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By Bob Sturm 13m ago
The NFL Draft is mere days away. The teams sitting out of this year’s first round certainly have had a hard time getting their respective communities fired up. When a franchise does not have a selection until No. 58 overall, most fans don’t even bother preparing a great deal.
But let’s not pretend they did not get something for their trouble. The Cowboys receive a player who has already demonstrated his extreme quality in a Dallas uniform. Amari Cooper has established himself as a premier NFL wide receiver and is just 24 years old. As I said a few times last year, Calvin Ridley was the 2018 wide receiver I had hoped the Cowboys would select after releasing Dez Bryant. They opted for Leighton Vander Esch instead, and it’s hard to question that decision. But what makes Cooper so special relative to Ridley is that they were both born in 1994, yet Cooper has already racked up over 4,000 receiving yards in his four NFL seasons. Ridley would be lucky to ever approach that number.
Since Cooper entered the league in 2015, here are the receivers in their twenties who have more yards than he does: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas and Odell Beckham. None of them are south of their 25th birthday, of course, an event Cooper will celebrate this June. He isn’t the best in the league, but he could rise to that level during his next contract.
Cooper’s rookie deal includes one more season, during which he’d be paid $13.9 million. But both sides would like to tear that contract up and find the basis for a long-term deal. Of course, like DeMarcus Lawrence before him and Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott after him, it would be foolish to expect a discount.
But, unlike all of those names, Cooper’s extension never felt like a matter of “if.” Once you trade a first-round pick to get a player, you are basically pledging that you plan on keeping him for the long term. This is so clear and obvious that often a new extension is announced almost simultaneously with the trade itself. You may recall that is exactly what happened after the Roy Williams trade in 2008. The Cowboys never made Williams play a single snap before announcing his new five-year, $45 million deal, one that showed the team’s commitment to finding Terrell Owens’ successor. This trade mirrored that one in so many ways, foremost among them the reality that Cooper was tabbed as the successor to Dez Bryant. The major difference: Cooper needed about one game to show he was no Roy Williams, even though so many fans and media were down on the trade after seeing the team get burned in 2008.
Cooper was a fantastic acquisition and an instant success. His 896 yards in a Cowboys uniform exceeded any NFL player’s production from the time of the trade until the end of the season except for T.Y Hilton and Michael Thomas. His seven touchdowns exceeded every player but Julio Jones. His 398 yards after the catch exceeded every receiver but Juju Smith-Schuster. He was dominant. And he did it all with a QB who we were told “wouldn’t know what to do with a No. 1 receiver, so why bother?” That proved to be complete and utter nonsense.
There was no shortage of nonsense, by the way, when the deal was done. Remember the narratives about whether he liked football and whether he could actually catch the ball?
Cooper was charged with three drops in Dallas on his 76 targets (3.9%) in a Cowboys uniform. He did fumble a few balls, but that will knock his grade down from A+ to a mere solid A.
All of that was accomplished without the benefit of time to get acquainted with his new team and by all accounts, an offensive coaching staff that was not the league’s best. Scott Linehan would be dismissed at the end of the season and the staff has been revamped for 2019 with promises of creativity and innovation. We shall see.
But the differences in the Dallas Cowboys offense were there for all to see. They were still flawed and clearly being coached to be conservative until the braintrust wanted to increase their risk when the situation was right, but look at some of these staggering post-trade improvements.
Cowboys Statistics 2018, before and after the trade for Amari Cooper
| Points per game | 20 (26th) | 22 (19th) |
| Points per drive | 1.82 (22nd) | 2.09 (13th) |
| 3rd Down % | 31.9% (29th) | 48.4% (1st) |
| Pass Yards Per game | 183.1 (29th) | 250.7 (11th) |
| Total Yards Per game | 339 (28th) | 386 (12th) |
| Red Zone TD % | 55.6% (16th) | 43.7% (30th) |
| Red Zone Trips/game | 2.57 (27th) | 3.55 (7th) |
| Explosive Plays | 22 (29th) | 29 (25th) |
| Sacked per game | 3.29 (27th) | 3.67 (27th) |
| Giveaways per game | 1.1 (10th) | 1.0 (5th) |
As you can see, Cooper affected nearly everything. The Cowboys’ third-down percentage shot all the way to No. 1 in the league partly because he either converted opportunities himself or allowed others better chances. Having him on early downs also ensured the third downs weren’t so difficult. There is plenty of room for further improvement, but it sure is interesting to see what happens when you actually have a true No. 1 receiver.
The one stat which did not improve was red-zone efficiency. I will write further about that soon, but it is worth noting that the red-zone opportunities did shoot up dramatically and must be added to the discussion as well. Converting 55% of your chances is nice, but if you are seldom getting chances the number can be misleading. When Cooper joined the team, they were in the red zone more often than almost any team in the league. That’s an important consideration.
(Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)
So the questions about Amari Cooper are not whether the Cowboys are keeping him or whether he can help them improve. They will clearly keep him and yes, he dramatically and immediately improved the team.
The real question, then, is this: How much is all this evidence of his effectiveness going to cost?
In other words, what will his new contract look like?
Allow me to reprint a sentence from earlier in this piece: Since Cooper entered the league in 2015, here are the receivers in their twenties who have more yards than he does: DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, and Odell Beckham.
Here are the top current wide receiver contracts, courtesy of our friends at Spotrac:
As you will see, the names on that sentence I reprinted and the names atop this contract list seem to match up amazingly well, right? Beckham, Evans, Hopkins, Cooks, and Landry. Only Michael Thomas has not been added to this contract list yet, because he was part of the 2016 draft class and will be watching with great interest to see what Cooper (class of 2015) signs for.
The contracts below those names were signed back in 2015 or so — when Dez Bryant set the market, by the way — with Julio Jones, T.Y. Hilton, and AJ Green signing their deals. They are still relevant, but they are also working off outdated deals and are all at or beyond their 30th birthdays. They are, therefore, working on securing their third deals now, and those tend to be different (and smaller) than second deals.
Odell Beckham was able to get the Giants to break the comparable market to appease him. They jumped up and granted him a number that was beyond his colleagues and nearly in line with the “quarterback money” he talked about. Then, of course, they regretted doing so and traded him within 12 months. I question, then, whether his deal will be proven relevant.
Those other deals, though — Evans, Hopkins, Cooks and Landry — are all right around the same neighborhood. They are all five-year contracts and all range right around $16m a season ($80 million over five years). You could argue some of those players are better than Amari Cooper, but Cooper could argue that the cap keeps going up and none of those are 2019 contracts. All of them have practical guarantees between $47 million and $55 million. There has been one significant wide receiver contract written in 2019 and that is on the chart, too. Adam Thielen signed a four-year, $64 million contract ($16 million per) and he will turn 29 during training camp.
This contract should be pretty simple, really. The Cowboys should be able to get it done before the season starts and that would allow them to create plenty of room on their 2019 budget to allow for another, more difficult deal; one which likely involves their quarterback.
I would project Cooper’s deal to run five years long and total $80 million with a $40 million guarantee at signing and practical guarantees for the first three years of the deal ($48 million). The Cowboys could possibly tack on a sixth season for accounting purposes, but this contract could be negotiated over brunch. The Cowboys would lock Cooper down for his age 25-29 seasons and move on to the next item on their agenda.
FILM STUDY
I admit I could do several different pieces on Amari Cooper’s film, and I plan on another one at training camp about his expert-level route running. But I wanted to show you six enjoyable snaps from 2018 just to remind you that this offense is dangerous, the QB is capable and defenses were terrified of one false move when Amari was in uniform:
Here is Thanksgiving Day — Week 12 — and you can see how well loading the box against Zeke worked. Remember, when teams load the box, they are daring the Cowboys to throw into man coverage. Before this trade Dallas had nobody who could capitalize on that. Now, they definitely have a machine gun (ho, ho, ho). I should also point out that HaHa Clinton-Dix makes a very odd decision in center fieldhere. I’m not sure he diagnosed the biggest danger.
Next, here is what it looks like against zone backed up in your own territory. Remember when the Cowboys had a QB who wouldn’t challenge the deep middle? Maybe he just didn’t trust his receivers to make a play. Once Cooper makes one player miss he is a danger to go all the way each time. This is what you are paying for: Game-breaking ability on any play.
Two weeks later the Eagles came to town with some real health issues at cornerback. The Cowboys were looking for chances to test out these backup corners and all it took was a QB who could look off the safety at a few brief moments. In each and every case, Amari destroyed the Eagles secondary in this game for the biggest game of his career. 10 catches, 217 yards and three touchdowns. It was ugly, but also simple. Game-breakers make football look simple.
This is another view of a great route-runner who does not have to run a great route sometimes because what he does all game keeps the corner on his heels. The threat that he might break off his route has his man trying to diagnose his intention. On this occasion, he simply intends to run a Go. An expert throw puts the ball right where it needs to be and suddenly the QB can throw a deep pass. It all starts with holding the safety in place.
On to the playoffs, where Cooper made big plays in both games. This, against Seattle, was another sign man coverage should cause Dak to look for Amari every time. When he has the whole field to work with, I am not sure many corners can cover him. Seattle was not expecting this at all. A better throw might lead to a touchdown, but the throw that was delivered set the Cowboys up deep to start the fourth quarter.
Finally, in Los Angeles, we see what Cooper does against Cover 1. You just aren’t going to man-cover Amari Cooper with a safety. Lamarcus Joyner just signed a very nice deal to join the Raiders, but I would not recommend you put him in the slot against Cooper lest he get completely turned around in the open field and left behind for a touchdown.
The Cowboys haven’t had this sort of talent at wide receiver since Dez was in his prime from 2012-2014. This player is your first-round pick and he is 24 years old as I write this. If he were in this draft, he might go No. 1 overall. Nobody close to his talent would have been available at No. 27 and the Cowboys already know he fits well with this quarterback and offense.
The deal will get done quickly and easily, I assume, because there is nothing complicated here at all. They have a new heir to the throne as their true No. 1 wide receiver. The quality is clear for all to see. The trade was expensive, but there’s no way they would undo it.
