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By Bob Sturm 2h ago
There is a window in every offseason, roughly between June 1 and opening day in Oxnard, where I have the liberty to discuss some of the issues of NFL strategy that never get fully hashed out when footballs are flying. In the weeks to come, I want to conclude a big turnover study and take an updated look at the use of personnel groupings in the ever-evolving modern NFL.
Today, though, I want to talk about drive-killers. This is a term I certainly did not coin, although its origin is not very important. What is important is that every coach and most every player knows these things intuitively, but a review and an education for casual observers can really help quantify the extent to which mistakes cripple an offense.
I spent a brief window of time discussing this last winter and put it on my list for the next opportunity to elaborate, so let’s begin.
Last season’s Cowboys were unable to avoid drive-killers. By that, I mean penalties, sacks and negative plays – the sorts of things that grind offenses to a halt. These are different than giveaways, which are the top priority to avoid; since they get all the press, I figure nobody needs to be told to avoid turnovers. Drive-killers, on the other hand, end the momentum of a good drive and generally lead to the punt team taking the field.
I became interested in this years ago when a Fox broadcast showed a graphic about drive scoring percentages and what could lead them to fail. A drive-killer can be a sack, a tackle for loss, or, worse yet, an offensive penalty. The bigger the penalty, the more likely the drive is to die. It is the opposite of “staying on schedule;” it is throwing your schedule into the fire.
According to the good folks at NFLPenalties.com, the Cowboys committed an impressive 31 offensive-holding penalties in 2018. That ranks third-worst in the NFL, trailing only the holding linemen in Indianapolis and Washington by one single flag. I expected that they had committed way more holding penalties in 2018 than in previous years, but apparently I was wrong: there were 28 in 2017 and 30 in 2016. They even committed 27 in 2014, the offensive line’s glory year. 2018 is not an outlier. Apparently, this team holds substantially more often than most, as the league average is a sliver under 23 holds per team. Here is this year’s full Dallas holding list:
Tyron Smith tied for the league lead with seven holding penalties. Connor Williams committed five, with La’el Collins and Joe Looney close behind (four each). This is a massive issue for one big reason: Few teams in the league have killed more drives due to holding penalties than the Cowboys’ 20. Dallas scored on 40% of their drives last season when they did not hold, which exceeded the league average by a reasonable margin (36.2%).
But when they hold, they are well below league-average. On drives with a hold, Dallas drops to 25%. The rest of the league is still up at 39%. Heck, the Chargers have somehow scored on 79% of their drive last season when they committed a hold. That makes no sense, but it is true. That said, Dallas sat right at 25% with a hold, and they shoot to nearly 40% when they avoid a penalty. In fact, their scoring percentage is eighth in the league when they don’t commit that particular penalty.
In short, the Cowboys are a good NFL offense if they take no penalties or don’t allow sacks in a drive. They just have a tough time avoiding those pitfalls.
I tend to argue one point about penalties that I think gets echoed an awful lot. People — especially in the media — claim that penalties are a coaching issue. I probably said it myself once upon a time, but I don’t think holding penalties are an issue of discipline. I think holding penalties are often an issue of a player getting his butt kicked. Guys hold because it is their only way to keep the other dude from collecting another sack. It makes sense to me that a team that held all the time also conceded 56 sacks in 16 games.
There is certainly a distinction to be made on whether the holds came on run or pass plays, because run plays are not always about saving a butt-kicking. Pass protection, though, often falls under that distinction. This is not about discipline. This is about trying to stop a defensive tackle who is stronger than you from throwing you again. You can coach all day, and you won’t make a player stronger. Technique can help, to a point. But beyond that point, the best way to try to beat a clear disadvantage is often to hold on and hope the ref doesn’t see it. I think this can often be true on false starts. You are being beaten by a speed rusher, so you cheat the snap to gain an advantage on the edge.
I have always been of the belief that at the moment of truth for a tackle, if he has a choice to either allow a sack or to take a holding penalty, he should always take the flag. But this doesn’t account for the passer bailing him out with an evasive move in the pocket or getting the ball out a split-second before being sacked. With a tackle not having eyes in the back of his head, it is difficult to assume this decision can ever be made in the heat of the battle. But given a pause button and a choice, it would sure seem that a player would prefer the 10-yard penalty and repeating the down. It’s still a drive-killer, just not as devastating as a sack where you often lose 10 yards and the down. There is generally no returning from that.
Here are the 2018 Cowboys’ numbers relative to the rest of the league, thanks to our friends at Sportradar:
Any holding penalty: Dallas scored on 25% of drives (NFL avg: 39.4%)
Any offensive penalty: Dallas scored on 35.7% of drives (NFL avg: 39.4%)
Any sack allowed: Dallas scored on 25% of drives (NFL avg: 23.8%)
Any tackle for loss allowed: Dallas scored on 39.6% of drives (NFL avg: 32.7%)
Clean Drive (no penalty, TFL, or Sack): Dallas scored on 53% of drives (NFL avg: 43%)
As you can see, that’s a lot of numbers to consume. But the league tells us that scoring is quite difficult on a per-drive basis. If you touch the ball between 10-12 times per game, you would love to score on half of your drives overall.
The numbers above tell us the Cowboys were very poor at surviving any holding penalty, and it pretty much caused them to run on the punt team in nearly every situation. Sacks allowed were no better, but they at least outperformed the league average by a slight margin. Tackles for loss were not as damaging for the Cowboys relative to the league average, but it certainly dropped them well below their “clean drive” number.
We have good news and bad news on that front. The good news is that the Cowboys were among the best teams in the NFL when they kept things clean. Only the Rams, Saints, and Chiefs were better offenses with clean drives, which is some fantastic company to keep. The bad news is that only one team had fewer clean drives than the Cowboys.
Again, this largely points at the offensive line, given the responsibility for most penalties, sacks and tackles for loss will be this offensive line being beaten at the line of scrimmage. I don’t mean to continually belabor this point, but the truth seems pretty undeniable when you look at the evidence: The Dallas offensive was absolutely not very close to elite in 2018.
Allow me to show you the Cowboys’ standing in the clean drive department, compared to every other team:
2018 RANKING OF OFFENSES SCORING % WITH CLEAN DRIVES
Rank Team Scoring drives with no penalties, sacks, or TFL Drives with no penalties, sacks, or TFL %
That’s right; the Dallas Cowboys had the fourth-best offense in the NFL when they cut out the penalties and sacks.
We know about clean drives. I guess that means the list below is made up of unclean drives. Which teams could overcome their problems and mistakes? What team could convert a 1st-and-20 like it is no big deal?
2018 RANKING OF OFFENSES SCORING % WITH UNCLEAN DRIVES
Rank Team Scoring Drives With At Least One Penalty, Sack, or TFL Drives with At Least One Penalty, Sack, or TFL %
What is interesting is that most teams are in a relatively close spot on each list. If you were a good offense, you were likely good in either scenario. Ditto for the bad ones. But look at the Cowboys – elite in category A and horrid in category B.
I assume that this road, like so many others, leads back to the conservative style of the Cowboys’ brain trust and how they think a punt is usually a reasonable outcome. It seems the brain trusts in Kansas City and Los Angeles, on the other hand, take this approach: “If we have the ball, we are looking to score.” That is honestly the way the league is going these days, but I have never received the impression that the Cowboys are interested in that high-stakes poker when they get “behind the sticks” or “off schedule” and all of the other terms we hear in the press conferences.
The Cowboys average 2.6 points per clean drive in a league that gets about 2.3. But one sin – be it a sack, TFL or penalty – drops the number to 1.4 points per drive. An average game grants 11 or 12 drives, making that the difference between 17 points per game and 31.
These are the little details that might not show up if the game is viewed through the lens of fantasy football and raw yardage totals, but it absolutely costs the Cowboys offense.
Again, a lot of this should resonate and make intuitive sense to anyone who follows the game. I share it with you today to quantify something we rarely see. Now we have the numbers that pound home the importance of attention to detail and, of course, asking the offensive line to win their battles more often as well as allow the offense to function properly and optimally.
With this team, every detail matters. And self-inflicted drive-killers are game-killers. The Cowboys simply cannot afford to be near the league lead in negative plays.
By Bob Sturm 2h ago
There is a window in every offseason, roughly between June 1 and opening day in Oxnard, where I have the liberty to discuss some of the issues of NFL strategy that never get fully hashed out when footballs are flying. In the weeks to come, I want to conclude a big turnover study and take an updated look at the use of personnel groupings in the ever-evolving modern NFL.
Today, though, I want to talk about drive-killers. This is a term I certainly did not coin, although its origin is not very important. What is important is that every coach and most every player knows these things intuitively, but a review and an education for casual observers can really help quantify the extent to which mistakes cripple an offense.
I spent a brief window of time discussing this last winter and put it on my list for the next opportunity to elaborate, so let’s begin.
Last season’s Cowboys were unable to avoid drive-killers. By that, I mean penalties, sacks and negative plays – the sorts of things that grind offenses to a halt. These are different than giveaways, which are the top priority to avoid; since they get all the press, I figure nobody needs to be told to avoid turnovers. Drive-killers, on the other hand, end the momentum of a good drive and generally lead to the punt team taking the field.
I became interested in this years ago when a Fox broadcast showed a graphic about drive scoring percentages and what could lead them to fail. A drive-killer can be a sack, a tackle for loss, or, worse yet, an offensive penalty. The bigger the penalty, the more likely the drive is to die. It is the opposite of “staying on schedule;” it is throwing your schedule into the fire.
According to the good folks at NFLPenalties.com, the Cowboys committed an impressive 31 offensive-holding penalties in 2018. That ranks third-worst in the NFL, trailing only the holding linemen in Indianapolis and Washington by one single flag. I expected that they had committed way more holding penalties in 2018 than in previous years, but apparently I was wrong: there were 28 in 2017 and 30 in 2016. They even committed 27 in 2014, the offensive line’s glory year. 2018 is not an outlier. Apparently, this team holds substantially more often than most, as the league average is a sliver under 23 holds per team. Here is this year’s full Dallas holding list:
Tyron Smith tied for the league lead with seven holding penalties. Connor Williams committed five, with La’el Collins and Joe Looney close behind (four each). This is a massive issue for one big reason: Few teams in the league have killed more drives due to holding penalties than the Cowboys’ 20. Dallas scored on 40% of their drives last season when they did not hold, which exceeded the league average by a reasonable margin (36.2%).
But when they hold, they are well below league-average. On drives with a hold, Dallas drops to 25%. The rest of the league is still up at 39%. Heck, the Chargers have somehow scored on 79% of their drive last season when they committed a hold. That makes no sense, but it is true. That said, Dallas sat right at 25% with a hold, and they shoot to nearly 40% when they avoid a penalty. In fact, their scoring percentage is eighth in the league when they don’t commit that particular penalty.
In short, the Cowboys are a good NFL offense if they take no penalties or don’t allow sacks in a drive. They just have a tough time avoiding those pitfalls.
I tend to argue one point about penalties that I think gets echoed an awful lot. People — especially in the media — claim that penalties are a coaching issue. I probably said it myself once upon a time, but I don’t think holding penalties are an issue of discipline. I think holding penalties are often an issue of a player getting his butt kicked. Guys hold because it is their only way to keep the other dude from collecting another sack. It makes sense to me that a team that held all the time also conceded 56 sacks in 16 games.
There is certainly a distinction to be made on whether the holds came on run or pass plays, because run plays are not always about saving a butt-kicking. Pass protection, though, often falls under that distinction. This is not about discipline. This is about trying to stop a defensive tackle who is stronger than you from throwing you again. You can coach all day, and you won’t make a player stronger. Technique can help, to a point. But beyond that point, the best way to try to beat a clear disadvantage is often to hold on and hope the ref doesn’t see it. I think this can often be true on false starts. You are being beaten by a speed rusher, so you cheat the snap to gain an advantage on the edge.
I have always been of the belief that at the moment of truth for a tackle, if he has a choice to either allow a sack or to take a holding penalty, he should always take the flag. But this doesn’t account for the passer bailing him out with an evasive move in the pocket or getting the ball out a split-second before being sacked. With a tackle not having eyes in the back of his head, it is difficult to assume this decision can ever be made in the heat of the battle. But given a pause button and a choice, it would sure seem that a player would prefer the 10-yard penalty and repeating the down. It’s still a drive-killer, just not as devastating as a sack where you often lose 10 yards and the down. There is generally no returning from that.
Here are the 2018 Cowboys’ numbers relative to the rest of the league, thanks to our friends at Sportradar:
Any holding penalty: Dallas scored on 25% of drives (NFL avg: 39.4%)
Any offensive penalty: Dallas scored on 35.7% of drives (NFL avg: 39.4%)
Any sack allowed: Dallas scored on 25% of drives (NFL avg: 23.8%)
Any tackle for loss allowed: Dallas scored on 39.6% of drives (NFL avg: 32.7%)
Clean Drive (no penalty, TFL, or Sack): Dallas scored on 53% of drives (NFL avg: 43%)
As you can see, that’s a lot of numbers to consume. But the league tells us that scoring is quite difficult on a per-drive basis. If you touch the ball between 10-12 times per game, you would love to score on half of your drives overall.
The numbers above tell us the Cowboys were very poor at surviving any holding penalty, and it pretty much caused them to run on the punt team in nearly every situation. Sacks allowed were no better, but they at least outperformed the league average by a slight margin. Tackles for loss were not as damaging for the Cowboys relative to the league average, but it certainly dropped them well below their “clean drive” number.
We have good news and bad news on that front. The good news is that the Cowboys were among the best teams in the NFL when they kept things clean. Only the Rams, Saints, and Chiefs were better offenses with clean drives, which is some fantastic company to keep. The bad news is that only one team had fewer clean drives than the Cowboys.
Again, this largely points at the offensive line, given the responsibility for most penalties, sacks and tackles for loss will be this offensive line being beaten at the line of scrimmage. I don’t mean to continually belabor this point, but the truth seems pretty undeniable when you look at the evidence: The Dallas offensive was absolutely not very close to elite in 2018.
Allow me to show you the Cowboys’ standing in the clean drive department, compared to every other team:
2018 RANKING OF OFFENSES SCORING % WITH CLEAN DRIVES
| 1 | Rams | 55 | 85 | 64.7 |
| 2 | Saints | 49 | 77 | 63.6 |
| 3 | Chiefs | 45 | 74 | 60.8 |
| 4 | Eagles | 37 | 70 | 52.9 |
| 4 | Cowboys | 27 | 51 | 52.9 |
| 6 | Panthers | 34 | 70 | 48.6 |
| 7 | Ravens | 35 | 73 | 47.9 |
| 8 | Giants | 33 | 69 | 47.8 |
| 9 | Falcons | 32 | 68 | 47.1 |
| 10 | Bengals | 27 | 58 | 46.6 |
| 11 | Colts | 39 | 85 | 45.9 |
| 12 | Buccaneers | 37 | 81 | 45.7 |
| 13 | Packers | 31 | 68 | 45.6 |
| 14 | 49ers | 29 | 64 | 45.3 |
| 15 | Texans | 32 | 71 | 45.1 |
| 16 | Seahawks | 29 | 67 | 43.3 |
| 17 | Bears | 32 | 74 | 43.2 |
| 18 | Browns | 38 | 89 | 42.7 |
| 19 | Patriots | 37 | 89 | 41.6 |
| 20 | Steelers | 37 | 91 | 40.7 |
| 21 | Titans | 26 | 65 | 40.0 |
| 21 | Chargers | 32 | 80 | 40.0 |
| 23 | Dolphins | 27 | 68 | 39.7 |
| 24 | Broncos | 32 | 89 | 36.0 |
| 25 | Raiders | 23 | 65 | 35.4 |
| 26 | Vikings | 29 | 85 | 34.1 |
| 27 | Redskins | 16 | 47 | 34.0 |
| 28 | Lions | 24 | 71 | 33.8 |
| 29 | Bills | 26 | 79 | 32.9 |
| 30 | Jets | 26 | 82 | 31.7 |
| 31 | Cardinals | 19 | 78 | 24.4 |
| 32 | Jaguars | 18 | 75 | 24.0 |
| NFL TOTAL | 1013 | 2358 | 43% |
That’s right; the Dallas Cowboys had the fourth-best offense in the NFL when they cut out the penalties and sacks.
We know about clean drives. I guess that means the list below is made up of unclean drives. Which teams could overcome their problems and mistakes? What team could convert a 1st-and-20 like it is no big deal?
2018 RANKING OF OFFENSES SCORING % WITH UNCLEAN DRIVES
| 1 | Rams | 45 | 96 | 46.9 |
| 2 | Steelers | 40 | 90 | 44.4 |
| 3 | Chiefs | 38 | 91 | 41.8 |
| 4 | Colts | 40 | 100 | 40.0 |
| 5 | Patriots | 37 | 93 | 39.8 |
| 6 | Seahawks | 43 | 114 | 37.7 |
| 7 | Chargers | 43 | 115 | 37.4 |
| 8 | Falcons | 36 | 98 | 36.7 |
| 9 | Lions | 37 | 101 | 36.6 |
| 10 | Giants | 37 | 104 | 35.6 |
| 11 | Bears | 38 | 109 | 34.9 |
| 12 | Saints | 34 | 98 | 34.7 |
| 13 | Dolphins | 30 | 91 | 33.0 |
| 14 | Bengals | 35 | 107 | 32.7 |
| 15 | Texans | 35 | 108 | 32.4 |
| 16 | 49ers | 37 | 115 | 32.2 |
| 16 | Bills | 37 | 115 | 32.2 |
| 18 | Eagles | 37 | 118 | 31.4 |
| 19 | Raiders | 32 | 103 | 31.1 |
| 20 | Browns | 31 | 100 | 31.0 |
| 21 | Vikings | 38 | 123 | 30.9 |
| 22 | Packers | 31 | 103 | 30.1 |
| 23 | Ravens | 32 | 108 | 29.6 |
| 24 | Panthers | 30 | 102 | 29.4 |
| 25 | Broncos | 32 | 111 | 28.8 |
| 26 | Cowboys | 30 | 106 | 28.3 |
| 27 | Redskins | 25 | 96 | 26.0 |
| 28 | Cardinals | 27 | 105 | 25.7 |
| 29 | Buccaneers | 25 | 113 | 22.1 |
| 30 | Jets | 25 | 114 | 21.9 |
| 31 | Titans | 24 | 115 | 20.9 |
| 32 | Jaguars | 17 | 109 | 15.6 |
| NFL TOTAL | 1078 | 3371 | 32% |
What is interesting is that most teams are in a relatively close spot on each list. If you were a good offense, you were likely good in either scenario. Ditto for the bad ones. But look at the Cowboys – elite in category A and horrid in category B.
I assume that this road, like so many others, leads back to the conservative style of the Cowboys’ brain trust and how they think a punt is usually a reasonable outcome. It seems the brain trusts in Kansas City and Los Angeles, on the other hand, take this approach: “If we have the ball, we are looking to score.” That is honestly the way the league is going these days, but I have never received the impression that the Cowboys are interested in that high-stakes poker when they get “behind the sticks” or “off schedule” and all of the other terms we hear in the press conferences.
The Cowboys average 2.6 points per clean drive in a league that gets about 2.3. But one sin – be it a sack, TFL or penalty – drops the number to 1.4 points per drive. An average game grants 11 or 12 drives, making that the difference between 17 points per game and 31.
These are the little details that might not show up if the game is viewed through the lens of fantasy football and raw yardage totals, but it absolutely costs the Cowboys offense.
Again, a lot of this should resonate and make intuitive sense to anyone who follows the game. I share it with you today to quantify something we rarely see. Now we have the numbers that pound home the importance of attention to detail and, of course, asking the offensive line to win their battles more often as well as allow the offense to function properly and optimally.
With this team, every detail matters. And self-inflicted drive-killers are game-killers. The Cowboys simply cannot afford to be near the league lead in negative plays.
