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After leading the Cowboys to a 32-16 record in his first three seasons as the starting quarterback, Dak Prescott is due for a big payday.
As he approaches the final year of his rookie contract, the pressure on the Cowboys to offer him an extension grew when NFC East rival Philadelphia gave quarterback Carson Wentz a four-year, $128 million extension of his own.
When speaking with media members in May, Prescott said he wanted "to be a Cowboy forever."
But how much will the Cowboys break the bank to lock down their soon-to-be 26-year-old quarterback?
According to some Pro Football Focus writers, the Cowboys shouldn't be so fast to give Prescott a record-setting deal.
"If it were us, it would be a tough sell to keep Dak for anywhere near the top end of the quarterback market. Prescott was a top-10 player at the position when everything went right in 2016. Some things improved on the surface in 2018, allowing them to reclaim the division title. However, a deeper look shows a .500 team propped up by a pretty good defense and solid support around a profoundly average quarterback," PFF's Eric Eager and George Chahrouri wrote.
"While it would be difficult to cut bait on one of the better stories at the position in recent seasons, it is likely the best decision for the 'Boys to make."
Prescott threw for a career-high 3,885 yards last season and 22 touchdowns. However, those marks ranked 15th and 16th respectively among NFL quarterbacks last season, according to Pro Football Reference.
Pro Football Focus also used numbers of its own to back up the argument that Dallas should consider not giving Prescott an extension.
"In the most predictive aspect of quarterback play, the ability to avoid throws graded negatively by us at PFF, Prescott was 25th among qualifying quarterbacks a season ago," Eager and Chahrouri wrote. "He was an average passer from a clean pocket (18th in PFF grade), despite an average depth of target below 7.5 yards -- a full yard lower than in his rookie season of 2016. All of this led the Dallas signal-caller to earn only the 19th-best wins above replacement among all players at the position in 2018."
However, SportsDay's Jon Machota recently wrote that Prescott has put together his best offseason yet.
From Machota in early June: "If what Dak Prescott has displayed over the last four weeks is any indication of the season he's about to have, the Cowboys quarterback is setting up for a career year. This has been Prescott's best offseason since becoming the franchise's starting quarterback in 2016.
"During the six practices open to reporters, Prescott has been more accurate and decisive while also avoiding turnovers. All great signs for a player entering the final year of his rookie contract, looking for a new long-term deal that would likely make him the highest-paid player in franchise history."
Pro Football Focus also points out that by extending Prescott, it may hurt the Cowboys' ability to bring back a pair of their top defensive contributors.
"[Byron] Jones, [Jaylon] Smith and [Leighton] Vander Esch all cover extremely well, doing the most valuable thing for a defense that is now one of the league's best," Eager and Chahrouri wrote. "Jones and Smith are free agents in 2020, and the choice to extend Dak might lead to the jettisoning of one or both of these defensive stalwarts."
Still, SportsDay's Kevin Sherrington says Prescott's durability is underrated and that he should get an extension in the neighborhood of $30 million per year.
From Sherrington: "Of all the abilities a quarterback may possess, availability is underrated. Dak hasn't missed a game in three years, and it's not like he's been hiding. ... Wentz is 23-17, and his own teammates have raised the question at least once of whether they preferred him or his former backup, Nick Foles. Considering Wentz's case, it's no wonder that Jerry and Stephen Jones have made it clear that Dak's going to get paid, and soon. My guess is it'll be at least $30 million a year."
As he approaches the final year of his rookie contract, the pressure on the Cowboys to offer him an extension grew when NFC East rival Philadelphia gave quarterback Carson Wentz a four-year, $128 million extension of his own.
When speaking with media members in May, Prescott said he wanted "to be a Cowboy forever."
But how much will the Cowboys break the bank to lock down their soon-to-be 26-year-old quarterback?
According to some Pro Football Focus writers, the Cowboys shouldn't be so fast to give Prescott a record-setting deal.
"If it were us, it would be a tough sell to keep Dak for anywhere near the top end of the quarterback market. Prescott was a top-10 player at the position when everything went right in 2016. Some things improved on the surface in 2018, allowing them to reclaim the division title. However, a deeper look shows a .500 team propped up by a pretty good defense and solid support around a profoundly average quarterback," PFF's Eric Eager and George Chahrouri wrote.
"While it would be difficult to cut bait on one of the better stories at the position in recent seasons, it is likely the best decision for the 'Boys to make."
Prescott threw for a career-high 3,885 yards last season and 22 touchdowns. However, those marks ranked 15th and 16th respectively among NFL quarterbacks last season, according to Pro Football Reference.
Pro Football Focus also used numbers of its own to back up the argument that Dallas should consider not giving Prescott an extension.
"In the most predictive aspect of quarterback play, the ability to avoid throws graded negatively by us at PFF, Prescott was 25th among qualifying quarterbacks a season ago," Eager and Chahrouri wrote. "He was an average passer from a clean pocket (18th in PFF grade), despite an average depth of target below 7.5 yards -- a full yard lower than in his rookie season of 2016. All of this led the Dallas signal-caller to earn only the 19th-best wins above replacement among all players at the position in 2018."
However, SportsDay's Jon Machota recently wrote that Prescott has put together his best offseason yet.
From Machota in early June: "If what Dak Prescott has displayed over the last four weeks is any indication of the season he's about to have, the Cowboys quarterback is setting up for a career year. This has been Prescott's best offseason since becoming the franchise's starting quarterback in 2016.
"During the six practices open to reporters, Prescott has been more accurate and decisive while also avoiding turnovers. All great signs for a player entering the final year of his rookie contract, looking for a new long-term deal that would likely make him the highest-paid player in franchise history."
Pro Football Focus also points out that by extending Prescott, it may hurt the Cowboys' ability to bring back a pair of their top defensive contributors.
"[Byron] Jones, [Jaylon] Smith and [Leighton] Vander Esch all cover extremely well, doing the most valuable thing for a defense that is now one of the league's best," Eager and Chahrouri wrote. "Jones and Smith are free agents in 2020, and the choice to extend Dak might lead to the jettisoning of one or both of these defensive stalwarts."
Still, SportsDay's Kevin Sherrington says Prescott's durability is underrated and that he should get an extension in the neighborhood of $30 million per year.
From Sherrington: "Of all the abilities a quarterback may possess, availability is underrated. Dak hasn't missed a game in three years, and it's not like he's been hiding. ... Wentz is 23-17, and his own teammates have raised the question at least once of whether they preferred him or his former backup, Nick Foles. Considering Wentz's case, it's no wonder that Jerry and Stephen Jones have made it clear that Dak's going to get paid, and soon. My guess is it'll be at least $30 million a year."
