Sturm: Cowboys Draft Digest, Volume 12 - Examining Cowboys clues and five prospects linked to the team

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By Bob Sturm Apr 18, 2019

Each week during the buildup to the NFL Draft, we will take a look at around five prospects. The hope is to cover what we perceive as the very best players in this spring’s draft, as well as the Dallas Cowboys’ positions of greatest need in the first three rounds, using about 200 snaps of the most recent college tape from each of the prospects. I am certainly not an NFL scout, but I have found over the years that much can be learned from dedicating a few hours to each player and really studying how he might fit at the next level. With a little luck, we will be plenty familiar with the options when the draft arrives in late April.

Here we are at the final group of five draft prospects. I aspired to write 60 full player profiles, and today we offer you prospects No. 56-60. After 12 weeks of grinding, we finally made it. I am surely no Dane Brugler, but I did the best I could.

I always want to keep the final grouping flexible to sweep up what’s left. If the objective of this entire 12-week project is to know the players the Cowboys are considering in the first three rounds (top 100 picks) then I had to use these last five markers as “calculated guesses.”

For that, we look at team needs and the visit lists.

If you are unaware — and I highly doubt it, given that you are reading detailed draft profiles — each team is allowed 30 “official visits” to their facilities in the pre-draft buildup, in which they can spend additional time with each candidate. On top of that, they also look at local prospects on “Dallas Day,” and of course all of the chances to interact at other approved instances like the NFL Combine and collegiate Pro Days.

This gives us a chance to collect bread crumbs the Cowboys drop along their evaluation trail. Over the last several years, the Cowboys braintrust led by Will McClay and Stephen Jones have been said to lean toward players who visited their facility.

But is it actually true?

I was talking with one of my sources inside the organization and he suggested that this reputation is somewhat comical. In fact, he said that odds are pretty good they are right in line with the rest of the league in regard to drafting from players who visit the facility.

Let’s take a look. I wanted a five-year sample to go down the list. Accuracy was an objective here, but it is possible there could be a mistake or two. There is hardly an air-tight official record. But, to the best of our ability, we believe these findings to be accurate.

Here is what happened in 2018:
119Leighton Vander EschOLB22Y
250Connor WilliamsT21Y
381Michael GallupWR22Y
4116Dorance ArmstrongDE21N
4137Dalton SchultzTE22N
5171Mike WhiteQB23N
6193Chris CovingtonLB22N
6208Cedrick WilsonWR22N
7236Bo ScarbroughRB21N
3 of 9
Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Visitor?

Last year, the top three picks were all brought in. None of the Day 3 guys were, though. So three of nine.

2017:
128Taco CharltonDE22Y
260Chidobe AwuzieCB22Y
392Jourdan LewisCB22N
4133Ryan SwitzerWR22N
6191Xavier WoodsS22Y
6216Marquez WhiteCB22N
7228Joey IvieDT22N
7239Noah BrownWR21N
7246Jordan CarrellDT23N
3 of 9
Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Visitor?

Interesting. Three of nine once again, with the top two being brought in.

Here is the famous 2016 draft class:
14Ezekiel ElliottRB21Y
234Jaylon SmithOLB21N
367Maliek CollinsDT21N
4101Charles TapperDE23N
4135Dak PrescottQB23Y
6189Anthony BrownCB22N
6212Kavon FrazierS22N
6216Darius JacksonRB22N
6217Rico GathersTE22N
2 of 9
Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Visitor?

Well, then. Zeke and Dak were both visits, but no other selection was. I find it interesting Jaylon Smith did not visit the facility, but, of course, the Cowboys medical staff knew his situation quite well.

The reputation was surely earned in 2015, where it did seem like the Cowboys were telegraphing their intentions a bit more:
127Byron JonesCB22Y
260Randy GregoryOLB22Y
391Chaz GreenT23Y
4127Damien WilsonILB22Y
5163Ryan RussellDE23Y
7236Mark NzeochaOLB25Y
7243Laurence GibsonT24Y
7246Geoff SwaimTE21N
7 of 8
Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Visitor?

This is when the narrative was written, right? In 2015, it fell like all of their picks had visited, save for the Longhorn tight end they traded up to get.

To complete our five-year sample size, here is the 2014 class:
116Zack MartinG23Y
234DeMarcus LawrenceDE22Y
4119Anthony HitchensLB22N
5146Devin StreetWR23N
7231Ben GardnerDE24N
7238Will SmithLB22N
7248Ahmad DixonDB23N
7251Ken BishopDT23Y
7254Terrance MitchellDB22N
3 of 9
Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Visitor?

Again, the top two picks are brought in, but only one other selection was. Three for nine.

Here is the five-year look:

Cowboys Drafts 2014-2018:
20149333%
20158787%
20169222%
20179333%
20189333%
Totals441841%
Draftees Visitors Percentage

18 for 44, 41%. They seem less reliant on visits than their reputation suggests. However, if you look strictly at “top 100” picks on Days 1 and 2 of the draft, 11 of 14 were brought in for a staggering 78%.

We did the same research for the Cowboys’ NFC East colleagues.

NFC East Drafts, 2014-2018:
Eagles341750%
Cowboys441841%
Giants31619%
Redskins4349%
Draftees Visitors Percentage

The Eagles — even though their management has changed over these five years — have an even higher percentage. Meanwhile, the New York and Washington (two teams who are not exactly great at drafting) barely correlate at all to their visit lists.

Conclusions found? Well, 2015 sure gamed the numbers. But a rate of 33% or lower in four of the last five years hardly suggests this is the Cowboys’ method. At the same time, that 78% rate among top-100 picks indicates it’s important to track the team’s visitors if we want to know who they’ll pick early. Our friends at Blogging The Boys keep a full register, if you want to see the full list of visitors in 2019.

I researched four names I feel are top-100 possibilities we have not already covered, then tossed in another potential name I had not covered. With the addition of these two wide receivers and three defensive tackles, 2019’s ‘Sturm 60’ will be complete.
[h=3]Emanuel Hall — Missouri — 6’2 — 201 [/h]
Hall has spent four years in Missouri. In that time, a consistent track record of soft-tissue injuries has held him back. Despite that, he also has the second-most yards per catch throughout FBS in both 2017 and 2018, suggesting that when he is on the field, he is a major big-play threat. Drew Lock connected with Hall plenty in the last few years for impressive results.



(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)



(measurables courtesy Mockdraftable.com)

Positives: Hall’s positive traits are immense. He has good size and incredible ability as both a sprinter and as a leaper. He gets behind defenses with ease and routine and gets defensive backs off of him at release. Their decision to cheat on the long ball then permits Hall to do all sorts of damage underneath on screens and slants. He runs fine routes and understands how to get inside leverage and win on contested catches. Hall doesn’t run a huge route tree, but his easy release, great footwork and suddenness off the line tell you that there is a very high ceiling here. He gets a step on everyone and can move the chains on third down with difficult-to-defend inside breakers, on which his wingspan becomes a weapon.



Hall can really make his man miss on those quick hitter plays as he does here against Wyoming.

Concerns: Missouri was devastating with him on the field, but he did miss considerable amounts of time. This has some scouts questioning his toughness and competitive fire, but that is a very difficult thing to prove either way. His route tree was limited, but when a receiver is capable of what he is outside, things don’t have to be very complicated.

Overall: I was very impressed with what I saw here and I think Hall is worth knowing for more reasons than merely his appearance on the Cowboys’ visitor list. How he would fit with the current group of Cowboys receivers is a question, as he doesn’t seem to offer much as a special teams contributor, but we will leave that to them. He brings the juice and can go get the ball deep. I am not sure Dallas is willing to draft him in the range he’ll likely go, but I have no problem adding him to my SECOND-ROUND group at wide receiver. I think if he stays healthy, he can do some nice things in the NFL.



Drew Lock would basically tell him to go deep and then throw it as far as he could before Hall would run it down and always end up behind the DB.

[h=3]Mecole Hardman — Georgia — 5’10 — 187 [/h]
Hardman is a really interesting prospect, as another Georgia cornerback recruit who was a very fine QB in high school. He flipped positions and has been a rather quick study as a slot receiver for the Bulldogs over the last few years. He also earned himself a visit to Frisco in the buildup to this draft. He ran a rather absurd 4.33 40-yard dash at the combine and definitely offers the ability to help out with your return game as well.



(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)



Positives: It all starts with his speed. Hardman can really run, as you would expect of anyone with his “track star” reputation. He has plenty of juice and he needs it, because he isn’t very big. This gives him the chance to go vertical out of the slot, which is becoming more and more of a weapon in today’s game against Cover 3 defenses. Hardman is quite deadly on crossers, too. He is very agile with decent enough hands, and when you sprinkle in his return game and his confidence level, you can see how this young prospect could develop into a very impactful player.



Hardman shows you some fine ball skills and hands on this out-breaker against LSU..

Concerns: He is incredibly raw as a wide receiver. I also would not call him an incredibly dangerous slot man in terms of the nuts and bolts of the short routes which should be second nature. He is not a technician, but perhaps he can be that at some point. He loses way too often on contested catches, as even on slants, being short-armed and slight in stature hurts him. If he doesn’t get separation, he rarely catches the ball. There is much work to be done.

Overall: I definitely see the intrigue in an ascending prospect with the speed and juice Hardman brings to the table, but I wouldn’t count myself in the group blown away by his prospects. I’ve assignd him a THIRD-FOURTH ROUND grade.



Hardman can definitely win matchups across the middle with the 4.3 speed showing itself in space.


[h=3]Trysten Hill — Central Florida— 6’2 — 308 [/h]
A very fine 2018 put Hill on the map in his junior year, and he then elected to forego his senior season and head to the NFL. He just turned 21 years old and does plenty of what the Cowboys look for in defensive line prospects. He can play both inside and outside and also is known for a high level of motor and effort in his play.



(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)



Positives: When I look at Trysten Hill, I see plenty to like. He is really athletic, twitchy, and moves very well for a man his size. He knows what he is doing and that is evident in watching him play. He looks like a potential 3-technique but offers versatility beyond that for sure. He is going to get better as he continues to learn at the next level. If isolated against guards or centers, he will be a mismatch. He also hustles his tail off and appears to be a gamer. I think the strength in his hands and his ability to jolt his man at the snap are uncommon.



Hill gets right into the backfield when left to a single team to stop plays right at the snap.

Concerns: There is a reason he is not mentioned among the draft’s top tier. Apparently he’s had a few run-ins with his coaches. He also produced relatively ordinary stats for much of his career. His game needs polish and he’ll have to demonstrate that he is, in fact, coachable.

Overall: There are some players I like less than most and others who I will certainly rank higher than the consensus. That’s fine, but Hill is a “Marinelli guy” if I have seen one. He is the ball of energy, uber-competitive guy who also has fine athletic traits and a twitchiness and positional flexibility that will put him right in the mix. I grade him as a SECOND-ROUND prospect and would add him to the mix for pick No. 58.



Hill as a 3-technique can isolate against guards and then dominate them with his traits.

[h=3]Gerald Willis — Miami — 6’1 — 302[/h]
Willis certainly took an interesting road to the draft. His journey includes a stint at Florida and a subsequent dismissal, a transfer to Miami, a 2017 season that is classified as a “leave of absence” and a breakout 2018 season which grabbed everyone’s attention. To further complicate matters, he will turn 24 before the regular season begins and ran a rather disconcerting 5.17-second 40-yard dash in his pro day.



(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)



Positives: Willis is a bull up front who has some initial quickness off the ball. He is stocky and a whirling dervish of activity. He can forklift his man into the backfield and often flies around the ball for short bursts. He penetrates and may be a candidate for the 3-technique spot in the Cowboys’ defensive scheme, but there is some question there. He has functional strength and decent agility in the trenches.



Willis #9 will work inside and demonstrate the explosive ability to win at the snap and destroy plays from the interior.

Concerns: This is quite a list. Willis seems to freelance and guess, which can result in big plays or leaving a gap completely unattended. He appears to tire himself out so he may only be a rotational player. His off-field and age issues must be considered. His testing scores are significant enough to scare off quite a few teams and he may only be athletic enough to play the 1-technique. He definitely makes some real highlight plays, but just as many that leave you scratching your head as to his ability to play within the scheme at all times.

Overall: The Cowboys are bringing him in for a visit, but remember that sometimes that means they just want to sit down with a player and see if they can get comfortable with his personality. On the other hand, they like a very particular kind of defensive tackle and you can see from his top plays that he checks many of those boxes. I don’t really see it enough to give him a Day 2 grade, but I would offer a FOURTH-ROUND evaluation and see what happens if he’s available for either of Dallas’ selections in that round.



Willis will get into the backfield and beat a pulling blocker to the spot to end the play.

[h=3]Rennell Wren — Arizona State — 6’5 — 318 [/h]
Our last name wasn’t a Cowboys visitor at all, but the more we look at their possibilities on Day 2 and their desire to find a “step-in” starter with that pick, the more I want to include some of the names linked to Dallas by common sense. Wren’s profile is complex, given his 3-4 nose tackle experience at Arizona State, but the Cowboys seem to like him.



(Statistics courtesy Sports-Reference.com)



Positives: Wren is gigantic, but carries himself well, has good short-area quickness and a willingness to chase. He was asked to occupy blockers while occupying two gaps and keeping other defenders clean, but also shows flashes of penetration in a 1-gap situation and is nimble enough for pursuit. Perhaps his most impressive showing was in short yardage, where he could just collapse guys up front and in the middle. Willis will not be moved easily.



Wren #95 demonstrates that he can jump the snap and get through a gap in short yardage to stop progress on the scene.

Concerns: My concerns would be that it is very difficult to project him as a 1-technique run stuffer, a skillset valued less and less by the entire league and especially the Cowboys. There is some twitch to his game, but I just don’t see much of a pass rush. And while I like what he can do, I also know that in a pass-first league it has limited value on draft day when players like Antwaun Woods are looking for work every year. I am not sure there is enough special to set Wren apart.

Overall: He is an older prospect and a complete projection from a 2-gapping scheme, so I am hesitant to suggest that the Cowboys have tremendous interest. That said, the clues have been there to see and therefore we must be open to the idea they are willing to invest in a 1-technique if the price is right. I’d give him a THIRD-FOURTH ROUND grade and try to snag him late Friday or early Saturday if he falls. I don’t see enough utility to go much richer than that.



Wren here is able to 2-gap, wait for the runner to commit, toss aside his man, and make the tackle. Textbook stuff.

My Week 12 stack looks like this:

 
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