Watkins: Calvin’s Cowboys mock draft, with notes about what to expect this weekend

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By Calvin Watkins 7h ago

The​ NFL​ Draft and I​ have an adversarial relationship. For​ a wide variety of reasons, it’s tough to predict what​​ teams will do. In some cases, it’s due to ineffective front-office personnel, but many teams make the wrong picks despite qualified scouts and executives who do their jobs well. Among the teams that succeed, some legitimately go about scouting the right way, while others get lucky. The draft drives me crazy. I remember one Cowboys executive saying several NFL teams passed on drafting Dez Bryant just because they didn’t want the headache of dealing with him. Is that luck? Did the Cleveland Browns luck out last year with Baker Mayfield at No. 1? Did the Jets make the right choice in trading up to select Sam Darnold? The Cowboys targeted Leighton Vander Esch in last year’s first round, and everything fell into place for them. Is that luck or skillful evaluation?

The answers vary. But one thing is certain: Everyone studying and projecting these players is making educated guesses. Nobody is 100 percent confident.

Here’s one example: The best prospect in this draft, in my opinion, is Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams. He’s a monstrous player, and almost everything we’ve seen and read indicates he’ll become a star in the NFL. But he’s not going to be the No. 1 overall pick. Oklahoma’s Kyler Murray is the projected No. 1 pick by the Arizona Cardinals. It’s amazing how quickly everything changed for Murray. Last June, he was committed to the Oakland Athletics, who made him the ninth overall pick in the MLB Draft. Baseball is the safer sport, and if Murray had made the big leagues, his ability could have led to a long career. And here’s the kicker for me: MLB contracts are fully guaranteed.

Murray will cast baseball aside and play football, a sport where he can make millions if he develops into a franchise quarterback. And guess what? The Cardinals traded up and selected a quarterback 10th overall last season. Now it seems Josh Rosen is out in Arizona, especially if Murray is taken No. 1.

What will the Cardinals do with Rosen? My educated guess: The Giants deal the No. 17 pick and their 2019 second-round pick (No. 37 overall) to the Cardinals for Rosen. I don’t know if that’s an option; the Giants, for whatever reason, appear absolutely committed to Eli Manning for the coming season. But as a long-term option, it makes sense for New York to trade for Rosen.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, are without a first-round pick this year because of the Amari Cooper trade. I didn’t endorse the move at the time. Ten games in, however, the Cowboys are convinced the deal was worth it and Cooper is headed for a contract extension. I understand the reasoning, but after nine seasons on the Cowboys beat, I remain apprehensive.

Stephen Jones has joked that when Oakland is on the clock with the No. 27 selection it got from the Cowboys, he’s going to watch some Amari Cooper highlights.

Here’s a recommendation: Watch the Cowboys’ second game against Philadelphia last season, in which Cooper caught three touchdown passes.


The Cowboys are at peace without a first-round pick in 2019. But I don’t think they’ll deal another for a long time.

“I think I should clear that up,” Jerry Jones said. “I want both. I want Amari, and I want our first-rounder. I tried to do that with a lot of my decisions. And I do a lot of dreaming. … I would do it tonight again. To make that clear. We were that rewarded with our future with Amari and consequently want to be real clear there.”

The Cowboys have six picks in this draft, starting with No. 58 overall. Luckily for everybody who subscribes to The Athletic, our team of draft experts, led by Dane Brugler, has assembled material on nearly every available player. Brugler’s draft guide features more than 1,000 players, and as a subscriber, you can read it all for free. Two years ago, when I covered the Jets, purchasing the draft guide was the best thing I did.

With that, here’s my primer on the Cowboys’ 2019 draft: [h=3]Monday Mock[/h]
Second round: Johnathan Abram, safety, Mississippi State.
Projecting the Cowboys’ selections requires detective work. They like Senior Bowl performers and prospects who visit their facility. In these cases, they might have 80 players to choose from. Dallas drafted at least three players who visited their facilities last year, including Vander Esch.

Abram fits every Cowboys criterion. He was scheduled to play in the Senior Bowl, but a shoulder injury kept him out and he also visited The Star as one of 30 national visits. The Cowboys need upgrades at safety, and Abram would be one. In the offseason, the only safety who drew praise from the front office was free safety Xavier Woods because of his progression down the stretch. The free-agent signing of George Iloka doesn’t guarantee he’ll be around Sept. 8 when the regular season starts against the Giants. Jeff Heath, the current starting strong safety, might get moved to No. 2 on the depth chart.

Here’s my favorite line from Brugler’s report on Abram: “Plays with a touch of insanity and closes with a thump.”

Defensive backs coach/passing game coordinator Kris Richard said he wants his DBs to play like dogs and have “body bags” all over the field. Is this Abram? It sure sounds that way.

Here are some highlights of Abrams’ play at Mississippi State:


Third round: Gerald Willis III, defensive tackle, Miami.

Depth along the defensive line is important for coordinator Rod Marinelli because he uses a heavy rotation, particularly inside. Drafting Willis and turning him into a three-technique player is another perfect fit for the Cowboys. Willis is a difficult man to contain. In 2018, he led the ACC with 1.5 tackles for loss per game, and if he can just play under control, he could be an NFL starter. He weighs 302 pounds, which is fine for what Marinelli wants (quick-twitch players who get after the quarterback). Willis is considered a slight reach in the third round because of health and off-the-field issues at Miami and Florida. But he’s a good fit here. Stephen Jones said this year’s defensive-line class is deep, and Willis is part of the reason that’s the case.

Here’s some good footage of Willis (No. 9) during the 2018 season:


Fourth round: Mecole Hardman, wide receiver, Georgia.

The Cowboys love drafting wide receivers. After selecting Dez Bryant in 2010, the Cowboys drafted a wide receiver in eight of the next 10 drafts, including four in the past two seasons. Of those players, Dwayne Harris (sixth round, 2011), Terrance Williams (third round, 2013) and quite possibly Michael Gallup (third round, 2018) emeged as quality players. With the departure of Cole Beasley, the Cowboys lost a slot receiver and a quality return man. Hardman has the potential to move into that role. He has played only 27 games at wide receiver because he was recruited to play cornerback out of high school. He’s extremely fast (4.3-second 40-yard dash at the combine) and smart, considering he’s also played quarterback in high school and cornerback his freshman season at Georgia before moving to a third position. Hardman finished eighth in FBS punt return average (11.8) and averaged 25.3 yards on kickoff returns. Hardman has a great deal of potential but probably won’t make an impact until his second season. With uncertainty at the position behind long-term starters Cooper and Gallup, Hardman would have plenty of opportunities to make his mark.

This is Hardman’s 40-yard burst at the combine. Listen to what he says after the run:


Fourth round (compensatory): Jace Sternberger, tight end, Texas A&M

Jason Witten will enter the 2019 season No. 1 on the depth chart, though his role is expected to diminish from what it was in 2017 (wink, wink). Blake Jarwin, Dalton Schultz and Rico Gathers will follow, but if Sternberger is selected he has a chance to really make things interesting. The Cowboys held a private workout with Sternberger to gain more insight into his skill set. He played just one season at Texas A&M, catching 49 passes for 837 yards with 10 touchdowns. Sternberger is a good route runner, based on what several scouts have said, but he needs more work as an inline blocker. He’s 6-4 and 251 pounds but needs to get stronger. It’s possible he’s gone before this pick, but if he’s available, the Cowboys should be interested.


Fifth round: Chuma Edoga, tackle, USC.

The Cowboys have an elite offensive line that improves with the return of center Travis Frederick. Finding younger depth is important, and adding Edoga as a possible swing tackle could work here. Veteran swing tackle Cameron Fleming isn’t going anywhere; he signed a two-year contract this offseason. Edoga needs to get stronger, much like Connor Williams. Edoga played both tackle spots at USC and is athletic enough to play left tackle. He earned practice player of the week during the Senior Bowl, and the Cowboys take note of such things.

Here’s Edoga’s combine workout:


Seventh round: Michael Dogbe, defensive end, Temple.

As we’ve stated, depth is key to the Cowboys’ defensive line. If Dogbe is available in the seventh round, they need to snag him. He played every position along the defensive line at Temple and projects as a defensive end in the pros. Dogbe wasn’t invited to the NFL Scouting Combine, but that shouldn’t deter someone from giving him a chance. He did play in the East-West Shrine game and measured pretty well at his pro day. Dogbe tallied 34 bench-press reps; if invited to the combine, that would have been third-best among defensive linemen. It will be interesting to see if he’s around in the seventh round after a strong pro day elevated his stock.

Dogbe is the playmaker wearing No. 9 in these highlights:

[h=3]Trading up[/h]
It’s unlikely the Cowboys trade into the first round. It’s hard to rule out; drafts are unpredictable. But if the Cowboys do move from No. 58, it will likely be by only a few slots. I can’t see the team moving down unless several of the safeties they like are available.

“Again, you’d have to go where you are and what the circumstances are,” Jerry Jones said. “You can never tell. Someone might call and offer you the one some place for something you think was worth it in terms of next year.” [h=3]Drafting a running back[/h]
In our mock draft, we had the team draft two defensive linemen, a safety, a wide receiver, a tight end and a swing tackle. What about running back? Ezekiel Elliott is expected to play 85 to 95 percent of the offensive snaps. Finding a backup running back is among the team’s priorities. Damien Harris from Alabama and Tony Pollard from Memphis visited The Star. Texas A&M’s Travyeon Williams met with the Cowboys at the combine. It seems doubtful that the Cowboys would use a second- or third-round pick on a running back, with those slots normally held for potential starters.

“At the end of the day you worry about what you do if Zeke’s not 100 percent,” Stephen Jones said. “Certainly, he’s rare. You want to get him as many touches as you can, but it’s also a long season and we’re going to obviously be looking, whether we get it done through the draft or whether we get it done in free agency, we’re going to be looking to upgrade there in terms of what we have behind Zeke.” [h=3]The worst draft in a long time[/h]
This is the first time since 2009 the Cowboys do not hold a first-round pick. If you look back on that magical group, it probably goes down as one of the league’s worst in the past 10 years. Of the 12 picks, four were out the league by 2010, two failed to make the squad, and two more were done by 2011.

Tight end John Phillips, a sixth-round pick, did play 120 NFL games in his career. Nobody else fared particularly well. The Cowboys traded away their first-round pick to acquire Roy Williams from the Lions the previous year. Dallas also got out of the second round, trading their selection to Buffalo for third- and fourth-round picks.

Here is the memorable (for all the wrong reasons) 2009 draft class:
3Jason WilliamsLinebackerWestern Illinois
3Robert BrewsterTackleBall State
4Stephen McGeeQuarterbackTexas A&M
4Victor ButlerLinebackerOregon State
4Brandon WilliamsLinebackerTexas Tech
5DeAngelo SmithCornerbackCincinnati
5Michael HamlinSafetyClemson
5David BuehlerKickerUSC
6Stephen HodgeLinebackerTCU
6John PhillipsTight endVirginia
7Mike MickensCornerbackCincinnati
7Manuel JohnsonWide receiverOklahoma
Round Player Position School

On a personal note, I’m Facebook friends with Buehler. He’s a good guy.
 
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