not just on third-and-long), Prescott’s passes were 1.5 yards short of the first-down marker. That ranked 29th among qualifying quarterbacks.
Aggressive offenses don’t have to worry about phrases like “staying on schedule” and “third and manageable.” They can find creative ways to get out of challenging situations. But that’s not the Cowboys’ identity. The way they play, they have to be really good on third down to be effective. That wasn’t the case last season.
[h=3]The Amari Cooper effect[/h]
There’s no doubt that Prescott’s numbers jumped after the Cowboys traded for Cooper. From Week 9 on, he completed 71.3 percent of his passes and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. But Cooper’s presence didn’t change the Cowboys’ offensive approach or mask all of their issues.
Prescott’s sack percentage (9.3) was still a problem, and he averaged 6.4 yards per pass play, which ranked 17th.
Even with Cooper, Prescott didn’t throw downfield much. Just 10.6 percent of his attempts traveled 20 yards or more. To put the number into perspective, that would’ve ranked 25th over the course of a full season. And with Cooper, just 6.5 percent of the Cowboys’ pass plays resulted in explosive plays. That was actually lower than without Cooper in Weeks 1 through 8 (6.9 percent) and would’ve ranked 31st over the course of a full season.
Cooper’s presence didn’t give the Cowboys an explosive element and it didn’t give them much in the red zone. Prescott still saw just 17.1 percent of his red-zone attempts result in touchdowns, which ranked 30th over the second half of the season. [h=3]Final thoughts[/h]
Prescott has a lot of things going for him. He’s accurate, durable (has never missed a game) and doesn’t turn the ball over. He also does an excellent job of using his legs. Prescott’s 75 rushing first downs trail only Cam Newton over the past three seasons. It’ll be worth keeping an eye on whether Moore incorporates more designed runs for Prescott, which could really benefit the offense — specifically in the red zone.
When watching film on Prescott, the player he most reminded me of stylistically was Alex Smith. Then I looked at the numbers for each guy over the past three seasons.
| Dak Prescott | 66.1 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.68 |
| Alex Smith | 66.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.83 |
Of course, it’s far from a perfect comparison. Smith spent two of the past three seasons playing for an innovative offensive coach in Andy Reid and had better weapons in the passing game. Prescott has played in a run-first scheme that has limited what he’s asked to do. Smith was 32, 33 and 34 when he posted the above numbers. Prescott was 23, 24 and 25. There’s obviously more room for growth and development.
We won’t know what changes Moore plans to bring to the offense until the games start, but if the Cowboys want to continue to play the way they’ve been playing, Prescott is a fine fit. He can complete a high percentage of his passes in the intermediate part of the field, help the Cowboys string together methodical drives, and he won’t kill them with turnovers. The offense ranked 10th in efficiency in 2017 and third in 2016.
But the divisional-round loss to the Rams last season was instructive. Wade Phillips dared the Cowboys to put the game on Prescott’s shoulders by loading the box and staying in base defense against 11 personnel. Dallas decided rather than adjust to a more pass-heavy attack, it would stay true to its identity. Ezekiel Elliott ran 20 times for 47 yards (2.4 YPC), they got behind early and ended up losing 30-22.
Going forward, will the Cowboys maintain the same philosophy and ask Prescott to execute the offense and avoid mistakes? If they pay him $30 million per year, will that be an indication they believe he can do more? That they will encourage him to be more aggressive so the offense can succeed in different forms rather than just have to play one style?
Those are the questions that the franchise has to answer in the months ahead.
