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By Bob Sturm 6h
If you were with us here at The Athletic last offseason, you know I undertake plenty of projects that are not possible during the year, spreading them out during the offseason to satisfy your Cowboys fix. While we’ll spend plenty of time looking forward, projecting contracts and draft picks, I believe that carefully reviewing the 2018 season may be even more useful.
I enjoy speculation and imagining how all the pieces will fit together as much as the next guy, but in the end, we are able to see more clearly when looking at what’s already taken place. Through a thorough examination of the team’s 2018 tape, we will evaluate and ponder what needs major improvement and who deserves greater recognition.
And that is what brings us here today.
In reviewing 2018, I wanted to answer a question that I have been asked several times in the last few weeks. Who was the best Dallas Cowboys player in 2018?
There are countless ways to answer this question, but since I am the one offering the answer,it’s not simply about being the team’s best football player. That criterium probably leads to a debate about Zack Martin and DeMarcus Lawrence, (possibly with the inclusion of Ezekiel Elliott,) and it’s one we could have every year. The Cowboys have three players who are so special that in nearly any season they have been with the team, you could argue that they are the best player; the first one protected in a hypothetical expansion draft.
Rather, I would offer the following interpretation of the question: Which player combined his special talent with a performance that most exceeded expectations, while contributing a great deal to the team’s success? In other words, who was my 2018 Player of the Year?
Offensively, I think you could argue that Amari Cooper should get the nod. He transformed this team from poor to excellent with his presence. That is as compelling a case as one could build. Zack Martin was excellent and Ezekiel Elliott was, too. Tyron Smith certainly was no slouch and Dak Prescott’s season was plenty worthy of recognition. I continue to labor in convincing Dak’s own fan base that he is far better than they seem to believe.
This team, however, was led by an exceptional defense. Kris Richard could be in the mix, but we’re only counting players. Lawrence is a dominant difference-maker, but we already knew that. I don’t mean to grade on a curve, but Lawrence did tail off down the stretch. That’s understandable, given his shoulder injury and the attention he receives, but I kept looking. Leighton Vander Esch was fantastic and has a bright future. There was a point in November where I thought he would win this award, but his December suggested he has another level to reach. Byron Jones was very good and certainly deserves consideration. Heck, Antwaun Woods should get recognition, but is a better fit for the “out of nowhere” award.
For me, this award was only going one place. It could only go to one guy. The 2018 Player of the Year award was a cinch. Everyone else either was expected to be elite and delivered, or they were not as impressive as this guy. Since I am the sole voter, I cast my ballot without hesitation. I hereby award this football nerd’s 2018 Dallas Cowboys Player of the Year Award to Jaylon Smith.
(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)
Nobody exceeded their bar like Jaylon Smith did. He helped the Dallas Cowboys go from one level of defense to an all-new stratosphere. You will seldom see a 12-month, 24-month, or 36-month improvement like Smith put on full display for all of us. Assuming this is his new normal – and why wouldn’t it be? – the Cowboys have a difference-maker playing middle linebacker for them.
Here’s a refresher on Smith’s journey from Notre Dame to stardom:
January 1, 2016 – In his final college game, the 2016 Fiesta Bowl, Smith suffers a massive knee injury that tears his ACL and LCL, causing nerve damage that requires surgery and a lengthy recovery.
April 29, 2016 – The Cowboys select Smith in the second round with the 34[SUP]th[/SUP]pick of the draft.
August 30, 2016 – Placed on Reserve/Non-Football Injury List.
December 13, 2016 – Placed on Injured Reserve.
September 10, 2017 – Smith plays in his first regular-season game.
Those dates encompass an ambiguous period in the young linebacker’s career. During those 21 months there were rumors, reports, and phone videos about Smith’s rehabilitation, his nerves “reconnecting,” and even the prospect of whether he would ever play again in the NFL. I can recall watching him in 2017’s training camp, hoping to see a player that looked good as new, but seeing one who remained compromised.
Nobody wanted to say it, but he looked a shell of himself. Usually, if a player looks less than himself, he is not thrown back in with the team. Franchises usually wait until a player is at or near 100%. In Jaylon’s case, it seemed both the player and the team were in a rush. They wanted him to take the field and hoped for the best.
You may also recall that 2017 featured some depth issues at linebacker. As a result, not only was Smith’s return rushed but because of injuries to Sean Lee and Anthony Hitchens, his role was elevated.
As you might recall, I thought the Cowboys really did Smith a disservice. He wasn’t ready, and opponents regularly attacked him. You may recall that the Rams and Packers took advantage of Smith in consecutive weeks, isolating him in space against running backs, which forced him to run in unpredictable directions with sudden changes in the path. In other words, he was asked to be a do-it-all linebacker before he was fully recovered.
That put the media and fanbase into two minds. One was very proud and impressed by the guy even getting back on the field and defying the medical professionals who said he may never play in the NFL. The other was terrified that this merciless league was attacking him at every opportunity and seeing results.
Last April, I wrote a long piece about Jaylon’s 2017 season and my belief that between Smith’s uneven performances and Sean Lee’s continued health problems, the Cowboys would select another linebacker very highly in the coming draft. Of course, a few weeks later, they did exactly that, adding Boise State’s Leighton Vander Esch. Then, in July, we devoted a Weekend Riffing to the oddity of expending so many resources on three linebackers when the sport seldom allows three linebackers to play together anymore. In other words, if Sean Lee stays healthy and Jaylon Smith fully recovers, would first-round pick Leighton Vander Esch even play much?
I was guilty of imagining a world where Sean Lee would be healthy for 16 games and perhaps my rosy disposition led me astray. As you know, Lee hardly played, with just 247 snaps. Vander Esch rolled in with such authority that those of us who were somewhat concerned about LVE were quickly silenced within a few games.
But those two players aren’t the story here. The story, and the Player of the Year, is Jaylon.
The player who was so limited in 2017 shed all of those labels in a hurry. His 2018 was nothing short of magnificent and buried any and all claims that he could not return to being the player projected as a top-10 draft pick before that 2016 Fiesta Bowl.
In other words, the recovery is now in the past tense. Jaylon Smith is a star in this league.
I am not saying he played a perfect season. We will see some plays below that were not all excellent; this is a very tough league with some nearly-impossible matchups. But, I want to recognize Smith’s season, the risk the Cowboys took, and the position they are now in because the player and the franchise believed in a return to form.
Jaylon Smith wasn’t just a good player this year. He was one of the very best linebackers in all of football. Given that people like me had our doubts in August about whether he would ever be a league-average starter, the strides he made cannot be overstated.
My evaluation of Jaylon’s 2018 comes down to more than just his splash plays. But, he made many, many splash plays. He had sacks, forced fumbles, passes defended, and tackles for loss. He made plays that helped win games and one or two we will not soon forget. As you can see below, he dramatically took his game to the next level.
Not only did Smith make more big plays, but he made far fewer poor plays. This is the true key of a special NFL player. When you are not making difference-making positive plays, it’s important to avoid the difference-making negatives.
Very seldom does an NFL player play 16 games in two so dissimilar consecutive seasons. Pro Football Focus suggested he was actually pretty solid in 2017, and a top-10 linebacker in 2018. I would argue that in 2017, Jaylon was picked on by teams until the Cowboys took him out of harm’s way and modified his workload to hide him on third downs or spots where his direction-change deficiencies would be exposed.
Whatever the case, we can simply pop on the tape. That is the best way to see what a player is doing. Of course, I might get carried away here so I will attempt to not show you all 978 of his 2018 snaps. If you want, you can watch the 2017 tape study that I linked above from last April. Then, compare it to what we are about to look at below.
If you’d prefer to take my word for it, here it is: Jaylon Smith has taken a step or three forward this year. He has gone from a hope and a risk to a clear-cut elite player. He now looks like the superstar linebacker that the Cowboys thought he could be when they went all-in on his recovery in April of 2016. They believed they might need to deal with a red-shirt year, but before his rookie contract is up, they also believed that he might be a difference maker.
I was plenty nervous about their risk. But, I will have to say, they look like they knew what they were doing.
As part of Smith’s Player of the Year award, let’s take several peeks at his year in review:
FILM STUDY
We start in Carolina in Week 1. We knew dealing with Christian McCaffrey would be a massive challenge to begin 2018. There is no easing into things in the NFL.
That first play wasn’t a great one, but it also was a marked improvement. Did he miss a tackle here? Yes. McCaffrey will make that happen. But the Cowboys put him out there because they thought he was up for it. We saw mixed results in early September. Remember that.
The very next week brought Saquon Barkley to Arlington. Again, every team in this league has a matchup problem, so the first test from New York would be to try beating Jaylon to the edge with one of the fastest runners in the game. There are no conservative angles here. Jaylon reads, diagnoses, and then hits the gas to seek and destroy. This was very encouraging.
Here is a 3rd and 11. Eli Manning cannot find anyone open so he is going to do the reasonable thing and see if he can find anything in scramble mode. Jaylon is going to drop into the end zone and then change directions to pounce. Again, this was not something he could do in 2017. In fact, we can find Andy Dalton giving Jaylon issues doing just this in the preseason of 2018!
Look at how he sees the play develop, sets his feet, and delivers a blow without any hesitation. I realize it is just Eli, but still.
How about this question: Could Jaylon Smith drop in a Tampa 2 all the way to the end zone from midfield and nearly hit the goal post against Odell Beckham? He doesn’t make the play here, but his legs are working nicely.
In Week 4 against Detroit, we see Jaylon give up a gap with a wrong-shoulder technique and get beaten for a big run. This is why I want to show you the entire season; early in the season he had physically recovered, but still needed to improve how he processed decisions. This is still very early in the season and I think he is still growing into his powers with some disappointing power run stops.
Here is Week 5 in Houston, a week I suggest turned his season on a dime. Right before halftime, Jaylon would be involved in two plays with very different feels. This one is a drop where he must chase Alfred Blue in space. It’s 2nd and 2 and he appears to be in a zone drop, but then must plant his foot and get forward to shadow the running back, who did not look like an issue at first but then slipped into a route. Jaylon perhaps drops a little deeper than he wanted, and then when Blue is catching the ball, you see Smith a bit tentative again. He doesn’t attack. He plays it conservatively. And that conservative approach bit him, as he missed a tackle badly. Sportradar is one outlet that measures missed tackles across the league. According to their service, Jaylon missed 12 tackles in 2018 (tied for 38th) and missed 9% of his total tackle attempts. However, seven of the 12 were in the first five weeks, as he missed 14.6% of his total tackles. In the final 11 games, he missed five tackles, only 5.9%. Both were massive improvements, but I think he needed to convince himself to play at a faster speed. Only one linebacker in football made a higher percentage of tackles after the bye week than Jaylon Smith’s 95.5%; Bobby Wagner, who simply does not miss tackles.
You might remember this as the play that changed Smith’s year and perhaps his career. Here is a 4th and goal right before the half, and this matchup comes down to Deshaun Watson versus Jaylon Smith. Smith made the fourth-down stop, picking up a sack and more confidence than you can possibly imagine.
This play above came late in the fourth quarter with the Texans driving. Jaylon is brought on a blitz and joins DeMarcus Lawrence at the quarterback, forcing a bad throw that ends up being an interception. The Cowboys told us in camp that they were planning on blitzing Jaylon Smith and making him a regular pass rusher. They weren’t lying. They rushed him 72 times in 2018, which was more than the Cowboys have rushed any linebacker since moving to the 4-3 back in 2013. They had stopped doing it, but Jaylon was the exception.
The trip to Washington wasn’t great. It was best exemplified by this play, where I am pretty sure Jaylon is completely lost. It’s worth mentioning that at this point, the defense was spinning in a few different spots, but Jaylon looked like he had a few coverage confusion moments and this one was one of the most obvious. Smith and Lee both go to the over-route, then the young linebacker spots the veteran and peels back to the screen to his side. It would be helpful to know the call and the specifics, but as you can see, the tape is worth pointing out. Washington wasn’t really moving the ball much, so mental busts might have been the only way they would score that day.
I confess, there was one time when I was truly frustrated with Jaylon Smith in 2018. Here is the play that you no doubt remember well. It was emblematic of the Cowboys at this point in time, and a view that perhaps the Jason Garrett regime had enough. He was not charged with a missed tackle here, because he technically did not miss a tackle. But, man, this one was bad. I think Smith thought someone else had the tackle so he pulled up, but nobody else did; and Marcus Mariota stuck a fork in the Cowboys on this play. I am happy you didn’t ask me what I thought of his 2018 right here. My opinion has changed dramatically since then.
Jaylon starts his meteoric rise at a time similar to Leighton Vander Esch’s breakout and Amari Cooper’s rise. Here he is, covering another over-route versus Cover 3. Just know this is a Cover-3 beater and it is specifically because the middle linebacker usually cannot get enough depth to make a play, but look at Smith’s range.
Here is a beautiful play on 4th and 1. There is no doubt Demarcus Lawrence and Jourdan Lewis play massive roles here, but Jaylon Smith shrugging Zack Ertz off and making the tackle for a loss of three was a huge part of the game. This is powerful and aggressive, and it shows Jaylon at his best.
This is a Sean Lee special. Wide zone to the edge and the linebacker cannot let the center get to him. You have to know the play and the angles, and then have the wheels to out-flank him no matter how hard he runs at you. Just watch Jaylon Smith and marvel at how great this is. Lee has made this play countless times over his career; we can only assume he instructed his young peers on how film study can provide that split-second advantage to recognize these plays and get there first.
This special play took place during the Cowboys’ Thanksgiving Day game. Dallas needed Jaylon Smith to play faster and several of these next clips demonstrate how he can play as fast as anyone. Watch how many assignments he accounts for before closing on Colt McCoy and then knocking the ball loose as well. Brilliant.
Play fast. Sideline to sideline. Refuse to give an inch on the goal line. This was Jaylon’s peak in 2018. Watch this play over and over.
Byron Jones did great work in turning Alvin Kamara back inside, but Smith is picked off and still has to get there on his horse or this is a touchdown. This is what elite linebacker play looks like.
This was 3rd and a mile, and Jaylon clearly got away with a penalty here after running down Kamara. For some reason, the officials didn’t call it. If they did, we don’t know if the Cowboys still win the game. But there was no flag, so let’s just focus on Jaylon’s imitation of a high-speed freight train, the way he zeroed in on his target, and then how he ended this play on the fly. His range is incredible and his arrival is purposeful. Just don’t knock the other player’s head off, Jaylon. You won’t like a personal foul and an automatic first down in that situation.
I am not going to show any plays from the Rams game below because that is no way to remember this season. But the Colts game should have shown us the dangers of getting beat so badly up front that the centers and guards would get to Dallas’ linebackers untouched. If an opponent is ever running against the Cowboys — like the Colts or Rams did this year — it is because the interior offensive line is reaching the second level too easily. The Cowboys have got to keep their linebackers clean and the only way to do that is to be better up front.
The touchdown return on December 23rd in Week 16 was just a culmination of Jaylon’s body being back on the top shelf. It was also a product of Randy Gregory and Jaylon Smith both playing huge games in which they helped make the front office look smart for spending so much time investing in their futures. That paid off on this day, and those two helped clinch the NFC East.
Jaylon’s zone drops have gotten better and better and he takes this away very well now. The Bucs tried to get six easy points in front of him and he is not having it.
Adam Humphries is a very solid, and Jaylon just runs through him with authority. Again, he is at his best when he is playing with 100% physicality. This is what that looks like.
Let’s jump to Week 17. Jaylon doesn’t really make the play here, but remember how in the early part of the season he was not arriving with force? That’s not a problem here, as Nate Solder has to dig in to try to keep Jaylon out of the backfield. He plays his gap beautifully, and then the play gets washed back to him.
This would be the best play of the year for most players, but Smith gave us so many to choose from that it probably isn’t. Regardless, take a look. The weak-side LB has so far to go. Jeff Heath sets the edge and forces Saquon back into Jaylon, and then POW! Jaylon is right there to end the play on the spot. This was a product of team defense, but Smith was clean to make a play and executed it perfectly..
On to the Wildcard round, which might have featured the team’s best work. OK, New Orleans probably was, but the Seattle game was special, too.
First, Jaylon Smith is going to be in charge of spying Russell Wilson all night. Look at this athleticism. How many times does he need to go sideline-to-sideline? This is elite stuff.
This is the same play from up high. Not only does he keep Russell from escaping, but then he knocks down the pass. You can’t do it better than that.
Again, so much of a linebacker playing wide running plays is about the recognition and reaction before the guard can get on you. Here, the right guard 78-DJ Fluker is going to cut off Jaylon, unless Smith won’t allow it to happen. How great is that elusiveness to still meet Chris Carson in the hole? By the end of the season, Smith had elevated to where these runs were simply not happening.
Did you need 27 videos to get the idea? I wanted to be thorough. I also concede that the defense and the linebackers were overwhelmed in Los Angeles. That certainly wasn’t a great way to end the season. But today is about massive gains for this organization. And I believe that the Cowboys did not receive a performance in 2018 better than Jaylon Smith’s. Especially if you consider the degree to which he exceeded expectations.
In fact, I contend he took a massive step forward from 2017, and then another massive step forward from the first month until the end of the season. I am not sure he is Bobby Wagner or Luke Kuechly, but he is now absolutely in range to close that gap further in Year 3.
Congratulations to Jaylon. What a year it was.
