Smitty
DCC 4Life
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2013
- Messages
- 22,507
Like the title says, where do we go from here? Obviously the vast majority will fire Garrett, but let's see you outline your plan for what you'd do right now to secure a long term future for the team. Let's leave out all the completely unrealistic stuff despite the fact that it would be the true valuable move, such as, Jerry replacing the GM with a real football guy.
Let's see your offseason plans. Mine:
.................................................. ............
As I said in another thread, it's a completely legitimate concern that this is as far as a Jason Garrett led team might be able to go. There is such a thing as coaches who are good at building teams but not necessarily finishing. You see it in basketball and hockey all the time. An NFL example that comes to mind (not that I'm saying Garrett is on the same level as this) is Tony Dungy. Dungy turned the Bucs into a contending team but couldn't get them over the hump. Jon Gruden came in and won a Super Bowl his first year.
I think you have to look at where the team is right now.... obviously since 2014, we have been in the playoffs 3 out of 5 years, and in fact, in the Divisional Round 3 out of 5 years. We have three division championships in that time. The other two years, there are pretty unarguable circumstances that explain the missed playoffs. No Romo in 2015, and I think everyone agrees that we make the playoffs that year, if not win the division, if we have him. And then 2017, no Elliott for 6 games and we miss the playoffs by 1 win; I think it's pretty clear we make the playoffs with him too that year (though would not have won the division almost certainly, with the Eagles peaking that year).
So I'm still not really on board for a punitive firing; but I'm willing to talk about upgrades. However, there really is just one name out there that I see currently that I'd be willing to entertain: Lincoln Riley. Again, I'm simply not going to be on board for firing Garrett without a name essentially in hand that I feel good about. I'm not gonna clean out the staff of a team who has won the division 3 times in 5 years, where the arrow is pointing upwards, to roll the dice on an unknown that may turn out to be Vic Fangio or Adam Gase. Yeah, maybe those guys are better than Garrett, but maybe not. The vast majority of new head coach hires do not end up with 3 division titles in 5 years.
But I will affirmatively go out and hire a guy I feel like is a long term, dynamic upgrade. I will go out and hire a guy I think is a Hall of Fame caliber coach, or who has good potential to be at that level.
The problem is, I don't know if Riley is willing to talk to the NFL at this point. There were 8 vacancies this offseason and not a single word about Riley being looked at by any of them. Is Riley simply waiting on a more attractive job? Is he waiting for THE DALLAS JOB in particular? Or is he simply unwilling to sign up for the grind and general thankless nature of the NFL head coaching job, where he could instead be a legend in Oklahoma by simply continuing to recruit the multitude of top athletes who flock to his university every summer?
I'll put a pin in that, if I'm Jerry Jones. 8 teams would have loved to hire Riley, you'd have to believe, and yet a whisper never came up. If you are Jones, and you want him, you are at least at no risk of losing him to another team before next season. But he's on my radar.
So what DO you do now?
Coaching wise....
I have to retain Garrett. I can't fire a guy who just turned around a 3-5 start to win a playoff game, capping a 5 year run of three divisional round apperances. The arrow is pointed up or at least flat -- into a middle of the playoffs pool. That's not awful. A couple lucky breaks and things go much further, so you are giving yourself a chance.
But I also recognize things need to be upgraded on offense, badly. I need a guy who can come in with some new ideas, and work with Prescott to get the most out of him. Linehan is out.
Some names I'd think about, not that I'm sure they mesh with Garrett, but rather because I'd be interested in the ideas they must have, due to their background, and I hope they could freshen things up here....
John DiFillipo - Has experience with the Reid system. Making a lot of QBs look like stars right now. Even though he got fired in Minnesota, that seemed like a desperation firing for the Vikings.
Zac Taylor - If he doesn't get the head coaching job with the Bengals, he's learned at the side of McVay. Can you convince him to take a pay raise and a promotion to bring some stuff here for a year or two until he does get a head coaching job?
Pete Carmichael - Saints OC, but he'll never get the credit he deserves while under Payton. Throw a ton of money at him, maybe he comes here and can market himself well enough. If he makes a star out of Prescott, head coaching jobs will come pouring in.
Todd Haley - the safe route. Familiarity within the organization. But has coached Ben Roethlisberger. Has had successful Steelers tenures. He has to have some ideas that would refresh Garrett's scheme but still allow Garrett to delegate offensive responsibilities.
Dan Campbell - another coach who will have familiarity with the front office in Dallas, which helps, but may have ideas we can steal from Payton. Currently he's assistant head coach in New Orleans, but only the TE coach. A full promotion to OC/Assistant Head Coach may be able to poach him out of there?
Gotta get creative.
Now, another problem is, Garrett is going into a contract year. Not only does Jerry not allow coaches to coach on their final years, generally, but also, it's tough to attract top coordinators if the head coach only has a one year deal due to the inherent instability of that situation. But at the same time, due to my concerns, I do NOT want to hand Garrett a 5 year extension either. I'd drive a Brinx Truck up to Garrett's house and pay him whatever he wants for essentially a two year extension (tearing up his final year, so we are only talking about being under contract for 2019 and 2020), or three years with some sort of super-favorable early buy out. This way we bring back Garrett but aren't in a situation where we can't escape him, we have a legit coordinator prospect with some new ideas on offense, who have realistic chances of being able to make something out of Prescott. We re-evaluate Garrett, Prescott, and the new OC after this coming season. Oh, and Kellen Moore is also fired.
On defense, despite Kris Richard being so badly outcoached
, I'm still on that train. Marinelli, sorry. You don't inspire confidence hobbling around the sidelines with your compression stockings and sun hats. You can remain on board as DL coach, but Richard is the new DC in full title. Other than that, I don't think I need a ton of moves to address the defensive coaching staff.
Personnel wise....
We have $54 million projected in cap space. Sorry, Dak Prescott, but you are not getting your extension yet. I still need to see more. You have a final year under contract and if you light it up and set the world on fire, I'm happy to give you your $100 million guaranteed, but if not, I'm out for cheap.
Elliott wants an extension too. Wish I could get another year out of him before doing so, but his cap hit is already 4-5 million due to his rookie contract, so I can swallow that. I was gonna give him a new deal anyway; you can't abandon a guy who led the league in rushing two out of his first three years and might be 3/3 if not for a bullshit suspension.
Cooper probably needs a new deal; or I can live with his 13 million cap hit. But since he doesn't have a long term deal, there's no sense in rationalizing that deal as "I'll pay more now to save later." Might as well give him his deal and get the lower cap hit to have even more room in 2019.
Sean Lee and Tyrone Crawford, I'm coming for your money. I don't necessarily want you guys to leave, but you are both basically super backups at this point and I can't justify your $10 million cap hits. Take actual paycuts (not deferments) or take a hike. I get a dead cap hit of $4m by cutting Crawford and $3m by cutting Lee, but given actual salary savings, I free up $6m and $7m by cutting each of them. So even with the dead cap hits, I save $13m by cutting them. Restructure or else.
Terence Williams, I save $2.5 million after cutting you, including your dead cap hit. Bye bye. Allen Hurns, I save $5m by cutting you after your dead cap hit. Bye bye. Sorry about your ankle, but with Gallup and Cooper, I just don't need you to be an average 3rd or 4th WR at that money.
So with restructures to Cooper, Lee and Crawford, I can save maybe $15m. I get another 7 from parting with Williams and Hurns. That's $22 million on top of the $54m I had for a total of $76m.
I'd like to bring back Beasley for cheap. DeMarcus Lawrence needs a new deal, and none of his money is figured into that $76m in space, so anything you sign him to reduces your cap space available, but a long term deal probably is way less than the $17m he made last year, at least up front. I'm not sure you have to break the bank quite as much either, after his relatively quiet finish. I mean, it'll still be a ton, but not necessarily Aaron Donald money, which is what it would have been if he had another 15 sack season.
Free agency:
I think you need something at TE. The obvious target is throwing a cheap-ish deal at Tyler Eifert. Yes, he's injury prone, but you have backup options with Jarwin and Schultz. But you need to try SOMETHING at TE besides hoping you can find one in the draft, especially since you have lots of other needs and are short a first round pick. Try to lure away Eifert, who the staff has always liked, and see if he can give you something. You don't need a Jason Witten clone, because Cooper and Gallup should be eating most of your passing game touches, but you need someone who can be a threat in the redzone a little more. Jesse James from Pittsburgh could be another option.
Call me a sucker, but I want Earl Thomas still. I am not thrilled with Heath back there. I think he brings some leadership to a defense that needs it, he will direct a young secondary, and be a playmaker that lacks it. He's not the final piece on defense -- that will be another piece or two on the DL -- but he will help a lot I think. He could be a Charles Haley-ish piece on an ascending defense. Have to make the contract work though. Can't give him 6 years and $70 million or anything.
I second everyone who has said we need a legit backup RB to spell Elliott. But we also need a staff that will use him, so he needs to be not a carbon copy, he needs to be able to do other things. Tevin Coleman is out there and might be affordable; but he also might not be Sproles or Kamara-like enough. That might have to be better addressed in the middle rounds of the draft.
On the DL, Grady Jarrett is out there and might be perfect, but he'll be super expensive. Not sure we need to go that route. Malcolm Brown is an attractive option. This also might have to be a "find in the draft" spot though because unless you want to break the bank, there are probably not a ton of options.
So I'm looking at:
TE Tyler Eifert (3 years, $15 mil)
FS Earl Thomas (4 years, $40 million)
Re-Sign Demarcus Lawrence
Re-Sign Cole Beasley
Bargain Hunt at OL, DL, RB, and WR for depth.
Lock and load for next year.
If things go tits up, or if you are unhappy with progression after next year (I'm not NECESSARILY saying an NFCC game appearance is mandatory, but....) you clean house and go get Lincoln Riley.
Let's see everyone else's plans.
Let's see your offseason plans. Mine:
.................................................. ............
As I said in another thread, it's a completely legitimate concern that this is as far as a Jason Garrett led team might be able to go. There is such a thing as coaches who are good at building teams but not necessarily finishing. You see it in basketball and hockey all the time. An NFL example that comes to mind (not that I'm saying Garrett is on the same level as this) is Tony Dungy. Dungy turned the Bucs into a contending team but couldn't get them over the hump. Jon Gruden came in and won a Super Bowl his first year.
I think you have to look at where the team is right now.... obviously since 2014, we have been in the playoffs 3 out of 5 years, and in fact, in the Divisional Round 3 out of 5 years. We have three division championships in that time. The other two years, there are pretty unarguable circumstances that explain the missed playoffs. No Romo in 2015, and I think everyone agrees that we make the playoffs that year, if not win the division, if we have him. And then 2017, no Elliott for 6 games and we miss the playoffs by 1 win; I think it's pretty clear we make the playoffs with him too that year (though would not have won the division almost certainly, with the Eagles peaking that year).
So I'm still not really on board for a punitive firing; but I'm willing to talk about upgrades. However, there really is just one name out there that I see currently that I'd be willing to entertain: Lincoln Riley. Again, I'm simply not going to be on board for firing Garrett without a name essentially in hand that I feel good about. I'm not gonna clean out the staff of a team who has won the division 3 times in 5 years, where the arrow is pointing upwards, to roll the dice on an unknown that may turn out to be Vic Fangio or Adam Gase. Yeah, maybe those guys are better than Garrett, but maybe not. The vast majority of new head coach hires do not end up with 3 division titles in 5 years.
But I will affirmatively go out and hire a guy I feel like is a long term, dynamic upgrade. I will go out and hire a guy I think is a Hall of Fame caliber coach, or who has good potential to be at that level.
The problem is, I don't know if Riley is willing to talk to the NFL at this point. There were 8 vacancies this offseason and not a single word about Riley being looked at by any of them. Is Riley simply waiting on a more attractive job? Is he waiting for THE DALLAS JOB in particular? Or is he simply unwilling to sign up for the grind and general thankless nature of the NFL head coaching job, where he could instead be a legend in Oklahoma by simply continuing to recruit the multitude of top athletes who flock to his university every summer?
I'll put a pin in that, if I'm Jerry Jones. 8 teams would have loved to hire Riley, you'd have to believe, and yet a whisper never came up. If you are Jones, and you want him, you are at least at no risk of losing him to another team before next season. But he's on my radar.
So what DO you do now?
Coaching wise....
I have to retain Garrett. I can't fire a guy who just turned around a 3-5 start to win a playoff game, capping a 5 year run of three divisional round apperances. The arrow is pointed up or at least flat -- into a middle of the playoffs pool. That's not awful. A couple lucky breaks and things go much further, so you are giving yourself a chance.
But I also recognize things need to be upgraded on offense, badly. I need a guy who can come in with some new ideas, and work with Prescott to get the most out of him. Linehan is out.
Some names I'd think about, not that I'm sure they mesh with Garrett, but rather because I'd be interested in the ideas they must have, due to their background, and I hope they could freshen things up here....
John DiFillipo - Has experience with the Reid system. Making a lot of QBs look like stars right now. Even though he got fired in Minnesota, that seemed like a desperation firing for the Vikings.
Zac Taylor - If he doesn't get the head coaching job with the Bengals, he's learned at the side of McVay. Can you convince him to take a pay raise and a promotion to bring some stuff here for a year or two until he does get a head coaching job?
Pete Carmichael - Saints OC, but he'll never get the credit he deserves while under Payton. Throw a ton of money at him, maybe he comes here and can market himself well enough. If he makes a star out of Prescott, head coaching jobs will come pouring in.
Todd Haley - the safe route. Familiarity within the organization. But has coached Ben Roethlisberger. Has had successful Steelers tenures. He has to have some ideas that would refresh Garrett's scheme but still allow Garrett to delegate offensive responsibilities.
Dan Campbell - another coach who will have familiarity with the front office in Dallas, which helps, but may have ideas we can steal from Payton. Currently he's assistant head coach in New Orleans, but only the TE coach. A full promotion to OC/Assistant Head Coach may be able to poach him out of there?
Gotta get creative.
Now, another problem is, Garrett is going into a contract year. Not only does Jerry not allow coaches to coach on their final years, generally, but also, it's tough to attract top coordinators if the head coach only has a one year deal due to the inherent instability of that situation. But at the same time, due to my concerns, I do NOT want to hand Garrett a 5 year extension either. I'd drive a Brinx Truck up to Garrett's house and pay him whatever he wants for essentially a two year extension (tearing up his final year, so we are only talking about being under contract for 2019 and 2020), or three years with some sort of super-favorable early buy out. This way we bring back Garrett but aren't in a situation where we can't escape him, we have a legit coordinator prospect with some new ideas on offense, who have realistic chances of being able to make something out of Prescott. We re-evaluate Garrett, Prescott, and the new OC after this coming season. Oh, and Kellen Moore is also fired.
On defense, despite Kris Richard being so badly outcoached
, I'm still on that train. Marinelli, sorry. You don't inspire confidence hobbling around the sidelines with your compression stockings and sun hats. You can remain on board as DL coach, but Richard is the new DC in full title. Other than that, I don't think I need a ton of moves to address the defensive coaching staff.Personnel wise....
We have $54 million projected in cap space. Sorry, Dak Prescott, but you are not getting your extension yet. I still need to see more. You have a final year under contract and if you light it up and set the world on fire, I'm happy to give you your $100 million guaranteed, but if not, I'm out for cheap.
Elliott wants an extension too. Wish I could get another year out of him before doing so, but his cap hit is already 4-5 million due to his rookie contract, so I can swallow that. I was gonna give him a new deal anyway; you can't abandon a guy who led the league in rushing two out of his first three years and might be 3/3 if not for a bullshit suspension.
Cooper probably needs a new deal; or I can live with his 13 million cap hit. But since he doesn't have a long term deal, there's no sense in rationalizing that deal as "I'll pay more now to save later." Might as well give him his deal and get the lower cap hit to have even more room in 2019.
Sean Lee and Tyrone Crawford, I'm coming for your money. I don't necessarily want you guys to leave, but you are both basically super backups at this point and I can't justify your $10 million cap hits. Take actual paycuts (not deferments) or take a hike. I get a dead cap hit of $4m by cutting Crawford and $3m by cutting Lee, but given actual salary savings, I free up $6m and $7m by cutting each of them. So even with the dead cap hits, I save $13m by cutting them. Restructure or else.
Terence Williams, I save $2.5 million after cutting you, including your dead cap hit. Bye bye. Allen Hurns, I save $5m by cutting you after your dead cap hit. Bye bye. Sorry about your ankle, but with Gallup and Cooper, I just don't need you to be an average 3rd or 4th WR at that money.
So with restructures to Cooper, Lee and Crawford, I can save maybe $15m. I get another 7 from parting with Williams and Hurns. That's $22 million on top of the $54m I had for a total of $76m.
I'd like to bring back Beasley for cheap. DeMarcus Lawrence needs a new deal, and none of his money is figured into that $76m in space, so anything you sign him to reduces your cap space available, but a long term deal probably is way less than the $17m he made last year, at least up front. I'm not sure you have to break the bank quite as much either, after his relatively quiet finish. I mean, it'll still be a ton, but not necessarily Aaron Donald money, which is what it would have been if he had another 15 sack season.
Free agency:
I think you need something at TE. The obvious target is throwing a cheap-ish deal at Tyler Eifert. Yes, he's injury prone, but you have backup options with Jarwin and Schultz. But you need to try SOMETHING at TE besides hoping you can find one in the draft, especially since you have lots of other needs and are short a first round pick. Try to lure away Eifert, who the staff has always liked, and see if he can give you something. You don't need a Jason Witten clone, because Cooper and Gallup should be eating most of your passing game touches, but you need someone who can be a threat in the redzone a little more. Jesse James from Pittsburgh could be another option.
Call me a sucker, but I want Earl Thomas still. I am not thrilled with Heath back there. I think he brings some leadership to a defense that needs it, he will direct a young secondary, and be a playmaker that lacks it. He's not the final piece on defense -- that will be another piece or two on the DL -- but he will help a lot I think. He could be a Charles Haley-ish piece on an ascending defense. Have to make the contract work though. Can't give him 6 years and $70 million or anything.
I second everyone who has said we need a legit backup RB to spell Elliott. But we also need a staff that will use him, so he needs to be not a carbon copy, he needs to be able to do other things. Tevin Coleman is out there and might be affordable; but he also might not be Sproles or Kamara-like enough. That might have to be better addressed in the middle rounds of the draft.
On the DL, Grady Jarrett is out there and might be perfect, but he'll be super expensive. Not sure we need to go that route. Malcolm Brown is an attractive option. This also might have to be a "find in the draft" spot though because unless you want to break the bank, there are probably not a ton of options.
So I'm looking at:
TE Tyler Eifert (3 years, $15 mil)
FS Earl Thomas (4 years, $40 million)
Re-Sign Demarcus Lawrence
Re-Sign Cole Beasley
Bargain Hunt at OL, DL, RB, and WR for depth.
Lock and load for next year.
If things go tits up, or if you are unhappy with progression after next year (I'm not NECESSARILY saying an NFCC game appearance is mandatory, but....) you clean house and go get Lincoln Riley.
Let's see everyone else's plans.
