Sturm: The largest contract quandary in Cowboys history - How does Dallas approach a Dak Prescott extension?

Cotton

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By Bob Sturm 6h ago

I​ promised​ to get to​ a very important topic early in​ the offseason but then pushed it off for a few​​ weeks. Honestly, how much more can be said about the question of a Dak Prescott contract extension?

Evidently, plenty.

With each passing week, the noise around the Cowboys QB entering his fourth year intensifies. Despite thinking that this team has more pressing matters — DeMarcus Lawrence’s free agency comes to mind — perhaps we are deluding ourselves. There is no bigger issue than the biggest contract in franchise history.

Yes, there are still loyal and lifelong Cowboys fans who still question whether Prescott is actually a good quarterback at all. I think it is probably a waste of time at this point to try to convince them any longer when the guy has made 51 NFL starts while upholding a high standard. If they are not sure, they aren’t going to be swayed.

He has absolutely reached any reasonable ceiling for his expectations from his draft position and contract, and has therefore earned his next contract and his spot as the Cowboys starting QB for the foreseeable future. Again, if these early paragraphs are in question to any reader, this entire piece will likely be an unpleasant read. Prescott has not only justified his present status, but certainly secured his future with this organization if the price is right. I think this is now the type of view that 32 of 32 general managers would agree upon. Assuming his monetary ask is reasonable, no team is going to turn the page on a healthy and mature 25-year old QB who has won 33 of his 51 NFL starts under the pressure of the hottest seat in the NFL in his first three seasons. I have said it before and I will say it again; find me any comparable QB at this spot in his NFL career — one who has both similar stats and similar team accomplishments through 50 career starts — who did not receive a massive extension offer from his organization. I submit that is an impossible challenge. It simply has never happened.

From there, the devil is in the details, as Jerry Jones always loves to say. Finding the right deal is now the discussion, not whether looking for a deal is the right idea. I think enough of the football public agrees on this point, so I will stop arguing phase one after walking you through the facts below. Then, let’s move back into the discussions of phase two.

Back in December, I spent a considerable amount of time on this topic – including trying to calm those who weren’t sure about his contract at all. But the season had reached its stretch run, and that essay came at the tail end of a piece from a Week 13 mailbag (which might not have been as widely read as a piece like this), so forgive me if I basically run you through my position from then, with updates to Prescott’s statistics. When we are done there we will update you on what has changed since December 7th. [HR][/HR]
I feel the average Cowboys fan wants to see Year 4 Tony Romo or even Year 4 Troy Aikman before they give Prescott his next contract. The perception of Prescott has never been to grade him by “fourth-round QB standards,” but rather by “Cowboys QB legend standards,” even if that isn’t done fairly. The focus on Prescott’s performances on Twitter, sports radio, or even amongst friends amounts to tearing down the 3-4 plays each game that are not done correctly. Yes, he does miss an open receiver or an occasional huge throw. There is no disputing these claims. When grading the quarterbacks in the league today (or in the history of this franchise), it is very fair to say he does not measure up to their high levels within 36 months of his career starting. He is not (and may never be) an A+ Quarterback. He is likely not A- or B+ either. But he is certainly a B- quarterback, and about 100% of the time, you re-sign your young B- quarterbacks. Even if you are a blessed franchise that can remember having someone better once upon a time.

This is a simple question of supply and demand. You demand a better QB than your young star. But the supply this spring will offer you a chance to compete for the services of Teddy Bridgewater, Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, or maybe Sam Bradford or Robert Griffin III. In each case, they will have their own issues. Bridgewater is the only one of comparable age, and he comes with massive health concerns and a contract that will likely either be another one-year prove it deal or will cost you the going rate of an NFL starting QB just to get in the bidding with the other teams that need a “QB1.” The other quarterbacks are all short-term stopgaps, players who are not the solution to anyone looking for their Romo/Aikman dream. Fans who are unhappy with Prescott would need roughly one play to tire of Sam Bradford’s act.

In other words, there is no available supply of young, gifted quarterbacks, which often leads people to seek a solution through the draft. As I have stated a number of times, if you wanted to find a quarterback through the draft, you should have used the 2015 disaster as your opportunity to secure Jared Goff or Carson Wentz. When the Cowboys wanted a running back to pair with Tony Romo and deluded themselves in April of 2016 into thinking Romo still had “five good years,” that ship sailed even though they were sitting right there at the top of the draft. The Eagles made two massive moves to grab Wentz when the Cowboys likely could have had him for a phone call and their 2017 first-rounder — at the most. They passed, and so did that opportunity to grab the finest prospect in the land with your highest pick in 25 years. Unless you have another three-win season in you, that top-five pick is tough to get.

“So, Bob, we will just find our QB in the middle of the 2020 first round!”

Unlikely. Since 2001, there have been 28 first-round pick QBs outside the top five. That group includes Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers. Beyond them, the three best QBs in that group are Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler and Ryan Tannehill. All three are available right now if you want to pay them $20 million per season to be worse than the guy you have. I would not advise that. But let’s get back to the sample: 28 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round outside of the top five picks, and 25 of them are ranked somewhere between Jay Cutler and… Brandon Weeden. Yes, you can tell me that Russell Wilson is out there somewhere. That’s true. But we are talking about 10% as the high-end probability — and realistically, a 5% shot of drafting a starter better than your current quarterback — even if you use one of your very best picks.

Prescott does miss throws and he does take ill-advised sacks. He plays the single most difficult position in all of sports in the most high-profile situation, as QB of the Dallas Cowboys. He is not going to pass every test with a 100% grade, or even a 90. His standard is somehow twice as high as Tony Romo’s was, which must be because Romo followed several years of the Cowboys wandering through the QB wilderness, while Prescott was accused of being a part of a fan-fiction conspiracy to take Romo’s job and dream from him in 2016. Romo was your sainted mother and Prescott was dad’s young, new girlfriend, who he brought home right after he left mom.

I understand I cannot change the “affairs of the heart” feelings that are inside you. But I can at least offer you some incredible and indisputable facts:
  • Here is the full and complete list of all-time quarterbacks who are responsible for more combined passing and rushing touchdowns in their first three NFL seasons than Prescott’s 85: Dan Marino (100), Andrew Luck (98), Cam Newton (92), Peyton Manning (88), Andy Dalton (87), and Jeff Garcia at age 29 (87). We can argue how many of these QBs are great or Hall-of-Fame caliber, but in the modern NFL, their franchises could not wait to re-sign them when their rookie deals expired. Keep in mind, this is on a team with Ezekiel Elliott acting as a touchdown machine. Prescott has still produced an unreal 85 touchdowns in three seasons with either his arm or his legs.
  • Here is the full and complete list of all-time quarterbacks with more regular-season wins in their first three NFL seasons than Prescott’s 32: Russell Wilson (36), Dan Marino (33), Andrew Luck (33), and Matt Ryan (33). Again, we can argue about how their careers have turned out, but in every single case, the teams counted it a pleasure to keep them and pay them the going rate.
  • Among those two lists above, here is the list of every quarterback in NFL history with more touchdowns and wins than Dak Prescott who could also boast an interception rate lower than Dak’s 1.7%: NONE. Russell Wilson was the closest at 2.1% through three seasons. So Prescott produces touchdowns at a very high rate; seventh all-time for QBs at his level of experience. He also helped produce wins at a very high rate; fifth all time. He also throws the ball to the other team at a lower rate than anyone on these lists.
He is productive offensively, plays winning football and doesn’t make the killer mistake. Meanwhile, you are A) focused on the three bad plays a game that he misses and B) are uncertain whether he is worth your time as he reaches the prime of his career and now has these years of invaluable experience under his belt?

I must be the crazy one here, because this all seems very clear to me. Yet I feel like I am in the minority based on the feedback I receive sometimes.

The conclusion to question No. 1 is simple. Of course, you keep him.

Now, what do you offer that compels Prescott to sign without crippling the rest of the team? As we have established, he has “earned” a hefty deal. If he hit the open market, you would see his value. It would be substantial.

The idea of franchising Prescott in 2020 and making him continue to prove itdoes not appeal to me, because I want to get him at a rate that the team can live with in the long term. Once you place the franchise tag on a quarterback, you destroy any chance of that. You will now pay him at the top of the pay scale or lose him in short order. It simply never works out for a franchise to tag their own young QB, which is why you almost never see it.

Further, you want to make the deal this spring, because you have the leverage of 2019, the usefulness of that year in building a new contract, and do not allow the market to change with additional new QB deals around the league setting precedents.

Let’s establish the tiers of the QB contract world. The bottom of the “top five” QB deals is $27 million per year (Matthew Stafford). The bottom of the “top 10” is 22.1 million, which will be paid to new Denver Bronco Joe Flacco. The bottom of the “top 15” is $20.7 million — Cam Newton. After that, it falls quickly to Tom Brady’s short deal ($20.5 million), Ryan Tannehill’s $19.2 million, Case Keenum’s short deal in Denver for $18 million, Blake Bortles’ $17.5 million and Andy Dalton’s $16 million. Many of these deals will actually expire soon, and we assume that there will soon be no starters below $20m a year outside their rookie deals.

Back in December, I proposed a deal on my radio show that I believe the Cowboys would do today and that Prescott would also accept. I provide you the audio here so you can hear the entire conversation with my radio friends (who are certainly unsure of whether they even wanted to re-sign Prescott). I would recommend you listen; they challenge me on many points, so maybe your own concerns would be heard.

As you will hear, I proposed a five-year, $100m extension for the Cowboys and Prescott with 100% of the deal guaranteed. That means, of course, he will see every last penny. This would be the highest guaranteed deal ever given in the history of the league. So while it is a team-friendly contract that keeps him well below the Derek Carr (5/$125m) or Jimmy Garoppolo deals (5/$137m), the guarantees are actually much higher. This is not an audition. He has done that. He has the job now.

WHY THE COWBOYS WOULD DO IT: Despite the guarantees, he would cost just under $17m per season from 2019 through 2024. I would use his remaining year to stretch the deal into a six-year contract and give him a signing bonus of $60 million over six years ($10m per season). Then, maybe we shove $15m more into 2019 in some sort of roster bonus all paid that season, and the remaining $25m can be chopped up into five years as his salary — so by 2020, the Cowboys are only paying Prescott about $15m per season through the life of his deal. That allows them to avoid investing too much of the cap into your QB, keeping many of the pieces around him through his prime. You also have him locked down through his age-31 season at far below the “going rate” of a starter by doing the deal now and being willing to guarantee it all.

WHY DAK PRESCOTT WOULD DO IT: This one is easy. You are guaranteeing him $100 million, with $75 million paid in the next 12 months. He would have the largest guarantee ever given to a professional football player and while the structure may not completely be right, that guaranteed money is what a player wants. Prescott has never been given a substantial NFL check — he has made $680k on average for his first three seasons. That’s soup money compared to this deal. I assume the promise of being given this team’s QB1 job through 2024 for $100m guaranteed makes him jump over the table to sign this deal.

It is certainly possible I am not reading this correctly, but I was asked to put together a deal I sincerely thought would appeal to both sides. I think this is that.

Now, we can see how well this piece ages when the two sides get down to business. [HR][/HR]
Allow me to return you to February 19th, 2019. Over ten weeks have passed since I wrote the above piece. Since then, Prescott played in six additional NFL games in which he put up superb efforts to beat the Eagles in a divisional championship game, a clincher against Tampa Bay, an odd and heroic effort in New York, and then as gutsy a performance as you may ever recall in the wildcard round against Seattle. Conversely, he missed a few big passes in Indianapolis and was unable to figure out how to gather enough big plays at key spots to win in Los Angeles as the season ended.

I believe by all reasonable measures, Prescott did nothing but fortify his value. It’s very possible he improved it by more than a little. You could easily argue that with six more game-winning drives and four more fourth-quarter comebacks in 2018, he becoming even more known for playing his best football when the team needs him most.

Is he a technician of accuracy or the type of player pointed out as a prototype at QB clinics? Maybe not. But what he might be is the modern QB who can beat you as a dual threat and can make plays without making mistakes. Perhaps a lower-ceiling version of Russell Wilson, but given the success of both players and both teams they are employed by, what would be so bad about that?

Here’s the trouble. Shortly after Thanksgiving, I thought that $100m guaranteed offer could get the deal done. That certainly does not seem very close to what others are thinking ten weeks later. Either I was well off back then, or he has increased his value with his strong stretch run. Maybe both. Many of my esteemed colleagues who cover the Cowboys for their own outlets have released their own contract projections over the last few weeks. And they are jaw-dropping.

Bill Barnwell, ESPNRussell Wilson and Derek Carr ended up with roughly similar deals through three years. When you build in the expected rise in the cap when they signed their respective deals, Wilson’s contract amounted to 12.4 percent of the cap through three years, while Carr was at 12.7 percent. Build that same idea for Prescott and you get something in the ballpark of $77 million over the first three seasons of his new deal. Round up to $78 million and you get Prescott to $26 million per year in the first three seasons. Six years and somewhere around $160 million would be a starting point for his extension.

KD Drummond, Cowboys WireCAA could demand that even though there is an effective guarantee in place, they want the real thing in order to commit their client for the next seven seasons. With the AAV being $29 million for the year, it would not shock to see the first three years of the deal approach $87 million, all guaranteed. That would move Prescott’s guaranteed percentage above 40 percent. Our final projection for a new Prescott deal, seven years, $203 million total with $87 million guaranteed.

Jason Fitzgerald, OvertheCapSomewhere between $29 and $31M a year.

This group has clearly arrived at a consensus that the range is $27 million to $31 million a year with guarantees that are actually smaller than the $100 million I proposed.

Here’s the thing; I proposed my $100 million guarantee idea over a five-year deal to bring down the average annual value. I figured if the Cowboys used the 2019 season plus five additional years to spread out the $60 million signing bonus, they could get Prescott’s AAV below $20 million. Here is where things get important. Please check out the annual QB tag values below:



This is vitally important, and where we must use common sense and “slow our roll.” I am, at heart, a big believer in Dak Prescott’s future; otherwise I have wasted several thousand words. But why would the Cowboys commit to an extension for Prescott a year before his contract expires if the extension is going to be above the tag values?

This makes no sense to me. If the AAV is higher than the tag, then you as a franchise are apparently just signing an extension with him to be nice and agreeable. I do believe there is value in that for sure, to demonstrate your belief in your player and to quiet his critics. But that doesn’t last once the games start happening again and beyond that, the franchise tag exists to protect the team when they have a very nice player, but perhaps not a superstar. You only use the franchise tag when you wish to keep a player from free agency and are willing to pay the average of the top five contracts at his position, regardless of whether he belongs in that group.

This tag, however, would not need to be used until 2020. You still would get his services in 2019 at $720,000 (actually $2.1m because of performance bonuses added). Add the 2020 franchise tag at about $27.5 million and you could lock in the 2019 and 2020 seasons at, essentially, $30 million, or a $15 million average. If two years pass and you wish to lock him up for five more, fine. Do it.

Doing it now makes no sense, though. I understand why Prescott would want six years/$160 million or seven years/$200 million, but what is the incentive for the Dallas Cowboys when they have a two-year, $30 million deal already guaranteed to them by the collective bargaining agreement? By the way, the current CBA will also expire after the 2020 season; just like Prescott’s deal. That timing is coincidental, but it could be important in this case.

This might be a good time to reiterate a paragraph from my December piece: The idea of franchising Prescott in 2020 and making him continue to prove it is not appealing to me, because I want to get him at a rate that the team can live with long-term. Once you place the franchise tag on a quarterback, you destroy any chance of that. You will now pay him at the top of the pay scale or lose him in short order. It simply never works out for the franchise to tag their own young QB, which is why you almost never see it.

I said this ten weeks ago as the basis for the deal I proposed back then. Please know I still feel that way, even if inflation has knocked the numbers up to five years with $125 million or so. Heck, maybe even six years and $150 million. But if the deal is north of that, I do not understand the incentive of the Cowboys unless they are sure he will be a league MVP candidate within two seasons. CONCLUSION


Let’s tie this up in a nice bow.

I believe Dak Prescott is the QB of the future and I believe he’s much closer to being the solution than the problem as he enters his prime.

I also believe that we are trying to quantify the unquantifiable when we write contracts. There is a value on a player and you express that on payday. It is like locking in the rates on your mortgage. The market may move, but you locked in your price. Dak Prescott makes sense to me below the current franchise tag number, but probably not above it. You (or Jerry Jones) might say this back to me: Bob, even if you don’t like him at $28 million, the market will move and in 18 months the franchise tag number will rise over where it currently is anyway. He’ll be a bargain then!

Ultimately, I really believe that contracts are compromises. You want a deal that works for both sides. This latest round of numbers appear to be a product of Dak’s new agency, CAA, throwing out their idea of a perfect contract. The sticker prices may shock you, but just know that if most NFL stars would throw out what they think they are worth, it would often make the eyes pop out of your head, too.

The Cowboys saw value in making Jason Garrett wait for his new deal. If the terms of this new deal involve paying Prescott more than any QB this side of Aaron Rodgers, then I am more than willing to wait two years to do it, using my two-year, $30 million head start. By that point, either Prescott has found a brand new level of excellence, maintained his current level or regressed. It could backfire; perhaps he will cost more. Alternatively, it could offer clarity that maybe you do need that QB in the 2020 draft.

Again, CAA has no real leverage or authority for now. That is built into the CBA and the Cowboys essentially know the fixed costs. In other words, they have no incentive to rush to a bad deal, but if Prescott wants his $60-$70 million signing bonus before the next labor stoppage, his side has the incentive to compromise.

The Cowboys’ main incentive to do a deal in the next 24 months is the flexibility it will allow and the absence of questions they’ll hear about it during press conferences and radio shows. That has value, but I don’t think the value is $200 million.

Ten weeks ago, I proposed a deal that both sides might like. If I was wrong on where that number is, then let’s move it to where both sides smile. But advancing beyond the current franchise tag number of roughly $25 million moves it too far to Prescott’s side, in my view.

If CAA holds firm, I would say the Cowboys should let 2019 play out without a deal and see if that changes the other side’s perspective.
 

BipolarFuk

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Our final projection for a new Prescott deal, seven years, $203 million total with $87 million guaranteed.
:lol

For an average to above average passer at best?

You'll cripple this fucking franchise for the foreseeable future.
 

L.T. Fan

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I think the organization has to sign him this year if they want to keep him. They have gone too far to with him to change their mind. I think Prescott will continue to get better. His problems aren’t physical they have been mental and bad mechanics. He hasn’t made a lot of progress with his mechanics because he reverts to his old instincts when under pressure. That said he did make some progress this past season. Some attribute it to different receivers and that’s part of it but the main thing in my opinion is that he didn’t get enough preseason work to get him ready to play at the season opener and he struggled for the first four to five games. That is also coincidental with some reciever help. By the 5th game the QB and the starters were better prepared to play and they went on a streak that has to be impressive to most anyone.

To me the take away is that I think Prescott proved in the last half of the season that he could contiue to improve and it would be a mistake to start over by risking allowing to become a free agent.
 

p1_

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By the 5th game the QB and the starters were better prepared to play and they went on a streak that has to be impressive to most anyone.
For the sake of accuracy, the streak began after 8 games.
 

boozeman

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:lol

For an average to above average passer at best?

You'll cripple this fucking franchise for the foreseeable future.
Jones' idiotic ramblings about how he is going to get paid have made it a foregone conclusion. The question is how long and for how much.

I don't like it either, but it is effin' inevitable.
 

BipolarFuk

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Can someone hook this brother up with a rich girlfriend so he'll take a home town discount?
 

p1_

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[h=1]Colin REACT The Athletic: Dak deal is "largest contract quandary in Cowboys history[/h]
 

p1_

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Bayless react to Athletic: Prescott decision is "largest contract quandary in Cowboys

 

p1_

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[h=1]Doug react to The Athletic: Dak prescott's possible deal presents the Cowboys - First Things First[/h]
 

deadrise

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A couple of things: Maybe Prescott's skill set at critical times in games is as important as passing statistics. The guy does win games, and wins in spite of operating in a stone-age offensive system with a brain-dead head coach.

Prescott does not seem the type of player who would be affected by a huge-contract -- suddenly turning into and acting like a rock star. I can imagine him being motivated by the money, believing that he has to earn it.
 

Rev

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How does Dallas approach? Start with a number and put a lot of zeros behind it.
 

DLK150

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I still say don't go by his stats, W/L record and one playoff win but that's me. Pay him but he has not earned elite QB money, not IMO. Unless a new contract is really smartly worded, he could cripple this team financially for years. Is QB the most important position on the team? Yeah but he didn't get to this point on his own.
 

NoDak

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Yeah but he didn't get to this point on his own.
There's not a player in the NFL that got to where they are on their own. Every HOFer has played with other great players and/or had great coaching.
 

Couchcoach

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Dak's gonna get a mega deal, sooner rather than later. Well before the 19' season starts. And it will be elite QB money, although he is anything but elite . Some say we have to do it now. IDK for sure to be honest. But I have a gut feeling that we're about to cut our own financial throats for the next 5-6 years.
Hoping Dak proves me wrong​​​​​​
 

L.T. Fan

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Dak's gonna get a mega deal, sooner rather than later. Well before the 19' season starts. And it will be elite QB money, although he is anything but elite . Some say we have to do it now. IDK for sure to be honest. But I have a gut feeling that we're about to cut our own financial throats for the next 5-6 years.
Hoping Dak proves me wrong​​​​​​
I take it you don’t see much performance improvement with Prescott in the coming seasons.
 

Cowboysrock55

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Dak's gonna get a mega deal, sooner rather than later. Well before the 19' season starts. And it will be elite QB money, although he is anything but elite . Some say we have to do it now. IDK for sure to be honest. But I have a gut feeling that we're about to cut our own financial throats for the next 5-6 years.
Hoping Dak proves me wrong​​​​​​
The problem is that most NFL QBs making elite money can't win many games. Guys like Matt Ryan sign the mega deal and then struggle with a lack of talent around them.

Tom Brady on the other hand isn't making elite QB money and it helps the Pats build a roster around him.
 

NoDak

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The problem is that most NFL QBs making elite money can't win many games. Guys like Matt Ryan sign the mega deal and then struggle with a lack of talent around them.

Tom Brady on the other hand isn't making elite QB money and it helps the Pats build a roster around him.
Brady has a lower base salary than others, but his bonuses and guarantees put it right up there in 'elite QB money' status.

He had a 22 mil cap hit last year, and will have a 27 mil cap hit this year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/tom-brady-4619/
 

Simpleton

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The goal has to be to get him somewhere around 25 a year, that's a top 10 number (which is more than fair) but it's not a market setting number. In 2-3 years 25 a year would probably put him somewhere around the 12th-14th highest paid QB with guys like Wilson, Luck, Mahomes, Goff and Wentz set to become free agents.
 

fortsbest

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The goal has to be to get him somewhere around 25 a year, that's a top 10 number (which is more than fair) but it's not a market setting number. In 2-3 years 25 a year would probably put him somewhere around the 12th-14th highest paid QB with guys like Wilson, Luck, Mahomes, Goff and Wentz set to become free agents.
So not being a salary cap guru, I think something like this could work with what Bob proposed, to where you still pay most of it up front or guaranteed, at it doesn't make it cap killing like contracts before where they tried to push everything back and then got stuck eating it. Make it 5/125 or 6/150, whatever the case may be and have the vast majority paid by year 3 and the rest spread out. Dak isn't going anywhere, Jeruh has made that clear.
 
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