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By Kevin Turner 3h ago
Ahh yes, it’s that time of year. As the great actor Carl Weathers said in cult-classic sports movie Happy Gilmore…
Chubbs Peterson perfectly represents my feelings this time of year. Sure enough, just over a month away from the 2019 NFL Draft, the context clues begin to present themselves slowly but surely.
Last week I wrote about the players the Cowboys had reportedly met with at the combine. This week, we dig a step further.
Each year, teams are permitted 30 national pre-draft visits to their facility, during which they can work players out, interview them, conduct a medical check, get to know them, give them a tour of the facility, etc.
While the Cowboys don’t make their list official, their list of pre-draft national invites almost always finds a way onto the streets. That’s not out of the ordinary; with a little bit of personal Google time, one can easily ascertain draft visits for most teams.
What’s particularly interesting about the Cowboys is how they utilize their list. Over the years, we’ve seen Dallas predominately select players who visited their facility.
In 2018, Leighton Vander Esch was one of their official 30 visits, while second-round pick Connor Williams was a Dallas Day visitor due to attending Coppell High School.
Dallas Day is a special event held for local prospects. The Cowboys are allowed to invite prospects from TCU, SMU and UNT, as well as any who attended local high schools.
While third-round pick Michael Gallup was not an official visitor or a Dallas Day prospect, he did reportedly have a private workout with the team.
In 2017, the Cowboys’ first two picks — Taco Charlton and Chidobe Awuzie — were on the pre-draft visit list, as was sixth-rounder Xavier Woods.
In 2016, with the Cowboys picking fourth, not only did they have the advantage of coaching in the Senior Bowl, but many significant names were pre-draft visitors. Those names included Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott, who are now franchise cornerstones.
We saw more of the same in 2015, as Dallas’ first three picks — Byron Jones, Randy Gregory, and Chaz Green — were all on their list. Also on that list: Day 3 prospects Damien Wilson, Mark Nzeocha and Ryan Russell. It’s also interesting to note that they maintained interest in some of those prospects after the draft; Dallas signed former Jets second-round pick Devin Smith to a deal this off-season.
The 2014 draft featured Zack Martin and DeMarcus Lawrence, who were both on the Cowboys’ pre-draft list, as well as defensive end Kony Ealy, who was brought in last year. Depth defensive tackles Davon Coleman and Ken Bishop were official visitors as well.
All of this is just evidence of how the Cowboys typically use their official list to learn more about players they are interested in selecting with their early picks. They bring in late-rounders as well, but it’s typically front-loaded with top targets.
What can that tell us about this draft, one in which the Cowboys don’t have a first rounder? We are early in the process, but I think we’re being clued into the Cowboys’ thought pattern. Come with me on an investigative adventure.
The Cowboys’ visit list is unofficial, but check out this report from the NFL Network’s Bobby Belt.
Whoa! I have a second-round grade on Rapp, but I haven’t spent a lot of time thinking he would be available at pick #58. In fact, Dane Brugler lists him as his 29th-ranked prospect in his latest Top 100, which was unveiled last week.
We’ll have more on Rapp in a minute, but let’s check out some visitors.
Let’s unpack this.
Ferguson is the all-time sack leader in Division I college football history and Dane’s 49th ranked prospect. Abram is a very talented strong safety ranked 37th on Dane’s prospect list. Meanwhile, Willis is a Day 3 prospect who I’m not incredibly high on, but I can see why the Cowboys might be interested in him as a developmental player on the defensive line. He has some off-the-field questions as well, which might be easier to get to the crux of in a pre-draft visit setting.
You can read all about Jonathan Abram here; I wrote about him in detail last week.
Among their first four reported national pre-draft visits, three of the players are not expected to drop to pick 58. I’d guess Abram, Ferguson, and Rapp would be selected closer to 30 than 60.
Knowing that the Cowboys have a solid roster and two fourth-round picks to go with their third-rounder at pick #90, could Dallas be thinking about moving up to grab a player they need who might not make it to them at No. 58?
Let’s take a look at Jimmy Johnson’s trade value chart to see how far Dallas can move up.
Teams use different variations of this chart, but it at least gives us a basic idea of what the Cowboys will look at.
If the Cowboys combined their second-round pick (No. 58) with their third-round pick (No. 90) they could theoretically rise to the middle of the second round; somewhere around the 44th selection.
To me, the 44th slot would almost assure Dallas of getting one of Abram, Ferguson or Rapp.
Just for fun, let’s say they wanted to keep their third-round selection. Giving up their first fourth-rounder at pick #129 would only vault them four spots to No. 54. The latter fourth-rounder (No. 136) would leave them picking 55th based on Johnson’s trade value chart.
If the Cowboys were to combine both fourth-rounders with their own second-round pick, they might be able to get up to around the 50th selection.
The options are there, and Dallas has the capital to move up a little bit to get their player if they are truly enamored with Abram, Ferguson, or Rapp. The entire decision comes down to one question: “Is it worth it?”
I linked to my Abram report earlier, so let’s talk about Rapp and Ferguson.
Taylor Rapp would upgrade the strong safety position in Dallas, as he would immediately take over for Jeff Heath. A very good anticipatory player, Rapp is better against the run than against the pass, but does possess enough coverage ability that he can be trusted to mix it up with Xavier Woods if the Cowboys needed to disguise coverage schemes. A three-year starter at Washington, Rapp is a sure tackler with great football IQ who takes good angles to the football. Rapp is one of the safest prospects in this draft, and someone who I could easily see being a starter for a long time. I graded him as a second-round player and I think he’s the second-best safety in the draft behind Nasir Adderly of Delaware.
Jaylon Ferguson is a defensive end from Louisiana Tech who had seasons of 6, 14.5, 7 and 17.5 sacks at Louisiana Tech.
(Editor’s note: -double checks- yep, those are real numbers. Good grief)
Ferguson was not allowed to work out at the combine. The NFL Network’s Ian Rappoport and Tom Pelissero reported that Ferguson’s invite to Indianapolis was rescinded in the middle of February after the NFL’s background check on Ferguson revealed that he was convicted of simple battery during a fight at McDonald’s in his freshman year. Luckily for teams, he’ll work out at Louisiana Tech’s pro day on March 19th.
We’ll see how he tests out, but on tape Ferguson doesn’t appear to be a flexible edge rusher. He’s more of an old-school rusher, using the push-pull technique as his signature move. He’s strong enough to control the offensive tackle because he’s so good with his hands, and he plays with violence at the point of attack. He’s able to set the edge against run plays as well, and figures to be an immediate starter for teams desperate to add a pass rusher. Ferguson’s production is impossible to ignore. His traits might not jump out, but the guy knows how to take down a quarterback They are different players, but the NFL slept on Auburn’s Carl Lawson a few years back, as he fell to the fourth-round despite being an incredibly productive college pass-rusher.
If the Cowboys are truly intrigued by him, I can’t help but hypothesize that they would consider a trade up. Especially considering the uncertainty around DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory.
Keep in mind we’ve only heard about four visits. It’s possible the Cowboys are simply doing their homework. But the early findings were interesting enough to discuss. The next few weeks will give us a little more evidence about what the Dallas front office is pondering. They could go in a ton of different directions; even though the Cowboys don’t have a first-round selection, I’m getting the vibe they are combing over each and every scenario to add a starting-caliber player through the draft. As the legendary actor Samuel L. Jackson once said in the 1993 blockbuster hit Jurassic Park, “hold on to your butts.”
